出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 2024年，白酒行业进入深度调整！ "行业产销双线下滑、终端动销整体放缓、消费场景萎缩、消费信心不足，诸多产品价格不同程度倒 挂，"茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉2024年中曾对白酒行业发展趋势作出过这样的判断。 在这种背景下，渠道库存问题凸显，头部酒企也频频通过停货稳定价格体系。白酒企业分化进一步加 剧，头部酒企仍能维持稳健增长，中小酒企则开始面对压力。 从上市公司层面来看，2024年酒企收入增速大幅放缓，收入下滑酒企数量从上年的2家增至6家。酒鬼酒 和顺鑫农业已经连续大幅下滑两年。 从总体来看，2024年19家白酒公司毛利率中位数为73.16%，比上年下滑2个百分点。12家公司毛利率出 现下滑，占比达到63%。下滑最严重的是舍得酒业，下滑了近9个百分点。其次是酒鬼酒，下滑了近7个 百分点。 舍得酒业与酒鬼酒均为近几年次高端白酒的代表，二者2024年均经历了营收的大幅下滑。在这一轮白酒 行业深度调整中，次高端白酒受影响最严重，相关酒企渠道问题也开始暴露。 在公告中舍得酒业直言，"白酒产品销售承压，客户信心仍处于修复阶段，特别是次高端产品消费需求 仍待恢复 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment in 2024, characterized by declining production and sales, sluggish terminal movement, shrinking consumption scenarios, and insufficient consumer confidence, leading to price inversions for various products [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The liquor industry is facing dual declines in production and sales, with a notable slowdown in revenue growth for liquor companies in 2024 [1] - The number of liquor companies experiencing revenue declines increased from 2 to 6 compared to the previous year, with brands like Jiu Gui Jiu and Shun Xin Agriculture facing significant downturns for two consecutive years [1] Group 2: Sales Expenses - The total sales expenses for 19 listed liquor companies reached 45.87 billion yuan in the previous year, marking an 11% year-on-year increase, which outpaced revenue growth [2] - The median sales expense ratio rose from 16.26% to 19.1%, indicating a growing burden on companies [2] - Notably, Wu Liang Ye had the highest sales expenses at 10.692 billion yuan, followed by Gu Qing Gong Jiu and Kweichow Moutai [2] Group 3: Management Expenses - The total management expenses for listed liquor companies amounted to 22.85 billion yuan, slightly up from 22.66 billion yuan the previous year, with a median management expense ratio of 7.27% [3] - Eleven companies reported an increase in management expenses, while eight companies saw a decline [3] - Companies like Shanxi Fen Jiu, Shui Jing Fang, and Tian You De Jiu experienced management expense growth exceeding 10% [3] Group 4: Expense Ratios - Jiu Gui Jiu had the highest sales expense ratio at 42.94%, followed by Jin Zhong Zi Jiu at 31.84% and Gu Qing Gong Jiu at 26.22% [4] - Kweichow Moutai had the lowest sales expense ratio at 3.24%, indicating efficient cost management [4] - The management expense ratios for Tian You De Jiu, Jiu Gui Jiu, and Jin Zhong Zi Jiu exceeded 10%, while companies like Wu Liang Ye and Kweichow Moutai maintained lower ratios [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in 2024, characterized by declining production and sales, sluggish terminal movement, shrinking consumption scenarios, and insufficient consumer confidence, leading to price inversions for many products [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with inventory issues becoming prominent and leading major companies to halt shipments to stabilize pricing [1] - The number of liquor companies experiencing revenue declines has increased from 2 in 2023 to 6 in 2024, indicating a growing divide between leading and smaller enterprises [2] Group 2: Revenue Performance - In 2024, 19 listed liquor companies achieved a total revenue of 441.94 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.67% compared to 2023, but with a notable slowdown in revenue growth [2] - The median revenue growth rate for these companies dropped to 3.69% in 2024 from 18.04% in the previous year [2] - The top three companies with the highest revenue growth rates are Jinhuijiu (18.59%), Gujinggongjiu (16.41%), and Guizhou Moutai (15.66%) [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Guizhou Moutai generated revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 39.4% of the total revenue of listed liquor companies, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points [2] - Yanghe's revenue fell by 12.83% to 28.88 billion yuan, causing it to drop out of the 30 billion yuan club [4] - Jiugui Jiu's revenue declined nearly 50% in 2024 after a 30% drop in 2023, highlighting severe channel issues [4] Group 4: Revenue Rankings - The revenue rankings for 2024 show Guizhou Moutai leading with 174.14 billion yuan, followed by Wuliangye with 89.18 billion yuan, and Shanxi Fenjiu with 36.01 billion yuan [5] - Companies like Jiugui Jiu and Jinzongzi Jiu are experiencing significant revenue declines, with Jiugui Jiu's revenue dropping to 1.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.70% [5]

以下文章来源于征探财经 ，作者征探君 征探财经 . 资本市场的征探君。把征探财经设置为星标，不会错过每篇文章哦～～ 来源丨征探财经 作者丨五仁 4月28日，迎驾贡酒同时披露了2024年报和2025年第一季度报告。2024年，迎驾贡酒营收73.44亿元，同比增长8.46%；归属于上市公司股东的净 利润25.89亿元，同比增长13.45%。 然而，在2025年第一季度，迎驾贡酒的业绩出现下滑——收入20.47亿元，同比减少12.35%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润8.29亿元，同比减少 9.54%。 受此影响，4月29日，迎驾贡酒股价一度触及跌停，最终以44.41元/股收盘，跌幅8.98%。 过去几年里，通过发力中高档白酒市场，迎驾贡酒的营收和净利润保持了两位数增长，而2024年，迎驾贡酒营收增速降至个位，2025年第一季度业 绩更是出现下滑。新的一年，迎驾贡酒能否稳住增长呢？ 01 发力中高档白酒 在过去几年里，迎驾贡酒一直保持着两位数增长。2021年-2023年，迎驾贡酒分别收入45.77亿元、55.05亿元、67.2亿元，分别同比增长 32.58%、19.59%、22.07%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润分别为 ...

