1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors due to factors such as trade policies, economic data, and central bank policies [2][3][4] - Precious metals: Gold is in a long - term uptrend with short - term fluctuations, while silver is currently strong. Steel market faces supply - demand imbalance, and the crude oil market has short - term support but long - term pressure [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News International News - US May non - farm payrolls added 139,000, exceeding expectations. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut by July is 16.5% [5] Domestic News - Canadian Prime Minister expressed willingness to restart Canada - China relations and strengthen cooperation in various fields [6] Industry News - As of June 6, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index increased by 167.64 points, and the China Export Container Freight Index rose by 3.3% [7] 3.2 Outer - disk Daily Earnings - S&P 500 increased by 0.09%, FTSE China A50 Futures decreased by 0.17%, and ICE Brent crude oil rose by 0.72% from June 6 to June 9 [8] 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Stock Index: Currently in a state of shock, with low implied volatility of stock index options. If there are new stimuli, it may choose a direction and increase volatility [10][11] - Treasury Bonds: Showed mixed performance. The market funds are relatively loose, and the price is supported to some extent, but it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of trade negotiations [12] Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: SC night session fluctuated upward. Short - term support exists, but long - term pressure comes from a 1.2 - million - barrel - per - day increase in production [4][13] - Methanol: Short - term bullish, with an increase in import arrivals expected [14] - Rubber: Supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak [15] - Polyolefins: May gradually stop falling and build a bottom, with limited driving force [16][17] - Glass/Soda Ash: Both are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the balance of supply and demand [18] Metal - Precious Metals: Gold is in shock, and silver is strong in the short term. The gold - silver ratio is being repaired [2][19] - Copper: May fluctuate in a range due to the balance of supply and demand factors [20] - Zinc: Short - term price may fluctuate widely, affected by factors such as US tariffs [21] - Aluminum: May fluctuate in the short term, with weakening demand [22][23] - Nickel: May show a shock - strong trend in the short term, with mixed supply and demand factors [24] - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamental situation has not improved substantially, and attention should be paid to low - level capital games [25] Black - Iron Ore: Has short - term support but may be weak in the later stage, affected by factors such as steel mill production and global shipments [26] - Steel: Faces a situation of weak supply and demand, with rebar weaker than hot - rolled coils in the short term [3][27] - Coking Coal/Coke: Futures prices are at a low level, and the market is uncertain. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback [28][29] Agricultural Products - Oils and Fats: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains, and attention should be paid to the MPOB report [30] - Protein Meal: Expected to be bullish in the short term due to improved US soybean export prospects and domestic inventory accumulation [31] - Corn/Corn Starch: The long - term supply gap may exist, and the main contract can be treated as bullish at a low level [32] - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure at a high level, and attention should be paid to export orders [33] Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the price increase in July and August [34][35]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States, highlighting the impact of recent economic data and policy decisions on various markets, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic and Trade Developments - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism took place from June 8 to June 13, with China's Ministry of Commerce stating that export controls on rare earths align with international practices [1]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, adding 60,000 ounces, although the pace of accumulation has slowed [1]. - US non-farm payrolls for May increased by 139,000, surpassing market expectations but marking the lowest growth since February [1][4]. Group 2: Precious Metals Market - The US non-farm data exceeded expectations, leading to a divergence in gold and silver prices, with gold experiencing a pullback while silver continued to strengthen [2][15]. - Concerns arose regarding the potential spread of tariffs on precious metals following President Trump's announcement to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% [2][15]. - The market anticipates a period of consolidation for gold and silver, with long-term support remaining clear, while short-term fluctuations may arise from US debt issues or potential quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve [2][15]. Group 3: Stock Indices - US stock indices showed an upward trend, with low volatility observed in the previous trading day [3][8]. - As of June 5, the financing balance in China increased by 4.599 billion yuan, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments in the stock market [3][8]. - Current valuation levels of major indices in China remain low, suggesting a high cost-effectiveness for long-term capital allocation [3][8]. Group 4: Crude Oil Market - Crude oil prices rose by 1.71% in the night session, supported by a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories by 4.304 million barrels [10]. - The market is currently influenced by seasonal demand peaks and geopolitical issues, although long-term production increases pose a downside risk to prices [10]. - The potential for US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran remains a critical factor to monitor in the crude oil market [10]. Group 5: Domestic and International News - Canadian Prime Minister expressed willingness to restore relations with China, indicating a potential for increased cooperation in trade and other sectors [5]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported an increase in the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index, reflecting a rise in shipping costs [7].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming trade talks between the U.S. and China in London are significant, with potential implications for technology sanctions and tariffs, as well as the broader economic landscape [1][2][6]. Group 1: Trade Talks - The meeting will take place in London, a neutral location, symbolizing equality and historical significance as the first country to reach a trade agreement with Trump [2]. - The U.S. delegation includes key figures: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Ross, and Trade Representative Lighthizer, indicating a serious approach to negotiations [3][4]. - The involvement of Commerce Secretary Ross suggests that technology sanctions will be a topic of discussion, which could indicate a shift in U.S. policy [3][6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - There is speculation that the U.S. may make concessions during the talks, such as easing technology sanctions or extending tariff suspension periods, which could positively impact the market [6]. - The outcome of these negotiations is expected to influence market movements, particularly in the A-share market [6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Trump has been pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates significantly, citing the need to reduce government borrowing costs [7][11]. - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120%, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [11][12]. - The urgency for rate cuts is driven by the impending maturity of a substantial amount of U.S. debt, which could lead to increased interest expenses if rates remain high [12].

