Core Viewpoint - The fiscal and tax system reform during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is essential for addressing current fiscal constraints and advancing the modernization of national governance, aiming to inject strong momentum into Chinese-style modernization through budget reform, tax optimization, central-local relationship restructuring, and comprehensive debt management [4]. Group 1: Achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasized establishing a modern fiscal system, focusing on accelerating the establishment of a modern fiscal system and improving the modern tax system, with progress made in budget reform, tax reform, and central-local relationship adjustments, despite facing challenges such as sluggish fiscal revenue growth and local debt pressure [5]. Group 2: Key Directions for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on four main areas for fiscal and tax reform: performance-based budgeting, modernization of the tax system, central-local collaboration, and comprehensive debt management, addressing new challenges such as fiscal revenue growth and local government land finance transformation [6][7]. Group 3: Performance-Based Budgeting - Emphasizing the need for increased public budget expenditure and improved expenditure effectiveness, the next phase of budget reform will focus on enhancing budget performance management to optimize the allocation and use of fiscal resources [7]. Group 4: Modernization of the Tax System - The direction of tax reform during the "15th Five-Year Plan" includes aligning tax reforms with industrial structure adjustments, improving the direct tax system, and enhancing the local tax system, particularly through advancing consumption tax reform [7]. Group 5: Central-Local Collaboration - To address the imbalance between central and local fiscal powers, increasing local fiscal autonomy is crucial, which can be achieved through tax reforms and enhancing consumption tax and property tax reforms to alleviate pressure on central finances [7]. Group 6: Comprehensive Debt Management - Following the large-scale issuance of local debt since 2015, there is a need for a unified debt supervision framework to manage the risks associated with hidden debts and to accelerate the transformation of financing platforms, which is essential for establishing a differentiated pricing system for market investors [7].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The fiscal and tax system reform during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is essential for addressing current fiscal constraints and advancing national governance modernization, aiming to inject strong momentum into Chinese-style modernization [4] - The budget system reform is expected to release resource potential, while tax system optimization will adjust the distribution pattern [4] - The restructuring of central-local relations is anticipated to stimulate governance vitality, and comprehensive debt management will enhance fiscal efficiency [4] Group 2: Market Performance - Domestic equity market indices generally rose, while the bond market experienced a pullback, with sustained enthusiasm in the new share market [5] - TMT-themed funds showed significant net value increases, while passive index funds saw continued outflows from technology sector ETFs [5] - Financial, real estate, and new energy sector ETFs experienced notable net inflows, while Hong Kong stock ETFs maintained substantial inflows [5] Group 3: Industry-Specific Developments - In August, domestic downstream consumption of electrolytic copper reached a near six-year low in inventory, with expectations for copper prices to rise due to increased demand in Q4 [6] - Lithium prices have reached approximately 75,000 yuan per ton, with supply disruptions from mines like Zangge Mining potentially driving short-term price increases [6] - The approval process for innovative drug INDs has been shortened to 30 days, significantly enhancing clinical research efficiency and boosting confidence in the domestic innovative pharmaceutical industry [6] Group 4: Company Performance - 康耐特光学 (Kangnait Optical) ranks fifth globally in resin lens sales and first among Chinese manufacturers, with a projected revenue of 2.06 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth [6] - 越秀地产 (Yuexiu Property) reported a sales amount of 5.51 billion yuan in August 2025, a 45% year-on-year decline, while the cumulative sales for January to August 2025 reached 73.01 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase year-on-year [7]

2025 年 9 月 15 日 总量研究 深化财税体制改革：赋能"十五五"高质量发展的制度基石 ——《财政洞悉》系列第九篇 要点 核心观点："十五五"时期的财税体制改革，既是破解当前财政紧约束的必由之 路，更是推进国家治理现代化的长远之策。通过预算制度革新释放资源潜力、税 制优化调节分配格局、央地关系重构激发治理活力、债务全口径管理扩大财政效 能，这一系列改革将为中国式现代化注入强劲动能。 "十四五"成果：财税体制改革的现实基础。2021 年 3 月 13 日公布的《中华 人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和 2035 年远景目标纲要》提 出要建立现代财税体制，主要有两个方面的内涵：加快建立现代财政制度、完善 现代税收制度。经过四年半左右的时间，回顾来看，"十四五"期间财税体制改 革在预算制度改革、税收制度改革、理顺央地关系等方面均取得进展，但仍面临 财政收入增长乏力、支出刚性约束、地方债务压力等深层矛盾。 "十五五"期间，财税体制改革的核心方向。把握"十五五"规划中财税体制改 革可能方向的两个思路：其一，党的二十届三中全会通过《中共中央关于进一步 全面深化改革 推进中国式现代化的决定》，提出"深化 ...

