【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间2月13日凌晨，国际贵金属期货大幅下跌，COMEX黄金期货跌3.08%报4941.4美元/ 盎司，COMEX白银期货跌10.62%报75.01美元/盎司。现货黄金一度跌超4%，现货白银一度跌超11%，尾盘跌幅稍微收 窄。 分析人士称，黄金大跌没有明确催化因素，算法交易员的卖盘似乎放大了跌势；但对于白银，随着市场避险需求减 弱，工业金属需求预期下调，白银作为工业属性更强的贵金属跌幅尤为显著。 据芝加哥商品交易所发布，银价2025年全年大涨300%，进入2026年仅一周多的时间又经历瀑布式腰斩；1月30日， COMEX白银期货一度暴跌35%，创历史最大单日跌幅，并在其后的几个交易日波动加剧、脉冲式下挫。在白银这轮 史诗级行情里，大量投资者参与其中，有人大幅盈利，也有人背负巨大亏损，在波澜壮阔的涨势背后，既有新型工业 需求爆发式增长导致的供不足需，也有金银比的修复逻辑。 值得关注的是，白银史上历次重大行情的见顶，无一例外都伴随着交易所的连续上调保证金等历史关键指标。而本轮 白银行情中，为了抑制过度投机，芝加哥商品交易所也不断加强监管措施，尤其在2026年1月28日，其将白银保证金 收取 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - BNP Paribas predicts gold prices may rise to $6000 per ounce by year-end due to ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, with a rebound in the gold-silver ratio expected [1] - Wells Fargo views recent gold price corrections as healthy, raising their 2026 gold price target to between $6100 and $6300 per ounce, indicating over 20% upside potential driven by geopolitical risks and strong central bank demand [1] - JPMorgan suggests that if private sector demand continues to grow, gold prices could reach approximately $8000 per ounce by the end of the decade, contingent on a significant increase in investment allocation to gold [1] Group 2: Silver Market Outlook - The Silver Institute forecasts that the silver market will experience a supply gap for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with a projected shortfall of 67 million ounces, driven by physical supply shortages and geopolitical uncertainties [2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - TD Securities reports that foreign buyers' share of U.S. Treasury auctions has increased, alleviating concerns about the loss of the safe-haven status and the impact of large deficits on buyer interest [3] - The report indicates that the share of foreign and international accounts in January reached about 19%, the highest in three years, suggesting a strong ongoing interest in U.S. Treasuries despite market rumors of a sell-off [3] Group 4: UK Government Bonds - Dutch Bank analysts highlight that political instability in the UK may lead investors to demand a risk premium on UK government bonds, despite a slight decrease in yields following recent political reassurances [4] Group 5: Euro Strength and ECB Response - Deutsche Bank notes that the recent strengthening of the euro is driven by external factors beyond the European Central Bank's control, complicating the ECB's ability to respond effectively [5] Group 6: AI and Media Industry Developments - CITIC Securities emphasizes the potential of ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 video model to revolutionize the film industry, particularly in the AI comic drama sector, which is less susceptible to replacement by large models [6] - The report suggests that the demand for tokens in AI comic production is significant, with each production potentially consuming over 100 million tokens, indicating a strategic opportunity for model companies [6] Group 7: Banking Sector Trends - CICC anticipates a slowdown in the expansion of bank balance sheets, aligning with the central bank's focus on quality and efficiency rather than simple quantitative easing [7] Group 8: Photovoltaic Industry Insights - CITIC Securities predicts an acceleration in the "anti-involution" trend within the photovoltaic battery component industry, driven by rising silver prices and a shift towards high-efficiency products [8] Group 9: Gold Investment Trends - Tianfeng Securities forecasts that gold bar and coin consumption in China will surpass jewelry consumption for the first time in 2025, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [9]

Core Viewpoint - International silver prices have stabilized after significant fluctuations, but supply tightness in the Chinese market persists, driven by investment and industrial demand depleting inventories [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of February 10, international spot silver prices are fluctuating around $80 per ounce, with the gold-silver ratio stabilizing near 61 times [1][2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's near-month silver contract premium has surged to record levels, indicating strong demand for immediate delivery silver [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The extreme spot premium is driven by a supply crisis and depletion of deliverable materials, with silver inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Gold Exchange at their lowest levels in over a decade [3]. - Analysts believe the tight supply situation is unlikely to ease in the short term unless smelters can significantly increase production during the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday, which is traditionally a low production season [3]. Group 3: Investment and Industrial Demand - Current market demand is fueled by two main drivers: sustained high physical investment demand and concentrated procurement in industrial sectors such as solar energy [4]. - In Shenzhen, the largest gold and jewelry wholesale market in China, demand for silver investment bars remains strong, with sellers quickly finding buyers willing to pay premiums [5]. - Industrial demand is also a significant factor, as Chinese solar manufacturers require large amounts of silver for photovoltaic panel production, leading to increased purchasing ahead of the April 1 export tax rebate policy expiration [7].

