美国最高法院首席大法官John Roberts撰写的多数意见并未涉及退款问题，分析猜测大概是打算将其留 给下级法院处理。然而，大法官Brett Kavanaugh在反对意见中谈到了这个问题，他认为这一过程可能 会"一团糟"，而且会"对美国财政部产生重大影响"。 特朗普在周五新闻发布会上批评法官未能解决关税款项处理问题，并称"我们最终会在法庭上纠缠五 年"。对于美国企业和整体经济而言，这意味着更多贸易不确定性。 最高法院裁定特朗普关税违法后，美国政府如何退还已征关税成为悬而未决的问题。 据央视新闻，当地时间20日，美国最高法院裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA） 实施的相关大规模关税措施缺乏明确法律授权。 高盛估计，截至裁决时政府已根据IEEPA征收1150亿至1450亿美元关税。这些资金如何流回企业手中， 以及特朗普新宣布的关税将如何实施，成为市场面临的双重难题。 此前华尔街见闻提及，高盛认为，如果法院否决关税，退税不会自动进行，可能需要数月甚至更长时 间，且有赖于进口商采取后续法律行动。 美国全国零售联合会呼吁建立简化的退税流程，称关税减免将为企业投资运营提供经济助力。但实际操 作远非如 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite uncertainties related to tariffs and investment opportunities in other regions, companies are still focusing on the U.S. market, indicating its resilience and ongoing demand for mergers and capital [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Mark Mason, CFO of Citigroup, stated that the U.S. economy has shown resilience amid trade tensions, with continued momentum in mergers and capital demand [1] - Many CEOs and CFOs are concerned about the potential impact of tariffs and their implications for inflation, but there is no sentiment among multinational companies to "sell off" their U.S. investments [1] Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Companies are expected to realize over time that betting against the U.S. is not advisable, reinforcing the notion that the U.S. remains a strong investment opportunity [1]

智通财经APP获悉，尽管法国政治动荡一度被市场视为对本土企业的最大威胁，但出人意料的是，国内 导向型股票反而成为大赢家。与此同时，出口型企业则因美国关税威胁和欧元走强等因素而步履维艰。 CAC40指数的一大短板在于，其成分股的本土营收占比仅为16%，这一特征不仅令投资者却步，也使得 该指数与欧元区其他市场的估值差距再度拉大，达到了疫情后初期之外的历史高位水平。 自2024年6月法国总统马克龙宣布提前举行大选以来，高盛编制的一篮子与法国经济相关的行业指数涨 幅已超30%，不仅大幅跑赢法国蓝筹股CAC40指数2.8%的涨幅，表现也优于欧洲斯托克600指数。 马克龙的大选决定引发了持续的政治不确定性，法国在不到两年时间里换了四位总理，彼时几乎无人看 好本土股表现。市场曾普遍认为，银行、公用事业和电信板块可能会落后于大盘，而全球经济的复苏韧 性则会利好LVMH(LVMUY.US)、赛诺菲(SNY.US)等出口型企业。然而，同期高盛编制的海外业务相关 板块指数却下跌了10%。 巴克莱银行策略师Emmanuel Cau表示："原本预期欧洲出口股将在2026年反弹的投资者，或许需要重新 审慎规划投资策略。市场此前预计资金会 ...

Group 1: Global Gold Demand Trends - The World Gold Council's 2025 Global Gold Demand Trends Report indicates that global gold demand will reach 5002 tons in 2025, setting a new historical high [1][6] - The total monetary value of gold demand is projected to hit $555 billion, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][6] - The report highlights that the fourth quarter of 2025 will see record-breaking gold demand, contributing to a strong overall performance for the year [1][6] Group 2: Gold Price Dynamics - The average annual price of gold is expected to soar to $3431 per ounce in 2025, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase [1][6] - The report attributes the robust demand to three core driving forces, although specific details on these forces are not provided in the excerpts [1][6] Group 3: Economic Indicators from Japan - Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) rose by 2.0% year-on-year in January, below the expected 2.2% and previous value of 2.3% [2][7] - The overall CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, increased by 2.4%, also falling short of the anticipated 2.6% [2][7] - A significant decline in energy prices, particularly a 14.8% drop in gasoline prices, is noted as a major factor contributing to the easing inflationary pressures [2][7]

