Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak balance with supply and demand, and the cost still provides support. Next week, steel prices may adjust within a narrow range, and the pattern of repeated ups and downs will continue. The market should be treated as weakly volatile, and patiently wait for opportunities for a bottom - rebound [29]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - Market sentiment was average, with the game between long - and short - term factors and fundamentals. This week, steel prices showed a volatile downward trend, and the price center of gravity shifted down compared with last week. The national average price of rebar decreased by 8 yuan/ton, and the average price of high - speed wire decreased by 9 yuan/ton. Except for a slight increase in the Northeast region, all other regions declined slightly, with a decline ranging from 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2][3] 2. Macro and Industrial News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was released, supporting the construction of world - class city clusters in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports. From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 331.59 billion yuan, and the total issuance of local government bonds was 670.36 billion yuan. From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. In mid - August 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises increased, and the estimated national daily output of steel also increased. As of the week of August 27, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines decreased, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal increased. Recently, many small and medium - sized banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit interest rates [5][6] 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 94,400 tons, lower than last week's 94,800 tons. The demand for steel in the off - season continued to be weak, downstream terminals purchased on demand, and merchants' willingness to replenish inventory was not strong. The short - term market was dominated by a wait - and - see attitude [9] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The current steel demand is at the switching point between the off - season and peak season. Short - term demand is still weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the medium - term. The increase in construction steel output is expected to slow down. The steel market is in a weak balance, and the cost still provides support. The steel price may adjust within a narrow range next week. From the perspective of the disk, most black commodities closed down, and the iron ore main contract rose slightly. The rebar main contract 2601 showed a downward trend, with the center of gravity shifting down. It should be treated as weakly volatile, waiting for a bottom - rebound opportunity. Investment strategies include mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, volume - screw spread, and steel profit, and a wide - straddle consolidation for option strategies [29]

Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 25, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures rebounded significantly, but the gains narrowed. The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil generally increased. The steel futures market may show an oscillating rebound in the future, but its strength is weaker than that of the stock index. It needs to wait for the stock index to reach its peak to change the current lukewarm market pattern. [7][9][11] - The coking coal market ended its nearly one-and-a-half-year downward trend in July 2025, with both futures and spot prices rebounding from the bottom. There may still be a phased upward trend in August, but price increases may be limited. [13] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook for the Future 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On August 25, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets generally increased. The prices of rebar in Shanghai, Nanjing and other cities rose by 30 yuan/ton, and the prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Shenyang and other cities rose by 30 - 40 yuan/ton. [9] - The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2510 contracts showed a differentiated trend. The J and K values turned up, while the D value continued to decline. The daily MACD green bars of the rebar 2510 contract narrowed for two consecutive trading days, and the daily MACD green bars of the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract began to narrow. [9] 1.2 Outlook for the Future - News: Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in September; the coal and coke market turned up significantly due to expectations of strengthened safety inspections after the Fujian coal mine accident. [10][11] - Fundamentals: The weekly output of the five major steel products has increased for four consecutive weeks, the factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the social inventory has increased for six consecutive weeks to a new high since mid-May. The weekly apparent demand has increased after six consecutive weeks of decline. