Group 1 - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) shares increased by 3.65%, reaching HKD 23.28, with a trading volume of HKD 312 million [1] - Citigroup's report indicates that Luoyang Molybdenum will announce the acquisition of Brazilian gold assets in December 2025, completing the transaction in January 2026 [1] - Based on Citigroup's forecast of a gold price of USD 4,600 per ounce in 2026, the acquired asset is expected to contribute 7.1 tons of attributable gold production, generating approximately RMB 2.4 billion in net profit, accounting for about 7% of total net profit [1] Group 2 - Sunward Hongyuan predicts that short-term copper production will be significantly disrupted, with tight non-US inventories leading to a bullish outlook for copper prices, supported by solid fundamentals [1] - Long-term growth in electric investment and AI data centers, combined with relatively inelastic copper supply, suggests that the price center for copper is likely to continue rising [1] - Huayuan Securities notes that insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply-side disruptions may shift the copper supply-demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage, with copper smelting profits expected to bottom out amid a "de-involution" backdrop, and prices likely to break upward as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market continues to exhibit volatile "roller coaster" trends in 2026, with gold prices experiencing significant fluctuations driven by geopolitical risks, monetary policy expectations, and speculative capital [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January, the London spot gold price surged from $4,500/oz to a historical peak of $5,598.75/oz, marking a monthly increase of over 24% [1]. - By the end of January, gold experienced a sharp decline, with a single-day drop of 9%, the largest since 1980, reaching a low of $4,440/oz [1]. - As of February 4, gold prices rebounded, surpassing $5,050/oz, indicating a quick recovery in market sentiment [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risks and uncertainties, such as tensions between the U.S. and Iran, have significantly contributed to the rising prices of gold and silver [2]. - In 2025, global gold investment demand reached a record 2,175 tons, with a net increase of 801 tons in gold ETF holdings, particularly in the SPDR Gold Shares, which reached approximately 1,085 tons by January 16 [2]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may initiate a rate-cutting cycle, with a 78% probability of two rate cuts within the year, enhancing gold's appeal as a "non-yielding asset" [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - On February 3, gold prices recorded the largest single-day increase since November 2008, with the relative strength index (RSI) rebounding above 50, indicating a return to rational market sentiment [3]. - Major investment banks, including JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank, have raised their gold price targets, with Deutsche Bank reaffirming a target of $6,000/oz [3]. - JPMorgan Private Bank has set a target of $6,150/oz by the end of 2026, driven by emerging market central banks increasing their gold reserves [3]. Group 4: Valuation Perspective - Current gold prices remain within a reasonable range, with a structural change in valuation frameworks as gold's "monetary attributes" gain importance [4]. - UBS suggests that if geopolitical risks escalate sharply, gold prices could reach $7,200/oz within the year, while a stable Fed policy could see a downward target of $4,600/oz [4]. - The total value of existing gold is approximately $38.2 trillion, comparable to the total U.S. Treasury debt of $38.5 trillion, indicating gold's enhanced status in the global monetary system [4]. Group 5: Risks and Market Dynamics - Short-term volatility risks are pronounced, with profit-taking and quantitative selling pressures creating a feedback loop of selling [5]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations are fluctuating, with potential impacts on gold prices as market anticipations shift [6]. - A temporary easing of geopolitical risks, such as renewed nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, may lead to a shift in market sentiment away from gold towards equities [6]. Group 6: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing "de-dollarization" process and the structural demand for gold from global central banks, along with the anticipated Fed rate cuts, continue to support the long-term outlook for gold [7].

