Core Viewpoint - The national fiscal work conference emphasizes the need for comprehensive strengthening of fiscal scientific management and the implementation of stringent financial discipline within government agencies to promote high-quality fiscal development [1] Group 1: Fiscal Management Strategies - The conference advocates for a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches to advance fiscal scientific management pilot programs [1] - It stresses the importance of balancing responsibility enforcement with mechanism improvement to maintain the "three guarantees" baseline [1] - The need to manage government debt effectively while addressing risks and establishing long-term mechanisms is highlighted [1] Group 2: Fiscal and Tax System Reform - The conference calls for a steady yet bold exploration of fiscal and tax system reforms [1] - It emphasizes the importance of managing and utilizing state assets effectively to enhance the national asset management system [1] Group 3: Financial Oversight - There is a focus on the precise identification of issues and effective problem-solving to strengthen financial accounting supervision [1]

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, emphasizing the urgency of economic research in key areas [2][3] - Experts discussed macroeconomic policies, fiscal reforms, revitalizing existing assets, and building a consumer-friendly financial system as essential topics for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][3] Group 1: Strategic Orientation - The economic development strategy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" should reflect its transitional nature, focusing on foundational work and comprehensive efforts to meet the 2035 modernization goal [3] - Key areas of focus include improving expectation management mechanisms, reforming income distribution systems, and optimizing fiscal structures to enhance investment in both physical and human capital [3] Group 2: Policy Optimization - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," presenting both challenges and long-term supportive conditions for macroeconomic policies [5] - Recommendations include consolidating industrial advantages, maintaining a reasonable manufacturing ratio, and addressing local government challenges in boosting consumption [5] Group 3: Debt and Asset Management - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will see a focus on revitalizing existing economic features, with an emphasis on debt restructuring and optimizing resource allocation [6] - A new framework for understanding debt, assets, and resources is proposed, highlighting the importance of maintaining resource liquidity to create valuable combinations [6] Group 4: Reform and Innovation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" necessitates deepening financial theoretical innovation to support the construction of a financial powerhouse [7] - Emphasis is placed on developing theories that address practical issues in finance, ensuring financial security, and enhancing the foundational role of financial systems in economic development [7] Group 5: Fiscal Policy and Consumer Finance - Fiscal reforms are essential for national governance, requiring alignment with other policies while addressing structural issues in the medium to long term [8] - Building a consumer-friendly financial system is crucial for facilitating domestic circulation, with recommendations for both supply-side financial reforms and demand-side enhancements [8]

中新网拉萨12月27日电 (李林)西藏自治区实施更加积极的财政政策成效和"十四五"时期深化财税体制改 革新闻发布会26日在拉萨召开。会议介绍，2025年中央持续加大对西藏的转移支付支持力度，西藏自治 区精准实施更加积极的财政政策，财政收支增速稳居全国前列。 2025年1-11月，西藏全区一般公共预算支出2715.61亿元，增长7.8%。综合预判，2025年全区财政收入 有望突破300亿元，支出有望突破3000亿元大关，将实现"双破三"的历史性突破。 西藏通过实施更加积极的财政政策，一方面，多措并举提振消费，支持大宗消费品更新升级；另一方 面，带动扩大有效投资。同时，强化政策支撑和资金保障，推动外贸规模稳步增长。 西藏自治区财政厅预算处处长刘雪介绍，"十四五"时期西藏进一步深化财税体制改革，重点围绕持续优 化税制结构、提升基层保障能力等方面开展工作。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 图为西藏自治区财政厅党组成员、副厅长刘武介绍相关情况。李林摄 西藏自治区财政厅党组成员、副厅长刘武介绍，2025年中央对西藏补助达到2881亿元(人民币，下同)， 均衡、生态等多项转移支付增幅位居全国或西部地区前列。2025年1-1 ...

