白酒行业深度调整期

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茅台第一季度业绩增速超10%:茅台酒“压舱”,系列酒拉动
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-04-30 00:32
业绩维持在10%左右增长,这是贵州茅台今年第一季度交出的"成绩单"。 4月29日下午,贵州茅台发布了今年第一季报,该公司营收约506亿元,归母净利润268.47亿元,同比分 别增加10.54%和11.56%,继续创下当季度数据新高。 南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者注意到,此前贵州茅台曾在年报中提出,今年的营业总收入较 上年度增长9%左右,从一季报增幅来看,贵州茅台保持在目标增幅之上。 10%或是今年白酒行业的"增长极限" 南都湾财社记者注意到,对比过去动辄15%以上的业绩增速,今年贵州茅台的业绩增长出现收缩的迹 象,并且总营收增长目标定在9%左右,这与行业仍处于深度调整期有关。 酱香系列酒发挥"第二曲线"作用 具体业务管线表现方面,南都湾财社记者留意到,作为贵州茅台业绩"压舱石"的茅台酒仍然保持增长, 第一季度实现收入约435.57亿元,同比增加9.7%。值得注意的是,今年第一季度以及4月份,茅台酒出 现价格波动情况,不过近期产品价格回归稳定,南都湾财社产品《湾区酒价》最新一期数据显示,飞天 茅台近期在广州、深圳的零售均价约2600元。 同样的,作为业绩"第二曲线"的酱香系列酒增幅亮眼,该产品业务在第一 ...
古井贡酒(000596):2024年报及2025年一季报点评:业绩保持高增,一季度表现稳健
Guohai Securities· 2025-04-29 08:34
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][12]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong performance with a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.41%, and a net profit of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year [6][11]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, representing a 10.38% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, which is a 12.78% growth year-on-year [6][11]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with projected revenues of 25.983 billion yuan, 28.685 billion yuan, and 31.927 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 6.163 billion yuan, 6.859 billion yuan, and 7.592 billion yuan for the same years [10][11]. Performance Analysis - The company maintained a robust market position as a leading player in the liquor industry, with significant growth in both product lines and market segments [8]. - The revenue from the main product lines in 2024 was 18.086 billion yuan for original liquor, 2.241 billion yuan for Gujing Gongjiu, and 2.538 billion yuan for Huanghelou, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 17.31%, 11.17%, and 15.08% [8]. - The company’s sales gross margin improved to 79.90%, with a net profit margin of 24.20%, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency [8][11]. Market and Channel Insights - The company’s revenue from different regions showed strong performance, with Central China, North China, South China, and international markets achieving year-on-year growth rates of 17.80%, 7.40%, 11.16%, and 2.87% respectively [8]. - The offline and online sales channels reported revenues of 22.806 billion yuan and 0.772 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.81% and 5.81% respectively [8]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a steady increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 10.44 yuan in 2024 to 14.36 yuan in 2027, reflecting the company's strong growth potential [10][11]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to decrease from 16.60 in 2024 to 11.92 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [10][11].