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate remains at a relatively high level, and the daily average pig iron output remains above 2.4 million tons per day. [11] - Financial Market: The domestic A-share market continued to rise, which may attract some futures market funds to the stock market, but also help boost the prices of coal, coke, steel, and ore commodities. [11] 2. Industry News - National Energy Administration: As of the end of July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.67 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. [12] - China Iron and Steel Association: In mid-August, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.43 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 400,000 tons. [12] - Company Performance: New Steel Co., Ltd. achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 111 million yuan in the first half of 2025, turning a profit year-on-year; Xinji Energy Co., Ltd. had a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 920 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.72%. [12] - Coking Coal Market: In July 2025, the coking coal market ended its downward trend, and the market showed a pattern of "three leading rises, one decline, and one stability". There may still be a phased upward trend in August, but price increases may be limited. [13] - Customs Data: In July 2025, China's coal imports increased by 7.8% month-on-month to 35.609 million tons. [14] - US Anti-dumping Ruling: The US Department of Commerce ruled that if the current anti-dumping measures against carbon steel alloy wire rods imported from China are cancelled, the dumping margin of Chinese products will reach 110.25%. [14] - Steel Production Data: In July 2025, the global crude steel output was 150 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%; Japan's crude steel output was 6.918 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.1%. [14] - VLCC Freight: As of August 24, 2025, the VLCC TCE increased by 31.7% week-on-week to $45,800 per day. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. [14] 3. Data Overview - The report provides charts on the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output of five major steel products, factory and social inventories, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, daily average pig iron output, and apparent consumption of five major steel products, among others. [17][19][20]

Price and Basis - Futures prices have declined while the basis has strengthened, with steel billet prices down by 10 to 3080 yuan. The actual transaction price for rebar in East China is 3170 yuan per ton, with the October futures contract at a discount of 51 yuan to the spot price. Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3400 yuan per ton, with the main contract at a discount of 39 yuan to the spot price [1]. Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal production has seen fluctuations, with overall operating rates and output not recovering significantly. After a decline in inventory, there are signs of a potential accumulation again. Iron ore inventories at ports have slightly increased, while steel production remains high, and seasonal demand for steel is declining. Expectations for a contraction in coking coal supply persist, and while iron ore demand remains high, a slight accumulation is expected, leading to a weaker cost support on a month-on-month basis. As prices weaken, steel profits are declining, with profits ranked from high to low as follows: steel billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled coil [1]. Supply - From January to July, iron element production increased by 18 million tons, a growth rate of 3.1%. Month-on-month, August production rebounded compared to July, mainly due to a significant increase in daily scrap steel consumption. Current molten iron production is stable at 2.41 million tons, with daily scrap steel consumption at 55800 tons, up by 0.6% month-on-month. The total production of the five major materials increased by 64000 tons to 8.78 million tons. By product type, rebar production decreased by 58000 tons to 2.15 million tons, while hot-rolled coil production increased by 96000 tons to 3.25 million tons. Since July, production of the five major materials has exceeded demand, leading to inventory pressure due to last year's low production base in August [1][2]. Demand - From January to July, the apparent demand for the five major materials remained flat year-on-year (-0.2%), while the production decline was greater than the apparent demand (-1.3%). The increase in iron element production (+3%) is primarily directed towards non-five major materials and steel billets. Domestic demand has decreased year-on-year, while external demand has increased significantly, with direct and indirect steel exports rising. Overall steel demand has increased year-on-year, with average daily production rising and apparent demand remaining flat, while inventory has decreased year-on-year. Month-on-month, the seasonal decline was not significant, and the impact of tariffs on demand was offset by the increase in direct exports. Apparent demand for rebar has decreased, dragging down overall apparent demand. The apparent demand for the five major materials decreased by 22000 tons to 8.53 million tons, with rebar demand down by 5000 tons to 1.95 million tons, while hot-rolled coil demand increased by 6500 tons to 3.21 million tons [2]. Inventory - This week saw a significant accumulation of inventory, primarily among traders, with little increase in steel mill inventories. The inventory of the five major materials increased by 25000 tons to 14.41 million tons, with rebar inventory up by 20000 tons to 6.07 million tons and hot-rolled coil inventory up by 4000 tons to 3.6144 million tons. By product type, rebar supply has increased while demand has decreased, leading to significant inventory accumulation; for sheet materials, both supply and demand are weak, resulting in minimal inventory accumulation [2]. Outlook - Molten iron production remains stable, with weekly data indicating a slight increase in the production of the five major materials and a slowdown in inventory accumulation, alongside a rebound in apparent demand. Data shows signs of a bottoming out, but levels remain within the off-peak season. August demand saw a significant month-on-month decline, primarily due to poor rebar demand, affecting the spread between rebar and hot-rolled coil, which has widened to around 290. The market remains weak, with steel prices declining. There is an expectation for a rebound in demand during the peak season from September to October, and considering the situation of steel demand and coking coal supply, steel prices are expected to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern. A long position is suggested for trading, with October hot-rolled coil and rebar prices referenced at 3350 yuan and 3150 yuan, respectively [3][4].

