Group 1 - The international spot gold price has surpassed $4000 per ounce, reaching a historical high with an annual increase of over 53% [1] - Several banks, including China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have issued risk warnings regarding precious metals business, advising clients to manage their positions and invest rationally [1][2] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has raised the minimum investment threshold for its gold accumulation business from 850 yuan to 1000 yuan, while maintaining the minimum accumulation starting point at 1 gram for other methods [1] Group 2 - Multiple banks, including Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, have adjusted their precious metals-related services, including increasing investment thresholds and adjusting margin levels [2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties such as the U.S. government shutdown and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - UBS Wealth Management indicates that the demand for defensive assets has significantly increased amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical changes, with a smooth upward logic for precious metals in the fourth quarter [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - International spot gold prices have surpassed $4000 per ounce, marking a historical high with an annual increase of over 53% [1][3] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties such as the U.S. government shutdown and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][4] - As of October 10, 2023, the London gold price was reported at $4017.845 per ounce, while silver reached $50.126 per ounce, reflecting annual increases of 53.11% and 73.53% respectively [3] Group 2: Bank Responses to Gold Price Volatility - Major banks, including China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have issued risk warnings regarding gold trading, advising clients to manage their positions carefully due to increased market volatility [2][3] - ICBC has raised the minimum investment threshold for its gold accumulation business from 850 yuan to 1000 yuan, while maintaining the minimum for gram-based accumulation at 1 gram [2] - Banks are dynamically adjusting their gold-related services, including increasing investment thresholds and modifying margin levels in response to market fluctuations [3] Group 3: Fund Risk Rating Adjustments - Several banks have also adjusted the risk ratings of public fund products due to recent stock market volatility, with China CITIC Bank announcing changes effective October 15 [5][6] - The adjustments include raising the risk ratings of 15 products and lowering the ratings of 2 products, reflecting a proactive approach to investor protection and compliance with regulatory requirements [6][7] - The adjustments aim to ensure that the risk ratings align with the current market conditions and provide accurate information to investors, thereby reducing blind investment behaviors [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-10-10 价格逻辑： ⽌盈盘扰动短期价格，⽩银突破历史⾼ 位 节后开市⾸⽇，贵⾦属市场出现部分⽌盈盘，⽇内价格⼩幅回落，⽩银正 式突破历史⾼位。美国政府停摆状态维持，两党仍较为僵持，数据真空期 中"没有消息则是好消息"继续演绎。当前⾦银价格尚未出现4⽉的极端 拥挤，后续重点关注美国政府的停摆进展和价格波动率变化，这可能成为 ⾏情的转折驱动。 重点资讯： 1）纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉姆斯明确表态，支持在今年内进一步 下调利率，以应对劳动力市场可能出现的急剧放缓风险。他还表示， 并不认为美国经济处于衰退的边缘。通胀前景不像今年早些时候那么 可怕。劳动力市场疲软将有助于抑制通胀。 节后开市首日，贵金属市场出现部分止盈盘，价格小幅回落，白银正 式突破历史高位。美国政府停摆状态维持，两党仍较为僵持，数据真 空期中"没有消息则是好消息"继续演绎。高市早苗当选自民党总 裁，有望成为日本首位女总裁，其右翼主义的立场增加了亚太地区地 缘冲突的风险，对黄金的配置意愿进一步形成提振。 我们提示四季度贵金属上行逻辑整体顺畅，美联储降息周期伊始， ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/10/10 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: MOFCOM decided to control export of rare earth-related technologies. Futur ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged significantly since late August, reaching a historic high of $4,059.31 per ounce on October 9, 2023, marking an increase of nearly 55% since the beginning of 2025 [1][2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including U.S. government shutdown fears, ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and geopolitical tensions [2][5] - The performance of gold-related stocks has been robust, with several companies in the sector experiencing significant stock price increases, driven by rising gold prices and improved earnings [3][4] Gold Price Surge - Analysts categorize the gold price increase into two phases: the first from mid-January to mid-April due to rising safe-haven demand, and the second starting in late August following the Jackson Hole meeting, driven by rate cut expectations and European debt crisis concerns [1][2] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a peak price of 918.8 yuan per gram on October 9, 2023, reflecting the domestic market's response to international trends [1] Market Dynamics - Central banks