Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde indicated that economic growth in the Eurozone may slow this quarter, despite a recent trade agreement with the U.S. reducing uncertainty, global trade conditions remain unclear [1] - Lagarde noted that the current 15% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on most European goods are slightly higher than the ECB's June assumptions but are "far below" the extreme rates envisioned by the bank [1] - The ECB is expected to maintain the deposit rate at 2% during the September meeting, following a pause in rate changes after eight consecutive cuts since June 2024 [1] - Lagarde mentioned that the ECB staff will consider the impact of the EU-U.S. trade agreement on the Eurozone economy in the upcoming September economic forecasts, which will guide future decisions [1] Group 2 - The Eurozone economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in the second quarter, demonstrating resilience amid trade and geopolitical pressures, with inflation hovering around the ECB's target of 2% [1] - Lagarde emphasized the Eurozone's resilience in the face of a challenging global environment earlier this year [2] - Lagarde confirmed her commitment to completing her term as ECB President, which will last until October 2027, amid rumors of her potential early departure [2]

Group 1 - The report warns that trade policies from the Trump administration could lead to a reduction in U.S. manufacturing investment by up to $490 billion by 2029 [1][2] - Trade uncertainty may cause companies to delay investments in new factories, production facilities, and research and development, which could slow innovation and reduce factory jobs [1][2] - The report compares the ambiguity of U.S. tariff policies to the economic challenges faced by the UK post-Brexit, indicating that prolonged trade instability can significantly suppress corporate investment [1] Group 2 - If the U.S. experiences long-term trade instability, manufacturing investment could decrease by 13% annually, resulting in a cumulative loss of approximately $490 billion by 2029 [2] - Even if trade concerns are resolved immediately, the damage already inflicted on the industry will persist, with a potential average annual investment reduction of 1% leading to a loss of about $42.2 billion in manufacturing spending by 2029 [2] - Manufacturers are particularly sensitive to policy fluctuations due to the long-term planning and high costs associated with decisions like building factories and purchasing advanced equipment [2]

Market Overview - US stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones down by 34.30 points (0.08%) closing at 44911.82, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.03% to 21629.77, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.01% to 6449.15 [1] - Major tech stocks had varied performances, with Tesla up 1.4%, Nvidia up 0.8%, and Meta down 2.3% [1] - The solar energy sector saw significant gains, with SunRun and First Solar rising by 11.3% and 9.6% respectively, following new federal tax credit regulations [1] Economic Indicators - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 0.2%, with notable gains from Bilibili (over 2%), XPeng, NetEase, and NIO (over 1%) [2] - Recent data indicated a rise in retail sales, but overall consumer confidence was negatively impacted by increasing inflation concerns [2] - The 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields rose by 1.3 basis points to 3.77% and 4.33% respectively, reflecting market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Morgan Stanley suggested that the Federal Reserve may keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged this year, but weak employment data in August could prompt action in the next meeting [3] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in Jackson Hole, where Chairman Powell is expected to provide insights on economic outlook and policy framework [2][3] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that from 2016 to 2020, a total of 16.5 billion yuan in subsidies were issued for new energy vehicles, with Beijing New Energy receiving approximately 555.55 million yuan, accounting for over 30% of the total [11] - The tax authorities disclosed two tax evasion cases in the "new three samples" sector (electric vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic products), highlighting ongoing compliance issues despite supportive policies [12][13] Company Announcements - China Heavy Industry announced the acceptance of its application for voluntary delisting, while China Shipbuilding will resume trading on August 19 [28] - BYD's public relations manager emphasized the importance of healthy competition in the automotive market, advocating for a focus on development rather than negative rivalry [20]

Market Overview - US stock market showed narrow fluctuations, with the Dow Jones down 34.30 points (0.08%) closing at 44,911.82, Nasdaq up 0.03% at 21,629.77, and S&P 500 down 0.01% at 6,449.15 [2] - Major tech stocks had mixed performances, with Tesla up 1.4%, Nvidia up 0.8%, Amazon up 0.2%, while Apple and Google down 0.3%, and Meta down 2.3% [2] Retail Sector Insights - Investors are closely watching upcoming earnings reports from major retailers like Walmart, Home Depot, and Target to assess the impact of trade uncertainties and inflation on US consumer behavior [3] - Recent data indicates that while retail sales have generally increased, overall consumer confidence has been negatively affected by rising inflation concerns [3] - Analysts suggest that retail earnings this week may reflect worries about tariffs, inflation, and anticipated economic slowdown [3] Bond Market and Federal Reserve - Mid to long-term US Treasury yields have risen, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 1.3 basis points to 3.77% and the 10-year Treasury yield up 1.3 basis points to 4.33% [4] - Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points next month, although expectations for further cuts this year have decreased [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in Jackson Hole is anticipated to provide clarity on economic outlook and policy framework [4] Commodity Market - The solar sector saw gains, with SunRun and First Solar up 11.3% and 9.6% respectively, following new federal tax credit regulations for solar and wind projects [5] - International oil prices increased, with WTI crude up 0.99% at $63.42 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.14% at $66.60 per barrel, amid geopolitical developments [5] - Gold prices showed slight fluctuations, with COMEX gold futures for August delivery down 0.13% at $3,331.70 per ounce [6]