过去5年，尽管面临着诸多始料未及的"黑天鹅"，但我国"钱袋子"还是越来越丰盈。 9月12日，财政部部长蓝佛安在介绍"十四五"时期财政改革发展成效时表示，"十四五"时期，全国一般 公共预算收入预计达到106万亿元，比"十三五"时期增加17万亿元，增长约19%。 近二成的增长，离不开各地的发展。从2024年数据看，16个省份财政收入比2020年增长20%以上；7个 省份超5000亿元，其中2个省份超1万亿元。 值得注意的是，在收入增加的同时，支出强度也是前所未有。数据显示，过去5年，全国一般公共预算 支出预计超过136万亿元，比"十三五"时期增加26万亿元，增长24%。同时，结构不断优化，更多"真金 白银"投向了发展大事和民生实事。 财政民生投入加大 财政政策作为宏观调控主要手段，具有扩大总需求和定向调结构的双重优势。 "近三年来若以广义财政支出作为财政力度指标，财政政策力度与内需相关性显著提高，而这个规律在 之前的观察中并不明显，这一方面是因为后地产时期，政府债对社融部分支撑明显，政府支出对于稳经 济的意义更加显著；另一方面，物价走弱时期财政的影响则更为核心，当前经济环境下，财政政策扩张 的持续性、连贯性则尤为 ...

Core Insights - The financial situation in China has improved significantly over the past five years, with public budget revenue expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, an increase of 17 trillion yuan or approximately 19% compared to the previous five-year plan [1] - Public budget expenditure is also at an unprecedented level, projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, an increase of 26 trillion yuan or 24% from the previous period [1] Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact - Fiscal policy has become a crucial tool for macroeconomic regulation, enhancing total demand and structural adjustments, with a notable increase in correlation between fiscal spending and domestic demand [2] - The deficit ratio has risen from 2.7% to 4%, with new local government special bond quotas set at 19.4 trillion yuan and tax reductions exceeding 1 trillion yuan, indicating expanded fiscal policy space [2][3] Economic Growth and Contributions - China's economy has achieved an average growth rate of 5.5% over the past four years, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [3] - The government has implemented measures to manage local government debt effectively, including a one-time arrangement of 6 trillion yuan to replace hidden debts, alleviating repayment pressures [3] Social Welfare Investments - Significant investments in social welfare have been made, with education spending at 20.5 trillion yuan, social security and employment at 19.6 trillion yuan, and healthcare at 10.6 trillion yuan during the current five-year period [3] - Employment support funds have increased by 29% to 318.6 billion yuan, resulting in over 50 million new urban jobs [4] Fiscal Reform Initiatives - The Ministry of Finance is accelerating fiscal reform, focusing on improving budget management and tax systems, with a tenfold increase in funds transferred to the general public budget compared to the previous five-year plan [6] - The government aims to clarify responsibilities and enhance financial coordination between central and local authorities, with nearly 50 trillion yuan in transfer payments to support local governance [7]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 过去5年，尽管面临着诸多始料未及的"黑天鹅"，但我国"钱袋子"还是越来越丰盈。 9月12日，财政部部长蓝佛安在介绍"十四五"时期财政改革发展成效时表示，"十四五"时期，全国一般 公共预算收入预计达到106万亿元，比"十三五"时期增加17万亿元，增长约19%。 近二成的增长，离不开各地的发展。从2024年数据看，16个省份财政收入比2020年增长20%以上；7个 省份超5000亿元，其中2个省份超1万亿元。 值得注意的是，在收入增加的同时，支出强度也是前所未有。数据显示，过去5年，全国一般公共预算 支出预计超过136万亿元，比"十三五"时期增加26万亿元，增长24%。同时，结构不断优化，更多"真金 白银"投向了发展大事和民生实事。 "近三年来若以广义财政支出作为财政力度指标，财政政策力度与内需相关性显著提高，而这个规律在 之前的观察中并不明显，这一方面是因为后地产时期，政府债对社融部分支撑明显，政府支出对于稳经 济的意义更加显著；另一方面，物价走弱时期财政的影响则更为核心，当前经济环境下，财政政策扩张 的持续性、连贯性则尤为关键。"方正证券分析师杨文 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the significant increase in public budget allocations for education, social security, health, and housing during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, totaling nearly 100 trillion yuan in fiscal spending [1][2] - The central government's fiscal revenue is projected to reach 106 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," an increase of 17 trillion yuan compared to the previous five-year period, while total public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, marking a 24% growth [2][3] - The fiscal policy has become more proactive and adaptable to economic conditions, with a focus on supporting stable economic growth, particularly during periods of economic downturn [2][3] Group 2 - Continuous tax reform efforts are being made to optimize resource allocation and enhance efficiency, including budget management and tax structure adjustments [3][4] - The government debt situation is under control, with a total debt of 92.6 trillion yuan, including various categories of debt, and a government debt ratio of 68.7%, indicating a reasonable level of risk [3] - Looking ahead to the "15th Five-Year Plan," the fiscal department aims to enhance macroeconomic regulation, deepen tax system reforms, and improve fiscal management to support high-quality economic development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current fiscal pressure in China is closely related to previous constructive debt rather than an increase in "welfare" from enterprises and households. Improving expenditure efficiency and optimizing expenditure structure are crucial for sustainable fiscal health, followed by revenue enhancement [1][5]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Revenue and GDP Ratio - Experts have suggested increasing the fiscal revenue-to-GDP ratio, with former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei advocating for this in his 2025 paper on fiscal policy reform [2]. - The fiscal revenue ratio reflects the government's ability to concentrate