Group 1 - The core argument presented by Gao Peiyong emphasizes the dual approach of policy support and reform innovation as essential for driving economic development in 2026 [1] - Current weak market expectations are identified as a significant factor hindering economic recovery, necessitating the establishment of a robust expectation management mechanism [1] - Gao proposes three key measures for improving expectation management: integrating expectation factors into macroeconomic analysis, explicitly including stable expectations in macroeconomic policy goals, and incorporating reform measures into macroeconomic regulation practices [1] Group 2 - Consumption is highlighted as a lasting driver of economic growth, with its effectiveness depending on both the release of current consumption potential and the cultivation of long-term consumption capacity [2] - The deep-rooted issue of insufficient consumer demand is attributed to changes in income and wealth accumulation patterns, leading to uncertainty in future expectations [2] - The Central Economic Work Conference's focus on implementing a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income is seen as a crucial step in reforming the income distribution system [2] Group 3 - The fiscal and tax system is called to transition towards a public finance model, focusing on optimizing the government revenue and expenditure structure [3] - Adjustments in government spending are recommended, shifting funds from "investment in material" to "investment in people," particularly in social welfare and livelihood security [3] - This transformation is described as a profound change in the fiscal system's function, aimed at enhancing public service spending and increasing investments in livelihood, ultimately fostering a virtuous cycle of income growth and consumption increase [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to enhance local fiscal autonomy through reforms in the fiscal and tax system, aiming for a clearer division of responsibilities and financial coordination between central and local governments, ultimately leading to sustainable growth in local fiscal capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Constraints on Local Fiscal Autonomy - Local fiscal autonomy reflects the ability of local governments to independently manage financial resources, which is influenced by the efficiency of intergovernmental fiscal relations and the division of responsibilities [2]. - Local fiscal capacity is primarily derived from general public budgets, government fund budgets, and state capital operation budgets, excluding social insurance funds [2]. - Current challenges include an under-optimized fiscal system at the provincial level, inefficient financial allocation mechanisms at the city and county levels, and insufficient governance capabilities [2][3]. Group 2: Optimization of Fiscal Systems - The fiscal system below the provincial level requires further optimization to align with the goals of modernizing China's economy, necessitating reforms in the division of fiscal responsibilities and expenditure [3]. - The transfer payment system needs improvement in terms of scientific accuracy and efficiency, with a focus on increasing the proportion of general transfer payments [4]. - Local tax systems are inadequate, with a heavy reliance on shared taxes and short-term revenue sources like land sales, which undermines fiscal stability [4]. Group 3: Governance Capacity Enhancement - Local governments face systemic shortcomings in fiscal governance, including reliance on outdated practices and insufficient capacity for zero-based budgeting reforms [5]. - The implementation of performance management systems is lacking, affecting the efficiency of fiscal resource allocation [5]. - There is a need for improved digital finance applications and enhanced professional capabilities among local fiscal staff [5]. Group 4: Sustainable Growth Mechanism for Local Fiscal Autonomy - A sustainable growth mechanism for local fiscal autonomy should be established through institutional reforms and enhanced governance capabilities [6]. - Key strategies include deepening fiscal reforms at the provincial level, optimizing financial allocation mechanisms, and improving fiscal management practices [7]. - Specific recommendations include clarifying the division of responsibilities between central and local governments, fostering stable local tax sources, and enhancing the structure of transfer payments [8][9]. Group 5: Financial Resource Utilization - Local governments should actively utilize existing assets and resources to enhance fiscal efficiency, including the management of idle assets and the promotion of market-oriented approaches [11][12]. - Establishing a comprehensive asset database and promoting competitive mechanisms for resource allocation can maximize fiscal resource value [12]. - The integration of digital technologies in fiscal management can improve oversight and efficiency in resource allocation [15].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the **expansion of domestic demand** as a long-term structural reform strategy to address challenges such as declining demographic dividends and globalization pressures. The shift is from supply-driven to demand-driven, emphasizing the need to supplement both upstream R&D and downstream consumption [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Increase in Resident Income**: A critical factor for expanding domestic demand. Policies like trade-in subsidies may have a short-term effect but can lead to over-reliance on such measures. The emphasis should be on increasing wage and asset income through fiscal reforms to achieve broad-based benefits [1][6]. - **Consumer Trends**: By 2026, service consumption, high-end consumption, and emerging self-reward consumption are expected to perform well. Policies may favor sectors like tourism and dining, while a declining real estate market could enhance purchasing power for younger consumers [1][9]. - **Investment Focus**: Effective investments are anticipated in water conservancy, energy, municipal infrastructure, and core technology sectors such as AI, biomedicine, and quantum communication. The green transition is expected to unlock consumption potential in areas like eco-tourism and energy-efficient appliances [1][11]. Industry-Specific Insights Home Appliance Sector - The home appliance industry is projected to experience a downturn in the second half of 2025 due to trade-in policies, but a recovery is expected in early 2026 as subsidies are renewed, leading to a replenishment cycle [1][12][13]. - **Sales Data**: By November 2025, air conditioner sales grew by approximately 2%, while refrigerator sales declined by about 1%. The overall industry saw a decline in the latter half of the year, particularly in Q4, where air conditioner sales dropped over 20% [12][13]. Fiscal Policy and Consumer Behavior - The fiscal reform is expected to shift focus from incremental taxation to more comprehensive measures, such as property and capital gains taxes, which will gradually influence overall household income and consumption [7][8]. - The effectiveness of subsidies is questioned, as they may lead to a crowding-out effect on autonomous consumption. For instance, a 300 billion yuan subsidy led to a 2.7 trillion yuan increase in retail sales, but the non-subsidy portion contributed negatively [6]. Investment Recommendations - **Home Appliances**: Companies like Midea, Haier, TCL, and Hisense are recommended for their strong domestic and international performance. The expectation is that these companies will benefit from the renewed subsidy policies in 2026 [15]. - **New Consumption Trends**: Focus on emerging brands in personal care and health products, as well as established brands with significant market barriers, such as Mao Geping and Shanghai Jahwa [18]. - **Health and Wellness Sector**: Companies like Xianle Health and Ximai Foods are highlighted for their growth potential in the health and wellness market, driven by the aging population and increasing health awareness [19][21]. Additional Insights - **Transportation Sector**: The aviation industry is expected to benefit directly from increased demand, while the shipping industry will see indirect benefits from heightened domestic trade activities [28]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Recommendations include focusing on the pet industry and functional ingredients, with companies like Zhongchong and Bailong Chuangyuan showing strong growth potential [31]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding the expansion of domestic demand, with significant investment opportunities across various sectors, particularly in health, home appliances, and new consumption trends. The emphasis on increasing resident income and effective fiscal reforms will be crucial in driving this growth [26][27].

