中金研究 进入2026年，市场聚焦成长风格，主题性投资机会涌现，公用事业板块在风格切换和基本面弱势下市场关注度走弱，延续2H25趋势。但我们认为长线 资金仍有高息配置需求，同时区域个股存在交易性机会。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 主线1：赛道盈利、现金流逐步释放，格局稳中向好。1） 垃圾发电 行业运营转型卓有成效，企业聚焦存量资产提质增效，通过向优对标核心运营数据， 推动基本面和行业格局稳中向好。此外，资本开支下滑、应收改善趋势下，行业自由现金流改善，带动分红能力和意愿提升。同时，企业积极探索绿电直 连等新场景匹配稳定用电需求，并谨慎寻求出海机会，拓展增长空间。 2） 核电 ：华南电价风险释放较为充分，我们预计区域内核电资产盈利有望企 稳。进入"十五五"，核电进入密集投产期，每年稳定贡献盈利增量。 主线2：仍有高股息配置需求，关注强支付能力的火电、香港公用事业。 海外降息及国内低利率环境持续，长线资金仍有高股息投资需求，比起以往市场 偏好的水电板块，我们认为资本开支放缓、现金流充沛的火电、垃圾发电具备提升派息空间，有望成为新的高分红备选标的。此外，香港公用事业利润可 预期性强，历史分红确定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Penghui Energy & Sichuan Zhongfu 107.12MW/428.48MWh Green Hydropower Aluminum User-side Energy Storage Project" has been officially put into operation, marking it as the largest user-side energy storage project in China [1] Group 1: Project Details - The project will supply all generated electricity directly to Zhongfu Industrial for green aluminum production [1] - It operates under a "two charge, two discharge" model combined with peak and valley electricity pricing mechanisms, optimizing energy consumption and cost [1] Group 2: Environmental Impact - The project is expected to save nearly 20,000 tons of standard coal annually [1] - It will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 52,000 tons, equivalent to the annual CO2 absorption of about 2.8 million trees [1]

Core Viewpoint - The project by Penghui Energy represents the largest user-side energy storage project in China, aimed at supporting green aluminum production through renewable energy sources [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The Sichuan Zhongfu 107.12MW/428.48MWh green hydropower aluminum user-side energy storage project has been officially put into operation [1] - The project will supply all its generated electricity directly to Zhongfu Industrial for green aluminum production [1] Group 2: Operational Mechanism - The project utilizes a "two charge, two discharge" operational model along with a peak-valley electricity pricing mechanism to optimize energy consumption and costs [1] Group 3: Environmental Impact - Annually, the project is expected to save nearly 20,000 tons of standard coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 52,000 tons [1] - The reduction in carbon emissions is equivalent to the amount absorbed by about 2.8 million trees in one year [1]

| 收盘点位 | | 10679.07 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 10950.05 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6107.84 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 2025-11 2026-01 -11% -4% 3% 10% 17% 24% 31% 38% 45% 52% 59% 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 证券研究报告：电力设备|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 分析师:苏千叶 SAC 登记编号:S1340525110004 Email:suqianye@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 分析师:盛炜 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120008 Email:shengwei@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《核电产业报告 1： ——全球核电复兴 下的 4 代核电的投资机会》 - 2026.01.06 电网投资加速，看好跨区建设和电 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial and commercial energy storage sector is evolving into a necessity for high-energy-consuming enterprises due to rising electricity costs, ESG zero-carbon transformation demands, and the need for grid stability [2]. Group 1: Project Developments - The "Penghui Energy & Sichuan Zhongfu 107.12MW/428.48MWh Green Hydropower Aluminum User-side Energy Storage Project" was officially launched in Guangyuan Economic Development Zone [3]. - This project is the largest user-side energy storage project in China, with all generated electricity supplied directly to Zhongfu Industrial for green aluminum production. It utilizes a "two charge, two discharge" operation mode and peak-valley pricing mechanism, optimizing energy costs and enhancing reliability [5]. Group 2: Market Trends - According to the "Expert Report on Energy Storage: 2025 Power Market and Intelligent Energy Storage Research," the Chinese industrial and commercial energy storage market is expected to reach an installed capacity of 4.74GW/12.11GWh by 2025, with a growth rate of 61.4%. This growth is driven by increasing energy storage needs from high-energy-consuming enterprises, with projects over 100MWh accounting for over 37.75% of the total capacity [6]. Group 3: Project Capacity Overview - A table lists various energy storage projects scheduled for completion by 2025, highlighting their power and capacity, such as: - Sichuan Green Hydropower Aluminum User-side Energy Storage Project: 107.12MW / 428.48MWh - Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal User-side Energy Storage Project Phase I: 91.5MW / 366MWh - Jiangsu JXYG Steel 260MWh User-side Energy Storage Project: 130MW / 260MWh [7][8].

