Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates last week is supported by Collins, indicating a consensus on the current monetary policy approach [1] Group 1 - Collins expresses support for the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, reflecting a cautious stance in the current economic environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged during the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting is supported by Harker [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is focused on economic stability and is cautious about making changes to interest rates at this time [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates, which may impact gold prices and their future trends [1] - There is ongoing analysis regarding whether gold prices will continue to rise or reverse from their current trend [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged could influence market dynamics for gold [1] - Analysts are exploring the potential for gold prices to break out of their current stagnation [1] - The discussion includes whether the bullish trend for gold will persist or if a reversal is imminent [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/short trend in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability and a suggestion to wait and see [1] - Apple, Natural Rubber, 20 - rubber, Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The market has a tight inventory expectation for cotton, while the downstream demand for pure cotton yarn is insufficient. The trend of US sugar is downward, and Zheng sugar is weak. Apple demand enters the off - season, and the market focuses on the new - season yield estimate. For natural rubber, downstream demand is average, supply increases, and inventory rises, with an export performance exceeding expectations. Pulp demand is weak with relatively loose supply. Log supply has certain positive factors, but the price rebound power is insufficient [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zheng cotton maintained a narrow - range shock. Domestic cotton trading was average with a firm - to - strong basis. The positive news from Sino - US negotiations boosted prices, but details remained to be seen. Pure cotton yarn trading was light due to weak downstream demand in the off - season. As of the end of May, the commercial cotton inventory was 345.87 million tons, showing a month - on - month decrease of 69.39 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 31.54 million tons. In May, China imported 4 million tons of cotton, the lowest in the past 10 years. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or go long with a light position on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil's central - southern region, the production data in the second half of May was bearish, with an increase in cane crushing volume and sugar production year - on - year, and a continuous rise in the cane - to - sugar ratio. In June, the rainfall in the main production areas was low, which was conducive to cane harvesting. In China, Zheng sugar fluctuated weakly. In May, China imported 35 million tons of sugar, an increase of 33.31 million tons year - on - year. The import volume increased significantly due to rising import profits and the issuance of licenses. Although Guangxi's sugar production increased this year, the inventory decreased year - on - year due to a fast sales pace. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated weakly. The spot price remained stable. The demand entered the off - season. Although the cold - storage apple inventory was low, the increase in seasonal fruit supply and hot weather reduced apple demand, and the price increase slowed down. The sharp decline in litchi prices also affected apple demand. The market's focus shifted to the new - season yield estimate. The cold wave and strong winds during the flowering period in the western production areas might affect the fruit - setting rate and apple quality, but the impact of low - temperature in April on yield was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. The overall flower quantity in the production areas was sufficient, and the yield estimate was relatively bearish. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber - The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged. RU fluctuated, NR rose slightly, and BR rose marginally. The domestic natural rubber spot price generally declined, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable with a slight increase, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price generally increased. The global natural rubber supply entered the growth period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to decline last week. In May, China's tire exports increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The domestic all - steel tire operating rate continued to decline, while the semi - steel tire operating rate rebounded. The all - steel tire inventory continued to decline, and the semi - steel tire inventory increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao rose to 60.7 million tons, the bonded - area inventory decreased, and the general - trade inventory increased. The domestic butadiene rubber social inventory rose slightly to 1.37 million tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory rose to 2.84 million tons. The strategy is to be bullish [6] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was stable at 6050 yuan/ton, Hebei Wuzhen and Buzhen were quoted at 5250 yuan/ton, and the broad - leaf pulp Star was quoted at 4100 yuan/ton. As of June 12, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 218.5 million tons, a 2.8 - million - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.3% month - on - month increase. In May, China imported 301.6 million tons of pulp, and the cumulative import volume from January to May was 1554.7 million tons, a 2.1% year - on - year increase. The domestic port inventory was high year - on - year, pulp demand was weak, and supply was relatively loose. Pulp valuation was low with strong support near the previous low. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [7] Log - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. In June, the log quotation in New Zealand stopped falling and stabilized, and the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increased month - on - month. After the increase in foreign quotations, the spot price bottomed out and rose, supporting the futures price. After entering the off - season, the average daily port delivery volume was about 60,000 cubic meters, showing relatively good demand. As of June 13, the total log inventory in national ports was 3.45 million cubic meters, a 60,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous period. The radiata pine inventory was 2.72 million cubic meters, a 30,000 - cubic - meter decrease. Radiata pine continued to destock, reducing inventory pressure. Although the supply had certain positive factors, the price rebound power was insufficient due to the off - season domestic demand. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [8]

罗素投资：美联储可能在整个夏季维持利率不变 金十数据6月16日讯，罗素投资的分析师Paul Eitelman在一份报告中指出，鉴于关税及地缘政治风险的 影响，美联储可能在整个夏季维持利率不变。这位全球首席投资策略师称："美联储主席鲍威尔可能会 持续警惕关税及中东新兴冲突带来的风险。"他表示，美联储认为关税会对经济构成下行风险，但这种 疲软尚未在数据中显现，同时通胀也保持稳定。Eitelman称："我们预计今年年底前会有一次，或许两 次降息。" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情复盘 - **期货价格**: Last week, the price of the main contract PB2507 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 16,530 yuan/ton and 16,778 yuan/ton. The LME lead futures contract price fluctuated between 1959 - 1994 US dollars/ton [8][12] 3.2现货分析 - As of June 6, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,525 yuan/ton, 16,585 yuan/ton, and 16,525 yuan/ton respectively. On June 6, the 1 lead premium remained at a discount of about - 190 yuan/ton [15] 3.3供需情况 - As of May 30, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 1,100 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of April 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 73,000 tons from the previous month and a 1% year - on - year decrease. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [21] 3.4库存情况 - As of June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined lead inventory was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons from the previous week. As of June 5, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 282,650 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 16.47% [27] 3.5基本面分析 - Multiple senior Fed officials indicated that inflation pressure is still higher than the risk brought by the weak employment market, suggesting that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer time. The US economic and policy uncertainty is high, and tariff hikes bring cost and price increase pressure. The lead discount continues to widen. The lead processing fee is gradually recovering but still at a low level. Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while the import volume of refined lead has increased. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly recovered and is at a low level in recent years, while the LME lead inventory continues to rise and is at a high level in recent years [3][33] 3.6后市展望 - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has warmed up, but the weak reality still dominates. The steel mills have proposed the first round of price cuts for coke. The main contract of coke is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro - level**: National ministries are promoting the regulation of national crude steel production, the central bank has lowered the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate has been cut by 0.25 percentage points since May 8. Overseas, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate, and Trump and the UK Prime Minister reached a limited bilateral trade agreement [7]. - **Supply - demand and profit**: In the short term, the supply elasticity of coke is better than that of coking coal, and the growth space of hot metal output is limited. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 7 yuan/ton, and steel mills have proposed the first - round price cut after the festival [7]. - **Technical aspect**: The weekly K - line of the main coke contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy suggestion**: The market sentiment has warmed up, with mainly rigid - demand restocking of coal. The main coke contract should be treated as fluctuating weakly [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures market**: As of May 16, the position of coke futures contracts was 52,600 lots, a decrease of 631 lots from the previous period. The 1 - 9 contract month - spread was 27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipt volume was 1,570 lots, an increase of 380 lots, and the futures screw - coke ratio was 2.13, an increase of 0.04 [11][18]. - **Spot market**: As of May 15, the coke closing price at Rizhao Port was 1,510 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. As of May 16, the coke basis was 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 [24]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Production**: In March, the output of above - scale industrial raw coal was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. From January to March, it was 1.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. In March 2025, China's coking coal output was 4.16147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.23%. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.23%, an increase of 0.18%, and the daily coke output was 53.63, an increase of 0.13 [29][33]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 7 yuan/ton [33]. - **Downstream situation**: As of May 16, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4477 million tons, a decrease of 0.87 million tons from the previous week. As of May 9, the total coke inventory was 9.5444 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 17.36% [37]. - **Inventory structure**: The port inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory decreased seasonally. On May 16, the inventory of 18 ports was 2.8138 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.638 million tons, a decrease of 72,300 tons, and the available days were 12.01 days, a decrease of 0.09 days [42]. - **Fundamental data**: From January to March 2025, the coke export volume was 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.50%. In April 2025, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, and from January to April, the cumulative export was 37.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.20%. In March 2025, the second - hand housing price index of 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. As of the week of May 11, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.6404 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.27%. The transaction area of first - tier cities was 540,000 square meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.87%, and that of second - tier cities was 752,500 square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07% [47][51][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the state is promoting national crude steel production control, the central bank has cut the reserve - requirement ratio, and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate has been lowered. Overseas, the Fed maintained the interest rate, and a limited bilateral trade agreement was reached. The iron - alloy sector is under pressure, with negative production profits and weak steel demand expectations. The cost of electricity in Ningxia has decreased, and the technical trend of the silicon - iron main contract is bearish. It is recommended to treat the silicon - iron main contract as oscillating [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The state is promoting crude steel production control, the central bank cut the reserve - requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity, and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was cut by 0.25 percentage points. Overseas, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%, and a limited bilateral trade agreement was reached, with the UK buying $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft [6]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The iron - alloy sector is under pressure, with negative production profits. The profit in Inner Mongolia is - 230 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 110 yuan/ton. Steel demand expectations are generally weak. Follow - up tariff conflicts may see new progress after the Sino - US talks [6]. - **Cost Aspect**: The electricity cost in Ningxia decreased by 1 cent, and the semi - coke price remained stable [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon - iron main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Treat the silicon - iron main contract as oscillating due to the decrease in supply and pressure on sector demand [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of May 9, the silicon - iron futures contract open interest was 473,800 lots, a week - on - week increase of 85,100 lots; the monthly spread was - 50, a week - on - week decrease of 126. The number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts was 18,908, an increase of 1,804. The spot price in Ningxia was 5,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 140 yuan/ton [12][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of May 9, the silicon - iron basis was - 82 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24 [21]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Industry**: The silicon - iron operating rate increased, while demand decreased. The weekly demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types was 20,336.3 tons, a 2.00% decrease from last week. The national operating rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises was 32.53%, an increase of 1.79%. The daily output was 14,700 tons, an increase of 550 tons. The inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises decreased by 11.83% to 73,700 tons [27][30]. - **Upstream**: As of May 6, the electricity price in Ningxia was 0.41 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kWh, and in Inner Mongolia, it remained at 0.42 yuan/kWh. As of May 8, the semi - coke price remained at 665 yuan/ton. The production cost in Ningxia was 5,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia, it remained at 5,680 yuan/ton. The production profit in Ningxia was - 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [34][39]. - **Downstream**: As of May 9, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4564 million tons, an increase of 0.0022 million tons from last week and 0.1114 million tons from last year. From January to March 2025, the total silicon - iron export volume was 90,500 tons, a 18.70% decrease from the same period last year. The silicon - iron tender price was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton compared to March [44].