Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the transmission of tariffs to inflation in the U.S. is relatively mild, which reduces the constraints on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - The report maintains the prediction of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in September and two cuts within the year [1] - Research by Cavallo et al. (2025) shows that after the announcement of tariffs, the maximum increase in commodity prices occurs within 10-15 weeks, indicating a rapid transmission of tariffs [1] Group 2 - Despite the rapid transmission of tariffs, companies are only passing on 50-60% of the tariff pressure to consumers due to weak perceived demand, which prevents a larger increase in inflation [1] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates that the rise in tariffs in August may continue to moderately push up core inflation, but weak corporate demand and a weakening job market will limit the extent of inflation increases [1] - The report highlights that demand slowdown and accelerated deportation of illegal immigrants indicate that the job market will continue to face pressure in the third quarter [1]

Market Performance - Global stock markets mostly rose last week, with Vietnam's VN30 index leading gains[3] - The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 increased by 1.4%, 3.9%, and 2.4% respectively[3] - European indices also saw gains, with Germany's DAX up 3.2% and France's CAC40 up 2.6%[3] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Tech index rose by 1.2%, while India's SENSEX30 fell by 0.9%[3] Economic Indicators - The upcoming CPI data release is crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with expectations of potential rate cuts later this year[3] - The Fed's internal divisions are evident, with some members advocating for three rate cuts this year[3] Geopolitical Risks - The upcoming US-Russia meeting on August 15 may impact global trade stability, especially if negotiations fail[3] - Significant geopolitical tensions could lead to increased sanctions against Russia, further destabilizing global markets[3] Investment Strategy - Market volatility is expected due to upcoming economic data and geopolitical events, suggesting a focus on long-term positions[3] - The anticipated Fed rate cuts (2-3 times this year) make interest rate-sensitive investments attractive, particularly in US Treasuries[3] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds in overseas markets, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions[3][42]

Market Performance - In July, global stock markets showed a mixed performance, with the US indices collectively rising, led by the Nasdaq, while the Dow remained flat[3] - The UK FTSE 100 outperformed the Nasdaq, and the VN30 index in Vietnam led the gains in the Asia-Pacific region[3] Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payrolls for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, with prior months' figures revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs[3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has surged to over 80%, with a 50% chance of another cut in October[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with two dissenting votes in the recent FOMC meeting and a key member announcing an early resignation[3] - The likelihood of a dovish shift from the Fed has increased, with expectations of a 50-75 basis point rate cut in the remaining months of the year[3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on interest rate cut trades and opportunities in the US stock market following potential corrections[3] - Short-term bonds are favorable, but long-term bonds may offer greater advantages due to duration and declining inflation[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions[3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts is influenced by a complex interplay between monetary policy and political positions, rather than being a straightforward economic issue [1][14]. - The recent FOMC meeting saw two dissenting votes for the first time in 32 years, reflecting a shift in the political landscape rather than a significant change in monetary policy dynamics [4][5]. - The removal of the phrase "uncertainty further decreases" from Powell's statements indicates ongoing concerns about the unpredictability of Trump's policies, which adds to the complexity of the economic environment [6][12]. Group 2 - The significant fluctuations in GDP growth rates are primarily driven by Trump's tariff policies, which have led to erratic import behaviors and inventory investments, masking the underlying weakening of domestic economic momentum [7][9]. - The private domestic final purchases (PDFP) growth rate has been revised downwards, indicating a decline in the internal economic strength of the U.S., which is heavily reliant on consumer spending [9][12]. - Powell's hawkish stance is characterized by a focus on inflation risks over employment concerns, suggesting a tighter monetary policy approach to combat inflation, despite the complexities introduced by external factors like tariffs [12][14]. Group 3 - The decision to cut interest rates in September appears to be data-driven, with the potential for political pressures from Trump regarding the Federal Reserve's actions, especially concerning debt servicing costs [17][14]. - The upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank meeting is anticipated to be a critical moment for assessing Powell's commitment to a hawkish monetary policy stance amidst evolving economic conditions [14][17].

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting[1] - Two Fed governors voted against the decision to keep rates unchanged, marking the first such occurrence since 1993[1] - The Fed's assessment of economic growth was downgraded from "expand at a solid pace" to "moderated," indicating concerns over economic slowdown[1] Interest Rate Expectations - Following the meeting, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to 45%, down from previous expectations[1] - Cumulative rate cut expectations for the year decreased by 7 basis points to 37 basis points[1] - The yields on 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 6 basis points and 2 basis points, reaching 3.94% and 4.37% respectively[1] Economic Indicators - Powell emphasized the robustness of the job market but acknowledged existing downside risks[3] - The second quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, but the overall growth rate for the first half of the year was slower compared to the same period last year[3] - Powell noted that tariffs are contributing to inflation, with companies likely to pass on costs to consumers in the future[3] Future Outlook - The decision on a potential rate cut in September will depend on economic data from July and August, particularly employment figures[4] - There is a possibility of two rate cuts between September and December if economic conditions weaken[4] - Risks include unexpected inflation from tariffs and a faster-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. job market[4]

