Group 1: Macro News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation have released the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry 2025-2026," which includes 16 specific measures aimed at promoting industrial upgrades, enhancing the high-quality supply system, and fostering economic circulation [1] - The plan focuses on three main areas: promoting industrial upgrades, deepening the construction of a high-quality supply system, and driving the integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] Group 2: Renewable Energy Development - The National Energy Administration is actively researching policy measures to promote the development of deep-sea offshore wind power and solar thermal power, emphasizing the acceleration of new models and new business formats in renewable energy [2] - The administration aims to leverage a series of supportive policies to facilitate the growth of emerging industries in the renewable energy sector [2] Group 3: Local Government Debt - In August, local government bond issuance reached 977.6 billion yuan, exceeding the previously announced issuance plan of 940.8 billion yuan [5] - Five provinces (municipalities) issued over 50 billion yuan in bonds, with Anhui leading at 92.7 billion yuan, followed by Guangdong at 92.1 billion yuan and Zhejiang at 76.0 billion yuan [5]

Core Viewpoints - The contraction of corporate loans does not affect the judgment that the worst period of the economic cycle is passing [4][6] - Overall corporate financing scale is still growing, with improvements in equity and bond financing compared to the same period last year [4][6] - The level of loans does not necessarily correspond to the health of the economy, as the ongoing recovery of the corporate-resident deposit gap indicates continuous improvement in the economic cycle [4][6] - Current market policies have reduced stock volatility, enhancing risk-adjusted returns for equities, making them more attractive compared to bonds [4][6] Group 1: Understanding Corporate Loan Contraction - In July, corporate short-term loans decreased by 550 billion, and medium to long-term loans decreased by 260 billion, indicating a seasonal factor as July is traditionally a low month for credit [13][14] - The reduction in corporate loans may benefit the Producer Price Index (PPI) by controlling the flow of loans to the manufacturing sector, which has been a focus of recent supply-side reforms [16][19] - Corporate financing is not limited to loans; direct financing has shown strong performance, indicating a shift in economic structure towards more suitable financing methods for high-tech and innovative enterprises [19][23] Group 2: July Financial Data and Its Impact on Investment Judgments - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.1 trillion, marking the third highest value for the year, indicating ample liquidity in financial institutions [30][31] - The ratio of resident deposits to the market value of stocks remains high, suggesting significant potential for market growth as the economic cycle improves [30][31] - The Sharpe ratio for stocks compared to bonds is increasing, indicating a reversal in the attractiveness of equities over bonds, driven by clear market stabilization policies [31][36] Group 3: July Financial Data Overview - In July, the total social financing increased by 1.16 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, while corporate loans decreased significantly [37][38] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a healthy increase in liquidity, while new M1 also showed a positive trend [38][39] - The overall corporate financing scale continues to recover, with improvements in direct financing methods such as corporate bond and equity financing [37][39]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents five key judgments regarding the current economic situation in China, indicating that the worst period of economic circulation is likely over, and emphasizes a shift away from reliance on extraordinary policies and the loosest monetary policy phase [2][18]. Group 1: Economic Circulation - The worst period of economic circulation is likely passing, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year and leading indicators showing objective improvement [2][3]. - Key indicators of economic circulation include the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits, M1 growth, and various measures of household savings behavior, all of which have shown signs of recovery over the past 6-9 months [3][4]. Group 2: Policy Changes - The reliance on extraordinary policy measures is diminishing, with a focus on the effectiveness of existing