中信期货分析认为，美联储12月议息会议发声较市场预期更鸽，周四白银延续强势，黄金震荡偏强，金 银比值再度回落。月内我们对贵金属趋势维持乐观，12月金银价格有望震荡向上。驱动主要来自两方 面，其一流动性宽松交易仍是季度级别的核心驱动。美联储新主席提名或在新年初确认，候选人中相对 更鸽的哈塞特提名概率持续上升，其提名至上任前，可能是流动性宽松预期和美联储独立性风险交易最 流畅的阶段。其二白银挤仓交易带动上涨弹性放大，短期难以迅速缓和。前期伦铜注销仓单骤升，挤仓 从白银向其他品种蔓延，金属板块的资金热度维持。长期中，美元信用收缩的时代叙事将继续主导贵金 属上行趋势，美国货币扩张、全球财政扩张预期或带动经济周期向温和复苏轮动，白银有望迎来更大的 上涨弹性。 近日，世界黄金协会发布2026年展望称，黄金在2025年经历了非凡的一年，超50次创下历史新高，回报 率超过60%。展望2026年，受美债收益率下行、地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及避险情绪高涨等因素推动， 金价或较当前水平上涨15%至30%；而若"再通胀回归"，金价则可能面临5%至20%的回调压力。 12月12日，金价早盘小幅回落后，午后持续走强，截至A股收盘，COME ...

中信期货分析认为，美联储12月议息会议发声较市场预期更鸽，周四白银延续强势，黄金震荡偏强，金 银比值再度回落。月内我们对贵金属趋势维持乐观，12月金银价格有望震荡向上。驱动主要来自两方 面，其一流动性宽松交易仍是季度级别的核心驱动。美联储新主席提名或在新年初确认，候选人中相对 更鸽的哈塞特提名概率持续上升，其提名至上任前，可能是流动性宽松预期和美联储独立性风险交易最 流畅的阶段。其二白银挤仓交易带动上涨弹性放大，短期难以迅速缓和。前期伦铜注销仓单骤升，挤仓 从白银向其他品种蔓延，金属板块的资金热度维持。长期中，美元信用收缩的时代叙事将继续主导贵金 属上行趋势，美国货币扩张、全球财政扩张预期或带动经济周期向温和复苏轮动，白银有望迎来更大的 上涨弹性。 近日，世界黄金协会发布2026年展望称，黄金在2025年经历了非凡的一年，超50次创下历史新高，回报 率超过60%。展望2026年，受美债收益率下行、地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及避险情绪高涨等因素推动， 金价或较当前水平上涨15%至30%；而若"再通胀回归"，金价则可能面临5%至20%的回调压力。 12月12日，金价早盘小幅回落后，午后持续走强，截至A股收盘，COME ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-11 议息会议措辞偏鸽，⾦银有望震荡向上 12⽉议息会议如期降息25BP，鲍威尔发⾔⽐预期更加鸽派，结果披露后 美元及美债收益率出现显著下⾏。昨⽇银价⼤幅拉涨，⻩⾦维持震荡偏 强，⽉内我们对贵⾦属维持乐观，12⽉⾦银价格有望震荡向上。 重点资讯： 1）美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基 金利率目标区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。这是美联储继9月17日、10月 29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。会议投票为9票 赞成、3票反对，部分委员主张维持利率不变或更大降幅。会议声明 指出经济温和扩张，就业增长放缓、失业率小幅上升，通胀仍处高 位，委员会关注双重使命的双向风险。为维持银行体系流动性充足， 自12月12日起启动每月约400亿美元的短期国债购买计划。美联储点 阵图预测显示在2026年和2027年各有一次25个基点的降息。 2）美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，货币政策无预设路径， 将逐次会议依据数据决策。通胀仍偏高，但非关税驱动的核心通胀已 显著改善，若无新关税，商品通胀预 ...