（来源：天津日报） 二、落实好更加积极的财政政策的重点举措 转自：天津日报 2025年是"十四五"规划的收官之年，我国的经济运行始终保持着稳中有进的态势，展现了强大的韧性和 发展活力。党的二十届四中全会明确要求，完善宏观经济治理体系，确保高质量发展行稳致远。日前召 开的中央经济工作会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策 和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。要继续实施更加积极的 财政政策，依托自身优势主动应对挑战，不断巩固经济稳中向好的发展态势，为"十五五"开局注入信心 和动力。 一、充分认识实施更加积极的财政政策的重要意义 在外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出的背景下，财政是主动塑造经济增长路径、驱动高质 量发展的关键力量。财政政策作为宏观调控的主要手段，从"积极"升级为"更加积极"以来，实现了赤字 率的历史性突破、债务工具的大幅扩容以及支出结构的优化。在此基础上，2026年延续这一政策取向， 将进一步传递并增强经济稳定增长的信心。这不仅是应对短期经济波动的调节工具，更是着眼于长远发 展、推动经济结构转型升级的战略选择，同时也是经济 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者刘诗萌 北京报道 继2025年之后，"反内卷"将继续成为下一年经济工作的重点之一。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议提出，要坚持改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活 力，具体措施包括制定全国统一大市场建设条例，深入整治"内卷式"竞争；加紧清理拖欠企业账款；推 动平台企业和平台内经营者、劳动者共赢发展；拓展要素市场化改革试点；健全地方税体系等。 对比2024年年终中央经济工作会议在这一领域的表述会发现，推动全国统一大市场建设的表述从去年 的"制定全国统一大市场建设指引"增加到两条，位置从第三条上升到了第一条，国企改革、促进民营经 济的表述相应推后。对于平台经济的表述，也从整体上加强监管有了具体的指向，要推动三方共赢。此 外，对于财税体制的改革、增加地方自主财力的方法也有了明确的方向，即健全地方税体系。 "反内卷"已初见成效 2025年，"反内卷"是中国最重要的经济政策之一。 1月，《全国统一大市场建设指引（试行）》正式发布，提出构建全国统一大市场的重点为"五统一、一 破除"；3月，综合整治"内卷式"竞争首次写入政府工作报告，不仅是对上一年7月政治局会 ...

努力做大经济和收入"蛋糕"，财政运行的基础才能更坚实、更有可持续性。强化逆周期和跨周期调 节，实施更加积极的宏观政策，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期，努力扩大内需、做强国内大循环，促进 经济持续健康发展。经济向好、企业成长，财政收入就会有更多源头活水。从财税体制改革看，还需完 善地方税、直接税体系，规范税收优惠政策，保持合理的宏观税负水平，增加地方自主财力。 善于"过日子"，切好"蛋糕"，把每一分钱花出最大效益。"凡事预则立"，预算管理在增强财政可持 续性中扮演重要角色，要加强财政资源和预算统筹，深化零基预算改革，打破"基数"依赖，根据实际需 要、区分轻重缓急，科学合理安排预算。推进财政科学管理，不断提升财政治理效能。优化财政支出结 构，把资金用在民生保障、科技创新等刀刃上。全面实施预算绩效管理，将绩效管理理念、方法和要求 贯穿预算管理全过程，切实提升资金效益和政策效能。坚持尽力而为、量力而行原则，把保障和改善民 生建立在经济发展和财力可持续的基础之上。 有效防范化解风险，方能行稳致远。当前，防范化解地方政府债务风险的任务依然艰巨，有的地方 债务负担较重。要落实好一揽子化债政策，坚持在发展中化债、在化债中发展，持 ...

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high level of spending [11][12] - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, with a focus on guiding expectations and improving transmission efficiency [1][23] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in supporting economic growth and structural transformation, with a deficit rate maintained around 4% [2][61] - Special bonds and new special debt scales are anticipated to expand slightly compared to 2025, aiming to keep fiscal expenditure growth in line with or above nominal GDP growth [2][63] - The focus will be on investing in social welfare and new infrastructure, particularly in areas like elderly care and child welfare [2][61] Group 3: Tax and Fiscal System Reform - Fiscal reforms will address structural contradictions, focusing on macro tax burden, central-local relations, and social security systems [3][61] - The aim is to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives to curb excessive competition among local governments [3][61] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with an emphasis on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement a rate cut of about 10 basis points to maintain liquidity [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Macro Governance - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible response to market changes, enhancing policy effectiveness [1][42] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is evolving, with a focus on improving the overall governance system [1][42]