Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold and silver prices, with spot gold surpassing $3,800 per ounce, marking a new historical high, and an increase of over 1% in a single day [1] - Year-to-date, spot gold has accumulated an increase of nearly 45%, indicating strong market performance [1] - Spot silver also experienced a daily increase of 2.26%, reaching $47.09 per ounce, reflecting a positive trend in precious metals [1] Group 2 - The analysis attributes the strong performance of gold futures to several factors, including expectations of further monetary easing following the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [1] - Increased geopolitical risks have heightened demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the rise in gold prices [1] - The growth in global gold ETF holdings, along with robust domestic consumption demand, has created a synergistic effect supporting the upward trend in gold prices [1]

Global Research China Equity Strategy Overview of A-share sector and style performance during Fed's rate cut cycles Fed resumes rate cut cycle The Fed announced a 25bp rate cut on 17 September, lowering the Fed fund rate target to 4.00-4.25%. This resumes the rate cut cycle after a nine-month pause since 19 December 2024. The UBS US macro team expects further 25bp/50bp cuts in October/ December as the unemployment data is likely to weaken over October-November. A-share sector and style performance during Fe ...

2025.09.29-09.30 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 展望四季度，全球经济预期改善、美联储降息周期开启及国内政策托底，供 应方面，国内外增量有限，呈现刚性约束，新能源板块保持强劲而地产板块 持续低迷，整体需求韧性依旧，预计2025年四季度铝价将呈现偏强震荡格局。 2 20000以下可以考虑持中期多单。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 未来一周沪铝2 5 1 1支撑约2 0 5 0 0 ,阻力约2 0 9 0 0 ,短线交易。 大区间震荡 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 长假期临近，避险观望为宜。 本周策略建议 适量配置过节库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 【总体观点】 | | 2025年9月第4周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 四季度几内亚铝土矿扰动预计可控，但由于其资源垄断性及铝土矿在当地财政的占比较高，预计价格在 | | | 70-75美元/吨波动。国内矿山治理政策，对国内矿石将形成长期约束，四季度供应预计难有明显改善。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截止9月26日，国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨，运行产能约9670万吨，产能利用率约85.95%，上周 | | ...

有色50ETF（159652）标的指数成分股涨跌不一，铜板块继续领涨，江西铜业涨超4%，紫金矿业、洛阳钼业等微涨，赣锋锂业、中国铝业、中国 黄金等回调。 数据显示，有色50ETF（159652）标的指数全面涵盖金、铜、稀土等金属板块，根据中信三级行业分布，其"含铜量"达30%，"金铜含量"领先全市 场同类指数！ 截至10:05，成分股仅做展示使用，不构成投资建议 9月26日，临近长假，A股小幅震荡回调，有色板块早盘一度加速冲高，随后涨幅有所收窄。有色50ETF（159652）一度涨超2%，资金跑步进场， 截至10：15，有色50ETF（159652）实时获净申购1500万份，按盘中成交均价估算，实时净申购额已超2000万元！ | | 有色50ETF 159652 | ਐ | | --- | --- | --- | | | | OH | | रोस | 56.04% 120日 | 61.53% | | 5日 | 4.15% 250日 | 75.59% | | 20日 | 5.13% 52周高 | 1.35 | | 60日 | 33.23% 52周低 | 0.75 | | 实时申购赎回信息 | 申购 | 使口 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent copper mine incident has reignited the rally in industrial metals stocks in the A-share market, following a previous surge in cobalt-related stocks due to policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 25, the industrial metals sector in the A-share market rose by 1.31%, with net inflows of nearly 1.6 billion yuan [1]. - The industrial metals sector has seen an overall increase of over 50% since the low point in April, with nearly 20 stocks doubling in market value [9][20]. - Major players in the copper sector, such as Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, experienced stock price increases exceeding 5% [3][11]. Group 2: Key Events and Drivers - The Grasberg copper mine incident in Indonesia, which resulted in production halts and a projected 35% drop in output by 2026, has significantly impacted copper prices, pushing them to a new high of 82,710 yuan per ton [8]. - The recent policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo regarding cobalt exports, including an extension of the export suspension until October 2025, have raised concerns about future supply and contributed to price increases in the cobalt market [12][13]. Group 3: Company Insights - Zijin Mining's stock has surged by 80% this year, with copper sales contributing significantly to its revenue, accounting for 27.8% of sales and 38.5% of gross profit [7]. - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price has increased by 145% since April, driven by rising prices of its main products, with a reported revenue of 94.77 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, despite a year-on-year decline [11][20]. - The copper production from Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to reach 650,000 tons in 2024, marking a 65% increase year-on-year [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the industrial metals sector will continue to benefit from macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic supply-side reforms [14][15]. - The overall sentiment in the industrial metals market remains positive, with expectations of sustained demand and price increases due to global economic recovery and strategic metal pricing dynamics [17][20].