policies rather than new ones, as evidenced by a 8.9% increase in fiscal spending in the first half of the year [7][8]. - The potential for new incremental policies in the second half of the year is significantly reduced, with a focus on monitoring the release of household deposits and leading indicators [7][8]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is likely coming to an end, as indicated by the current state of household deposits and the relationship between deposit behavior and monetary policy [9][12]. - The total household deposits have reached 160 trillion, with a significant portion being precautionary savings, suggesting a shift in monetary policy dynamics [9][12]. Group 4: Investment Landscape - The relative attractiveness of bonds compared to stocks is changing, with a notable increase in the Sharpe ratio for stocks, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation from bonds to stocks [12][14]. - The capital market's stability and attractiveness are being reinforced by policy interventions, which have reduced volatility and downside risks in the stock market [12][14]. Group 5: Competition and Market Dynamics - The current phase of intense competition driven by unfair practices is likely coming to an end, with ongoing efforts to regulate and optimize market competition [14][16]. - The government is focusing on enhancing market order and addressing issues related to unfair competition, which may positively impact economic circulation and pricing [16][17].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment in China, focusing on economic cycles, monetary policy, and supply-side reforms. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Cycle Recovery**: The disparity between corporate and household deposit growth is a leading indicator of economic cycles, which has shown signs of recovery over the past 6-9 months, indicating that the worst economic period may be behind [1][2][16]. 2. **Policy Direction**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the release of existing policy effects rather than introducing new stimulus measures, suggesting a shift away from extraordinary policy reliance [1][4]. 3. **Monetary Policy Shift**: The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is over, with a focus on structural functions rather than broad easing. The large scale of precautionary savings among residents poses challenges for the central bank [1][5][17]. 4. **Impact of Household Savings**: The shift of household deposits towards financial investments has improved market liquidity, but it also presents challenges for the central bank in balancing tightening and easing measures [1][6][7]. 5. **Stock vs. Bond Market Dynamics**: Policies have significantly impacted the stock market, enhancing its attractiveness compared to bonds. Despite economic indicators not showing significant recovery, the stock market has seen an increase in its floating ratio due to policy interventions [1][8][12]. 6. **Supply-Side Reforms**: Current supply-side reforms focus on improving energy efficiency in high-energy-consuming industries and enhancing market competition through legal and market-oriented measures [3][9][10]. 7. **Anti-Competition Policies**: The anti-involution policies are aimed at optimizing market competition and addressing issues like improper scale competition and local protectionism, with a focus on legal frameworks rather than administrative measures [11][22]. 8. **Future Economic Indicators**: The next few months are critical for observing leading economic indicators, which could trigger an earlier shift from bonds to stocks if they show sustained improvement [12][19]. 9. **Consumer Policy Outlook**: Consumer policies in the second half of the year are expected to remain stable, focusing on measures to stabilize retail sales, including subsidies and financial incentives [20][21]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Investment Trends**: A decline in manufacturing investment is anticipated, which historically has led to positive outcomes for PPI, suggesting that a reduction in investment could be beneficial for the economy in the long run [19]. 2. **Household and Corporate Deposit Dynamics**: The current state of household and corporate deposit growth is crucial for understanding future economic pressures and consumer behavior, with a noted historical low in the deposit gap [16]. 3. **Long-Term Economic Adjustments**: The adjustments in monetary policy and economic strategies are expected to lead to upward revisions in economic cycles and price assessments, which could negatively impact bonds while improving equity attractiveness [14][18].