Market Overview - The SW public utility sector increased by 2.54%, ranking 23rd among 31 SW primary sectors, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.4% [4] - Sub-sectors such as thermal power, hydropower, photovoltaic power, wind power, and gas saw increases of 2.4%, 0.7%, 3.9%, 2.6%, and 4.8% respectively [4] Price Updates - Domestic Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal price rose by 12 CNY/ton, surpassing 700 CNY/ton, while imported thermal coal from Fangchenggang increased by 5 CNY/ton [5] - The average settlement price for Guangdong's spot electricity was 304.82 CNY/MWh, down from 331.78 CNY/MWh the previous week [5] - Shanxi's spot clearing price averaged 144.84 CNY/MWh, a decrease from 279.73 CNY/MWh the previous week [5] Key Events - Annual long-term contract electricity prices for 2026 were disclosed, with Shanghai at 0.430 CNY/kWh (+3.41% from baseline), and Guangdong at 0.372 CNY/kWh (-17.88% from baseline) [6] - The National Energy Administration reported that the photovoltaic utilization rate was 93.7% in November, down from 94.8% in October, while wind power utilization was 93.1% [6] Industry Insights - The annual long-term contract bidding results indicate a significant increase in profitability for national thermal power operators due to a decrease in thermal coal prices [7] - The electricity price remains a critical factor, with expectations of continued pressure on prices despite a favorable supply situation [7] - The green electricity sector is expected to see valuation recovery due to policy support and accelerated green electricity subsidies [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of methanol as a clean, low-carbon energy source, transitioning from a supplementary to a primary energy role in China's energy landscape, particularly in achieving energy security and supporting the "dual carbon" goals [2][4]. Group 1: Methanol as a Strategic Energy Source - Methanol is recognized as a key player in the new energy system, with its production methods utilizing diverse raw materials, including fossil fuels and carbon dioxide, enabling the creation of "zero-carbon methanol" [2][4]. - The forum highlighted a collective initiative to promote liquid renewable energy development, underscoring methanol's critical position in future energy systems [2][4]. Group 2: Advantages of Methanol in Transportation - Methanol's characteristics, such as high energy density and quick refueling capabilities, make it particularly suitable for commercial vehicles, outperforming pure electric vehicles in long-haul and low-temperature scenarios [5][7]. - The methanol-powered vehicles demonstrate significant environmental benefits, with PM pollutant emissions reduced by 98% and fuel costs lowered by 32%-52% compared to diesel [7][8]. Group 3: Economic Viability and Cost Efficiency - Methanol's production and application across the entire supply chain exhibit notable cost advantages, positioning it as an economic engine for large-scale renewable energy adoption [10][12]. - The potential for utilizing a significant portion of China's annual carbon dioxide emissions for methanol production presents a substantial opportunity for resource utilization [10][12]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Industry Growth - The establishment of a robust methanol infrastructure, alongside ongoing technological advancements and expanding application scenarios, is expected to create a trillion-dollar green methanol industry ecosystem [13]. - The successful hosting of the second Green Methanol Energy Industry Development Forum signifies a pivotal moment for the industry, aligning with national strategies for energy independence and zero-carbon futures [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful implementation of five photovoltaic energy storage plants, which enhance green electricity supply and reduce operational costs, thereby establishing a foundation for attracting high-end industries in the region [1] Group 1: Energy Storage and Supply - Five photovoltaic energy storage plants have been put into operation, achieving a daily energy storage capacity of 305,000 kilowatt-hours, extending green electricity supply by 2 hours during the night [1] - The region has stabilized its comprehensive electricity cost between 0.25 to 0.32 yuan per kilowatt-hour, creating a "green electricity basin" that is expected to attract high-end industries such as green computing [1] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The new intelligent centralized control center for renewable energy has been launched, resulting in a 75% reduction in labor operation and maintenance costs compared to traditional models [1] Group 3: Economic and Social Impact - The restructuring of the new power system at the urban level allows for large-scale consumption of green electricity and ensures the stable operation of the power grid, providing a replicable model for similar regions across the country [1] - This initiative is significant for advancing the energy revolution, achieving "dual carbon" goals, and ensuring energy security in China [1]