Core Viewpoint - The major Wall Street indices showed a lackluster performance on Monday, with investors closely monitoring upcoming earnings reports from major retailers and the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole [1] Group 1: Retail Sector Insights - Major retailers such as Walmart (WMT.N), Home Depot (HD.N), and Target (TGT.N) are set to release their earnings reports this week, which will provide insights into how trade uncertainties and inflation expectations are impacting U.S. consumers [1] - Despite a significant increase in retail sales as expected, overall consumer confidence has been negatively affected by rising inflation concerns [1] - Many retailers and manufacturers have placed orders in advance, suggesting that their earnings may align with expectations, and even if they exceed expectations, the extent of the outperformance is likely to be minimal [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - Recent data indicates that while U.S. tariffs have not yet permeated overall consumer prices, a weak labor market may lead the central bank to adopt a more dovish stance [1] - The market is hopeful that the Federal Reserve's meeting in Jackson Hole from August 21 to 23 will provide clearer insights into the economic outlook and the central bank's policy framework, with Chairman Jerome Powell expected to speak at the event [1]

Core Insights - The tariff measures implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump are significantly boosting international stock markets while potentially ending the dominance of the S&P 500 index globally, at least for the time being [1] - International stock markets are expected to outperform the U.S. stock market benchmark for the first time since 2022, and this is also the first occurrence in a bull market environment since 2009 [1] - Concerns regarding the impact of tariffs and trade uncertainties on U.S. corporate profit growth are the primary reasons for this shift [1] Performance Comparison - The MSCI All Country World Index (excluding the U.S.) has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 index, rising by 18% so far in 2025, while the S&P 500 index has only increased by 7.8% [1]

Core Insights - The average spot freight rates for container shipping from Asia to the U.S. West Coast and East Coast have plummeted by 58% and 46% respectively since June 1, indicating a significant decline in shipping demand despite the route being one of the most profitable for shipping companies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Overcapacity in shipping capacity, tariff changes, and geopolitical trade route adjustments are key factors contributing to the current freight rate collapse [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations has intensified market volatility [2]. - A brief increase in freight rates was observed from late May to early June due to shippers rushing to export during a temporary tariff suspension, but rates quickly fell as supply outstripped demand [3]. Group 2: Industry Expert Opinions - Experts predict that the severe overcapacity in global shipping will continue to impact the market, with shipping companies likely to implement sailing suspensions to maintain freight rates [4]. - DHL noted that the surge in shipping volume from Asia to North America has led to a decline in spot freight rates, as carriers rushed to increase capacity but are now facing an oversupply issue [4]. - Analysts expect freight rates to steadily decline in the second half of the year due to the influx of more vessels into the market and ongoing uncertainties related to tariff policies and global demand [5]. Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Implications - Traditionally, domestic supply chains in China sign contracts for production between March and June to prepare for the peak order season during the year-end shopping events [7]. - The ongoing decline in U.S.-China shipping rates may lower logistics costs for merchants, but it also indicates a weak demand for maritime freight during the critical inventory preparation phase, suggesting a contraction in overall cargo volume compared to previous years [8]. - Route adjustments, such as avoiding the Red Sea due to tensions in Yemen, are expected to absorb excess shipping capacity, providing some support for freight rates [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the diversion of shipping routes could absorb over 10% of container shipping capacity, maintaining a healthy utilization rate of 86%-87% [9]. - Despite a decline in exports from China to the U.S., shipments to other regions are reportedly increasing, indicating a potential shift in trade patterns [9].

亚洲制造业依然是支撑全球经济复苏主要动力 8月6日，中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，2025年7月份全球制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.3%， 较6月份下降0.2个百分点，结束连续2个月环比上升走势。 中国物流信息中心分析师武威对《证券日报》记者表示，综合指数变化来看，7月份全球制造业PMI较6 月份小幅下降，连续5个月运行在50%以下，意味着全球制造业继续弱势运行，且恢复力度较6月份稍有 减弱。 "展望后市，全球经济恢复仍面临较大的下行压力，美国对各国的关税政策演变仍存在不确定性；地缘 政治冲突扰动仍然存在；全球市场有效需求不足态势没有改变。"武威认为，基于上述不确定性因素影 响，各国需要通过不断地沟通和协商继续探寻新的合作模式和贸易规则，逐步减少不确定性因素影响来 增强本国乃至全球经济韧性。 亚洲、非洲制造业 在扩张区间 数据显示，7月份，亚洲制造业PMI为50.5%，较6月份小幅下降0.2个百分点，连续3个月在50%以上。武 威表示，亚洲制造业整体保持扩张态势，继续成为支撑全球经济复苏的主要动力。 武威分析称，亚洲开发银行最新报告预期46个"发展中亚洲"经济体2025年经济增速为4.7%，意味着亚 ...

经济学家：2026年进行的美墨加协定（USMCA）审查将使加拿大的贸易不确定性持续高企。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, and Dalian soybean meal futures adjusted and fluctuated. Dalian soybeans also adjusted and fluctuated [1]. - On July 25, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to trade uncertainties and concerns about export demand. The export sales data on Thursday was at the lower end of market estimates, and favorable weather in the US Midwest boosted soybean production prospects, putting pressure on soybean prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4224 yuan/ton during the day session, up 18 yuan (+0.43%), and at 4208 yuan/ton during the night session, down 15 yuan (-0.36%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3021 yuan/ton during the day session, down 20 yuan (-0.66%), and at 3007 yuan/ton during the night session, down 18 yuan (-0.60%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1021.75 cents/bushel, down 3.25 cents (-0.32%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 281.7 dollars/short ton, down 1.5 dollars (-0.53%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 43% soybean meal was 2900 - 2920 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan to unchanged compared to the previous day; in East China, it was 2830 - 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or unchanged; in South China, it was 2880 - 2940 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan to unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 8.15 million tons/day, compared with 20.15 million tons/day in the previous two trading days; the inventory was not available, compared with 90.83 million tons/week in the previous two trading days [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 25, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. Traders were trying to build positions before the August 1 tariff deadline set by the Trump administration, but were reluctant to significantly adjust their trading patterns due to ongoing Sino - US negotiations. The EU and the US may reach a trade framework agreement this weekend. Private exporters reported selling 142,500 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/26 season [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the report day [3].