Group 1 - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.63%, the S&P 500 by 0.55%, and the Dow Jones by 0.25%, marking new closing highs since late February and early March respectively [1] - Major tech stocks experienced upward movement, with Intel increasing nearly 8%, Tesla over 5%, and other companies like Google, Meta, and Apple showing modest gains [1] - The positive market performance was attributed to optimistic signals from U.S. Commerce Secretary, indicating progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations [1] Group 2 - The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook report casts a shadow over global economic prospects, lowering the 2025 growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating a potential slowdown not seen since the 2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic [2] - The report warns that the 2020s could be the worst decade for economic performance since the Apollo moon landing, with global trade growth expected to drop to 1.8% in 2025 from 3.4% in 2024 [2] - The World Bank anticipates that nearly 60% of developing economies will face economic slowdowns this year, a downgrade from previous forecasts [2] Group 3 - The Trump administration is appealing a court ruling that deemed the imposition of reciprocal tariffs illegal, arguing that halting these tariffs could lead to "irreparable economic and national security harm" [3] - A recent ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) ordered the suspension of these tariffs, but a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them shortly after [3]

Group 1 - JPMorgan's strategists, led by Jay Barry, have raised their forecast for the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at the end of 2025 to 4.35%, up from a previous estimate of 4% [1] - The forecast for the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield at the end of the year has also been increased to 3.5%, previously estimated at 3% [1] - The easing of trade tensions initiated by President Trump is expected to benefit U.S. economic growth, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has significantly downgraded its global economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points, predicting that global growth will fall below 2% this year, marking the weakest growth rate since 2009 when excluding pandemic effects [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to slow down to a year-on-year growth rate of below 0.5% by the fourth quarter of this year, described as crawling speed rather than recession [1] - The potential for the U.S. economy to slip into recession is heightened due to weak growth, which could be exacerbated by additional negative shocks [1] Trade and Tariff Impacts - Tariffs are anticipated to further restrict the supply of goods in the U.S., with a significant rise in core consumer prices expected over the next 12 months [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, combined with inflation and rising inflation expectations, diminishes the likelihood of an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the short term [1] Trade Balance Perspectives - The insistence of the Trump administration on achieving trade balance with various countries is viewed as "very strange" and impractical, as trade surpluses will persist regardless of U.S. policies [1] - China is perceived to have sufficient resilience to cope with Trump's tariff policies, maintaining substantial export volumes to Europe, the U.S., and other emerging markets [1] - Compared to countries like Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam, China's exposure to U.S. tariff risks is considered relatively low [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, emphasizes that hard data does not misinterpret or misunderstand the growth rate and inflation of the U.S. economy [1] Group 1 - Daly's statement suggests confidence in the reliability of hard economic data in assessing the U.S. economic situation [1] - The focus on hard data indicates a potential shift away from reliance on softer indicators, which may lead to more informed monetary policy decisions [1] - The assertion may influence market expectations regarding future Federal Reserve actions, particularly in relation to interest rates and inflation management [1]