financial resources from the economy and its macro-control capacity. China's fiscal revenue includes four main accounts: general public budget, government fund budget, state-owned capital operating budget, and social insurance fund budget [3]. Current Fiscal Situation - The macro tax burden in China is currently at 28.2%, with a reasonable target considered to be around 30%. This indicates room for increasing the fiscal revenue ratio [4]. - The decline in fiscal revenue ratio in recent years is attributed to large-scale tax cuts and fee reductions initiated since 2019, with the ratio dropping from 28-29% in 2018 to 26% in 2023 [9]. Historical Context - Since the tax-sharing system reform in 1994, the fiscal revenue ratio has seen fluctuations, peaking during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" at 21.4% and declining to an average of 16.7% during the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" [7]. - The fiscal revenue ratio has decreased from 35.7% in 2013 to 30.4% in 2022, a decline of 5.3 percentage points, while the average for 11 middle-income countries increased slightly during the same period [10]. Taxation and Revenue Enhancement - Lou Jiwei has indicated that there is potential to raise the value-added tax (VAT) rate, which currently stands at a low 13%, compared to an average of 20% in other countries [14]. - Other revenue sources, such as social security fund income and land transfer income, have limited growth potential, while the personal income tax has structural weaknesses that make reform challenging [14]. Alternative Revenue Strategies - Experts suggest enhancing the state-owned capital operating budget and reducing unfair tax incentives as alternative methods to increase fiscal revenue without raising tax rates [20][21]. - The state-owned capital operating budget, which is currently underutilized, could significantly contribute to fiscal revenue, especially as land finance declines [21]. Efficiency in Fiscal Spending - Improving the efficiency of government spending and investment is essential for maintaining economic vitality and ensuring public service provision [12][23]. - The focus should be on balancing revenue enhancement with expenditure efficiency, rather than solely increasing the fiscal revenue ratio [18].

中央纪委国家监委网站 文子玉 重""两新"；一次性安排6万亿元债务限额置换存量隐性债务，帮助地方极大减轻偿债压力，腾出财力用于保 民生、促发展等。 在纵深推进财税改革管理方面，财政部聚焦优化配置和提升效益，深化预算制度改革，加强资金资源资产统 筹，强化预算绩效管理。聚焦效率和公平，优化税制结构，规范税收优惠政策，强化税收调节，不断健全同 经济社会结构相适应的税收制度。聚焦调动中央和地方两个积极性，建立促进高质量发展转移支付激励约束 机制，持续优化政府间财政事权和支出责任划分，进一步厘清"事谁干、钱谁出"。在财税管理上，突出系统 化、精细化、标准化、法治化，从预算编制源头开始，发挥支出标准、信息技术等支撑作用，将财政管理贯 通资金使用全链条，横向覆盖到各部门各单位，纵向延伸到市县基层。 "展望'十五五'，财政部将紧紧锚定全面建成社会主义现代化强国目标，更高效能加强财政宏观调控，更大力 度深化财税体制改革，更高水平推进财政科学管理，为推进中国式现代化贡献新的财政力量。"蓝佛安表示。 "'十四五'时期，财政部门坚决贯彻落实党中央决策部署，坚持稳中求进、改革创新，顶住风险挑战，拓展发 展空间，国家财政实力持续增强，效 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese government has allocated significant financial resources for public welfare during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with total fiscal spending nearing 100 trillion yuan across various sectors [1][3][4]. Fiscal Strength and Budget Allocation - The national general public budget revenue is expected to reach 106 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," an increase of 17 trillion yuan or approximately 19% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [4]. - Total public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, marking an increase of 26 trillion yuan or 24% from the previous five-year period [4]. - Key allocations include 20.5 trillion yuan for education, 19.6 trillion yuan for social security and employment, 10.6 trillion yuan for health care, and 4 trillion yuan for housing security [1][3]. Economic Policy and Development - Fiscal policies have become more proactive and precise, enhancing macroeconomic stability and supporting healthy economic growth [4][5]. - The government is focusing on counter-cyclical adjustments to smooth short-term fluctuations while promoting long-term development [4]. Social Welfare and Public Services - The government is committed to improving living standards, with initiatives such as 1 billion yuan for childcare subsidies and 200 million yuan for free preschool education [3]. - The fiscal strategy emphasizes that the most significant allocations are directed towards improving the welfare of the population [5]. Risk Management and Financial Stability - The government has implemented measures to manage local government debt and ensure financial stability, including a five-year transfer payment of nearly 50 trillion yuan to local governments [5]. - Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and reform small financial institutions to mitigate risks [5]. Fiscal Reform and Governance - Ongoing fiscal reforms aim to optimize resource allocation, enhance efficiency, and ensure fairness in tax structures [5][6]. - The government is focusing on a systematic and standardized approach to fiscal management, extending oversight from budget preparation to fund utilization across all levels of government [6]. International Cooperation - The Ministry of Finance is actively engaged in international financial cooperation, contributing to global economic governance and supporting initiatives like the Belt and Road [6].