Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 87.4% [1] - The probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 12.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays Research indicates uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next month, but Chairman Powell is likely to advocate for a rate cut [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Positions - Barclays believes that Governors Milan, Bowman, and Waller may support a rate cut, while regional Fed Presidents Musalem and Schmidt prefer to keep rates unchanged [1] - Governors Barr and Jefferson, along with Goolsbee and Collins, have shown unclear stances but lean towards maintaining the current rates [1] - Governors Cook and Williams are data-dependent but appear to favor a rate cut [1] Group 2: Voting Dynamics - Barclays notes that before considering Powell's position, there may be six voters inclined to keep rates unchanged and five leaning towards a rate cut [1] - The report emphasizes that Powell will ultimately dominate the decision-making process, as the threshold for publicly opposing his stance is quite high among the governors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar experienced its best single-day performance since the end of September, driven by traders increasing their bets on the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged [1] Group 1 - The dollar's strong performance reflects market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [1] - Increased bets on the Fed's decision to keep rates steady indicate a shift in trader expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index (DXY) has slightly declined, and upcoming employment data releases may increase short-term forex volatility, particularly before the December Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Analysts from Danske Bank, specifically Jesper Fjarstedt, indicate that multiple employment reports prior to the December Federal Reserve meeting could lead to significant market fluctuations [1] - If the Federal Reserve decides to maintain interest rates in December, the US dollar is expected to strengthen by the end of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in December, despite the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the release of official data, recent indicators still show resilience in the labor market [1] Group 1 - Nomura Securities predicts no change in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has affected the publication of official economic data [1] - Recent economic indicators suggest that the labor market remains strong and resilient [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has intensified following the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, which Trump had hoped would be lowered to stimulate the economy [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve announced on July 30 that it would keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting where rates were held steady [3]. - The decision was made despite Trump's repeated calls for significant rate cuts to counteract inflation caused by his own tariff policies [3][4]. Group 2: Trump's Criticism - Trump publicly criticized Powell, labeling him as "too angry, too stupid, and too politicized," and suggested that he is unfit for the role of Fed Chairman [3]. - He referred to Powell as "Mr. Too Late," accusing him of being slow to act and causing the U.S. to lose trillions of dollars [3]. - Trump also condemned the renovation project of the Fed's headquarters, calling it the "most incompetent and corrupt" renovation in history [3]. Group 3: Implications for Economic Policy - The clash between Trump and Powell highlights the power struggle between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve, raising concerns among global investors regarding the direction of U.S. economic policy [4]. - Powell has maintained the Fed's independence, emphasizing that monetary policy adjustments should be based on comprehensive economic and inflation data [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around President Trump's escalating criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, particularly after the Fed decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, ignoring Trump's repeated calls for rate cuts [1][2]. - Trump accused Powell of causing significant economic losses and criticized the Fed's management, specifically referencing a $2.5 billion renovation project of the Fed's headquarters [2]. - The recent inflation data showed that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 2.8% year-over-year, exceeding economists' expectations and indicating persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target [2]. Group 2 - The decision to keep interest rates steady has intensified the tension between the Fed and Trump, with traders reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in September to about 40% [2]. - Powell emphasized the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy, stating that inflation remains a concern and that necessary measures will be taken to control it [1][2]. - Powell indicated that the decision on whether to cut rates in the fall will depend on the accumulation of data leading up to the next meeting [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The HC2510 contract opened lower and moved lower on Thursday. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils stopped falling and rebounded, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.46%, at a relatively high level; the apparent demand rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. Overall, the terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively resilient, but the economic data has weakened, coupled with the slump in furnace materials, causing hot-rolled coils to fall under pressure. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan; the position volume was down 139,278 hands. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 102,930 hands, up 1,876 hands. The HC10 - 1 contract spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 185 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The HC main contract basis was 70 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,460 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,430 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,510 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,380 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,365 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,790.38 million tons, up 5.17 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 49.80 million tons, down 5.62 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 640.00 million tons, up 0.91 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory was 111.02 million tons, up 4.10 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.78%, down 0.14%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output was 322.79 million tons, up 5.30 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 82.46%, up 1.35%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 79.30 million tons, up 1.30 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 268.65 million tons, up 1.49 million tons. The domestic crude steel output was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons; the steel net export volume was 921.00 million tons, down 89.00 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The automobile output was 279.41 million vehicles, up 14.56 million vehicles; the automobile sales volume was 290.45 million vehicles, up 21.81 million vehicles. The air - conditioner output was 2,838.31 million units, down 109.69 million units; the household refrigerator output was 904.74 million units, up 53.74 million units; the household washing machine output was 950.79 million units, up 9.59 million units [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations, which was the fifth consecutive decision to keep the interest rate unchanged. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from July 1st to 27th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.445 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9% compared with the same period in July last year, and a 19% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 12.346 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11% [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that President Trump is scheduled to visit the Federal Reserve headquarters, which is related to the scrutiny of the ongoing renovation project at the institution [1][3] - The visit is expected to last about one hour and involves Trump and other government officials who have requested to tour the renovation site [1] - Trump's aides have been pressing for a site visit, and there was a previous scheduling conflict with a dinner meeting with senators [1] Group 2 - The renovation project at the Federal Reserve is estimated to cost $2.5 billion, funded by the Federal Reserve itself rather than taxpayers [2] - The project has become a focal point for criticism from White House officials towards Fed Chair Powell, with Trump suggesting that cost overruns could be grounds for dismissal [2] - Despite the criticism, Trump later softened his stance, indicating he does not intend to dismiss Powell before the end of his term in May [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that a rate cut in July could provide the Federal Reserve with the flexibility to maintain interest rates unchanged in upcoming meetings [1] Group 1 - A potential rate cut in July may create room for the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady in future meetings [1]