SHMET 网讯：美国铝业市场参与者预计，2026年初将有大量进口铝材涌入以补充库存缺口。受现货供 应紧张影响，Platts美国中西部铝溢价已攀升至历史新高。 该溢价于1月23日首次突破1美元/磅关口，评估价格为1.0095美元/磅。自年初以来，生产商、贸易商和 消费方均预期溢价将飙升至1美元/磅以上，尤其因关税政策持续不确定性，进口商不愿大量补充库存。 美国国内贸易与行业协会数据显示，2025年末铝流入量与铝制品订单量同步下滑。美国关税政策的不确 定性持续笼罩2026年初市场动态，迫使多数参与者维持薄弱的现货交易和紧缺的库存水平。"除非你愿 意冒险采购无订单支撑的金属，否则就是在赌运气，"一位铝锭消费商向Platts表示。 S&P Global Energy旗下Platts数据显示，中西部溢价在1月出现反弹，但交易量仍处于低位。 2025年末至2026年初的美国需求基本维持不变，采购意愿被认为保持稳定。根据美国铝业协会最新统 计，2025年1月至11月国内铝生产商的平均订单量较2024年同期仅相差0.5个百分点。 但数据显示，铝订单量在2025年末开始下滑。11月平板轧制产品（板材、板坯、罐料和箔材）订单环 ...

1月26日(周一)，美元兑加元延续承压下行态势，盘中最低下探1.3677，截至发稿交投于该位置，日内跌 幅0.1679%，今开与昨收均为1.3697，最高触及1.3709。受美元指数走弱、原油价格支撑加元及美加货 币政策博弈影响，汇价短期震荡走弱，延续开年以来的区间博弈格局。 关键点位方面，下方核心支撑为1.3677日内低点，跌破后将进一步下探1.3650一线；上方阻力先看 1.3700整数关口，突破后可上看1.3750，若无法有效站上则反弹乏力，仍将回归震荡。 后续需重点关注1月28日加拿大央行议息会议，此次会议料维持利率不变，政策声明对通胀和经济的判 断将影响加元走势；同时跟踪国际原油价格波动、美国经济数据及美元指数走势，直接主导汇价短期方 向。此外，美加墨协议审查的相关动态也需持续留意，贸易情绪变化将成为重要扰动因素。 风险层面，需警惕原油价格因地缘风险降温出现回调，进而削弱加元支撑；若美国经济数据超预期走 强，推动美元指数阶段性反弹，美元兑加元或顺势回弹。短期来看，汇价大概率维持1.3650-1.3750区间 震荡，多空博弈下难现单边趋势，油价与美元强弱将成为短期走势核心推手。 美加货币政策分化形成博 ...

Group 1: European Central Bank (ECB) Decisions - The ECB decided to maintain interest rates unchanged during the December 17-18 meeting, indicating that the current monetary policy stance is in a "good state" to balance economic support and inflation control [1][6] - The ECB emphasized its flexibility to adjust interest rates up or down in response to changes in economic and inflation outlooks [1][6] - The ECB raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, despite global trade challenges [1][6] Group 2: UK Government Borrowing - The UK government saw a larger-than-expected reduction in borrowing in December, with government spending exceeding tax revenue by £11.6 billion (approximately $15.6 billion) [1][6] - The deficit decreased by £7.1 billion compared to the same month last year, which was lower than the median forecast of £13 billion from economists [1][6] - This marks the lowest borrowing level for the UK government in December since 2003 [1][6]