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident [3][7][38] - The June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations [3][38] - The market reacted to the data with a temporary decline in the 10Y Treasury yield and the US dollar index, which later recovered, indicating a focus on future inflation expectations [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound include rising oil prices, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services [4][39] - The energy CPI for June increased by 0.9% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of -1.0%, reflecting global oil price increases [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, driven by clothing, toys, and audio-visual equipment, indicating the impact of tariffs [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, while core non-rent service inflation rebounded, particularly in medical, transportation, and entertainment services [4][39] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects [5][28][40] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite potential inflation increases [5][34][40] - The combination of moderate inflation increases and weakening employment may influence the Fed's decision-making [34][40]

Inflation Data Summary - The core CPI in the US for June increased by 0.23% month-on-month, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 0.3%[1] - Year-on-year, the core CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, meeting expectations[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month rose from 0.08% in May to 0.29% in June, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%, slightly above the expected 2.6%[1] Tariff Impact - The report indicates that tariff impacts are beginning to show, particularly in core goods and services, despite some weakness in used and new car prices[2] - 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms plan to pass tariff costs onto consumers within three months, contradicting claims that tariffs do not affect domestic prices[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The analysis maintains the expectation of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December due to potential labor market slowdowns[2] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in September has decreased to 54%[1] Specific Item Analysis - Core goods inflation rebounded to 0.20% month-on-month from -0.04% in May, driven by significant increases in clothing, furniture, and entertainment goods[5] - Energy prices saw a notable recovery, with energy goods rising by 3.5 percentage points to 1.04% month-on-month, contributing to a 0.1 percentage point increase in overall CPI[5] Risks and Considerations - Risks include the possibility that tariff impacts on domestic prices may be less than expected and the potential for significant tightening of financial conditions in the US[3]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains the judgment that the Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts in September and December, considering the potential impact of tariffs on core goods inflation and a possible slowdown in the labor market [1] Inflation and Tariffs - The June CPI data indicates a rebound in inflation for goods with high import dependence, contradicting claims that tariffs do not translate into consumer prices [1] - The weighted average import tariff rate in the U.S. was only 8.7% in May, and some companies have delayed price transmission by consuming inventory [1] - It is anticipated that the impact of tariffs on inflation will become more evident, potentially pushing U.S. inflation higher in the short term [1] Business Sentiment - A survey by the New York Fed shows that 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms plan to pass on tariff costs to consumers within three months [1] - Jerome Powell stated during the June FOMC press conference that the Fed needs to observe the impact of tariffs over the summer, suggesting that the rise in inflation may already be within the Fed's expectations [1]

Summary of the Copper Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The copper industry is currently experiencing price fluctuations between $8,700 and $10,000 due to weak supply and demand constraints, with 90% of total costs distributed around $8,000, and market sentiment bottoming at $8,700 [1][2][4] - Global manufacturing has been at a low since mid-2022, with expectations for recovery driven by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][2] Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper mine growth expectations for 2025 have decreased from 700,000 tons to over 300,000 tons, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance [1][4][5] - Supply-side challenges include aging mines and political/economic constraints, leading to actual production falling short of expectations [1][5] - Global copper inventories have been declining since Q2, currently at the second-lowest level in five years, influenced by the U.S. 232 security investigation [1][5][6] Impact of U.S. 232 Security Investigation - The U.S. 232 investigation has raised expectations for tariffs on imported copper, increasing U.S. product premiums by approximately 14% [1][7] - U.S. imports of copper surged by 200% year-on-year in the first four months, leading to a depletion of non-U.S. inventories and a strengthening of LME prices [1][7] Investment Strategy - The copper industry is viewed as having good mid-term allocation value, with low current valuations and potential for significant returns as interest rates decline and manufacturing cycles recover [2][3] - Key factors influencing copper price volatility in the short term include U.S. economic performance, Federal Reserve rate cut timing, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and Chinese stimulus policies [3][8] Company-Specific Insights - Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum's PE valuations are at their lowest in three years, with potential for recovery as risk appetite increases [3][10] - Zijin Mining is expected to increase production by over 40% in the coming years, with potential returns exceeding 50% post-Fed rate cuts [3][12] - Luoyang Molybdenum is projected to improve operational performance significantly, with plans to reduce costs by 5% while other companies face rising costs [13] Long-Term Outlook - The copper price is expected to trend upwards in the long term due to stable demand driven by increased electricity consumption and constrained supply [16][17] - Factors such as copper's steep cost curve and resource distribution contribute to its long-term price resilience [17][18] Conclusion - The copper industry presents a compelling investment opportunity, with significant potential for growth driven by supply constraints and recovering demand, particularly in the context of macroeconomic developments and company-specific performance metrics [10][12][13]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250706 关于 25 年下半年转债策略的三点思考 2025 年 07 月 06 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《日本居民财富配置 30 年变迁—低 利率时代系列（六）》 2025-07-03 《利柏转债：工业模块化制造龙头》 2025-07-03 [Table_Summary] ◼ 上周（0630－0704）海外避险情绪整体回落，美债跌美股涨，其中科技 股由于盈利预期改善领涨，外围以伊冲突止战、美越贸易协议达成，越 南全方面对美国开放市场，存在一定示范效应，市场信心得到提振；同 时 6 月非农数据虽然不及预期，但市场增加年内联储降息押注， fedwatch 显示目前 7 月降息概率升至 27.4%，9 月降息概率高达 78%。 美债收益率整体仍在寻找趋势，继上上周波段下探后，上周受避险情绪 整体回落影响，转而上行，我们仍认为美债仍存在较强配置吸引力，期 限上 ...