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - Hot-rolled coil prices broke through the support level, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from August to September. It is recommended to try shorting the October hot-rolled coil contract at 3380 - 3400 [1]. - Currently, steel mill production remains at a high level. Seasonal decline in rebar demand in August has led to an increase in inventory, with production higher than apparent demand. After the previous price increase, funds are betting on a decline in demand in the second half of the year [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly on a week-on-week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to recover [3]. - Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the second half of the month, the molten iron output in August will decline slightly from the high level, with an average expected to be maintained at around 2.36 million tons per day. Steel mill inventory is increasing, and the restocking demand has weakened. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coke, due to tight supply and demand, downstream steel mills still have restocking demand. There is still an expectation of a seventh round of price increase for coke. The futures price of coke is at a premium to the spot price, providing a hedging opportunity. The cost support of coking coal has weakened, and the previous bullish expectations may have been fully overdrawn [5]. - For coking coal, the spot fundamentals have returned to stable operation. The previous futures price increase has already factored in the expectation of coal mine production restrictions. It is recommended to short on rallies for speculation and conduct a reverse spread trade for the 9 - 1 contract [5]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices generally declined. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar widened to around 290 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased, while slab prices remained unchanged. The costs of various steelmaking processes decreased, and the profits of different regions and varieties also declined [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output and the output of five major steel products increased slightly, while the rebar output decreased slightly. The output of hot-rolled coils increased slightly [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased significantly, while the inventory of hot-rolled coils increased slightly [1]. Transaction and Demand - The transaction volume of building materials and the apparent demand of five major steel products and rebar decreased, while the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils increased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 contract increased. The 5 - 9 spread increased slightly, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased slightly [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports and the global weekly shipment volume increased significantly, and the monthly national import volume also increased [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills and the daily average port clearance volume increased slightly, while the monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased [3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills increased, and the number of available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and declined. The prices of some coking coal varieties in the spot market decreased, while the prices of coke increased after the sixth round of price increase and the seventh round of price increase was initiated [5]. Supply - The coke production increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, and the production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly. The raw coal production decreased slightly, and the clean coal production increased slightly [5]. Demand - The molten iron output increased slightly, and the coke production increased slightly. The demand for coking coal and coke remains resilient, but the restocking demand has weakened [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased, with the inventory in coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreasing. The coking coal inventory decreased in coking plants and steel mills, increased slightly in ports, and the inventory in coal mines decreased at a slower pace [5].

Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The short - term steel inventory pressure is not significant, but the off - season demand has a low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the position transfer, and the price of the October contract is expected to fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to operate on the long side during the callback, and pay attention to the support levels of 3400 and 3200 yuan for the October contract of hot - rolled coil and rebar respectively. Be cautious about chasing long positions. [1] Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures contracts generally declined. The prices of steel billets decreased, while the prices of slab remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions increased, and the profits of rebar in some regions also increased. [1] - **Output**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1%, the output of five major steel products increased by 0.2%, the rebar output increased by 4.8% (with the electric - furnace output increasing by 15.4% and the converter output increasing by 3.3%), and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.4%. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.7%, the rebar inventory increased by 1.9%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.5%. The increase in social steel inventory in the past two weeks was mainly due to the positive arbitrage of spot - futures traders. [1] - **Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 16.2%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.7%, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 3.6%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.3%. [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The iron ore 09 contract showed a volatile trend. In the future, the iron water output in August will remain high, and the improvement of steel mill profits will support the raw materials. However, due to the weakening of steel apparent demand in the off - season, the previous trading logic has been overdrawn. It is recommended to take profit and wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage operations. [4] Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some iron ore varieties' warehouse receipt costs and spot prices changed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 12.5%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 61.5%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.3%. [4] - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 5.0%, and the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 0.5%. The monthly national import volume increased by 8.0%. [4] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%, the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 6.3%, the monthly national pig iron output decreased by 3.0%, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 3.9%. [4] - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.7%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.0%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8%. [4] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The coke futures showed a trend of reaching the peak and then falling back, with sharp price fluctuations