Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive time since early 2025 that rates have been held steady, despite increasing pressure from the White House for rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve noted a slowdown in U.S. economic growth in the first half of the year, which could provide a basis for future rate cuts if the trend continues [3]. - The Fed emphasized high uncertainty in the economic outlook, with risks to both inflation and employment targets [3]. - Two Fed governors voted against the decision to maintain rates, indicating deepening internal divisions regarding monetary policy [1][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Influences - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the current monetary policy stance allows the Fed to respond promptly to potential economic developments, with future adjustments depending on comprehensive evidence, including employment, inflation, and economic activity data [3][5]. - Powell highlighted that tariffs have raised prices on certain goods, suggesting that 30% to 40% of core inflation may be influenced by tariffs, which could be a key factor in delaying rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Political Pressure and Internal Disagreements - President Trump has publicly pressured the Fed for significant rate cuts, even threatening to dismiss Powell, which reflects a tense relationship between the Fed and the White House [6][11]. - The dissenting votes from the two governors, both appointed by Trump, align with concerns over a weakening labor market and the potential for increased recession risks if rates are not lowered [7][11]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the Fed's decision, market expectations for a rate cut in September significantly decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 68% to 45% [12]. - Despite the drop in rate cut expectations, the U.S. stock market showed resilience, with mixed performance among major indices, indicating that investor sentiment remains cautious yet stable [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, particularly whether Jerome Powell will hint at a rate cut in September [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Divisions - There is a growing split among Federal Reserve officials about the future direction of monetary policy [1] - Some members advocate for a cautious approach, while others push for immediate action to address economic concerns [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Speculation - Market speculation is rising about the possibility of a rate cut in September, influenced by recent economic data [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring Powell's upcoming statements for any indications of a shift in policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve meeting witnessed a dramatic split with two dissenting votes from Bowman and Waller, causing significant turmoil in global financial markets as they opposed the anticipated interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Key Players and Their Positions - Bowman, representing the aggressive rate hike faction, advocates for an immediate 50 basis point increase to combat persistent inflation, particularly in housing and services, which have seen year-on-year increases exceeding 6% [2] - Waller, leading the hawkish faction, supports pausing rate hikes but insists on removing any language suggesting potential rate cuts, thereby shattering market expectations for easing [2] - Powell and the majority of committee members represent the status quo, opting for a compromise by pausing rate hikes while keeping the option open for future increases, hinting that rate cuts will depend on sustained declines in inflation [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the dissenting votes, the US dollar index surged by 1.5%, reaching a three-month high, indicating that internal divisions within the Fed lead to a stronger dollar as a safe haven [3] - Gold prices plummeted by $40, falling below the $1900 mark, reflecting the market's reaction to heightened expectations of aggressive rate hikes [3] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 22 basis points, signaling that the bond market anticipates continued monetary tightening [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Signals - Investors are advised to closely monitor the "Bowman Indicator," specifically the US services CPI, as a reading above 5% for three consecutive months could trigger renewed fears of rate hikes [5] - Understanding Waller's rhetoric is crucial; phrases like "data-dependent" may indicate readiness for rate hikes, while "cautious approach" suggests no rate cuts are forthcoming [6] - A suggested investment strategy includes a portfolio allocation of 70% in cash, 15% in energy stocks, and 15% in volatility hedging tools to navigate the current market uncertainty [6] Group 4: Potential Risks and Future Outlook - The looming risk of a technical default arises if the debt ceiling is not resolved before October, compounded by Bowman and Waller's resistance to easing [6] - The commercial real estate sector faces significant challenges with record vacancy rates and high-interest rates potentially leading to loan defaults, which could trigger a regional banking crisis [6] - A sudden OPEC+ production cut could reignite inflation, bolstering support for the Bowman faction and forcing the Fed to make difficult decisions that could impact the stock market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the upcoming meeting, with a very low probability of a rate cut at only 3% [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Internal Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is likely to face significant internal dissent, with the