Core Viewpoints - The economic cycle has been continuously improving since September 2024, with the April data showing a persistent improvement in the deposit scissors difference between enterprises and residents [4][21] - Non-bank institutions have seen the highest deposit growth in the past five years, indicating a potential shift in resident deposits and a response to the central bank's efforts to stabilize the market [4][9] - Loan data reveals a structural shift, with an increase in consumer loans for residents and a decrease in operational loans, while enterprises are seeing a rise in short-term loans but a decline in medium- to long-term loans [4][8] Financial Asset Side Observations - April is typically a month of weak credit expansion, with the new social financing scale at 1.16 trillion, which is relatively stable compared to previous years [6][12] - The structure of resident loans is changing, with consumer loans increasing while operational loans are declining, reflecting a shift in demand and potential impacts on household debt and bank income [7][14] - Enterprise loans have shown a strong performance in 2025, with a total of 9.3 trillion in new loans, although the duration of these loans is shortening compared to previous years [8][18] Financial Liability Side Observations - Leading indicators of the economic cycle are improving, with the enterprise-resident deposit scissors difference recovering from -14.7% in August 2024 to -8.4% currently [9][21] - Non-bank institution deposits have increased significantly, with a total of 2.2 trillion in new deposits in the first four months of 2025, indicating strong performance in the equity market [9][23] - The central bank's protective measures in the financial market are evident, with interventions aimed at stabilizing asset prices during market shocks [10][24] April Financial Data Highlights - In April, RMB loans increased by 280 billion, with a total loan balance of 265.7 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [29][31] - The social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, indicating ongoing government debt issuance [31][32] - M2 growth was recorded at 8%, while new M1 growth was at 1.5%, showing a mixed trend in monetary aggregates [32][33]

Group 1: Financial Asset Observations - In April 2025, new social financing amounted to 1.16 trillion RMB, a decrease from 5.89 trillion RMB in the previous period[1] - The total amount of new RMB loans was 280 billion RMB, down from 3.64 trillion RMB previously[1] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.7%, compared to 8.4% in the previous period[1] Group 2: Loan Structure Changes - Since September 2024, there has been a continuous increase in consumer loans while operating loans have been declining[2] - For enterprises, short-term loans are increasing while medium to long-term loans are decreasing[2] - The proportion of medium to long-term loans in enterprise loans has decreased from approximately 76% in 2023 to about 62% in 2025[5] Group 3: Economic Cycle Indicators - The enterprise-resident deposit scissors difference improved from -14.7% in August 2024 to -8.4% currently, indicating a recovery in the economic cycle[6] - Non-bank institutions saw a strong increase in deposits, with a total of 2.2 trillion RMB added in the first four months of 2025, higher than previous years[6] Group 4: Government Leverage and Financing - In April, the net financing of government bonds was 972.9 billion RMB, an increase of 10.67 trillion RMB year-on-year[6] - The total social financing increment was 11.59 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 12.25 trillion RMB[6] - M2 growth was 8% year-on-year, up from 7% in the previous month[6]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 1 、看数据：结合我们团队持续跟踪的指标【企业居民存款剪刀差】来看，这一指标自 2024 年 9 月政策转 向以来持续修复，因此我们判断经济的循环在持续改善。从数据来看，【企业居民存款剪刀差】从 2024 年 8 月的 -14.7% 修复至当下的 -8.7% ，共抬升 6 个百分点，其中居民存款同比回落 0.6% ，非金融企业存款 同比抬升 5.4% 。 2025年3月，新增社融5.89万亿（前值2.24万亿），新增人民币贷款36400亿（前值10100亿）。社融存量同 比增长8.4%（前值8.2%），M2同比增长7 %（前值7%），旧口径M1同比增长-0.8%（前值-2.5%）。新口 径M1同比增长1.6%（前值0.1%）。 核心观点 1 、从基本面来看，我们持续跟踪的经济循环指标【企业居民存款剪刀差】自 2024 年 9 月以来持续修复， 特别是 2025 年一季度企业的融资数据表现偏强，因此，截至 2025 年一季度而言，我们维持经济预期最悲 观的时刻已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a unified national market is a significant measure to leverage China's large-scale market advantages and is an inherent requirement for improving the socialist market economy system [1][2] Group 1: Government Role and Market Environment - The government should better facilitate the economy by addressing bottlenecks in economic circulation and continuously optimizing the business environment [1] - There is a strong emphasis on developing the private economy and ensuring equal participation rights for private enterprises in market competition [1] - The implementation of full-process electronic bidding is aimed at promoting healthy development in public resource transactions [1] Group 2: Market Regulation and Efficiency - Strengthening market regulation is essential to ensure product quality and service levels, with unified law enforcement standards to combat market violations [1] - Enhancing connectivity and reducing logistics costs are critical for improving market circulation efficiency [1] Group 3: Encouraging Local and External Participation - Local enterprises are encouraged to expand into regional and national markets, while external companies are welcomed to invest in the city, contributing to the unified national market [2]