Core Points - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a large tax and spending bill with a narrow margin, which has sparked controversy due to significant cuts to social security funding and concerns over increasing federal deficits [1][2][3] - The bill aims to extend tax cuts from Trump's first term, provide new tax deductions, increase defense spending, and allocate more funds for immigration enforcement while cutting green energy incentives and raising eligibility thresholds for medical assistance and food aid [1][2] Group 1 - The bill includes a reduction of nearly $800 billion in medical assistance funding, which is expected to have a significant political risk as it affects a large portion of the population relying on this program for health insurance [2][3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the bill becomes law, the lowest 10% of households will see a decrease in resources, while the highest 10% will benefit [2] - The bill is projected to increase federal debt by approximately $3 trillion compared to a baseline scenario where Trump's tax cuts would not be extended [3] Group 2 - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, and Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising debt and interest expenses [3] - The bond market has shown volatility, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising to 5.15%, reflecting investor concerns over the federal government's debt issues [4] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed the need for the government to adhere to fiscal discipline, warning that the current deficit levels are unsustainable [4]

新华财经北京5月23日电美国国会众议院周四（5月22日）通过大规模减税法案，对美国联邦债务规模将 大幅提高的担忧情绪令投资者继续抛售美债，10年期美债收益率盘中升至4.62%，续创2月以来新高。 近几日飙升的20年期和30年期美债收益率盘中也分别触及5.16%的2023年10月以来新高，和5.15%的 2007年6月以来新高。 美国国会众议院22日以微弱优势通过一项大规模税收与支出法案。美国联邦预算问责委员会对这项法案 深表担忧，警告说，众议院的预算框架是"对财政责任的公然蔑视"，该法案不仅将令国债激增3万亿美 元以上，还埋下大规模减税与支出政策到期形成的"财政悬崖"隐患，即如果延续这些政策，可能将再度 耗费数万亿美元。最新数据显示，美国国债规模已攀升至36.2万亿美元。 自穆迪上周末下调美国主权信用评级以来，对美国预算赤字的担忧持续加重，债券投资者认为在关税将 加剧通胀的背景下，减税法案会给已经下跌的债券带来额外压力。周三的20年期长债发行结果惨淡，则 令本就脆弱的美债投资者信心再遭重创。 Argent资本管理公司投资组合经理 Jed Ellerbroek在接受采访时表示，"从短期来看，这项税收法案对经 济 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to deteriorating fiscal conditions, while the White House continues to push for a large tax cut that may increase federal debt by trillions of dollars [1] Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with approximately one-quarter of this debt maturing within the current year, heightening the risk of federal debt [1] - Analysts indicate that the U.S. is trapped in a structural dilemma of dollar credit and debt crisis, with long-term fiscal deficits leading to an imbalance in the supply and demand of government bonds [1] - The crisis is characterized by a persistent state where the supply of U.S. Treasury bonds exceeds demand, which is likely to result in rising bond yields [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. government and financial sector have been depleting dollar credit over the years, with the extent of damage to the dollar being difficult to quantify [2] - The issuance of government bonds and quantitative easing aimed to rescue the economy from crises, leading to a phase where the economy is in a state of stagnation [2] - There is a growing concern that a loss of confidence in U.S. national credit may trigger active selling of U.S. Treasury bonds, which has already begun to manifest [2] Group 3: Future Risks - If the debt ceiling is not raised, the U.S. could face economic recession and a "debt cliff" scenario; conversely, raising the ceiling would lead to an accumulation of debt that may require solutions like direct money printing, potentially causing hyperinflation [2] - The U.S. is caught between the threats of economic recession and inflation, which will further exacerbate the risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds [2]

经过表决前最后一刻的修修补补，特朗普2.0任期计划出台的标志性减税法案终于在美国众议院涉险过关，以赞成票仅比反对票多一票的微弱优势被送往参 议院。 议案在众院获批后，包括美国总统特朗普在内的共和党人暂时欢呼胜利。而面对美国政府负债加剧的争议，以及共和党党内的斗争，这项提出大规模减税与 支出的法案若要在参议院顺利通关，看来还难度不小。参议院的共和党人已经承诺，要对众议院通过的议案版本作出一些改动，那意味着在参议院必然会有 一番"撕扯"。 市场观察人士担忧，该法案的举措可能扩大美国政府的预算赤字，导致美债市场承受更大压力。毕竟，从本周三开始，30年期美国国债的收益率就稳处 5.0%上方，在周四回落以前，连日创2023年10月以来新高。 215票对214票，上千页篇幅减税案临"闯关"前数十处修改 据新华社报道，当地时间5月22日周四，美国众议院以215票赞成、214票反对的表决结果通过一项大规模税收与支出法案。所有民主党议员和两名共和党议 员投了反对票，另有一名共和党议员投弃权票。 法案获得众议院通过后，就此被提交参议院，接下来，将由参议院决定，它能否被送往特朗普的办公桌签字成为立法。 华尔街见闻此前提到，减税案进 ...