2026年以来，国际贵金属价格波动剧烈。1月29日，COMEX黄金期货价格一度升至5626.8美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货价格一度升至121.785美元/盎司，均创出历史最高纪录。然而，在创下历史新高后，市场突然遭遇猛烈 抛售。1月30日，COMEX黄金期货价格盘中跌幅超12%，创1980年以来最大单日跌幅；COMEX白银期货价格 盘中跌幅超35%，创历史最大单日跌幅。进入2月，贵金属价格保持高波动态势。市场人士认为，本轮贵金属价 格调整更偏向于短期交易拥挤度过高后的去杠杆过程，而非基本面趋势的系统性反转。对市场参与者而言，在 高波动常态化的市场环境中，对节奏与结构性机会的把握，将比单边趋势判断更为重要。 2025年，全球贵金属市场在宏观不确定性与流动性环境共同作用下持续走强，黄金与白银价格先后刷新历史高 位。上半年，美元信用边际收缩、地缘政治摩擦反复、美联储政策转向预期升温等因素推动避险与配置型资金 持续流入贵金属市场。下半年，随着全球经济"软着陆"预期逐步形成，白银在工业属性与金融属性共振下实现 补涨，金银比自高位区间回落，贵金属价格整体维持高斜率上行态势。2025年年末及2026年年初，贵金属市场 ...

金瑞期货：贵金属价格尚未完成底部再平衡，短期或延续高波动状态 转自：新华财经 金瑞期货最新早报观点认为，市场情绪回暖，叠加地缘方面仍保持紧张，金银价格出现显著反弹。短期 看，金银价格尚未完成底部再平衡，金银或延续高波动状态，走势上不排除出现再次探底与反复拉锯。 但中长期看，全球高债务、地缘风险及白银结构性短缺等核心支撑未变，金银调整后仍具备上行基础。 近期需重点关注沃什政策主张及非农数据。 五矿期货表示，当前行情维持高位震荡，市场普遍定价美联储6月降息预期，为金价提供了核心基本面 支撑；在美国就业数据表现偏弱的背景下，博斯蒂克表态称，在高通胀持续的环境下，需等到4-5月数 据才能给出更明确的政策信号，并暗示美联储可能需要更多依托非官方数据来评估经济形势。同时，前 期集中抛售也为场外观望资金提供了逢低布局的机会，金价中期趋势仍偏向震荡上行。 申银万国期货表示，此前贵金属巨震，主要受美联储主席提名和资金踩踏两方面因素影响。1月30日特 朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什为下一任联储主席，沃什的传统鹰派立场以及缩表主张，导致降息预期降温， 同时市场对美联储独立性担忧缓解，带动美元指数明显回升。1月以来贵金属快速上涨，波动率已处 ...

在过去8个月里，白银上演了一场足以载入史册的疯狂行情：涨幅一度高达179%，价格一度突破100美元/盎司大关。面对这种令人眩晕的走势，市场往 往习惯于用"涨多了就是风险"这种直觉去解释顶部。 近期白银走出"过山车"走势，在1月29日触及约121.8美元/盎司的历史新高后急转直下，于1月31日一度重挫超35%至73美元附近，创有记录以来最大单 日跌幅，随后剧烈震荡反弹又转跌，至2月5日盘中再度大跌超13%。在短短几天内，银价从高点最深回撤幅度约40%，年内涨幅几乎被完全抹平，市场 波动极为剧烈。 2月1日，财通证券徐陈翼团队的最新研报复盘指出，白银的历史大顶从来不是市场自然交易出来的，而是被"强制刹车"的结果。白银的大顶，本质上是 一场杠杆的出清过程。当前的白银市场，波动率一度达到历史极值（1800%+），交易所正在疯狂上调保证金（月内5连加），且银油比价严重失真（突 破1.8）。 对于投资者而言，当下的核心风险不在于基本面供需，而在于交易所的规则变更和极端波动率的回归。 历史正在押着韵脚，白银市场已经进入了最危 险的博弈阶段。 波动率警报：从常态到失控的1800% 如果说价格上涨是狂热的表象，那么波动率就是衡 ...

2月5日，A股三大指数低开，全天震荡调整。截至收盘，沪指跌0.64%，深证成指跌1.44%，创业板指跌1.55%。全市成 交额2.19万亿，超3700只个股下跌。 金银，再次跳水！ 板块方面，午后证券、银行等持续拉升，多股上涨；旅游酒店概念表现活跃，多股大涨；大消费方向逆势走强，影 视、食品饮料、医美等涨幅居前。电网设备股持续走弱，光伏、有色金属、算力硬件等跌幅居前。 值得注意的是，今日贵金属板块再度大跌，截至收盘，湖南白银（002716.SZ）、白银有色（601212.SH）封跌停，， 晓程科技（300139.SZ）跌超10%，四川黄金（001337.SZ）、湖南黄金（002155.SZ）、豫光金铅（600531.SH）、招金 黄金（000506.SZ）等跌幅靠前。 现货白银价格直线大跳水。盘中，现货白银跌幅一度超过16%，现货黄金跌幅一度超过3%。 国投白银LOF（161226.SZ）开盘后再度封于跌停板，报3.443元。这已是该基金自2月2日复牌以来，连续第四个交易日 开盘即跌停。截至收盘，跌停板上的封单仍超过780万手，封单金额超27亿元。与此同时，其二级市场价格相较基金净 值的溢价率已收窄至37.1 ...

