Demand Forecast - IEA lowers 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 722 thousand barrels per day [1] - IEA lowers 2023 global oil demand growth forecast to 704 thousand barrels per day, the lowest since 2009 excluding the pandemic [1] Supply Forecast - Global oil supply is expected to increase to 2.1 million barrels per day in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 1.8 million barrels per day, due to OPEC+ production increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that OPEC+ will further increase oil supply in September, with an expected production increase of 550,000 barrels per day [1] Group 1 - OPEC+ is expected to boost oil production in September [1] - The anticipated increase in production is 550,000 barrels per day [1]

Group 1 - International oil prices have retraced all gains since the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict, with WTI and Brent crude contracts dropping nearly 9% [1] - Following the Iranian missile attack on the U.S. base in Qatar, oil markets began to sell off, despite no disruptions reported in Qatar's energy transportation or production [3][4] - The U.S. energy companies have reduced the number of oil and gas drilling rigs for eight consecutive weeks, marking the lowest level since November 2021 [5] Group 2 - The Iranian missile strike was perceived as a calculated response, with analysts suggesting it was designed to avoid escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz [4] - The shipping costs for supertankers have more than doubled in a week, reaching over $60,000 per day, indicating increased market volatility [7] - There are concerns about potential shipping delays as vessel owners aim to minimize time spent in the Strait of Hormuz, with some vessels opting to wait outside the region [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The conflict in the Middle East may impact oil supply, as stated by the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde [1] Group 1 - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East are likely to create uncertainties in the global oil market [1] - Potential disruptions in oil supply could lead to increased volatility in oil prices [1] - The European Central Bank is monitoring the situation closely due to its implications for economic stability [1]

Geopolitical Tensions - Closing the Strait of Hormuz would escalate tensions between Iran and the US along with its allies, potentially leading to military confrontations and conflicts [1] - Surrounding countries may find themselves caught in diplomatic struggles, requiring significant international efforts to mediate disputes [1] Oil Supply Disruption - Approximately one-third of global maritime oil transportation passes through the Strait, and its closure would severely restrict oil supply [1] - A significant reduction in oil supply could lead to a sharp increase in international oil prices, creating an energy crisis for oil-importing nations [1] Economic Impact - Rising oil prices could trigger a domino effect, adversely affecting the real economy by increasing production costs and overall prices, thereby raising living costs for the public [1] - There is a risk of a global economic recession due to disrupted international trade and increased transportation costs for goods reliant on oil shipping [1] Shipping Safety Concerns - The closure would pose risks to shipping safety, as vessels would need to take longer routes, increasing travel time and costs while facing higher security threats [3] - The likelihood of shipping accidents may rise due to factors such as piracy and adverse weather conditions [3] Regional Instability - Countries surrounding the Strait that depend on its trade would suffer economically, potentially leading to social unrest and protests among communities reliant on the Strait for their livelihoods [3] - The cumulative effect of internal instability could result in a broader state of turmoil in the region [3]

Group 1 - The Thai Ministry of Energy is closely monitoring the impact of Israel and Iran on oil supply [1]

Group 1 - The focus remains on the Middle East, with ongoing missile exchanges between Israel and Iran [1] - The impact of the conflict is gradually diminishing, as long as oil supply remains unaffected, the war can continue without significant macroeconomic consequences [1] - There are initial signs that Iran is seeking to de-escalate tensions, as the Iranian Foreign Minister indicated readiness for diplomatic talks if Israel ceases its aggression [1]

Core Viewpoint - WTI Midland's physical price in the export market has reached a one-month high, driven by investor concerns over the supply situation of Libyan oil [1] Group 1 - WTI Midland's export market price has increased, indicating a positive trend in pricing [1] - Investor anxiety regarding the supply of Libyan oil is influencing market dynamics [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on May 21, the July 2025 WTI (after contract roll) dropped by $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel, a decline of 0.74%; the July 2025 Brent crude fell by $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel, a decrease of 0.72% [1] - The fifth round of Iran - US negotiations will be held in Rome on May 23. The market is skeptical about whether the US and Iran can reach a nuclear deal. Also, Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the talks break down [2] - For the week ending May 16, US commercial crude inventories increased to 443.2 million barrels, still 6% lower than the five - year average. The unexpected inventory growth contrasts with market expectations [3] - Currently, the two negotiations are progressing poorly, but trade tensions are temporarily eased, providing short - term support for international oil prices. However, the room for continuous oil price increase is limited due to Trump's uncertain tariff policies and OPEC+'s production increase strategy. In the long run, if the Iran nuclear deal is reached, oil supply pressure will increase. Oil prices will still face pressure considering factors like a weak economic recovery outlook and new energy substitution [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Oil Price Performance - As of May 21, 2025, the July WTI dropped by $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel with a 0.74% decline, and the July Brent crude fell by $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel with a 0.72% decrease [1] Negotiation Situation - The fifth round of Iran - US nuclear negotiations is scheduled for May 23 in Rome. Market doubts the possibility of a deal, and Israel may strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the talks fail [2] Inventory Data - As of the week ending May 16, US commercial crude inventories rose to 443.2 million barrels, 6% lower than the five - year average, contrary to market expectations of a decrease [3] Market Outlook - Short - term oil prices are supported by eased trade tensions but have limited upside due to Trump's tariff policies and OPEC+'s production increase. Long - term, if the Iran nuclear deal is reached, supply pressure will grow, and oil prices will be pressured by factors such as a weak economic recovery and new energy substitution [4]

5月20日，参考消息援引外媒报道，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克对媒体表示，中方提出将俄罗斯对华石油年供 应量增加250万吨，俄方愿意予以保障。为此，俄罗斯石油管道运输公司需要制订出通过哈萨克斯坦扩 大出口的技术方案清单。 报道称，根据俄罗斯政府5月初发布的政令，面向中国西部炼油厂的石油供应上限可从1000万吨提升至 1250万吨，供应期限最长延至2034年。 诺瓦克说："这是中方的提议，我们愿意保障供应，但为此需要引入具体的技术方案。" 他表示，此事涉及通过哈萨克斯坦向中国供应石油。他说："需在管道运输领域开展具体工作，详细方 案清单将由俄罗斯石油管道运输公司制订，目前正在推进此事。" 2023年，时隔四年后，俄罗斯再次成为中国最大原油进口国。中国海关总署数据显示，该年，中国从俄 罗斯进口原油超过1.07亿吨，同比增24%，约占到去年中国原油总进口量的19%。这也是中国从俄罗斯 进口原油首次超过1亿吨。 去年，中国从俄罗斯进口原油达到1.08亿吨，占中国原油进口总量的20%。俄罗斯继续位居中国原油进 口最大来源国。同期，中国共进口原油5.53亿吨，同比下降1.9%；进口金额为3247亿美元，同比下降 3.9%。 中国石 ...