Market Overview - The SW public utility sector increased by 0.83% this week, ranking 20th among 31 SW primary sectors, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.53% [4] - The top five performing stocks in the public utility sector were Jingneng Power (+15.95%), Delong Huineng (+12.85%), Shanghai Electric (+11.47%), Dalian Thermal Power (+7.61%), and Anhui Energy (+7.43%) [4] - The worst-performing stocks included Hengsheng Energy (-21.47%), Xin'ao Co. (-5.47%), Mindong Electric (-2.17%), Huatong Thermal (-2%), and Huaneng Hydropower (-1.92%) [4] Coal Price Trends - Domestic and imported thermal coal prices continued to decline this week, with Qinhuangdao Port's 5500 kcal thermal coal price dropping by 33 CNY/ton [5] - Imported thermal coal prices also fell, with the price at Fangchenggang Port decreasing by 20 CNY/ton and at Guangzhou Port by 15 CNY/ton [5] Key Events - Guangdong's total transaction volume for 2026 is projected at 359.437 billion kWh, with an average transaction price of 37.214 CNY/kWh, down 5.03% year-on-year [6] - The electricity price for bilateral negotiations in 2026 is set at 37.221 CNY/kWh, with a total transaction volume of 4.779 billion kWh, reflecting a 17.74% increase from 2025 [6] - Nationwide electricity consumption reached 835.6 billion kWh in November, a 6.2% year-on-year increase, with cumulative consumption from January to November at 9,460.2 billion kWh, up 5.2% [6] - As of the end of November, the total installed power generation capacity reached 3.79 billion kW, a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [7] Industry Outlook - The results of the Guangdong electricity price negotiations are in line with expectations, with potential pressure on the profitability of thermal power units, although the spot market may provide performance growth [8] - The outlook for other provinces suggests that the annual long-term contract prices in regions with stable monthly contracts, such as Beijing and Shanghai, are expected to remain stable [8] - The green electricity sector is anticipated to experience valuation recovery due to policy support and accelerated subsidies, despite a downward trend in electricity prices [8] - The investment returns for thermal and green electricity should align with the overall investment return levels to ensure financing viability [8]

Core Viewpoint - Jilin Province is experiencing a significant transformation in its energy sector, with wind and solar power becoming dominant sources of energy, contributing to a shift from coal dependency to green electricity by 2025 [1][14]. Group 1: Resource Development and Capacity - As of the end of October, wind and solar power generation accounted for 32% of Jilin's total energy output, ranking fourth in the country [1][15]. - The installed capacity of renewable energy in Jilin has surpassed 25 million kilowatts, making it the largest power source in the province, with nearly 10 billion kilowatt-hours of renewable energy exported in the first three quarters of the year [2][17]. - Jilin's green ammonia and green alcohol production capacity has reached 430,000 tons, representing a significant portion of the national supply [1][15]. Group 2: Innovative Projects and Models - Jilin is exploring diverse integration models such as "fishing and solar" projects, which combine fish farming with solar power generation, producing 466 megawatts of solar energy to power 200,000 households [5][20]. - The province is also developing pumped storage power stations to complement wind and solar energy generation [5][20]. - Distributed solar projects are proliferating, allowing households to benefit from solar energy, enhancing local income [5][20]. Group 3: Industrial Cluster Development - Jilin has established a complete wind and solar energy industrial chain, from raw materials to downstream applications, with local production of wind turbine components [6][23]. - The province is promoting the construction of 10 provincial-level and 9 municipal-level green energy industrial parks to enhance collaboration and efficiency within the industry [8][23]. - The successful launch of projects like the integrated green methanol production facility in Tiaonan demonstrates the effectiveness of industrial clustering, significantly increasing local supply chain efficiency [10][25]. Group 4: Policy Support and Mechanism Innovation - Continuous policy support has streamlined project approvals and enhanced the economic viability of renewable energy projects, with a focus on breaking down barriers to resource monetization [11][26]. - The introduction of a "green electricity + consumption" model provides tailored solutions for energy utilization, ensuring that renewable energy is effectively integrated into the market [12][27]. - Jilin is advancing the establishment of a unified electricity market, fostering a competitive environment that maximizes the potential for renewable energy consumption [13][28]. Group 5: Socioeconomic Impact - The growth of wind and solar industries is not only transforming Jilin's energy structure but also revitalizing the local economy and enhancing the quality of life for residents [14][29]. - The province aims to leverage its green energy resources to support industrial upgrades and improve public welfare, contributing to the broader goal of sustainable development [14][29].