Group 1: Silver Market Overview - The silver market has experienced a significant bull run since 2025, with international spot silver prices increasing from under $30 per ounce to a peak of over $83 per ounce, marking an annual increase of over 180%, which outperformed gold's approximately 60% rise [1][5] - As of January 14, 2026, silver's global market capitalization surpassed $5 trillion for the first time, making it the second-largest asset globally after gold [1] - The volatility of silver, often referred to as "poor man's gold," has made it susceptible to rapid price fluctuations, posing risks for ordinary investors [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Silver Prices - The Federal Reserve's resumption of a loose monetary policy, including interest rate cuts and increased asset purchases, has been a core driver supporting silver's performance [5] - Concerns over the U.S. dollar's credibility, exacerbated by rising fiscal deficits and increased political interference in Federal Reserve decisions, have led to a depreciation cycle for the dollar, benefiting silver as an alternative asset [6] - Geopolitical tensions and conflicts in regions like Venezuela and Iran have heightened demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets [6] Group 3: Speculative Behavior and Market Dynamics - Speculative trading has significantly contributed to the surge in silver prices, driven by retail investors influenced by social media and market sentiment [7] - Reports of potential delivery defaults on the COMEX have amplified market speculation, with delivery requests far exceeding historical norms [7][8] - The rapid price increase has led to a surge in trading activity, with funds like the Guotai Silver LOF experiencing extreme price volatility and multiple trading halts [5] Group 4: Industrial Demand and Supply Constraints - Industrial demand for silver, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, has been robust, with a projected 4% increase in industrial silver demand in 2024 [11] - However, the soaring silver prices have begun to strain the manufacturing sector, with companies like LONGi Green Energy forecasting significant losses due to rising silver costs [12] - The global silver market has faced a supply shortage for five consecutive years, with a projected shortfall of approximately 0.36 million tons in 2025 [14] Group 5: Future Outlook and Price Volatility - Analysts predict that while silver prices may continue to rise due to ongoing macroeconomic factors, the volatility is expected to increase significantly [18] - The market is currently in a state of high valuation, with both silver and gold potentially overvalued, leading to increased asset price fluctuations [17][18] - The focus will shift to inventory data and industrial demand indicators, as the high silver prices may lead to a decline in industrial demand, impacting future price support [17]

贵金属价格在2025年末的大幅上涨趋势延续至2026年初，黄金价格已突破每盎司4500美元，白银价格突 破每盎司80美元，铂金更是达到2007年以来的首次纪录高位。钯金价格同样出现大幅反弹，但距离纪录 高位仍有相当距离。 图1：贵金属价格飞涨幅度几无先例 从价格回报来看，金属自2024年底至今的表现远超其他资产类别。截至1月6日，黄金上涨65%，钯金上 涨95%，铂金上涨150%，白银涨幅高达170%。其中黄金表现相对偏弱，可能与其涨幅在2000年至2024年 底间就已遥遥领先于其他金属有关。在2020年代的前五年里，黄金上涨73%，白银上涨63%，而铂金和 钯金则分别下跌8%和52%。在一定程度上，白银、铂金和钯金近期的强势表现，或反映了其在长期落后 于黄金之后的奋起直追。 那么，投资者应如何看待这些贵金属之间的相对价值？整个贵金属板块的前景又将如何？ 贵金属相对价值分析：白银与黄金 如今，要再坚持"白银相对黄金价格偏低"的观点，恐怕难有说服力。金银比（即一盎司黄金可兑换的白 银盎司数）已降至2013年以来的最低水平。 图2：最近几个月白银相对黄金显著走强 白银的部分涨幅，或反映了其相较于黄金的高β属性。白 ...

格隆汇2月4日｜申银万国中指出，此次贵金属巨震主要受两方面因素影响：一是因为1月30日特朗普宣 布提名凯文·沃什为下一任联储主席，沃什的传统鹰派立场，带动美元指数明显回升，市场对美联储独 立性担忧有所缓解。二是此前贵金属短期内快速上涨，尤其是白银由于受到工业属性和金融属性的双重 支撑，涨幅巨大，金银比大幅下降，白银波动率也上行至高位。此次沃什获提名引发获利资金了结，导 致杠杆资金踩踏式出逃，进一步放大市场波动。从长期角度来看，黄金上行的支撑因素并未发生逆转， 待市场充分调整后，预计黄金仍将重回稳步上行通道。短期内市场波动加剧，尽管白银已经大幅调整但 金银比仍处低位，白银价格预计仍然承压，建议暂时保持观望。 ...