Group 1 - The long-term trend for gold remains solid, with significant inflows into gold ETFs, specifically the Cathay Gold ETF (518800), which saw a net inflow of 2.3 billion yuan over four consecutive days, indicating strong demand for gold investments [1] - In the U.S. economic landscape, the ISM manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 52.6, indicating a return to the expansion zone, surpassing expectations of 48.5 and the previous value of 47.9 [1] - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness, with the ADP employment change for January at 22,000, lower than the previous figure of 41,000 and the expected 48,000 [1] Group 2 - The ongoing increase in gold reserves by the People's Bank of China marks the 15th consecutive month of accumulation, with reserves reported at 7.419 million ounces (approximately 2,307.567 tons) as of the end of January, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 40,000 ounces (about 1.24 tons) [1] - The backdrop of monetary expansion and fiscal deficit monetization challenges the U.S. dollar credit system, while global geopolitical instability drives the diversification of asset reserves, enhancing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The combination of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, increasing overseas uncertainties, and a global trend towards de-dollarization supports the outlook for gold prices, positioning gold as a potential new pricing anchor [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations with a recent upward trend, supported by geopolitical tensions and ongoing de-dollarization efforts, while the U.S. economic indicators present mixed signals [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of February 6, London spot gold closed at $4,966.61 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $86.58 per ounce since January 30, marking a rise of 1.77% [1] - The highest gold price reached $5,091.95 per ounce, while the lowest was $4,402.06 per ounce during the week [1] - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for the fifteenth consecutive month, which adds confidence to the precious metals market [1][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 52.6, indicating expansion and surpassing expectations [2] - The U.S. labor market showed signs of deterioration, with ADP employment numbers at 22,000, below previous and expected figures [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll report is delayed until February 11, and the CPI report until February 13, due to the government shutdown [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Geopolitical Factors - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson indicated that the current interest rate stance is appropriate for the economy, with expectations of inflation trends improving later in the year [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, and trade agreements have been reached with India and Argentina [3] Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold - The long-term trend for gold remains strong, driven by monetary expansion and fiscal deficits, challenging the dollar's credit system [5] - The ongoing global de-dollarization trend is expected to enhance gold's role as a pricing anchor, providing upward momentum for precious metals [5] - The combination of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, increasing geopolitical uncertainties, and global de-dollarization trends supports gold prices in the medium to long term [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and ongoing de-dollarization, which are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of February 6, London spot gold closed at $4,966.61 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $86.58 per ounce since January 30, representing a 1.77% rise [1]. - The highest and lowest prices for gold last week were $5,091.95 and $4,402.06 per ounce, respectively [1]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold and silver on February 5, indicating a move to mitigate risks through deleveraging [1]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 52.6, exceeding expectations, while the services PMI rose to 53.8, marking a new high for 2024 [2]. - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness, with ADP employment numbers at 22,000, below previous figures and expectations [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the fifteenth consecutive month, reaching 7,419 million ounces (approximately 2307.567 tons) as of the end of January [3]. - This increase in gold reserves is seen as a confidence booster for the precious metals market [1][3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The long-term trend for gold remains strong, supported by factors such as monetary expansion, fiscal deficit monetization, and increasing demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical instability [5]. - The ongoing de-dollarization trend is expected to position gold as a new pricing anchor, enhancing its upward momentum [5]. - The combination of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, increasing global uncertainties, and de-dollarization trends provides medium to long-term support for gold prices [5].

Group 1 - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals collectively strengthened on February 9, with the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) rising by 2.09%, and stocks like Shenghe Resources increasing by 9.49% [1] - Silver and rare earth stocks also saw significant gains, with silver rising by 5.94%, and companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth following suit [1] - The price consumption is relatively flat as the Spring Festival approaches, and the increase in non-ferrous metals is limited compared to precious metals, indicating a potential return to fundamentals after the price surge [1] Group 2 - According to CITIC Securities, copper is testing the key support level of 100,000 yuan/ton, with expectations for downstream inventory replenishment likely to occur after the Spring Festival [1] - Global copper inventory has risen to 1.11 million tons, with 589,000 tons locked in the COMEX market, while aluminum prices are supported at 23,500 yuan/ton despite current inventory accumulation [1] - The prices of non-ferrous metals are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle and global copper and aluminum inventories remaining relatively low, suggesting improved demand driven by economic recovery and the new energy sector [1] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Theme Index (000811) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, collectively accounting for 51.85% of the index [2] - The weightings of the top stocks are as follows: Zijin Mining at 15.30%, Luoyang Molybdenum at 7.92%, and Northern Rare Earth at 5.30% [3] - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) has several off-market connections, including the Huaxia Non-Ferrous Metal ETF Connect A (016707) and C (016708) [3]