引发股价下跌的直接因素是业绩"变脸"。4月28日，迎驾贡酒发布2024年年报及2025年一季报，继2024 年收入增速降低之后，2025年一季度营收下滑12.35%，净利润下滑9.54%。 营收与净利润双降，创五年新低 前几年迎驾贡酒作为一匹"黑马"，业绩保持持续快速增长。2024年则开始大幅放缓，今年一季度营收 20.47亿元，同比下滑12.35%；归母净利润 8.29亿元，同比下滑9.54%。这是自 2020 年疫情以来，迎驾 贡酒首次出现一季度营收和净利润同步下滑，超出市场预期（此前券商预测普遍为个位数增长）。 4月29日，迎驾贡酒股价单日暴跌 8.98%，创下年内新低，如果算上4月28日两个交易日下跌11%。 2024 年迎驾贡酒中高档白酒营收增速已从往年 20% 以上降至 13.76%，2025 年一季度进开始下滑，其 "生态洞藏" 系列等高端产品在消费疲软环境下也受到影响。 前几年迎驾贡酒抓住省内消费升级窗口，通过洞藏新产品的铺货实现了短期快速增长，但是在100 元-300元这个价位带内同样面临激励竞争，安徽是白酒强省，排在迎驾贡酒前面的，还有口子窖与古井 贡酒两家地产酒强敌。在消费疲软比激烈竞争 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kuozi Jiao's 2024 financial report fell short of expectations, with total revenue of 6.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.89%, and a net profit of 1.655 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.83% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company had previously projected a revenue of 7.035 billion yuan for 2024, indicating a significant gap between expectations and actual performance [1] - The high-end product revenue remained stable at 5.681 billion yuan, while the mid-range product revenue declined by 10.35% to 68.41 million yuan, and low-end product revenue increased by 33.01% to 126 million yuan [2][3] Cost and Margin Insights - The gross margin for high-end products decreased by 0.22 percentage points, while mid-range and low-end products saw declines of 7.09 and 7.61 percentage points, respectively [2] - The overall gross margin for Kuozi Jiao dropped to 74.33%, reflecting a decrease of 0.59 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] Regional Performance - In Anhui province, revenue grew by 1.10% to 4.956 billion yuan, while costs increased by 1.23%, leading to a slight decrease in gross margin [3] - Outside Anhui, revenue fell by 2.88% to 920 million yuan, with costs rising by 9.90%, resulting in a more significant gross margin decline of 3.73 percentage points [3] Management and Strategic Spending - Kuozi Jiao's management expenses rose to approximately 140 million yuan, with consulting service fees reaching 30.0746 million yuan, indicating a focus on long-term strategic development despite current financial pressures [3][5] - The company has spent a total of 81 million yuan on consulting services over the past three years, which raises questions about the effectiveness of such expenditures [3] Competitive Landscape - Kuozi Jiao faces intense competition in the Anhui liquor market, with rivals like Gujing Gongjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu outperforming it in both revenue and growth rates [6] - In 2024, Gujing Gongjiu achieved revenue of 23.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, while Yingjia Gongjiu reported 7.344 billion yuan, an 8.46% increase [6] Future Outlook - Kuozi Jiao aimed for an 18% revenue growth in 2024 but has not met this target, and the gap with leading competitors has widened [7] - The company has not specified its operational goals for 2025 in its annual report, indicating uncertainty in its future direction [7]

【大河财立方 记者 史冰倩】20年是光阴的注脚，也是河南盛林商贸有限公司（以下简称河南盛林）与五粮液携手共赢的历程。 过去的20年里，河南盛林在酒类流通渠道上砥砺前行，完成从普通酒商向河南知名酒商进阶。如今，河南盛林已发展为五粮液的重要经销商，年销售五粮液系列产品规模超10亿元，为五粮液深 4月22日，河南盛林董事长涂建胜接受大河财立方记者采访时表示，有幸与五粮液携手共同成长，河南盛林实现了企业、品牌价值的双重提升。当前，白酒行业进入深度调整期，作为具有品牌力 行业变革催生机遇，五粮液龙头优势凸显 近年来，白酒行业进入深度调整期，竞争格局正加快重塑。 这场白酒行业"大浪淘沙"的变革，本质是从规模扩张向质量效益转型。白酒行业呈现"高端化、年轻化、国际化、健康化、数字化"趋势，强者恒强的马太效应愈发明显。 五粮液作为行业龙头，在行业转型期展现出强劲的发展潜力。以河南市场表现为例，五粮液在终端价格坚挺的同时，销量仍保持稳定，彰显了其强大的品牌与产品实力。 在涂建胜看来，在此轮行业调整中，五粮液具有高端市场巩固千元价格带优势、低度酒市场领跑行业扩容等增长机遇，但仍要持续加大文化输出与表达力度，让消费者从认识、认可五粮 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai reported a revenue of approximately 50.