possibility of multiple board members voting against the decision for the first time in over 30 years [3] - Recent criticism from the White House, particularly from President Trump, has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate government debt costs [2] - Analysts predict that board members Waller and Bowman may vote against the decision, expressing concerns that current rates are too high given rising employment risks [10] Group 2: Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - Wall Street institutions anticipate minimal changes in the Federal Reserve's statement, particularly regarding the assessment of economic uncertainty [7] - The upcoming GDP data release is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's statement, with expectations of a downgrade in economic growth assessment from "solid" to "moderate" [8] - Investors currently assign a probability of over 60% for a rate cut in September, although the Federal Reserve may not want to raise this expectation before reviewing economic data [13] Group 3: Powell's Press Conference Insights - Powell's press conference is expected to address the potential for a September rate cut, with indications that the decision will depend on forthcoming economic data [15] - The impact of tariffs on inflation and economic conditions is likely to be a key topic, as the Federal Reserve has previously expressed caution regarding the effects of tariffs on pricing [17] - Political pressures from the Trump administration are anticipated to be a significant theme during Powell's press conference, with questions about whether these pressures affect policy-making [19]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate during the upcoming meeting, with increasing market speculation about potential rate cuts in the fall due to ongoing debates among officials and economic data releases [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve is under pressure from President Trump to lower borrowing costs, while some officials advocate for maintaining current rates to support a slowing labor market [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve may lead to a historic situation where two members vote against the decision, which has not occurred since 1993 [2][4]. - The upcoming interest rate decision coincides with the release of key economic data, including the monthly employment report, which is expected to show a slowdown in job growth due to trade policy uncertainties [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Recent inflation reports indicate that while some prices have risen due to tariffs, the core inflation rate has remained below expectations for five consecutive months, suggesting limited widespread price pressure [4][5]. - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve may resume a rate-cutting cycle in October, with a series of 25 basis point cuts expected by mid-2026 [4][5]. - The market is closely monitoring upcoming employment reports and other economic data to gauge the potential for interest rate adjustments in September [5][6]. Group 3: Jerome Powell's Position - Jerome Powell is likely to face questions regarding tariffs and inflation during the press conference, but he may emphasize the Fed's responsibility to maintain price stability given that inflation is still above the 2% target [5][6]. - Powell's responses are anticipated to focus on economic factors rather than political pressures, as he aims to reaffirm the Fed's commitment to its mandated responsibilities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices and the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, which may impact future market trends [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices have recently experienced a short-term surge followed by a decline, indicating volatility in the market [1] - The internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve could lead to uncertainty in monetary policy, affecting investor sentiment towards gold [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The article promotes a free training camp for gold investment, led by the chief analyst from Guoxin Futures, suggesting a proactive approach to educate investors on navigating the current market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve exhibits significant internal divisions regarding interest rate predictions, with a median expectation of two rate cuts by 2025, but a wide range of forecasts from no cuts to a reduction of 75 basis points, highlighting a notable split among policymakers [1][3]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The degree of disagreement among Federal Reserve officials is at a ten-year high, primarily due to fundamental differences in balancing inflation control and economic growth [3][4]. - The June SEP report indicates a polarized distribution of predictions for the federal funds rate in 2025, with a gap of 50 basis points between the most common and second most common forecasts, the highest in the past decade [4][11]. - The internal split among officials suggests potential for more debates and dissent in the coming months, although the uncertainty regarding the 2025 rate path is not unprecedented [6][10]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Despite a high level of disagreement on core PCE inflation predictions, which reached a one percentage point divergence, this has not translated into a historic split in federal funds rate expectations, partly due to a relative consensus on unemployment rate forecasts [9][10]. - The dual peak distribution in the June dot plot reflects fundamental disagreements on how to balance inflation control with economic growth, with some officials concerned about the risks of economic slowdown while others focus on persistent inflation [11].