证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 15 日 [Table_Title] Q2 务实降速，市场化、全球化持续推进 ► 系列酒降速为长远发展，自营店体系建设再强化，出海战略持续落地。 [Table_Title2] 贵州茅台(600519) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 600519 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 1910.0/1245.83 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 17,925.82 | | 最新收盘价： | 1426.99 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 17,925.82 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 1,256.20 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 8 月 12 日，公司发布半年报。2025H1，公司实现营业收入 893.89 亿元，同比+9.10%，实现归母净利润 454.03 亿元，同比+8.89。 分析判断: ► Q2 务实降速，减少渠道资金占用，加大对酱香系列酒经销商的资金支持。 经 ...

Group 1 - Moutai Sauce Wine Company achieved its operational goals for the first half of 2025, emphasizing a shift from a production-driven market to a consumer-driven one [1] - The company aims to enhance its brand, channel, and product capabilities, positioning its sauce series as a key growth driver [1] - This strategic focus may strengthen market perception of the growth potential of its sauce series and could set a benchmark for competition in the liquor sector [1] Group 2 - Zhujiang Beer expects a net profit of approximately 575 million to 625 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% to 25% [2] - The company attributes this growth to steady high-quality development and continuous optimization of its product structure, leading to increased beer sales and revenue [2] - However, compared to Yanjing Beer, Zhujiang's revenue scale and growth rate are lower, raising concerns about its regional dependency and long-term growth potential [2] Group 3 - Xifeng Liquor's marketing strategy for the second half of 2025 focuses on deepening channel penetration and addressing market pain points [3] - The company plans to implement a "Golden Network Project" to enhance quality and efficiency, alongside fostering collaboration between manufacturers and distributors [3] - This strategy aligns with the overall trend in the liquor industry, emphasizing the importance of penetrating second and third-tier cities and county markets to maintain competitive positioning [3]

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai's marketing company held a market work meeting for the first half of 2025, focusing on the transformation from selling liquor to selling a lifestyle [1] - The company emphasized the importance of strong branding, single product focus, channel support, foundational strengthening, and service enhancement to achieve its business goals [1] - The company demonstrated resilience in the development of its sauce-flavored liquor series despite challenges [1] Summary by Categories Company Strategy - The marketing strategy is centered on the transition from selling liquor to promoting a lifestyle [1] - The company is following a marketing guideline termed "three transformations" to navigate through challenges [1] Operational Performance - The company successfully completed its predetermined business tasks in the first half of 2025 [1] - The collective effort of all employees contributed to the company's operational achievements [1] Market Position - The resilience of the sauce-flavored liquor series was highlighted, indicating a strong market presence [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the enduring value of Moutai, highlighting its financial attributes, collectible nature, and long-term growth certainty as key factors that contribute to its market resilience [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financial Attributes - Moutai has been referred to as "liquid gold," with a historical price equivalence to "10 grams of gold" in 2021, showcasing its financial appeal [1]. - The auction average price of Moutai old liquor is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.7% from 2020 to 2025, significantly outpacing gold's 5.3% growth during the same period [2]. Group 2: Scarcity and Production - Moutai's production capacity for 2024 is limited to 57,200 tons, representing only 0.6% of China's total liquor production, indicating a structural scarcity [2]. - The production process involves 30 steps and 165 stages, with a minimum aging period of five years, further constraining expansion opportunities [2]. Group 3: Cultural Significance - Moutai's unique aging process enhances its flavor over time, with prices for 30-year and 50-year variants reaching over 10,000 yuan, reflecting the quantifiable value of time [3]. - The company integrates cultural elements into its products, such as the "Scattered Flower Moutai" and "Singing Moutai," which combine traditional art with limited editions, enhancing their collectible appeal [3]. Group 4: Resilience and Growth - Moutai has demonstrated strong resilience, successfully pivoting its strategy during the 2013 "ban on official liquor" by targeting high-net-worth individuals and business consumers [4]. - In Q1 2025, Moutai reported revenue of 50.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 26.8 billion yuan, showcasing its ability to grow even during industry downturns [4]. Group 5: International Expansion - Moutai's overseas sales reached 5.189 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant increase of 19.27% year-on-year, indicating strong international demand [5]. - The company exported over 2,100 tons of liquor in 2024, with high-value Moutai sales exceeding 100 tons, reflecting a growing consumer base in emerging markets [5].