特朗普团队似乎对美欧关税战，势在必得？现在来看，欧洲也开始在有计划的反击美国。 欧洲央行在2025年6月5日又降了25个基点，存款利率降到2.0%，这已经是去年6月以来的第八次降息了，和市场猜的一样。行长拉加德直接说："降息周期 快结束了，现在这利率水平够用了。"不过还是留了点余地，可能9月再降最后一次。 5月份欧元区通胀率降到1.9%，这是2025年第一次低于2%的目标，而且核心通胀（去掉能源和食品）也从4月的2.7%降到2.3%，服务业的涨价也慢下来了。 说白了，物价稳住了，央行不用再拼命降息了。 反观大洋彼岸的美联储，那叫一个焦头烂额。美元在全球外汇储备里的份额已经缩水到58%，创下1994年以来的新低，欧元倒是稳坐20%的交椅。美国今年 初开始利率一直卡在4.25%-4.5%，明明关税推高了物价（通胀预期涨到2.8%），经济衰退风险也大，但就是不敢降息。结果美国老百姓消费信心跌到五年 最低，美元指数也跌到99.24。 虽然美国关税威胁挺吓人，但欧元区经济还算撑住了，今年GDP预计增长0.9%，就业市场也还稳，老百姓收入涨了点，消费能顶住。 目前，美元在全球外汇储备里的比例降到了58%（1994年以来最 ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that Trump's trade war with China is ultimately self-defeating, as it undermines U.S. credibility and worsens domestic economic issues [1][3][28] - Trump's 90-day extension for negotiations is perceived as a way to allow U.S. companies to stockpile Chinese goods, rather than a genuine effort to resolve trade disputes [3][5] - The warning to 18 countries about potential tariffs reflects a hardline stance, but many nations are skeptical and may delay negotiations, expecting Trump to backtrack [5][7] Group 2 - The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's indicates a significant loss of trust in the U.S. government's ability to manage its debt, which stands at $36 trillion [7][9] - The U.S. faces a fiscal crisis, with interest payments on debt consuming 30% of federal revenue, and projections suggest debt could reach 134% of GDP by 2035 [9][11] - The tax system in the U.S. disproportionately benefits the wealthy, allowing them to avoid significant taxation through various loopholes, exacerbating income inequality [11][13] Group 3 - The outsourcing of manufacturing jobs to countries like China has contributed to the decline of the U.S. industrial base, leading to economic hardship in regions once reliant on these industries [17][19] - The political landscape in the U.S. is heavily influenced by wealthy donors, which raises concerns about the integrity of policy-making and the prioritization of corporate interests over public welfare [22][24] - The ongoing issues in the U.S. economy, such as high debt levels and tax avoidance by the wealthy, are not caused by external factors like China, but rather by internal systemic problems [26][28]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. debt issue has become a significant challenge for the Trump administration, with potential economic repercussions if not addressed, particularly as the midterm elections approach [1] Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - Starting in 2024, the U.S. will need to repay $10 trillion in dollar debt annually, with monthly debt maturities exceeding $2 trillion, putting additional strain on the Trump administration's fiscal situation [2] - The overall U.S. debt has surpassed $36 trillion, and if the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates, the interest payments alone will be substantial [10] - The recent passage of the "Great Beautiful Act" by the House of Representatives to raise the debt ceiling indicates a further increase in public debt, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio from 98% to 125% [10] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Trump has personally met with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to discuss economic issues, marking their first formal meeting since 2019 [4] - Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve's primary task is to maintain economic stability rather than cater to political demands, indicating a separation between government and Federal Reserve actions [7][9] - Trump criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates, suggesting it could disadvantage the U.S. in global competition, particularly against China [7] Group 3: Economic Theories and Future Implications - The historical approach of increasing debt by U.S. administrations follows Keynesian principles, assuming future generations will resolve these issues [11] - Recent downgrades in U.S. credit ratings and Japan's selling of U.S. debt signal potential limits to the U.S. debt accumulation strategy, raising concerns about the future stability of the dollar [11]

"' 狼 ' 已经逼近家门口 " "大而美"法案难解美国政府债台高筑的困局，导致市场对此并不买账。市场上，美债抛售压力挥之难去，收益率居高难下。 【环球时报报道 记者 倪浩】"我认为一项法案可以规模庞大，也可以很美，但我觉得它很难两者兼得。"美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）28日引述 美国亿万富翁马斯克在接受专访时的话报道称，他对此前在众议院通过并得到特朗普支持的"大而美"税收与支出法案（下称"大而美"法案）感 到"很失望"，称其破坏了"政府效率部"（DOGE）团队的工作。该言论引发媒体对马斯克与特朗普的关系，以及美国债务问题的广泛关注。当 前"大而美"法案仍在"难产"中，法案本身的错综复杂和美国内部的严重分歧，进一步增加了法案落地的难度，也使得美国债务上限问题久拖不 决，美债持续震荡。 美国众议院上周以一票优势惊险通过"大而美"法案，接下来该法案提交参议院进行投票。英国《金融时报》报道称，尽管"大而美"法案削减了一 些财政开支，但仍遭到"赤字鹰派"（通常强硬主张通过一系列措施减少财政赤字——编者注）强烈批评。据估计，该法案将在未来十年内增加美 国国债负担逾3.3万亿美元。而马斯克长期以来一直声称，如果赤字不减 ...