Core Insights - The report from Dubai Ports World indicates that despite increasing trade tensions and market volatility, 94% of respondents expect trade growth in 2026 to be on par with or faster than in 2025 [1] Group 1: Trade Growth Expectations - 54% of respondents anticipate that trade growth in 2026 will exceed that of 2025, while 40% believe it will remain stable [1] - The optimism is set against a backdrop of significant macroeconomic uncertainty, with 53% of respondents expecting high or extreme policy uncertainty [1] - 90% of respondents foresee an increase or maintenance of trade barriers, yet only 25% expect these challenges to negatively impact their business [1] Group 2: Regional Trade Potential - The regions identified with the most trade growth potential for 2026 include Europe (22%), China (17%), Asia-Pacific (14%), and North America (13%) [1] Group 3: Supply Chain and Trade Route Adjustments - Companies are actively reshaping their supply chains and trade routes to address uncertainties, with key strategies including: - Elevating resilience as a strategic core focus, with 51% diversifying suppliers, 44% increasing inventory levels, and 36% adopting "friend-shoring" [1] Group 4: Trade Route Flexibility - 26% of companies plan to implement new trade routes, while 23% are evaluating new routes, driven primarily by cost savings (38%), improved connectivity and inland infrastructure (36%), and faster customs procedures (35%) [2] Group 5: Customs and Border Challenges - 60% of respondents identify customs clearance as a major cause of delays and disruptions [2] - Companies are focusing investments on warehousing and logistics hubs (39%), road networks (36%), and border and customs processing infrastructure (36%) [2]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous estimate in October 2022 [1][6] - The growth is attributed to businesses and economies adapting to the recent easing of U.S. tariff policies and the ongoing investment boom in artificial intelligence, which has boosted asset wealth and productivity expectations [1][6] - IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted that global growth remains resilient and that the forecasts for 2025 and 2026 now exceed previous estimates made in October 2024, indicating a recovery from trade and tariff disruptions [1][6] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - Goldman Sachs economists estimate that President Trump's proposed 10% tariff could reduce the Eurozone's GDP by approximately 0.1 percentage points, with affected countries experiencing a GDP decline of 0.1% to 0.2% [2][7] - The analysis suggests that Germany would face the largest impact, with a potential GDP drop of about 0.2% under gradual tariff measures, and a possible increase to 0.3% under full tariff implementation [2][7] - The report warns that negative market sentiment or increased financial market volatility could lead to economic impacts exceeding current estimates [2][7] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The U.S. Dollar Index experienced fluctuations, trading around 99.10, influenced by profit-taking and concerns over trade uncertainties stemming from tariff threats [3][8] - The Euro gained ground, recovering above the 1.1600 mark, supported by a weaker dollar and short-covering, despite soft CPI data limiting its upward movement [4][9] - The British Pound also saw a slight increase, trading around 1.3420, buoyed by a weaker dollar and positive economic data from the UK [5][10]

Lombard Odier Asset Management宏观研究主管弗洛里安·伊尔波(Florian Ielpo)表示："短期内，任何通过 对欧洲加征关税的意外升级，都可能引发典型的避险情绪，尤其是在今年开局强劲、市场情绪乐观的背 景下。""在这种情况下，政府债券可能受益，优质资产或将跑赢，黄金也可能受到追捧。" 智通财经APP获悉，在美国总统特朗普企图接管格陵兰的举动引发美欧贸易战担忧、令市场情绪持续紧 绷之际，白银价格创下历史新高，黄金则在纪录高位附近交投。数据显示，周二，白银一度触及每盎司 94.7295美元的历史高点，黄金则徘徊在每盎司4,670美元附近。 当地时间1月17日，特朗普在社交媒体上宣布，将从2月1日起对来自丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、 英国、荷兰和芬兰的输美商品加征10%关税，并宣称加征关税的税率将从6月1日起提高至25%，直到相 关方就美国"全面、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。 美国对其北约盟友采取的强硬立场震动了市场，提振了避险需求，并重新激活"抛售美国资产"的交易逻 辑。投资者目前正等待欧洲方面将作何回应。 当地时间1月18日，欧盟召开紧急会议，就反制方案可行性进行磋商。方案之 ...