Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to initiate a small interest rate cut in September, influenced by rising inflation data and pressure from the White House, despite the current economic indicators not supporting a large-scale reduction [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with the core CPI rising by 3.1%, indicating that inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2% [1]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Fed closely monitors, was reported at 2.6% for June, up from 2.4% and 2.2% in previous months, justifying the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates [2]. - The unemployment rate in July was stable at 4.2%, a significant decrease from the peak of 14.8% in April 2020, suggesting a recovery in the labor market [3]. Government Debt and Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. government is approaching a "technical default," with projections indicating that 30% of government revenue in fiscal year 2025 will be allocated to debt interest payments, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [4]. - The ongoing high-interest payments on national debt create a paradox with the Fed's high interest rates, leading to concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and potential market reactions [4]. Market Reactions - Since April, there has been a notable sell-off of ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds, reflecting growing market anxiety regarding the U.S. debt repayment crisis and the sustainability of government revenue [4].

Core Insights - The overall increase in spending is attributed to various factors, including rising public debt interest payments, increased social security expenditures, and other costs [1] - The U.S. is facing another significant annual deficit, with the budget deficit exceeding $1.6 trillion over the past ten months as of the end of the fiscal year in September [1] - Treasury Secretary Basent previously projected that tariff revenues could reach $300 billion in fiscal year 2025, with potential for higher revenues in 2026 [1] - Structural pressures, including public debt interest and welfare spending, are seen as key determinants of the U.S. fiscal outlook [1] - One of the most severe challenges for U.S. finances is the rising debt interest, with interest payments reaching $91.9 billion in July, leading to a cumulative interest expenditure exceeding $1 trillion in the first ten months of the fiscal year [1] - Total interest on U.S. national debt has become the second-largest expenditure category for the government, following social security [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how Trump's policies have shifted from targeting illegal immigration to imposing financial burdens on both American citizens and foreign nationals, indicating a desperate attempt to generate revenue amid a fiscal crisis [1][5][10]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Trump's introduction of the "Gold Card" program, priced at $5 million, aimed to provide benefits similar to those of U.S. citizens, but was soon followed by a more direct requirement for all entrants to pay a security deposit ranging from $15,000 to $50,000 [1][3]. - The rationale behind these fees is framed as a matter of "national security," particularly targeting individuals from economically disadvantaged countries, which raises questions about the legitimacy of this justification [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Context - The article highlights the current fiscal challenges faced by the U.S., with a national debt nearing $40 trillion and interest payments on this debt surpassing defense spending at $1.3 trillion [10]. - It notes that the U.S. economy is no longer able to attract global capital as it once did, leading to a decline in tax revenues while national debt continues to rise [7][10]. Group 3: Future Implications - The article suggests that the "security deposit" policy is a form of taxation aimed at filling fiscal gaps, which may become increasingly stringent over time [8][10]. - It warns that if the current trend continues, the U.S. could face a severe economic crisis, as the interest on national debt may soon exceed total fiscal revenues [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar is expected to depreciate significantly, especially if the new Federal Reserve Chairman takes swift action to lower interest rates [1][4] - As of September 2024, the assets managed by DoubleLine Capital amount to $95 billion [1] - The dollar has entered a multi-year downtrend due to investor concerns over the US's large fiscal deficit, leading to a shift in investments to other regions [1][4] Group 2 - A major negative factor for the dollar is President Trump's push to lower borrowing costs, which raises questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve [4] - Recent economic data indicates a weaker labor market than previously expected, and inflation indicators favored by the Federal Reserve have risen, putting additional pressure on the dollar [4] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has seen a cumulative decline of over 7% this year, despite a recent 0.2% increase [4] Group 3 - The biggest threat to the theory of dollar depreciation is the potential return of "exceptionalism" policies in the US, which could boost demand for US assets [5] - The investment manager is closely monitoring commitments from trade partners, including the EU and Japan, to invest billions into the US, which could offset capital outflows [5] - The speed of global savings returning to the US is expected to be slower than in the past, aside from trade agreements [5]

Core Insights - The average global tariff rate imposed by the U.S. is estimated to be around 18% according to BlueBay Asset Management [1] - The projected annual revenue from U.S. tariffs is approximately $450 billion, with an expected increase to $770 billion in 2024, representing 1.25% of GDP [1] - This tariff revenue is anticipated to help reduce the U.S. fiscal deficit to slightly below 7% of GDP in the coming year [1]