【潮起潮落皆为势，低吸高抛方为智】 势者，顺之则昌，逆之则亡；金市沉浮，唯择势者胜。 周四晚间黄金上演冲高回落大跳水的行情，触及4801后冲高4907开始跳水，隔夜来到4655。美盘前公开给出回落4800附近直接多，行情回落两次触及反弹都 有不错的利润。隔夜实战4690精准抄底多，目前已经来到了4760，一大早迎来开门红，早起的鸟儿有虫吃。 回落4600附近多，深度回撤4400附近还是多 反弹4930-50区域不破轻仓试空 意外关注实时走势分析 昨日晚间这波暴跌主要是因为纳斯达克暴跌引发的市场流动性危机，叠加美联储鹰派预期、获利了结等等因素。今日晚间有非农数据，叠加周五行情易出单 边、变数较多，操作上更需谨慎对待。 日内还是回落做多为主，之前有说过这两日会出一个低点倒车接人，走势基本上符合预期。一直提醒大家不回调坚决不做多，谨慎是有原因的。下方支撑关 注4600附近，接近不破直接多，站稳这里黄金牛市趋势延续，上方目标剑指4800--4900-5000。下方跌破4400，空头趋势才会进一步延续。上方阻力短期关注 4930-50区域，不破轻仓试空。昨日的回撤大概率不会快速消化，黄金上涨之路或坎坷，切勿盲目追涨杀跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant fluctuations in gold prices have led to a sharp decline in gold ETFs, with many products experiencing drops exceeding 3% as of February 5 [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 30, COMEX gold futures fell sharply by 8.35%, followed by a further decline of 1.35% on February 2, before rebounding with a cumulative increase of over 6% in the subsequent two days [3]. - As of February 5, gold ETFs were among the worst performers in the ETF market, with several products, including the Yongying and Huaxia gold ETFs, seeing declines of over 5% [3][4]. Group 2: Causes of Fluctuation - The primary reason for the recent drop in gold prices is attributed to market concerns regarding the hawkish stance of the new Federal Reserve chair, leading to a rapid outflow of previously invested funds [4]. - The market had previously experienced a significant surge in gold prices, resulting in a concentrated long position among investors, which created a situation of "overbought" conditions as indicated by technical indicators [4]. - The increase in margin requirements for gold futures by CME has further pressured short-term leveraged funds, making the market highly sensitive to negative news, which triggered large-scale long position liquidations [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Despite the volatility, some professional institutions are focusing on the long-term value of gold and are willing to enter the market during downturns, disregarding short-term fluctuations [7]. - For instance, the "Jiaoyin Multi-Asset Preferred" fund increased its holdings in gold ETFs on February 3, indicating a strategy to capitalize on relatively certain investment opportunities [7]. - Industry experts suggest that different types of investors should adopt differentiated strategies in response to the short-term volatility and the long-term positive outlook for gold [7][8].

沪银主力走势继续震荡，今日白银期货开盘报22000元/千克，最高触及23580元/千克，最低触及21919 元/千克，截止收盘报23511元/千克，上涨11.22%。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 54964 | -3541 | | | 外运华东虹桥 | 30058 | -4118 | | | 中工美供应链 | 307145 | -18753 | | | 合计 | 392167 | -26412 | | 广东 | 深圳威豹 | 31074 | 0 | | 总计 | | 423241 | -26412 | 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货2月4日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计423241千克，今日仓单较上一日 下跌26412千克。 受政府部分停摆影响，原定于周五发布的非农报告被推迟。不过，特朗普总统周二签署了结束停摆的法 案，因此预计延迟时间不会太长。 【基本面消息】 美元在面临美国经济数据发布前走低，这些数据可能为美联储降息周期的节奏提供线索。ADP私人部门 就业数据将于今晚公布，随后将公布ISM服务业调查。丹麦银行分析师 ...

2月4日盘中，沪金期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至1143.36元。截止发稿，沪金主力合约 报1141.70元，涨幅7.29%。 短期来看，特朗普任命以鹰派著名的沃什为下任美联储主席，多家交易所上调黄金保证金，成为金价快 速上涨后大幅下调的导火索，目前来看恐慌盘现企稳迹象，市场逐步回归理性，近期地缘政治因素和经 济数据的不确定性引发避险资金逢低买入，预计金价进入盘整阶段。中长期看，地缘政治风险、美元祛 魅央行购金和美联储降息周期的支撑因素未发生改变。 铜冠金源期货：金银出现短期反弹 近期金银价格的大幅调整，更多是对市场情绪狂热和多头拥挤行情的修正。在经过了连续三个交易日的 暴跌之后，杠杆资金出清市场抛售压力有所缓解，金银出现短期反弹，但目前言调整结束还为时尚早。 目前市场仍处于高波动率状态，预计在波动率降温之前，贵金属价格还将继续调整。 中金财富期货：贵金属以市场趋势为主 沪金期货主力涨超7%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 贵金属市场虽然遭遇突然调整，但是强度未变，尤其是黄金的买盘非常踊跃。黄金作为此轮全球资产泡 沫的龙头，聚焦了天量的资金。对于贵金属，买盘力量和市场预期是主要驱动，贵金属走 ...