Financial Performance - Guizhou Moutai achieved a revenue growth of 15.71%, reaching 170.9 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 15.38% to 86.2 billion yuan, surpassing set targets [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities surged by 38.85% to 92.5 billion yuan, supporting total assets exceeding 298.9 billion yuan and maintaining a return on equity above 30% for eight consecutive years [1] - High-end liquor sales generated 145.9 billion yuan, growing by 15.28%, while the sauce-flavored liquor series surpassed 24.6 billion yuan with a growth rate of 19.65%, indicating a dual-driven growth model [1] Strategic Insights - The management addressed shareholder concerns regarding industry cycles by highlighting the "three-phase overlap" theory, which includes macroeconomic transitions, industry adjustments, and Moutai's brand positioning [2] - The company maintains strategic stability through three basic supports: the positive trend of the Chinese economy, brand value recognition, and product scarcity [2] Shareholder Returns - Moutai reported a record cash dividend of 64.7 billion yuan, with a total distribution rate exceeding 80% when including share buybacks [3] - The company initiated its first-ever share buyback, acquiring 2.0175 million shares at a maximum price of 1584.06 yuan per share, reflecting confidence in its development [3] - Moutai's dividend yield continues to lead among A-share blue-chip companies, showcasing its commitment to shareholder value [3] ESG Governance - Moutai has integrated "ecological priority" into its development strategy, achieving 100% compliance in wastewater discharge for five consecutive years and covering 85% of its green factory certification [6] - The company has increased its investment in rural revitalization by 22% and established a 1 billion yuan education fund, demonstrating a commitment to social responsibility [6] - Moutai's governance model has improved decision-making efficiency by 30% through a strategic-budget-assessment management system [7] Cultural Foundation - Moutai emphasizes its cultural roots, tracing back to its founding principles and integrating traditional values with modern concepts [8] - The company maintains a quality control network with 365 control points and over 2000 technical standards, ensuring a 100% product pass rate [8] Future Development - Moutai's management outlined a clear development blueprint focusing on market adaptation in the short term, internationalization and youth engagement in the mid-term, and building a shared ecosystem in the long term [9] - The company plans to increase R&D investment intensity to 3.5%, targeting advancements in microbial strain libraries and intelligent brewing equipment [9] - Moutai aims to become a world-class listed company, contributing to global supply chains and participating in international standard-setting [9]

Core Viewpoint - The price decline of Moutai 1935 reflects a shift in the industry from incremental competition to stock game, necessitating channel innovation, international expansion, and product innovation to maintain brand value and market position [8] Group 1: Price Decline and Market Impact - Moutai 1935's price collapse began post-Chinese New Year 2023 due to supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping from 1800 yuan to around 700 yuan, a decline of over 60% [2] - In 2024, Moutai's series liquor revenue grew by 19.65%, but the growth rate slowed compared to 2023's 26.12%, indicating weakening contribution from Moutai 1935 [2][3] - The price drop is eroding brand value as consumers perceive less differentiation between Moutai 1935 and lower-priced products [2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Industry Trends - Moutai's revenue growth rates from 2021 to 2024 were 11.71%, 16.53%, 18.04%, and are projected to drop to 15.66% in 2024, with net profit growth also slowing [3] - The white liquor industry is facing challenges, with production down 1.8% in 2024 and inventory up 12.5%, leading to increased competition from brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao [3] Group 3: Consumer Behavior Shift - High-end liquor sales dropped by 15% during the 2024 Spring Festival, while demand for lower-priced liquor surged, indicating a shift from brand loyalty to rational consumption [4] Group 4: Channel and International Expansion - Moutai is enhancing its "4+6" multi-channel system, with direct sales revenue reaching 748.43 billion yuan in 2024, though the proportion of direct sales has slightly decreased [6] - Moutai's international sales exceeded 2100 tons in 2024, with revenue surpassing 5 billion yuan, focusing on markets like Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore for growth [6] Group 5: Product Innovation - Moutai plans to launch new products in 2025, including zodiac-themed liquor and cultural products, aiming to attract younger consumers through content e-commerce and scenario-based marketing [7]