Core Points - The "Big and Beautiful" Act signed by President Trump is expected to increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade and result in 10 million people losing health insurance by 2034 [1] - The act includes $1.1 trillion in net spending cuts but results in a tax revenue decrease of $4.5 trillion, leading to a significant fiscal gap [1] - The act extends many tax cuts from the 2017 tax reform and provides additional tax relief for tips and overtime pay over the next four years [1] Group 1 - The act includes new military spending and budget for large-scale deportation policies while cutting Medicaid, food assistance for low-income families, and clean energy funding [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that modifications to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) will lower average premiums by 0.6% but will ultimately lead to 10 million additional people losing health insurance [1] Group 2 - Public opinion polls indicate that the act is generally unpopular among the American public, with Democrats criticizing it as a tax plan tailored for the wealthy [2] - Republicans argue that the act is designed for working-class and middle-income families, emphasizing the positive impact of tax cuts on wages and job opportunities [2] - Fitch Ratings expressed concerns about the U.S. fiscal health, projecting that government deficits will remain above 7% of GDP and that the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 135% by 2029 [2] Group 3 - Fitch also raised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. from 1.2% to 1.5% for 2025, but noted that growth momentum is expected to slow within the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the recently signed tax and spending bill, known as the "Big and Beautiful" plan, will increase the U.S. deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" plan is projected to significantly contribute to the U.S. deficit, with an estimated increase of $3.4 trillion over a ten-year period [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold continues to fluctuate while silver shows relative strength. The US retail sales monthly rate increased by 0.6%, far exceeding the expected 0.1%. There were rumors that Trump considered firing Powell, which he later denied, but the Trump administration tried to influence market expectations through potential new Fed chair candidates. The US CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year in June, the largest increase this year, cooling short - term rate - cut expectations. Trump postponed the tariff deadline for major trading countries, but there is a risk of the final tariff threat being partially realized. With good economic data recently, the expectation of the Fed's early rate cut has cooled, and the US dollar has stabilized and rebounded. Although the impact of the tariff policy shown by US data is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China has continuously increased its gold holdings, providing long - term support for gold, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is boosted by industrial products and shows relative strength. Recently, it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of Trump's threats being realized, and gold and silver may continue to show a relatively strong oscillatory performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Precious Metals Futures**: For gold futures, the current prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 774.60 and 779.14 respectively, with price increases of 0.64 and 0.76, and price increase rates of 0.08% and 0.10%. For silver futures, the current prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 9246.00 and 9292.00 respectively, with price increases of 106.00 and price increase rates of 1.16% and 1.15%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract are also provided [2]. - **Related Indices and Assets**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.6419, 6297.36, 4.47, 69.65, and 7.1847 respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.36%, 0.54%, 0.22%, 0.01%, and 0.06% [2]. Spot Market - **Precious Metals Spot**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London gold, and London silver are given, along with their price changes and price change rates. The price of Shanghai Gold T + D decreased by 1.28 with a decline rate of - 0.17%, London gold decreased by 1.24 with a decline rate of - 0.16%, and London silver increased by 0.28 with an increase rate of 0.75% [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of spreads such as沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai gold/London gold, and Shanghai silver/London silver are provided, as well as their previous values [2]. Inventory - The current inventories of precious metals in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, etc. are given. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory remains unchanged at 28,872 kilograms, the silver inventory increased by 4,296.00 kilograms to 1,217,085 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased by 346,352.72 ounces to 37,143,884 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 493,426 ounces to 496,688,541 ounces [2]. Derivatives - The current positions of spdr gold ETF, SLV silver ETF, and CFTC speculators' net positions in gold and silver are provided. The spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF positions both increased by 1.00 ton to 44,315 tons. The CFTC speculators' net position in silver increased by 481 to 33,486, and the net position in gold decreased by 1,451 to 32,895 [2]. Macroeconomic News - The US Treasury Secretary Bentsen privately advised Trump not to fire Fed Chairman Powell, warning of economic, political, and legal consequences. Trump said he didn't need anyone to explain the pros and cons. Ukraine has invited Russia to hold a new round of negotiations this week, with the negotiation date to be determined, and Istanbul will be the location for the third direct Russia - Ukraine negotiation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" passed by the U.S. Congress is expected to further increase the fiscal deficit, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy in the medium term [3][4][5]. Group 1: Impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" - The act is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3.3 trillion from FY2025 to FY2035, surpassing the previous estimate of $2.8 trillion [5]. - The act extends tax cuts from Trump's first term but reduces government spending through measures like cutting child tax credits and lowering renewable energy subsidies [4][5]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the annual fiscal deficit could exceed $2 trillion, which is over 6% of GDP, indicating a significant fiscal challenge ahead [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Context of Tariff Revenue - Historically, tariffs were a major source of U.S. government revenue, accounting for up to 90% of total revenue from 1790 to 1860, but this has significantly declined over the years [6][7]. - By 2024, tariffs are expected to contribute approximately 1.6% to total U.S. fiscal revenue, which is a modest recovery compared to historical levels [8]. Group 3: Recent Trends in Tariff Revenue - In June, U.S. tariff revenue exceeded $27 billion, significantly higher than previous estimates, indicating a potential short-term boost to fiscal income [9][10]. - The increase in tariff revenue may be influenced by temporary factors, such as strong import activity, which may not be sustainable in the long run [10][11]. Group 4: Uncertainties Surrounding Tariff Policy - The sustainability of current tariff rates is uncertain, as potential negotiations with trading partners could lead to reductions in tariffs, impacting future revenue [11][12]. - The overall economic impact of tariff policies on U.S. growth and fiscal revenue remains unclear, with potential retaliatory measures from other countries posing additional risks [12][13]. Group 5: Need for Comprehensive Fiscal Solutions - Relying solely on tariff revenue to address the growing fiscal deficit is insufficient, as even optimistic projections suggest limited contributions relative to the overall deficit [14]. - Achieving medium-term fiscal balance will require a multifaceted approach beyond just increasing tariff revenues [14].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. fiscal deficit is on an unsustainable path, which may lead to financial stability issues in the future [1] Group 1 - The current trajectory of the U.S. fiscal deficit raises concerns about long-term sustainability [1] - Potential implications of the fiscal deficit include risks to financial stability [1]