亚洲开发银行12月10日发布的《2025年亚洲发展展望(12月版)》显示，基于出口的韧性表现及财政刺激 持续发力，中国今年的增长预测由4.7%上调至4.8%；2026年增速预期维持在4.3%不变。 ...

USDINR flirting with the psychological 90 mark Earlier this week, USDINR breached the psychological 90 mark, reflecting depreciation pressure since September - emanating from the recent deterioration in external balance. Heavy RBI interventions (~US$50bn via spot/forwards/NDFs) had delayed this move thus far, but the break above 90 suggests a shift in policy tolerance. We now forecast year- end USD/INR at 92 for FY26 and 94 for FY27. BoP flows stress - driven by tariffs uncertainty, gold imports and weak do ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Schnabel supports investor bets on the next interest rate hike by the ECB, indicating that borrowing costs are at an appropriate level unless new shocks occur [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Schnabel noted that consumer spending, corporate investment, and significant government spending on defense and infrastructure will continue to boost the economy [1] - Economic and inflation risks are tilted to the upside, suggesting a potential upward revision in economic growth forecasts during the December meeting [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - Analysts expect the deposit rate to remain at 2% for the fourth consecutive time [1] - Schnabel is the first ECB policymaker to explicitly state that borrowing costs have reached not just an "appropriate level" but the lower limit [1]

报告预测，若美国贸易政策不确定性有所下降、国际需求趋于稳定、能源大宗商品价格持续温和，外需 将对2025年和2026年的经济分别产生0.6和0.2个百分点的拖累。 新华财经罗马12月5日电（记者高婧妍）意大利国家统计局（ISTAT）5日发布的最新经济预测报告显 示，预计2025年该国国内生产总值（GDP）将增长0.5%，2026年增速提升至0.8%。 报告称，预测期内的经济增长将完全由剔除库存变动因素的国内需求驱动，预计今明两年，内需将分别 贡献1.1个百分点的增长。 此外，报告预测意大利就业市场将持续改善，2025年和2026年就业将分别增长1.3%和0.9%，超过同期 GDP增速。与此同时，失业率预计将进一步小幅下降，在2025年降至6.2%，2026年降至6.1%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

通胀走势基本符合前期预测。2026年商品、食品及医疗保健价格将面临进一步上行压力，而房价则承受下行压 力。我们维持整体通胀预测不变：2025年2.8%，2026年2.5%（此前为2.6%），2027年2.4%。核心通胀率预测值 为：2025年3.0%（维持不变）、2026年2.8%（维持不变）、2027年2.6%。 尽管劳动力市场出现降温迹象，美国经济增长仍保持相对稳健。我们预计在财政和货币政策支持下，环比增长将 在2026年恢复，但从结构上看，人口结构正日益限制经济生产能力的进一步扩张。 鉴于贸易战对经济增长的影响小于预期，我们将2025年GDP增长预测从1.6%上调至1.8%，2026年预测从1.4%上调 至1.9%。预计2027年经济增长将趋于平稳，维持在1.7%的较低趋势增速。 预计美联储将于12月、3月及6月各降息25个基点（此前预测为1月、4月和7月），随后在2026年剩余时间及2027年 维持3.00-3.25%的终点利率水平。前景风险呈均衡态势。若私人消费突然放缓，可能促使美联储重启更激进的降 息周期；但持续的财政宽松政策也可能迫使美联储将利率维持在高于我们预期的结构性高位。 ...

随着经济增速略有放缓，预计荷兰失业率将从今年的3.9%上升至2026年的4.1%，2026年通胀率预计降 至2.5%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经海牙12月4日电（记者邵海军）荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）2日预测，荷兰经济2026年将增长 1.3%，低于今年1.7%的预计增长率。 该行发布的月度经济展望说，政府支出方面，受人口老龄化带来的医疗保健需求增长以及国防支出增加 双重拉动，2026年政府投资增速将达3.0%，成为经济增长的重要动力。消费方面，荷兰家庭消费占经 济总量的40%以上，受预期工资上涨和消费者信心支撑，明年消费预计增长1.8%。投资方面，在利率稳 定和全球贸易不确定性略有缓解情况下，投资有望增长1.5%。进出口方面，受欧元走强和美国加征关 税影响，进口增速超过出口增速，贸易顺差将略有收窄，进口预计增长3.0%，出口增速略低，预计为 2.1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank has raised Kenya's 2025 economic growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.9%, primarily due to a strong rebound in the construction sector [1] Economic Growth - The construction industry showed a significant recovery in the first half of the year, partially offsetting the slowdown in manufacturing growth [1] Risks and Challenges - Despite the improved economic outlook, Kenya faces major risks, including the expiration of trade agreements with the United States, an uncertain international trade environment, and potential limitations on public spending due to fiscal consolidation [1] - High levels of public debt and debt repayment pressures are also critical factors hindering long-term sustainable growth [1] Recommendations - The World Bank suggests that Kenya should pursue structural reforms, such as reducing reliance on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and easing restrictions on foreign investment [1]

Group 1 - The United States and Switzerland have reached a new tariff agreement, reducing tariffs from 39% to 15%, with Switzerland committing to invest approximately $200 billion in the U.S. by the end of 2028 [1][2] - The total investment includes commitments from Swiss pharmaceutical companies Roche ($50 billion) and Novartis ($23 billion), as well as investments from engineering group ABB and railway equipment manufacturer Stadler [1] - The agreement must be approved by the Swiss parliament and will subsequently undergo a national referendum, with the Swiss government emphasizing the need to lower costs for domestic companies [1][2] Group 2 - The tariff negotiations are critically important for Switzerland, as the U.S. is a major export market for Swiss goods such as watches, chocolate, pharmaceuticals, and machine tools [2] - The recent tariff crisis has led to a significant decline in Swiss technology exports to the U.S., with a reported drop of 14.2% in the third quarter compared to the previous year [1] - The economic impact of the tariffs has prompted discussions about Switzerland's neutral status and increased calls for strengthening relations with the European Union [2]

Core Insights - The prolonged 42-day federal government shutdown has led to the potential permanent loss of certain economic data originally scheduled for collection in October, complicating the assessment of the U.S. economic health [1][2] - The shutdown has severely impacted federal statistical agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Census Bureau, with significant delays in key economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment data [1][2] Economic Impact - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, indicated that some statistical surveys were not completed, resulting in an unclear economic picture until statistical agencies resume operations [1] - The anticipated release of the September employment report, originally scheduled for October 3, is expected to be the easiest to rectify, as data collection was completed before the shutdown [1] - Hassett predicts that the U.S. economic growth will return to a rate of 3%-4% by the first quarter of the following year, despite acknowledging the impact of the shutdown on the economy [2] Legislative Developments - The Senate passed a bill to restart the government on November 11, with the House expected to approve it soon, followed by the signature of former President Trump [2]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Azerbaijan's nominal GDP will reach $76.4 billion in 2025, representing a growth of 3% [1] - The non-oil and gas sector is expected to grow by 4.5% [1] - By 2026, Azerbaijan's GDP is projected to reach $80 billion, and by 2030, it is expected to reach $100.8 billion [1]