汇丰将LVMH目标价从575欧元下调至525欧元，因关键市场依然承压。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais has lowered the target price for Meituan to HKD 185 due to profit margin pressures from competition in the food delivery sector and global expansion efforts [1] Financial Performance - Meituan's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue and adjusted EBITDA increasing by 18% and 62% year-on-year, reaching RMB 86.6 billion and RMB 11.2 billion, respectively, surpassing Credit Lyonnais's estimates by 1% and 12% [1] - The company anticipates a slowdown in core local commerce revenue growth and a year-on-year decline in profits for Q2 2025, as it prioritizes competitive responses and faces increased losses from new business ventures due to global expansion [1] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Credit Lyonnais projects a 13% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q2 2025, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline by 21% [1] - Core local commerce revenue is forecasted to grow by 10% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITDA anticipated to decrease by 12% [1] Adjustments to Profit Predictions - The firm has revised its adjusted net profit forecasts for Meituan downwards by 7% and 6% for the next two years, leading to a reduction in the target price from HKD 195 to HKD 185 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura reports that Miniso's profitability is under greater pressure, leading to a 3% reduction in its target stock price from $23.2 to $22.5 while maintaining a buy rating [1] Financial Performance - Miniso's Q1 earnings fell short of expectations, with operating profit margin declining by 4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The decline in profit margin is attributed to an increase in revenue contribution from lower-margin Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) business and a decrease in profit margin from DTC stores in the US and China [1] Future Outlook - Miniso maintains that revenue growth for 2025 is expected to outpace that of 2024, but will reassess this by the end of Q2 2025 [1] - The report indicates that adjusted earnings growth for 2025 is anticipated to exceed that of 2024, highlighting ongoing pressure on profitability [1] - Nomura emphasizes the need to closely monitor the trend of slower profit growth compared to revenue growth in the US, which has persisted for four consecutive quarters [1]

摩根士丹利发表报告指，家得宝公布首季财报后，将2025和2026年度每股盈利预测分别小幅调高约 0.4%和0.6%，并重申2025财政年度指引。大摩对该股目标价由410美元上调至415美元，评级"增持"， 认为公司风险回报偏向正面。新目标价是基于约25倍的2026年约16.65美元每股盈利预测。该行指，目 标倍数略高于目前的估值是合理，因为该股是其覆盖周期性股票中的首选。 ...

棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的气候条件良好， 预计单产为每公顷 2172 公斤（每亩 144.8 公斤），与去年持平。棉花总产 量预计为 625 万吨，比去年增加 1.4%。受美国过度征收关税的影响，棉花 消费预期偏弱，但未来仍存在一定的不确定性。预计新年度的棉花消费量为 740 万吨，较去年小幅减少 20 万吨，进口量也下调至 140 万吨，减少 10 万吨。短期观望。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美农数据压制预期，棉价短线承压 ...

Group 1 - Citi has raised the target price for China Life Insurance to HKD 17.9, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The earnings per share forecasts for China Life for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been lowered by 1% and 7% respectively, reflecting lower expected investment income [1] - The target price increase from HKD 17.7 to HKD 17.9 is based on better-than-expected performance for fiscal year 2024 [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current trends in the gold market, questioning whether the recent rebound in gold prices signifies a reversal or if the bull market has ended [1] - It raises concerns about the target price for bearish positions in gold, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] Group 1 - The article highlights a live analysis session conducted by a researcher, Steven, focusing on the recent performance of gold [1] - It suggests that the recent rebound in gold prices may not indicate a long-term reversal, implying that the market could still be in a bearish phase [1] - The discussion includes speculation on where the bearish target prices for gold might be set, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Pop Mart (09992.HK) by 9.8% to HKD 224, citing strong global demand for Labubu 3.0, particularly in the U.S. market, as a key growth driver [1] Group 1 - The strong global demand for Labubu 3.0, especially in the U.S., is expected to facilitate the opening of new stores in the U.S. and other regions, becoming a major growth driver for the next two years [1] - The rapid establishment of Pop Mart's supply chain in Vietnam has exceeded expectations, with most goods exported to the U.S. expected to ship from Vietnam by Q3 this year, potentially reducing the impact of tariffs on profit margins [1] - New products in the U.S. have seen price increases of 12% to 27%, which have been well-received by consumers, indicating that the long-term increase in average product prices could enhance profit margins for the U.S. business as tariff impacts diminish [1]

花旗：将0-3个月布伦特原油目标价格略微上调至60美元，但维持第二季度和第三季度布伦特原油平均 价格分别为62美元和63美元的预期。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley raised the target price for Tencent Music (TME.N) by 12.2% from $14.7 to $16.5, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - The increase in target price is based on the consideration of Tencent Music's long-term strategic investments, applying a 30% discount to market value [1] - The strategic investments include a 2% stake in Spotify, a 2% stake in UMG, and a 0.8% stake in Warner Music Group, which collectively represent a value of $2 per American Depositary Share (ADS) [1] Group 2 - Tencent Music's associated company allocated UMG shares to Tencent Music in 2019, with the first quarter of 2025 being a trigger for this change [1]