globally have continued to purchase gold, with a net addition of 166 tons in Q2 2023, led by Poland's 29-ton increase [4] - The domestic gold ETF market has expanded significantly, with a total scale of 169.485 billion yuan by the end of September, showing a growth of over 140% since the beginning of the year [4] Investment Trends - The demand for gold is shifting from central banks to private investors, driven by lower opportunity costs due to expected rate cuts and rising geopolitical risks [5][6] - The current allocation of gold in global financial markets remains low compared to equities and bonds, indicating potential for increased investment in gold [5] Long-term Outlook - Analysts maintain a positive long-term outlook for gold prices, supported by macroeconomic factors such as liquidity expansion from rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks [6][7] - The focus for future price movements will be on U.S. government actions and economic data releases, which could influence market expectations [6][7]

中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-10-9 ⻩⾦突破4000美元关⼝，关注波动率和 美国政府停摆进展 ⾦银的价格波动率⼩幅抬升，但绝对位置仍处于偏低⽔准，价格尚未出现 4⽉的极端拥挤，短期上涨⾏情有望延续，我们分别上调⻩⾦和⽩银的⽬ 标位。后续重点关注两个⽅⾯，⼀是美国政府的停摆进展，以及停摆结束 后⾮农和通胀数据的披露，这可能形成短期降息预期层⾯的扰动。⼆是价 格波动率变化，若后续价格波动出现显著放⼤，会相应带来价格调整⻛险 的放⼤。 重点资讯： 1）美国9月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，预期增加5.1万人，前值增加 5.4万人。 2）美国9月ISM制造业PMI指数为49.1，预期为49，8月前值为48.7。 新订单指数48.9，预期50，前值51.4。在8月短暂扩张后，新订单指 数再次陷入收缩。就业指数45.3，预期44.3，前值43.8。物价支付指 数61.9，预期62.7，8月前值63.7，支付价格指数已连续三个月下 降。 3） 美国9月ISM非制造业PMI为50，预期51.7，前值52。新订单指数 降至50.4，几乎抹去前月的全部涨幅。就业指数连续第四个月萎缩， 萎缩速度有所放缓。支付价格指数 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-10-9 ⻩⾦突破4000美元关⼝，关注波动率和 美国政府停摆进展 ⾦银的价格波动率⼩幅抬升，但绝对位置仍处于偏低⽔准，价格尚未出现 4⽉的极端拥挤，短期上涨⾏情有望延续，我们分别上调⻩⾦和⽩银的⽬ 标位。后续重点关注两个⽅⾯，⼀是美国政府的停摆进展，以及停摆结束 后⾮农和通胀数据的披露，这可能形成短期降息预期层⾯的扰动。⼆是价 格波动率变化，若后续价格波动出现显著放⼤，会相应带来价格调整⻛险 的放⼤。 重点资讯： 1）美国9月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，预期增加5.1万人，前值增加 5.4万人。 2）美国9月ISM制造业PMI指数为49.1，预期为49，8月前值为48.7。 新订单指数48.9，预期50，前值51.4。在8月短暂扩张后，新订单指 数再次陷入收缩。就业指数45.3，预期44.3，前值43.8。物价支付指 数61.9，预期62.7，8月前值63.7，支付价格指数已连续三个月下 降。 3） 美国9月ISM非制造业PMI为50，预期51.7，前值52。新订单指数 降至50.4，几乎抹去前月的全部涨幅。就业指数连 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is hovering near the historical high of $3,700 per ounce due to the expectation of the Fed's upcoming interest - rate cut and the decline of US Treasury yields [1][3] - The first interest - rate cut is about to happen, and attention should be paid to the guidance on the subsequent path from the quarterly end interest - rate meeting. There can be a moderate optimism about the subsequent interest - rate cut space at the beginning of the interest - rate cut cycle [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Key Information - The US and China have reached a framework agreement on TikTok's ownership transfer to US control, to be confirmed in a call between US President Trump and Chinese leaders on Friday [2] - The Trump administration is taking actions to weaken China's global port network and place more strategic docks under Western control [2] - The central bank and the General Administration of Customs have optimized the "non - one - batch - one - certificate" policy for gold imports, expanding applicable customs from 10 to 15, extending the license validity period to 9 months and allowing multiple declarations within the validity period, which is beneficial to the gold trade [2] - Chinese leaders proposed a global governance initiative at the "SCO+" meeting, aiming to promote the multipolarization of the international monetary system and improve the global financial governance system [2] b) Price Logic - In the European session on Tuesday, gold hovered near the historical high of $3,700 per ounce. Market bets on the Fed's upcoming interest - rate cut continued to suppress the US dollar, driving up non - yielding assets. The market focus is on the Fed's policy meeting this week [3] - US economic data in August showed that retail sales and industrial output both exceeded expectations, causing short - term pressure on gold and silver. Meanwhile, the unexpected decline of Canada's CPI strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, and the probability of a rate cut this week in the swap market rose to 93% [3] c) Index Information - The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities includes special indices (Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index, PPI Commodity Index) with corresponding increases of +0.62%, +0.79%, +0.67%, and +0.39% respectively on September 16, 2025 [44] - The precious metals index on September 16, 2025, had a daily increase of +1.15%, a 5 - day increase of +1.69%, a 1 - month increase of +9.09%, and a year - to - date increase of +33.31% [45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The current expectation of interest