研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜窄幅震荡美联储主席鲍威尔表示，需要在未来的利率决策中平衡通胀担忧与 趋弱的就业市场，美元指数上涨，施压铜价，但日内 A 股大幅上涨，令资金风偏 上升。铜现货价涨 35 至 80045，现货升水持平 55，临近假期下游备货情绪较弱， 升水承压，盘面结构也持续在平水附近，短期高铜价抑制下游节前备货情绪，不 过美联储降息周期下弱美元难改，以及中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative impact of US tariff policies is gradually emerging, international trade activities are slowing down, and the global economy will still face downward pressure. The Fed's monetary policy has returned to the interest rate cut cycle, but the reduction of the balance sheet continues, which may lead to a shortage of US dollar liquidity and financial de - leveraging. The stock markets of major developed countries such as Europe and the United States are at historical highs, and asset prices are at risk of being re - evaluated. - China's economic recovery foundation is not solid, with fixed - asset investment growth continuing to decline and consumption growth slowing marginally. Only industrial production remains at a high level. Macroeconomic policies need to strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, and the proactive fiscal policy is being accelerated, while the monetary policy will remain moderately loose. - In the fourth quarter, the valuation of stock indices will be supported by risk appetite at the denominator end, but stock indices should still be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset before corporate profits improve significantly. The restart of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle will narrow the Sino - US interest rate spread, giving more room for China's monetary policy, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline. The uncertainty of US tariff policies is gradually fading, and the international geopolitical situation is expected to ease. Gold is at risk of a deep adjustment [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomic Outlook - **Market Performance in Q3 2025**: Global stock markets rose in resonance, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq reaching new highs. Commodities such as coal, steel, and non - ferrous metals rebounded. Gold broke through upwards after 4 months of consolidation, with London spot gold approaching $3,800 per ounce, up more than 40% for the year [4]. - **Outlook for Q4**: The negative impact of US tariff policies will further appear, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice in Q4, and the global economy will face downward pressure. If the US job market weakens further, the Fed may shift from "preventive" to "relief" interest rate cuts. Global stock markets may face asset value re - evaluation risks [5]. - **US Situation**: Employment pressure is increasing, and the Fed's monetary policy has returned to the interest rate cut cycle. In August, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, the consumer confidence index dropped to 58.2, new non - farm employment was 22,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year [7][9]. - **European Situation**: The European Central Bank suspended interest rate cuts in September, and the benchmark interest rate is approaching the neutral level. The eurozone economy has warmed up, with the manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion range, low unemployment, and stable inflation [11][14]. - **Japanese Situation**: The Japanese economy maintains a moderate recovery, and the central bank maintains a slow interest rate hike rhythm. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.9, the consumer confidence index reached a new high, the unemployment rate dropped to 2.3%, and inflation remained above 2% [16][19]. Domestic Economic Situation Analysis - **Overall Situation in Q3 2025**: Affected by US tariff policies, China's economic downward pressure has emerged again, with fixed - asset investment declining, consumption growth slowing, and only industrial production remaining high. The foundation of economic recovery is not solid, and demand is insufficient [21]. - **Negative Impact of US Tariff Policies**: In August, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4, still in the contraction range. From January to August, fixed - asset investment growth slowed, industrial production slowed slightly but remained high, consumption growth slowed, CPI turned negative, PPI decline narrowed, and foreign trade growth slowed [23][25]. - **Fiscal and Monetary Policies**: The proactive fiscal policy is being accelerated, with super - long - term special treasury bonds and local special bonds mostly issued. The monetary policy will remain loose, and there is more room for operation with the Fed's interest rate cuts. Deposit rates are expected to be cut, and there may be a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut in Q4 [31][33]. Asset Allocation - **Stock Indices**: Corporate profits are still declining, and the inventory cycle is in the active de - stocking stage. There is still room for the risk - free rate to decline, and there are many positive factors affecting risk appetite. In Q4, stock indices are likely to oscillate widely, and the key is whether corporate profits can improve significantly [38][39]. - **Bonds**: The negative impact of US tariff policies is emerging, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice. The Sino - US interest rate spread will narrow, and China's monetary policy has more room. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds may decline [40]. - **Gold**: In the medium - to - long - term, gold prices depend on the US dollar and real interest rates. In Q4, as trade policy uncertainty decreases and geopolitical tensions ease, gold may face a deep adjustment due to factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and high real interest rates [41][42].