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai reported a strong Q1 2025 financial performance, achieving total revenue of 51.443 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.67%, and a net profit of 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.56% year-on-year [1][3] - The company continues to expand its overseas market, generating revenue of 1.119 billion yuan in Q1, reflecting a significant growth of 37.53% [1][9] - Moutai's performance is seen as a stabilizing force in the pressured liquor industry, showcasing its resilience as a market leader [1][3] Revenue and Profit Growth - Both revenue and profit exhibited double-digit growth, surpassing the 9% annual growth target, with Q1 revenue crossing the 50 billion yuan mark for the first time [3] - The first quarter's performance was bolstered by the Spring Festival consumption peak, where Moutai's brand influence played a crucial role in banquet and gifting scenarios [3] Product Performance - Moutai liquor, as the company's main revenue driver, generated approximately 43.557 billion yuan in Q1, marking a 9.7% increase [6] - The sauce-flavored liquor series, identified as a "second growth curve," achieved revenue of 7.022 billion yuan, with an 18.3% year-on-year growth, maintaining an 18% growth rate for two consecutive years [6][8] Strategic Initiatives - Moutai plans to enhance its product structure for the Moutai 1935 brand and aims to develop three major billion-yuan product lines [6][7] - The company is actively recruiting distributors and expanding its product offerings, including new packaging sizes and online sales initiatives [7] Channel Performance - Direct sales channels generated 23.22 billion yuan, a 20.19% increase, while wholesale channels saw a slight increase of 3.94% to 27.36 billion yuan [8] - The "i Moutai" platform achieved a revenue of 5.87 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.86% growth [8] International Expansion - Moutai's international market revenue reached 1.119 billion yuan, indicating a robust growth trajectory and enhanced global influence [9] - The company is committed to promoting Chinese culture internationally through various global events and exhibitions, aiming to integrate its products into international consumer lifestyles [9]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai reported a revenue of approximately 50.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 26.847 billion yuan for Q1, achieving year-on-year growth of 10.54% and 11.56% respectively, surpassing its annual growth target of around 9% [2][5]. Financial Performance - The revenue from Moutai liquor reached approximately 43.557 billion yuan in Q1, with a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [3]. - The revenue from the sauce-flavor liquor series was 7.022 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 18.3%, maintaining a consistent growth rate of 18% over the past two years [3][4]. - Direct sales channels generated 23.22 billion yuan in revenue, up 20.19% year-on-year, while wholesale channels saw a slight increase of 3.94% to 27.36 billion yuan [4]. Market Strategy - Guizhou Moutai is focusing on a brand development strategy termed "one body, two wings," aiming to create a product cluster centered around Moutai 1935, with Moutai Prince and Hanjiang as supporting products [3][4]. - The company plans to enhance the product structure of Moutai 1935 and has introduced new product specifications, including a 1.935L version [4]. Industry Context - The overall growth of the liquor industry is under pressure, with many companies adjusting their growth targets. Guizhou Moutai's 9% target is seen as a benchmark for the industry, reflecting a broader trend of rational consumption among consumers [5][6]. - Other major liquor companies have set their growth targets to align with macroeconomic indicators, indicating a cautious approach in the current market environment [6].

Group 1: Qingdao Beer - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 32.14 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.34 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.2 yuan per share, totaling approximately 3 billion yuan, which represents 69.07% of the net profit [1] Group 2: Moutai Market Research - Moutai completed its first quarter market research, indicating a stable growth in sales of Moutai and sauce-flavored liquor across various provinces [2] - Feedback from channel partners highlighted that the overall market performance showed steady growth, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual sales targets [2] - Moutai's strong market performance is expected to positively influence the high-end liquor sector and enhance overall market expectations [2] Group 3: Collaboration in Guizhou Liquor Industry - Executives from Moutai, Xijiu, and Guotai visited Guizhou Zhenjiu, emphasizing collaboration within the Guizhou liquor industry [3] - The visits aim to enhance industry interaction and promote the integration of liquor sales with lifestyle experiences [3] - This series of activities is anticipated to increase market attention on Zhenjiu and the entire Guizhou liquor sector, boosting investor confidence and promoting high-quality industry development [3]