rate cuts is the core driver for gold prices. US inflation and fundamental data are in line with this trend, causing gold prices to fluctuate at high levels. In the long - term, gold will still benefit from the contraction of the US dollar's credit [1][3]. - Although the continuous deterioration of non - farm data has temporarily suppressed the elasticity of silver prices, as the performance of US assets diverges and the market's trading of a soft landing continues to strengthen, silver prices are expected to challenge historical highs in the combination of a soft landing and interest rate cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Logic - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core driver. The 2 - year US Treasury bond has priced in the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the quarterly FOMC meeting on the subsequent path. The central bank's gold - buying behavior continues, and geopolitical conflicts have resurfaced, which is favorable for gold allocation. In the long - term, gold benefits from the contraction of the US dollar's credit [3]. - **Silver**: The continuous deterioration of non - farm data has temporarily suppressed silver's elasticity. However, as the US recession expectation weakens, the obstacle to silver's elasticity is removed. Silver prices are expected to challenge historical highs in the combination of a soft landing and interest rate cuts [3]. 3.2 Outlook Next week, focus on the FOMC meeting guidance and US retail data. The weekly range for spot London gold is [3500, 3800], and for spot London silver is [39, 45] [3]. 3.3 Key Information - China and the US delegations are holding talks in Madrid to resolve trade tensions, and the US and China are close to reaching an agreement on TikTok [2]. - A drone invaded Romanian airspace during a Russian attack on Ukrainian infrastructure, forcing Romania to scramble fighter jets [2]. - The Fed will hold a policy meeting on September 16 - 17. There are uncertainties regarding the attendance list due to a lawsuit to dismiss a Fed governor and a pending Senate approval for a new appointment [2]. 3.4 Index Information - On September 15, 2025, the comprehensive index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index is not detailed. The commodity index is 2239.53, up 0.50%; the commodity 20 index is 2507.34, up 0.37%; the industrial products index is 2254.68, up 0.90% [46]. - The precious metals index on September 15, 2025, has a daily decline of 0.27%, a 5 - day increase of 0.29%, a 1 - month increase of 7.34%, and a year - to - date increase of 31.79% [48].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are affected by Trump's repeated tariff threats and the number of initial jobless claims exceeding market expectations, with gold prices approaching the $3400 mark [2][3] - The gold market sentiment will turn positive as the trading on the short - term resilience of the US economy may end, and the market will return to the pricing logic of a weakening US fundamentals and the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle [5] - Gold has a long - term bullish trend. The slowdown of the US fundamentals and the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle provide medium - term drivers, and the contraction of the US dollar credit builds the long - term bullish foundation [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Putin and Trump may meet next week [4] - China's exports denominated in US dollars in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, reaching a three - month high, and the year - on - year growth rates of imports and exports both accelerated [4] - S&P Global confirmed China's long - term credit rating as A+ and said that China's strong fiscal stimulus measures would maintain economic growth resilience [4] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 2 was 226,000, exceeding the expected 221,000 [4] Price Logic - Gold prices rose slightly in the Asian trading session on Thursday but failed to break through the $3400/ounce mark. Trump's new tariff threats reignited market concerns about global trade conflicts, and the number of initial jobless claims exceeding expectations increased short - term safe - haven demand [5] - The expectation of the Fed restarting interest - rate cuts in September supported gold prices and pressured the US dollar, but the positive risk sentiment in global stock markets limited the increase in gold prices [5] Outlook - The weekly range for spot London gold is [3300, 3500], and for spot London silver is [36, 40] [8] - At the global central bank annual meeting in late August, Powell's statement is expected to change, and the accelerated pace of the Fed's leadership change may bring changes to the expected interest - rate path next year and concerns about the Fed's independence, amplifying price elasticity [8]