Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision as of July 30 maintains the upper limit at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations and previous values [1] Summary by Category Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve has set the interest rate upper limit at 4.5%, which is consistent with both market expectations and the prior rate [1]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.42%, while the 30-year yield increased to 4.96%, reflecting investor expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current interest rate of 4.25% - 4.50%, with a 97% probability of no change according to futures markets [4] - The upcoming economic data releases include job vacancies, ADP employment report, weekly unemployment claims, and the non-farm payroll report, which will be closely monitored by traders [4][5] Group 2 - A temporary trade agreement between the EU and the U.S. has been announced, reducing proposed tariffs on EU goods from 30% to 15%, which may ease trade tensions [3] - The U.S. Treasury Department has significantly raised its borrowing expectations for Q3 to $1.01 trillion, nearly doubling the previous estimate of $554 billion due to increased bond issuance following the debt ceiling increase [5] - The issuance of $154 billion in bonds by the U.S. Treasury includes $80 billion in 6-week bills, $44 billion in 7-year notes, and $30 billion in 2-year floating rate notes [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that optimism regarding trade agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, leading to a downward trend in gold prices [1] - Gold prices experienced a decline, reaching a low of approximately $3350 before rebounding slightly to close at $3367, marking two consecutive days of losses [1] - The unexpected improvement in the US labor market data has further strengthened the US dollar and US Treasury yields, exerting significant downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, likely trading within the range of $3390 to $3340, with key levels to watch being $3380 and $3350 [2] - The market is advised to adopt a cautious approach ahead of major upcoming events, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the expiration of US tariff policies, suggesting a preference for reduced trading activity [2] - A specific trading strategy is recommended, suggesting to short gold at $3362-$3363 with a stop loss at $3370 and a target of $3340 [3]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% for the fourth consecutive time since the end of 2024, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [3][4] - The U.S. economy has shown resilience with a projected GDP growth rate of approximately 2.8% for 2024, despite challenges, and the unemployment rate remained low at 4.2% in December 2024 [4][5] - Inflation remains a concern, with the core PCE price index dropping to 2.1% in early 2024 but rebounding to 2.8% by May 2025, prompting the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach [4][5] Monetary Policy Dynamics - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on maximizing employment and maintaining price stability, leading to a shift from aggressive rate hikes to a more cautious stance [5] - Following a series of rate increases from near-zero to a peak of 5.33%, the Fed has since implemented three rate cuts in 2024, bringing the current rate to 4.25% to 4.5% [5] - Economic forecasts for 2025 indicate a GDP growth adjustment from 1.7% to 1.4% and a slight rise in unemployment to 4.5%, highlighting the need for careful policy balancing [5][6] External Influences - Global economic uncertainties, particularly changes in trade policies and tariffs, have impacted the Fed's decision-making process, necessitating a cautious approach to rate adjustments [6] - The Fed's policy contrasts with other central banks, which have initiated rate cuts, reflecting the relative strength of the U.S. economy and the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [6] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision on June 18, 2025, U.S. stock markets reacted moderately, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.2% and the S&P 500 slightly declining by 0.03% [7] - Market expectations suggest two potential rate cuts in 2025, with probabilities of maintaining rates in July at 89% and a 61% chance of a cut in September [7] Impact on Consumers - The current interest rate environment, while lower than 2023 peaks, remains high, affecting borrowing costs for consumers, particularly in housing and auto loans [8] - The average 30-year mortgage rate stood at approximately 6.7% in March 2025, significantly higher than 3.0% in 2021, leading to reduced demand in the housing market [8] - High interest rates benefit savers with yields above 4% on high-yield savings accounts, but potential future rate cuts may compress these returns [8] Future Outlook - The Fed's cautious stance is expected to continue into the latter half of 2025, with core inflation projected to rise to 3.1% and unemployment slightly increasing [9] - The Fed's policy will remain flexible, adapting to economic data and external factors, including geopolitical risks and climate change [9]

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, reaching a high of $3,400 before retreating to around $3,384, demonstrating resilience amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, which has intensified over the past five days [1] - Despite the upward momentum, gold prices faced pressure from a 0.7% increase in the US dollar index and cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] Technical Analysis - On the previous trading day, gold maintained a narrow trading range between $3,366 and $3,403, with a notable rebound after hitting a low of $3,366, closing at $3,387, forming a doji candlestick pattern indicating a fierce market battle between bulls and bears [3] - The four-hour analysis shows gold initially declined to $3,370.4 before rebounding to around $3,400, currently trading near $3,382, with bearish indicators suggesting a preference for short positions [3] - Recommendations for trading include selling near $3,400-$3,403 with a stop loss at $3,408 and a target of $3,380-$3,370, as well as buying near $3,363-$3,366 with a stop loss at $3,358 and a target of $3,380 [5]

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Geopolitical risks are supporting gold prices due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, with the U.S. increasing military presence in the region, raising concerns about further conflict escalation [3] - The U.S. dollar strengthened significantly, with the index rising 0.7% to 98.83, while U.S. retail sales data showed a larger-than-expected decline of 0.9% in May, indicating consumer caution amid trade uncertainties [4] - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations that the policy rate will remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, despite calls from President Trump for a one percentage point cut [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices are in a state of indecision after a significant drop, closing with a doji candlestick, indicating a search for balance between buyers and sellers [6] - The four-hour chart shows gold prices in an ascending wedge pattern, with key support at 3470/3463; a break below this level could signal a potential downward trend [9] - Resistance levels to watch include 3396 and 3420, with a breakthrough at 3396 potentially providing bullish momentum for gold prices [9]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 98.28, while spot silver opened at $36.34/oz and is currently around $36.21/oz, indicating a slight decline [1] - Market focus this week includes retail sales, import and export prices, industrial and manufacturing production, commercial inventories, NAHB housing market index, and API weekly report on US crude oil supply [1] - Last week, the dollar index remained flat at 0.00%, closing at 98.14, while spot silver closed at $36.30/oz, up 0.03% [1] Group 2 - The "Nimitz" aircraft carrier is heading to the Middle East, with a significant number of refueling aircraft moving to Europe, providing options for President Trump [2] - Reports indicate that Iran is seeking talks with the US and Israel to end hostilities, while Netanyahu does not rule out the possibility of assassinating Khamenei [2] - Trump stated that Iran wants to reach an agreement and criticized Iran's refusal to sign an agreement with Israel as foolish [2] Group 3 - Market participants remain cautious regarding Middle Eastern conflicts and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, leading to a slight pullback in gold prices below $3,400 per ounce [3] - Silver prices are fluctuating slightly above the $36.00 per ounce mark following a minor correction last Friday [3] Group 4 - Upcoming events include the announcement of domestic refined oil price adjustments and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [4] - The IEA will release its monthly oil market report, and Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for June will be published [4][5]