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 26.847 billion yuan for Q1, achieving year-on-year growth of 10.54% and 11.56% respectively, surpassing its annual growth target of around 9% [2][5]. Financial Performance - The revenue from Moutai liquor reached approximately 43.557 billion yuan in Q1, with a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [3]. - The revenue from the sauce-flavor liquor series was 7.022 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 18.3%, maintaining a consistent growth rate of 18% over the past two years [3][4]. - Direct sales channels generated 23.22 billion yuan in revenue, up 20.19% year-on-year, while wholesale channels saw a slight increase of 3.94% to 27.36 billion yuan [4]. Market Strategy - Guizhou Moutai is focusing on a brand development strategy termed "one body, two wings," aiming to create a product cluster centered around Moutai 1935, with Moutai Prince and Hanjiang as supporting products [3][4]. - The company plans to enhance the product structure of Moutai 1935 and has introduced new product specifications, including a 1.935L version [4]. Industry Context - The overall growth of the liquor industry is under pressure, with many companies adjusting their growth targets. Guizhou Moutai's 9% target is seen as a benchmark for the industry, reflecting a broader trend of rational consumption among consumers [5][6]. - Other major liquor companies have set their growth targets to align with macroeconomic indicators, indicating a cautious approach in the current market environment [6].

白酒的"百亿预备队"们出现了一些新变化。 近期白酒2024年报的持续披露，南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者注意到，迎驾贡酒增速明显， 白云边、珍酒李渡、口子窖和老白干酒，收入规模与前一年持平，舍得酒业则是"掉队"，"准百亿"企业 之间的排位变化，凸显了白酒行业的激烈竞争。 对于白酒企业而言，踏上百亿属于迈过了一线酒企的"门槛"，继去年今世缘与西凤酒经过3到4年布局冲 上百亿后，越来越多区域头部或准全国化企业为这一目标进行布局。 但业界认为，随着白酒行业持续处于深度调整，尤其是今年行业调低增速、持续加码去渠道库存的大环 境下，"准百亿"酒企要完成目标，估计还要延后几年。 白酒深度调整期，"准百亿"梯队座次生变 据南都湾财社记者了解，在白酒行业，百亿收入（包括营收或销售收入）被认为是白酒企业迈入头部梯 队的"门槛"，而在百亿收入之下，收入规模过了50亿元却没到100亿元的酒企，均被看作"百亿后备 军"。 从已披露或对外宣称2024年业绩的企业来看，白云边、迎驾贡酒、珍酒李渡、口子窖、舍得酒业、老白 干酒、水井坊以及仰韶酒业等，都处于"准百亿梯队"。其中，2024年度表现较为突出的是"徽酒老二"迎 驾贡酒，其创 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][12]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong performance with a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.41%, and a net profit of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year [6][11]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, representing a 10.38% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, which is a 12.78% growth year-on-year [6][11]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with projected revenues of 25.983 billion yuan, 28.685 billion yuan, and 31.927 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 6.163 billion yuan, 6.859 billion yuan, and 7.592 billion yuan for the same years [10][11]. Performance Analysis - The company maintained a robust market position as a leading player in the liquor industry, with significant growth in both product lines and market segments [8]. - The revenue from the main product lines in 2024 was 18.086 billion yuan for original liquor, 2.241 billion yuan for Gujing Gongjiu, and 2.538 billion yuan for Huanghelou, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 17.31%, 11.17%, and 15.08% [8]. - The company’s sales gross margin improved to 79.90%, with a net profit margin of 24.20%, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency [8][11]. Market and Channel Insights - The company’s revenue from different regions showed strong performance, with Central China, North China, South China, and international markets achieving year-on-year growth rates of 17.80%, 7.40%, 11.16%, and 2.87% respectively [8]. - The offline and online sales channels reported revenues of 22.806 billion yuan and 0.772 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.81% and 5.81% respectively [8]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a steady increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 10.44 yuan in 2024 to 14.36 yuan in 2027, reflecting the company's strong growth potential [10][11]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to decrease from 16.60 in 2024 to 11.92 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [10][11].