Group 1 - Gold prices continue to reach historical highs, with London gold spot prices breaking through $3700, $3720, and $3740 per ounce, peaking at $3748.88 on September 22 [2] - As of September 23, London gold spot prices reached a maximum of $3759.16 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures hit $3793.7 per ounce, and Shanghai Gold Exchange Au99.99 reached 850 yuan per gram [2] - Since the beginning of 2025, international gold prices have increased by nearly 43%, while domestic gold prices have risen by approximately 38% [3] Group 2 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's hedging research team indicates that the ongoing weakness in the U.S. labor market and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts provide upward momentum for gold prices, supported by geopolitical conflicts and long-term dollar credit concerns [5] - Analysts suggest that the current rise in gold prices has outpaced fundamental factors, leading to increased short-term volatility, but the long-term trend remains below previous gold price upcycles [5] - As of September 22, the total scale of domestic commodity gold ETFs reached 155.15 billion yuan, a 120% increase from the end of last year, indicating a recovery in net inflows due to rising gold prices [5] Group 3 - On September 22, all 11 gold concept stocks in the A-share market saw gains, with notable increases in Zhongjin Gold and Xiaocheng Technology exceeding 9% [6] - The significant profit growth in the semi-annual reports of gold mining companies is attributed to rising gold prices and increased production, leading to a potential valuation recovery for gold stocks [6] - Silver prices also reached a near 14-year high on September 22, with expectations of further increases as silver benefits from both financial attributes and industrial demand [6]

当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%。美联储预测中值显示， 2025年将再降息50个基点。这意味着美元汇率可能进入新一轮波动期，对在美华人的跨境资金流动产生 直接影响。 美联储降息直接触发美元指数走弱，离岸人民币对美元汇率在9月18日短线拉升至7.08，创十个月新 高。这一变化对"赚美元、汇人民币"的在美华人形成显著影响：以每月汇款1万美元为例，若汇率从 7.20降至7.08，收款人将少得1200元人民币。更值得关注的是，美联储暗示年底可能再降息50个基点， 持续的美元贬值预期将进一步放大汇率波动风险。 与此同时，传统银行的跨境汇款服务在降息周期下面临"双重挤压"。一方面，中美利差收窄导致银行外 汇业务利润空间压缩，部分机构通过提高隐性汇率加点转嫁成本；另一方面，监管合规成本持续上升， 部分汇款需提交亲属关系证明、资金用途说明等文件，流程复杂度增加30%以上。这种"汇率缩水+成本 上升"的双重压力，使得传统汇款渠道的性价比进一步下降。 二、降息周期下的跨境汇款新变局 在当前经济环境下，传统跨境汇款服务的固有缺陷被进一步放大，难以适应在美华人的实际需求： 1. 汇率 ...

Well, let's stick with the Fed rate cuts and what it means for your portfolio. Joining us here at Post 9, City Research head of global strategy, Rob row. Rob, thanks for being here uh with us here.Great to see you, Courtney. Yeah, obviously the market just keeps hitting record after record. It seems almost unbelievable, but it keeps happening even with all of these macro crosscurrens.But your expectations are that we're going to hit around uh what 6,600 for year end by year end. So, a little lower than we a ...