Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the upcoming meeting, with a very low probability of a rate cut at only 3% [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Internal Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is likely to face significant internal dissent, with the possibility of multiple board members voting against the decision for the first time in over 30 years [3] - Recent criticism from the White House, particularly from President Trump, has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate government debt costs [2] - Analysts predict that board members Waller and Bowman may vote against the decision, expressing concerns that current rates are too high given rising employment risks [10] Group 2: Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - Wall Street institutions anticipate minimal changes in the Federal Reserve's statement, particularly regarding the assessment of economic uncertainty [7] - The upcoming GDP data release is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's statement, with expectations of a downgrade in economic growth assessment from "solid" to "moderate" [8] - Investors currently assign a probability of over 60% for a rate cut in September, although the Federal Reserve may not want to raise this expectation before reviewing economic data [13] Group 3: Powell's Press Conference Insights - Powell's press conference is expected to address the potential for a September rate cut, with indications that the decision will depend on forthcoming economic data [15] - The impact of tariffs on inflation and economic conditions is likely to be a key topic, as the Federal Reserve has previously expressed caution regarding the effects of tariffs on pricing [17] - Political pressures from the Trump administration are anticipated to be a significant theme during Powell's press conference, with questions about whether these pressures affect policy-making [19]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate during the upcoming meeting, with increasing market speculation about potential rate cuts in the fall due to ongoing debates among officials and economic data releases [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve is under pressure from President Trump to lower borrowing costs, while some officials advocate for maintaining current rates to support a slowing labor market [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve may lead to a historic situation where two members vote against the decision, which has not occurred since 1993 [2][4]. - The upcoming interest rate decision coincides with the release of key economic data, including the monthly employment report, which is expected to show a slowdown in job growth due to trade policy uncertainties [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Recent inflation reports indicate that while some prices have risen due to tariffs, the core inflation rate has remained below expectations for five consecutive months, suggesting limited widespread price pressure [4][5]. - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve may resume a rate-cutting cycle in October, with a series of 25 basis point cuts expected by mid-2026 [4][5]. - The market is closely monitoring upcoming employment reports and other economic data to gauge the potential for interest rate adjustments in September [5][6]. Group 3: Jerome Powell's Position - Jerome Powell is likely to face questions regarding tariffs and inflation during the press conference, but he may emphasize the Fed's responsibility to maintain price stability given that inflation is still above the 2% target [5][6]. - Powell's responses are anticipated to focus on economic factors rather than political pressures, as he aims to reaffirm the Fed's commitment to its mandated responsibilities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices and the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, which may impact future market trends [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices have recently experienced a short-term surge followed by a decline, indicating volatility in the market [1] - The internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve could lead to uncertainty in monetary policy, affecting investor sentiment towards gold [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The article promotes a free training camp for gold investment, led by the chief analyst from Guoxin Futures, suggesting a proactive approach to educate investors on navigating the current market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve exhibits significant internal divisions regarding interest rate predictions, with a median expectation of two rate cuts by 2025, but a wide range of forecasts from no cuts to a reduction of 75 basis points, highlighting a notable split among policymakers [1][3]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The degree of disagreement among Federal Reserve officials is at a ten-year high, primarily due to fundamental differences in balancing inflation control and economic growth [3][4]. - The June SEP report indicates a polarized distribution of predictions for the federal funds rate in 2025, with a gap of 50 basis points between the most common and second most common forecasts, the highest in the past decade [4][11]. - The internal split among officials suggests potential for more debates and dissent in the coming months, although the uncertainty regarding the 2025 rate path is not unprecedented [6][10]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Despite a high level of disagreement on core PCE inflation predictions, which reached a one percentage point divergence, this has not translated into a historic split in federal funds rate expectations, partly due to a relative consensus on unemployment rate forecasts [9][10]. - The dual peak distribution in the June dot plot reflects fundamental disagreements on how to balance inflation control with economic growth, with some officials concerned about the risks of economic slowdown while others focus on persistent inflation [11].