2025 年 05 月 07 日 Q1 略超预期，期待渠道改革成效 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-05-06 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 129.49 | | 总市值（亿元） | 5026 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3882 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3881 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 107.69-164.05 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 2933.66 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 五粮液 沪深300 相关研究 1、《五粮液（000858）：营销执行 提升年，稳定压倒一切》2024-12- 19 2、《五粮液（000858）：浓香龙头 迎复兴，酒业大王向前看》2024- 12-06 3、《五粮液（000858）：发布中期 利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with strong sales collection [5] - The company is focusing on channel reform to enhance its market position [1][5] - The main brand is developing multiple product lines while creating flagship products in other liquor categories [6] - The company is expected to maintain its pricing strategy and restore channel confidence, leading to a recovery in brand value [8] Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 891.75 billion and 318.53 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7% and 5% [5] - Q1 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 369.40 billion and 148.60 billion yuan, both showing a year-on-year increase of 6% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 77%, with a slight year-on-year increase, while the net margin was 37%, showing a slight decline [5] - The company reported a significant increase in operating cash flow in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2970% [5] Product Development - In 2024, liquor revenue reached 831.27 billion yuan, with the main product line contributing 678.75 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.07% increase [6] - The company launched new products in the 45-degree and 68-degree categories, expanding its product matrix [6] - The average price of the main products increased slightly, contributing to overall revenue growth [6] Regional Performance - Revenue from the Eastern, Southern, and Northern regions in 2024 was 312.90 billion, 393.36 billion, and 125.01 billion yuan, respectively, with the Eastern and Southern regions showing stable growth [7] - The number of distributors for the main brand and its sub-brands increased significantly, indicating a successful expansion strategy [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have EPS of 8.67, 9.26, and 10.00 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 14, and 13 times [8][10]

在年报中五粮液方面解释称，白酒产业处于深度调整期，产业波动加大、存量竞争加剧。 2024年第一季度和第二季度，五粮液营业收入同比增长11.86%和10.08%，保持着双位数的增长。然而，第三季度、第四季度，五粮液营业收入仅增长 1.39%、2.53%，从而拖累了全年营收增幅。值得注意的是，2024年前三季度，五粮液净利润达249.31亿元，同比增长9.19%。第四季度，五粮液营业收入虽 在增长，但净利润却下降了6.17%，为69.22亿元。 | | | | benefit ( Print . Intent lieves | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024 年 | 2023 年 | 本年比上年增减 | 2022年 | | 营业收入(元) | 89,175,178,322,70 | 83, 272, 067, 317, 19 | 7.09% | 73,968, 640, 704, 54 | | 归属于上市公司股东的 净利润(元) | 31,853, 172, 533. 98 | 30, 210, 585, 269, 30 | 5.44% | 26, ...

【大河财立方 记者 史冰倩】20年是光阴的注脚，也是河南盛林商贸有限公司（以下简称河南盛林）与五粮液携手共赢的历程。 过去的20年里，河南盛林在酒类流通渠道上砥砺前行，完成从普通酒商向河南知名酒商进阶。如今，河南盛林已发展为五粮液的重要经销商，年销售五粮液系列产品规模超10亿元，为五粮液深 4月22日，河南盛林董事长涂建胜接受大河财立方记者采访时表示，有幸与五粮液携手共同成长，河南盛林实现了企业、品牌价值的双重提升。当前，白酒行业进入深度调整期，作为具有品牌力 行业变革催生机遇，五粮液龙头优势凸显 近年来，白酒行业进入深度调整期，竞争格局正加快重塑。 这场白酒行业"大浪淘沙"的变革，本质是从规模扩张向质量效益转型。白酒行业呈现"高端化、年轻化、国际化、健康化、数字化"趋势，强者恒强的马太效应愈发明显。 五粮液作为行业龙头，在行业转型期展现出强劲的发展潜力。以河南市场表现为例，五粮液在终端价格坚挺的同时，销量仍保持稳定，彰显了其强大的品牌与产品实力。 在涂建胜看来，在此轮行业调整中，五粮液具有高端市场巩固千元价格带优势、低度酒市场领跑行业扩容等增长机遇，但仍要持续加大文化输出与表达力度，让消费者从认识、认可五粮 ...

4月25日晚间，五粮液发布了2024年年报。数据显示，2024年，五粮液实现营业收入891.75亿元，同比 增长7.09%；归母净利润318.53亿元，同比增长5.44%；经营活动产生的现金流量净额339.4亿元，下降 了18.69%。 值得注意的是，五粮液2024年的营收增速、净利润增速和扣非后归母净利润增速，均跌到了个位数。 五粮液称，在五粮液产品方面，公司去年紧扣"抓动销、稳价格、提费效、转作风"方针，持续提升五粮 液品牌市场地位。在五粮浓香产品方面，2024年，五粮浓香公司坚持"三性一度""三个聚焦"原则，打造 五粮春、五粮醇、五粮特头曲、尖庄大单品，稳步推进各项工作。 在品牌营销方面，2024年，五粮液深度参与央视春晚秋晚、巴黎奥运会等重大活动，联合打造和美之夜 特别晚会；与湖南卫视合作《中餐厅》《歌手》等高热度节目；持续占位博鳌亚洲论坛、APEC等高端 平台活动。 在发布年报的同日，五粮液还发布了2025年第一季度财报：实现营收369.4亿元，同比增长6.05%；归母 净利润为148.6亿元，同比增长5.8%。 五粮液称，2025年主要发展目标是，巩固和增强稳健发展态势，推动品牌价值和市场份额双提 ...