作 者丨吴斌 余纪昕 编 辑丨包芳鸣 周炎炎 刘雪莹 美国资产再出现"股汇债三杀"！ 北 京 时 间 5 月 2 2 日 ， 美 股 三 大 指 数 均 创 一 个 月 来 最 大 跌 幅 ， 标 普 5 0 0 指 数 跌 1 . 6 1% ， 纳 指 1 . 4 1%，道指跌1 . 9 1%，VIX恐慌指数狂飙1 5 . 4 2%。 长期国债成为抛售的重灾区。 美国2 0年期国债收益率日内冲高1 3个基点至5 . 1 2%，3 0年期国 债收益率升至5 . 0 9%；十年期国债收益率也升至近3个月的新高4 . 6 0%。 据财联社报道，今日（5月2 2日 ）凌晨美国财政部2 0年期国债标售数据出炉，本次发行的最 高中标利率达到5 . 0 4 7%，较预发行利率5 . 0 3 5%高出约1 . 2个基点，也是近6个月来最大尾部利 差，投标倍数也从近六个月平均水平2 . 5 7下降至2 . 4 6。 市场普遍评价称，结果相当糟糕。 | 名称▼ | 买入 | 卖品 | | --- | --- | --- | | 30Y 美国国 | 5.0987 | 5.0965 | | 30YRBOND.GB | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The deteriorating fiscal situation in the U.S. is threatening the positive atmosphere on Wall Street, with significant budget deficits and rising interest costs leading to a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's [1][2] Group 1: Fiscal Situation and Market Reactions - Investors sold U.S. government bonds and dollars following the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, which was attributed to large budget deficits and increasing interest costs [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5%, reflecting a continued upward trend in yields due to concerns over recession, inflation, and increased bond issuance from larger deficits [1][2] - The recent budget deficits are particularly alarming as they occur during a period of economic strength rather than during a recession, which typically sees a drop in tax revenues [1][3] Group 2: Legislative Developments and Economic Implications - The House Budget Committee passed a tax and spending bill expected to increase the deficit by trillions of dollars, with a proposal to extend expiring tax cuts and introduce new ones [1][3] - The projected increase in the budget deficit is approximately $3 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about the long-term imbalance between U.S. spending and tax revenues [3] - The total publicly held federal debt is around $29 trillion, nearly double the amount when the initial tax cuts were signed into law in 2017 [3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Despite rising Treasury yields, the stock market has shown resilience, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average posting gains [2] - Investors are closely monitoring changes in policies and interest rates, indicating a level of uncertainty that is reflected in market behavior [4] - Factors such as trade policy changes are seen as more likely to impact the market in the short term compared to long-standing concerns about U.S. fiscal health [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by major credit rating agencies, highlighting the implications of rising fiscal deficits and the potential for a "fiscal cliff" scenario in the U.S. economy [7][17][22]. Market Reaction - On May 19, U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq dropping over 1.2%, the S&P 500 down nearly 1%, and the Dow Jones falling over 0.5% [1][3]. - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Tesla down over 4% and Nvidia and TSMC down approximately 2% [3][4]. U.S. Treasury Yield Trends - Following the downgrade, U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.5% and the 30-year yield exceeding 5% [11][12]. - The increase in yields is attributed to concerns over inflation and fiscal sustainability, with the long-end yields driven by fiscal factors post-downgrade [12][18]. Fiscal Deficit Concerns - The U.S. budget deficit has consistently exceeded 6% of GDP over the past two years, with projections for FY2024 at 6.4% and FY2023 at 6.2% [15]. - The U.S. Treasury reported a deficit of over $1.3 trillion in the first half of FY2025, marking the second-highest historical figure for that period [15]. Credit Rating Downgrade Implications - The downgrade from AAA to AA1 by Moody's reflects structural issues related to long-term fiscal pressures, with all three major credit agencies having downgraded the U.S. rating [7][9][17]. - The downgrade is expected to increase borrowing costs for the U.S. government, impacting overall interest rate structures and potentially leading to higher rates for corporate and personal loans [21]. Future Outlook - Analysts warn of rising supply pressures in U.S. debt issuance, with net issuance expected to increase in FY2025 due to ongoing fiscal deficits [18]. - The potential for a "fiscal cliff" looms as negotiations over the debt ceiling and tax reforms continue, with significant uncertainty surrounding the outcomes [19][22].

Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrades of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by major rating agencies highlight the growing concerns over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the looming "fiscal cliff" that could have severe implications for the economy and global financial markets [1][2][10]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrades - In May 2025, Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1, citing increased government debt and rising interest payment ratios [1]. - Fitch downgraded the U.S. long-term foreign currency issuer default rating from AAA to AA+ in August 2023, attributing it to the frequent deadlock in debt ceiling negotiations [2]. - The cumulative downgrades by S&P, Fitch, and Moody's signify the end of the "AAA era" for the U.S. [2]. Group 2: Fiscal Challenges - The U.S. public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to approach 130% in 2024, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [2]. - The U.S. budget deficit has consistently exceeded 6% of GDP over the past two years, with projections of 6.4% for the 2024 fiscal year [5]. - The U.S. Treasury reported a fiscal deficit exceeding $1.3 trillion in the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, marking the second-highest half-year deficit in history [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade by Moody's, U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.5% and the 30-year yield exceeding 5% [3]. - The market's response to the downgrades has evolved; unlike in 2011, when a downgrade led to a flight to safety in U.S. Treasuries, the recent downgrades have resulted in increased yields, indicating a loss of confidence in the "safe haven" status of U.S. debt [4][10]. Group 4: Legislative Developments - The "One Big Beautiful Tax Cut" bill, which aimed to reduce taxes and adjust healthcare spending, faced significant political hurdles, reflecting ongoing partisan divisions over fiscal policy [6][7]. - The bill's passage through the House Budget Committee was contentious, highlighting the challenges in reaching a consensus on fiscal reforms [6][7]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - Analysts warn that the U.S. government's debt burden could escalate dramatically, with projections indicating that the debt-to-GDP ratio could reach 200% by 2055 if current trends continue [9]. - The potential for a "fiscal cliff" looms as political polarization hampers effective governance, raising fears of an unsustainable fiscal trajectory [11].