然而，围绕少数人来构建退休制度并不合理。有些人62岁无法工作，并不意味着每个人都应该享有在这 个年龄退休的权利。那些因伤病需要提前退休的人可以享受其他社会福利。但对于其他人来说，提前退 休年龄应该在未来10年内逐步提高到65岁。此外，还可以采取更多措施，提高老年工人对雇主的吸引 力。 当然，仅仅提高提前退休年龄并不能弥补整个社会保障资金缺口。如果提高提前退休年龄，并将其与预 期寿命挂钩，那么社会保障资金缺口将减少14%到50%，因此还需要其他配套措施。只提高提前退休年 龄也并不利于社会公平，因为富人往往寿命更长，而提前退休在低收入群体更为常见。这就是为什么提 高提前退休年龄应该与对年收入25万美元以上的人征收2.5%的工资税同时实施。这比承诺只对富人增 税或选择扩大赤字更为现实、公平且负责。 美国债务问题由来已久 人们很容易将穆迪下调美国评级视为无关紧要的事情。实际上，债务问题由来已久，评级机构在近几十 年来也失去了很多信誉。 《日本时报》 5 月 22 日文章，原题：解决美国债务问题，美国人必须推迟退休 美国如果不进行福利改 革，就无法解决债务危机，这意味着美国人必须推迟退休并缴纳更多税款。近日，国际信用评 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Due to the continuous improvement in tariff situation expectations, the market's risk aversion sentiment has marginally declined, the US dollar index has strengthened in the short - term, and precious metals in the Shanghai market have continued to correct. The US consumer confidence index in May was significantly higher than expected. The positive progress in tariff negotiations has boosted the short - term strength of the US dollar, putting pressure on the gold price. In the short term, the safe - haven demand for gold may be relatively weakened, and there is a possibility of continued correction. In the medium to long term, the US debt problem may lead to a long - term global trend of de - dollarization, which is structurally beneficial to the gold price. The repeated geopolitical situations in the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine will still boost the safe - haven property of gold. The gold purchase demand of central banks in emerging countries and the continuous net inflow of gold ETFs indicate a stable investment demand for gold. For silver, the improvement in economic expectations provides some support, but it is strongly correlated with the gold price, and it may maintain a volatile pattern recently [2]. Summary According to the Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 772.28 yuan/gram, up 0.68 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 8225 yuan/kilogram, up 8 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 199,056 hands, down 5,739 hands; those of Shanghai silver were 350,276 hands, down 14,143 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 121,281 hands, up 466 hands; those of Shanghai silver were 162,070 hands, up 4,748 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 17,247 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver was 1,006,250 kilograms, up 17,930 kilograms [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 766.06 yuan/gram, down 10.94 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8211 yuan/kilogram, down 22 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 6.22 yuan/gram, down 11.62 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 14 yuan/kilogram, down 30 yuan [2]. Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 922.46 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings were 14,217.5 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 163,981 contracts, up 2,772 contracts; those of silver in CTFC were 50,042 contracts, up 2,288 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 21.76%, down 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.11%, unchanged. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for gold was 27.52%, up 0.03%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option was 27.51%, up 0.02% [2]. Industry News - Trump said on social media that he was encouraged by the EU to speed up trade negotiations. The EU is seeking to speed up trade negotiations with the US, focusing on key industries, tariffs, and non - tariff barriers. Hassett said that the tariffs of some countries may be reduced to 10% or lower, and the trade agreement with India is close to completion. Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, signed a law recognizing gold and silver as legal tender in the state to protect Floridians from the impact of the US dollar depreciation. The US consumer confidence index in May rose significantly from 85.7 in April to 98, higher than all economists' expectations [2].

首先，外部环境有所扰动，国内股市表现出较强韧性。上周末，美国总统特朗普表示要对欧洲加征 关税，引发相关各国的股市出现一定的调整。再加上近期美国国债发行认购积极性下滑，中标利率上 行，美国债务问题再次成为全球市场的焦点，投资者风险偏好有所下降。周一香港市场受到影响出现小 幅调整，但 A 股市场表现出韧性，主要宽基指数呈现小幅波动，大幅个股出现上涨。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指反弹遇阻，短期进入调整状态。沪指于 4 月中旬逐步企稳反弹，经过一个 多月的反弹，受到来自于今年一季度的市场高点和去年四季度的成交密集区的压力，遇阻回落，近两周 呈现出高点下移，低点同步下移的调整态势。周一盘中低点获得60 天均线的支撑，后期仍需密切关注 该均线的支撑力度。 其次，两市震荡分化，成交萎缩。周一，两市小幅低开后，略有反弹，但随后又陷入调整趋势，盘 中沪指止跌于 60 天均线上方，尾盘略有收回。两市量能在 1 万亿元左右，较上周五有所下降。微观结 构上，全天个股涨多跌少，涨停股票数量较多。当天市场热点主要集中在 TMT 行业。投资风格方面， 中小盘涨幅领先，大盘蓝筹表现低迷。 风险提示：国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回 ...