每日晨报 智: H J 2025年4月28日 中国一季度规模以上工业企业利润由降转增, 同比增长 0.8% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:加紧加快,加大加力--4 月政治局会议解读。4 月政治局会议在一季 度经济开门红和"外部冲击影响加大"的背景下召开,我们认为会议给出以下 三大重要信号:第一,对于经济形势有准确判断,将美国大肆加征关税等一系 列行为定义成"国际经贸斗争",要做好中长期战略筹划,保持国内储备政策 的弹性,"攻守兼备"不轻易亮出全部底牌;第二,强化底线思维,着力稳就 业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，其中稳就业为四稳之首,超常规逆周期政策的 出台和实施将以就业目标为主要出发点;第三,加紧加快既定政策的落实落地, 如加快政府债券发行使用,为下半年政策加码腾出空间;加大加力重点领域的 政策实施力度,重点是科技、消费和外贸三个方向,并据形势变化及时推出增 量储备政策。 宏观:利润转正可持续吗?——2025年1-3 月工业企业利润分析。展望未来, ● 一季度工业企业利润全面回升取得良好开门红,强有力的政策效果为全年经济 ...

Core Insights - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year, marking ten consecutive years of steady growth in revenue and net profit [1] - The company achieved a record high gross margin of over 77% in 2024, reflecting its resilience in a challenging industry environment [5] - Wuliangye's marketing strategy for 2025 focuses on enhancing brand value and market share, with significant restructuring of its marketing system and channel innovations [9] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Wuliangye achieved a revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, a 6.05% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [2] - For 2024, the main brand generated revenue of 67.875 billion yuan, an 8.07% increase, while the Wuliang fragrant series and other products contributed 15.251 billion yuan, up 11.79% [3] - The direct sales channel saw a revenue increase of 12.89%, reaching 34.389 billion yuan, with its share of total revenue exceeding 41% [3] Channel Development - Wuliangye expanded its distribution network significantly, adding 16,000 core terminals and enhancing its direct sales channel with new stores and upgraded outlets [4] - The company’s revenue from traditional channels grew by nearly 6%, with the eastern and southern regions being the main contributors [3] Strategic Initiatives - Wuliangye emphasized a balanced approach to volume and price, launching new products and enhancing its product matrix to maintain its leading position in the premium price segment [6] - The company’s marketing activities included participation in major events and collaborations with popular media, significantly increasing brand exposure [7] Management and Governance - Wuliangye's management team is undergoing a youth-oriented transformation, with new appointments aimed at enhancing cohesion and operational effectiveness [8] - The company plans to implement a deep transformation of its sales system to improve decision-making efficiency and market responsiveness [9] Shareholder Returns - Wuliangye announced a record dividend of 22.3 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio increasing to 70%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [11] - The company’s major shareholder plans to increase its stake by investing an additional 500 million to 1 billion yuan, signaling confidence in Wuliangye's investment value [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, but leading companies like Wuliangye continue to show robust performance with record revenue and net profit growth, marking ten consecutive years of such growth [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Wuliangye achieved operating revenue of 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, growing by 6.05%, and a net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8% [4]. - Wuliangye's revenue and net profit have consistently grown for ten years, outperforming the industry average during a period of declining production in the sector [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Wuliangye is focusing on a strategic approach of "grasping sales, stabilizing prices, improving efficiency, and changing work styles" to adapt to industry changes [3][8]. - The company has introduced innovative products, including new high-end offerings, to enhance its product structure and cater to emerging consumer segments [6][11]. Brand and Marketing - In 2024, Wuliangye's brand exposure exceeded 20 billion views through participation in major events like the CCTV Spring Festival Gala [7]. - The company is optimizing its distribution channels, increasing the number of distributors by 82 to a total of 2,652, and expanding its direct sales channels significantly [7][10]. Shareholder Returns - Wuliangye has implemented a "dividend + buyback" strategy, announcing a total dividend of 22.3 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of 70%, marking a significant increase from previous years [12][13]. - The company has a history of substantial cash dividends, totaling over 104.1 billion yuan since its IPO, which is 28 times its initial fundraising amount [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye reported its 2024 annual and 2025 Q1 financial results, showing a steady growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a robust operational strategy despite a competitive market environment [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Wuliangye achieved a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.05% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, increasing by 5.8% [1][6] - The gross profit margin for liquor products exceeded 82% in 2024, marking a continuous increase since 2016, with Wuliangye's product gross margin reaching 87% [1][3] Product and Market Strategy - Wuliangye optimized its product system in 2024, focusing on a balanced pricing strategy and launching new products to meet diverse consumer needs [3] - The company reported a significant increase in sales volume, with liquor products achieving a total sales volume of 162,000 tons and an average price of approximately 513,200 yuan per ton [3] - The revenue from series liquor products reached 15.251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.79% [3] Channel Development - Wuliangye emphasized enhancing its distribution channels, achieving a 12.89% year-on-year growth in direct sales channels, which now account for about 40% of total revenue [4] - The company added 16,000 core terminal points and 138 new specialty stores, optimizing its traditional channel structure [4] Contract Liabilities and Cash Flow - As of the end of 2024, Wuliangye's contract liabilities reached 11.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.3%, indicating strong market confidence [5][7] - The company reported a cash flow of 138.55 billion yuan and a significant increase in contract liabilities, both reaching historical highs [7] Shareholder Returns - Wuliangye announced a total cash dividend of 22.301 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 70%, the highest in recent years [7]