CITIC Futures 白银再度拉涨,月内趋势维持震荡向上 研究员 朱善颖 从业资格号:F03138401 投资咨询号:Z0021426 张皓云 从业资格号:F03114820 投资咨询号: Z0022427 重要提示: 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的现点和信息仅作参考之用, 不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相 关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 免责声明．除非另有说明，中信期货有限公司（以下简称"中信期货》拥有本报告的版权/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权，不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信 期货对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或稳含的保证。本报告并不构成中信期货给予的任何私人咨询建议。 中信期货研究所 宏观研究组 【贵金属】异动点评 12月10日白银再度大幅拉涨,截至国内收盘,沪银涨幅5.44%,沪金震荡偏强,日内涨幅0.26%。 挤仓交易叠加美联储独立性风险,白银上涨弹性放大。我们在11月30日策略专题《新一轮上涨启动,白银弹性释放》中提出,金 银的新一轮上涨行情已经启动,白银有望迎来更大弹性。原因主要在于 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to show a volatile and upward trend in December. After the 12 - month FOMC meeting, there may be some adjustment pressure, but the amplitude is likely to be limited. The long - term upward trend of precious metals will be dominated by the contraction of the US dollar's credit, and silver may have greater elasticity [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Key News - US President Trump may adjust tariffs to lower prices of some goods and will use support for immediate and substantial interest - rate cuts as a criterion for selecting the new Fed chair [2]. - The ADP weekly employment report shows that private - sector employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week in the four - week period ending November 22 [2]. - The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in November was 99, up from 98.2 in the previous period [2]. - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that Japan's financial system is generally stable, and the government is responsible for achieving medium - to long - term fiscal sustainability. The BOJ is closely monitoring the risk exposure of Japanese banks to non - bank financial institutions outside Japan. The exchange rate should follow the fundamentals, and if inflation accelerates rapidly, the policy will be adjusted. The economy is expected to resume positive growth in Q4 and continue to grow thereafter, and the BOJ has been gradually reducing the easing intensity [2]. 3.2. Price Logic - On Tuesday, gold and silver prices were relatively strong and volatile, with silver showing resilience at high levels. The market is waiting for the outcome of the interest - rate meeting. The expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the December FOMC meeting has been fully traded, and there may be adjustment pressure after the meeting, but the amplitude may be limited [1][3]. - In the short term, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driving factor for the quarter. The probability of a more dovish candidate, Hassett, being nominated as the Fed chair is increasing. After the nomination and before taking office, it may be the most favorable period for trading the expectation of loose liquidity and the risk of the Fed's independence [3]. - The leading role of silver provides support for gold prices. The squeeze - trading is spreading from silver to copper and may remain a hot topic for capital trading this month [3]. - In the long term, the narrative of the contraction of the US dollar's credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals. The expansion of the US currency and the global fiscal expansion are expected to drive the economic cycle to a mild recovery, and silver may have greater elasticity [3]. 3.3. Outlook - This week, the price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [4,000, 4,400], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [53, 60] [3]. 3.4. Commodity Indexes - On December 9, 2025, the comprehensive index, the Commodity 20 Index, and the industrial products index decreased by 1.08%, 1.08%, and 1.38% respectively, with values of 2,242.53, 2,560.81, and 2,185.44 [43]. 3.5. Precious Metals Index - On December 9, 2025, the precious metals index was 3495.55, with a daily decline of 0.74%, a decline of 0.32% in the past five days, an increase of 4.20% in the past month, and an increase of 58.00% since the beginning of the year [45].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-9 贵⾦属震荡运⾏，关注周内FOMC会议 周⼀贵⾦属震荡运⾏，市场在议息会议前表现平静。短期来看，12⽉议息 会议降息25BP的预期交易相对充分，靴⼦落地后或有调整压⼒，但幅度 可能有限，⽉内贵⾦属⽅向预计延续震荡向上。 重点资讯： 1）日本第三季度实际GDP年化季环比终值降2.3%，预期降2%，初值降 1.8%；季环比终值降0.6%，预期降0.5%，初值降0.4%。修正后的数据 显示，日本经济在7-9月当季的萎缩幅度大于初步估计，证实了这是 六个季度以来的首次萎缩。 2）日本政府向临时国会提交了2025年度补充预算案。这将成为执行 经济对策的财源，用于应对物价高涨和强化经济增长战略。在首相高 市早苗"负责任的积极财政"方针下，一般会计支出达到18.3034万 亿日元，创下新冠疫情后新高。由于税收增加部分无法覆盖支出，逾 6成财政收入将通过追加发行作为借款的国债来填补。 3）美国财长贝森特：美国今年GDP增长率将达3%；预计明年通胀率将 大幅下降，债券市场迎来2020年以来表现最佳的一年。 价格逻辑： 周一贵金属震荡 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, gold oscillates, and silver adjusts at a high level. The short - term fluctuations of precious metals are mainly affected by the silver capital side. In the long - term, the narrative of the contraction of the US dollar credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals [3][5]. - The logical environment is generally favorable for the rise of precious metals this month. The expectation of loose liquidity is the core driver, and the nomination of the Fed Chairman is the key concern. The squeeze trading in silver may still be repeated this month [5]. - Looking ahead, the range of spot gold in London this week is expected to be between $4000 and $4400 per ounce, and that of spot silver in London is expected to be between $53 and $60 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - US initial jobless claims last week were 191,000, with an expected 220,000. The four - week average was 214,750. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were 1.939 million, with an expected 1.961 million. The current application level is consistent with historically low lay - offs, which may ease market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labor market [4]. - The number of Challenger corporate lay - offs in the US in November was 71,321, a 53.4% decrease from the previous value. Year - on - year, it increased by 23.5% [4]. - The Chicago Fed expects the US unemployment rate in November to remain stable at around 4.4% [4]. 3.2 Price Logic - On Thursday, gold oscillated, and silver adjusted at a high level. Attention should be paid to the support at the previously broken level of $53 - $54. The US weekly initial and continuing jobless claims announced on the day conformed to seasonal patterns and had a low impact on the market [3][5]. - This month, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driver, and the nomination of the Fed Chairman is the key concern. The relatively dovish candidate Hassett has the highest popularity. The period from nomination to taking office may be the smoothest time for trading on the expectation of loose liquidity and the independence of the Fed [5]. - The spot lease rate of London silver remains at a relatively high level, and the squeeze trading is spreading from London to Asia and the US, which may still be repeated this month [5]. 3.3 Market Indexes - **Commodity Indexes**: The comprehensive index shows that the commodity index is 2272.72 (+0.11%), the commodity 20 index is 2593.02 (+0.20%), and the industrial products index is 2228.63 (+0.41%) [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On December 4, 2025, the precious metals index was 3485.92, with a daily decline of 0.59%, a 5 - day increase of 1.61%, a 1 - month increase of 7.61%, and a year - to - date increase of 57.56% [46]. - **PPI Commodity Index**: The PPI commodity index is 1371.00 (+0.78%) [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, precious metals maintained a volatile and upward trend, with significant high - level fluctuations in silver. The unexpectedly weak ADP employment in the US increased the probability of a December interest rate cut, and the expectation of loose liquidity still dominated the market. The overall logical environment is conducive to the rise of precious metals this month, and in the long - term, the decline of the US dollar credit will drive the upward trend of precious metals. [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Key Information - The cooling of the US labor market exceeded expectations. The ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is nearly 90%. [2] - The US import and export price indices in September were flat month - on - month, with the import price index rising 0.3% year - on - year and the export price index rising 3.8% year - on - year. [2] - US President Trump mentioned that Kevin Hassett is a potential Fed chairman. [2] - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that the US economy will achieve "real wage growth" and "low - inflation growth" and return to 4% growth in 2026. [2] Price Logic - Short - term: Precious metals were volatile and upward on Wednesday, with large fluctuations in silver. The unexpectedly weak ADP employment increased the probability of a December interest rate cut, and the loose liquidity expectation dominated the market. [1][3] - Medium - term: This month, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driving force. With the approaching Fed chairman nomination, the relatively dovish Hassett has the highest popularity, and the period from nomination to taking office may see the smoothest trading of loose liquidity expectations and Fed independence. The spot - end driving force for silver remains, and the squeeze - out trading is spreading. [3] - Long - term: The long - term upward trend of precious metals is driven by the contraction of the US dollar credit. The expansion of the US currency and the global fiscal expansion may lead to a mild economic recovery, and silver may have greater elasticity. [3] Outlook - This week, the range of the London gold spot is expected to be between $4,000 and $4,400 per ounce, and the range of the London silver spot is expected to be between $53 and $60 per ounce. [3] Commodity Index - On December 3, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2270.14, down 0.22%; the commodity 20 index was 2587.91, down 0.13%; the industrial product index was 2219.45, down 0.41%. [43] - The precious metal index on December 3, 2025, was 3506.69, with a daily increase of 0.24%, a 5 - day increase of 4.03%, a 1 - month increase of 9.15%, and a year - to - date increase of 58.50%. [45]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to fluctuate on December 2, with COMEX gold futures dropping to $4,194 before a slight recovery, resulting in a daily fluctuation of over $70. The closing price was $4,238.70 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.84% [1] - Recent data indicates a gradual cooling of the U.S. economy, coupled with dovish signals from Fed officials, which has increased market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, with traders pricing in a 89% probability of a rate cut [1] - Analysts noted that the midday drop in gold prices was due to profit-taking by investors following a recent strong rally [1] Group 2 - According to Chaos Tiancheng Futures analysis, the outlook for gold prices in 2025 is based on the logic of U.S. dollar credit contraction, alongside the onset of a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to weaken the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, creating a smoother upward trend [1] - The overall trading direction for next year is expected to be significantly influenced by macroeconomic changes, suggesting that while the current narrative remains intact, the market has not yet reached the end of a bull market and still holds allocation value, though caution is advised regarding potential shifts in high-level macro narratives [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continued to fluctuate on December 2, influenced by profit-taking, with COMEX gold futures dropping to $4,194 before slightly recovering, closing down 0.84% at $4,238.70 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures experienced a significant intraday volatility of over $70, closing at $4,238.70 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) fell by 0.48%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 1.24% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates a gradual cooling of the U.S. economy, coupled with dovish signals from Fed officials, which has heightened market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting [1] - Traders are currently pricing in a 89% probability of a rate cut [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysis from Chaos Tiancheng Futures suggests that gold prices are expected to trend upward due to a contraction in dollar credit and the onset of a rate-cutting cycle, alongside weakening expectations for the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The overall trading direction for next year is anticipated to be significantly influenced by macroeconomic changes, with the current narrative indicating that the bull market has not yet reached its end, maintaining investment value despite the need for caution regarding potential shifts in high-level macro narratives [1]