recently. The sixth round of price increase of coke has been officially implemented, and there may be further price increases in the future. However, due to factors such as over - drawn bullish expectations and exchange intervention, the current long - side logic has changed. It is recommended to take profit and wait and see for both speculative and arbitrage operations. For coking coal, similar to iron ore, it is also recommended to take profit and wait and see for single - side and arbitrage operations. [6] Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some coke and coking coal varieties and their spreads changed. The coking profit decreased, while the sample coal mine profit increased. The overseas coal prices of some varieties also changed. [6] - **Supply**: The weekly coke output of the full - sample coking plants increased slightly by 0.4%, and the weekly coke output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4%. The weekly raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 1.1%, and the weekly clean coal output decreased by 1.1%. [6] - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%. The demand for coke is related to the pig iron output. [6] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 0.94%, the coke inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 5.3%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.24%, and the port coke inventory increased by 1.4%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 5.7%, the coking coal inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and the port coking coal inventory decreased by 1.7%. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.96%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The steel price was driven up by the resurgence of raw materials, but the fundamentals of rebar did not improve substantially under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The steel price remained prone to pressure, and the upward driving force needed to be tracked. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price showed a strong trend with a daily increase of 1.40%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continued to weaken, inventory increased and the growth rate expanded. However, the real - world contradictions were limited, and the strong upward movement of raw materials provided cost support. In the short term, the price will continue to oscillate higher, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.36%, the shift of the main contract was completed, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Although the demand for iron ore was weakening, the supply recovery was lower than expected, the fundamentals were stable, and the good profit situation of steel mills provided support for the ore price. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Automobile Industry**: In July, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. Among 18 car companies that announced their July production and sales data, more than 60% had a year - on - year increase in sales [6]. - **Real Estate Industry**: The total sales of 18 key real estate enterprises from January to July 2025 were 842.096 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. In July, the total sales were 95.316 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20% and a month - on - month decrease of 41.4%. The total sales area from January to July was 42.6283 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.5%, and in July it was 5.4157 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 31.5% [7]. - **Iron Ore Industry**: The Sydvaranger iron ore in Norway is accelerating its restart. It is expected to start production in 2026. The total resources of the iron ore are about 514 million tons, with an average iron grade of 33.05% and a magnetite iron grade of 28.58% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,340, 3,360 and 3,427 respectively, with price changes of 10, 20 and 19 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,510, 3,460 and 3,522 respectively, with price changes of 30, 20 and 22 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,120 with a change of 20, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 with no change. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 170 with a change of 20, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,200 with a change of 10 [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 788 with a change of 11, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 783 with a change of 10. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 10.58 and 24.95 respectively, with changes of 0.21 and 0.59 respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) was 102.60 with a change of 0.90, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 102.90 with a change of 1.40 [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High Price | Low Price | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,258 | 0.96 | 3,269 | 3,235 | 1,141,600 | - 269,639 | 1,605,388 | - 7,237 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,484 | 1.40 | 3,495 | 3,454 | 488,547 | - 78,139 | 1,381,560 | 6,551 | | Iron Ore | - | 801.0 | 2.36 | 803.0 | 787.5 | 281,002 | 109,995 | 443,799 | 171,910 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report presents the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [16][18][21]. - **Steel Mill Production Situation**: The report shows the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [30][32][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply and demand pattern continued to weaken, the inventory growth rate expanded. Although the output of hot - rolled coils decreased due to the maintenance of plate mills, the sustainability of production reduction was questionable, and the positive effect of supply contraction was not strong. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to weaken, and the weak demand put pressure on the price. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand increased. The production of rebar reached a high level this year, and demand improved, but the sustainability of the improvement was questionable. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continued to weaken, but cost support existed. In the short term, the price will continue to oscillate higher, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [39]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand pattern changed little. The consumption of steel mills decreased, but the profit situation was good, and the overall decline was not large. The supply of iron ore increased limitedly. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [39].

Price and Basis - Absolute prices have significantly increased, while the basis has weakened, with futures outperforming spot prices. The current spot price for rebar in East China is 3100 yuan, with futures at a premium of 33 yuan per ton; hot-rolled coil spot price is 3310 yuan, with futures at a discount of 37 yuan per ton. The 10-1 month price spread has weakened, with rebar at -28 yuan and hot-rolled coil at -7 yuan [1] - Recent market sentiment improvement has led to price increases, boosting spot market sentiment and increasing trade volume. Futures traders are primarily engaging in arbitrage and establishing long positions [1] Supply and Demand - July production continues to decline, with an overall decrease of 90,000 tons from the May peak, including a reduction of 50,000 tons in molten iron and a decrease of 40,000 tons in scrap steel consumption. Current molten iron production is 2.398 million tons, with scrap steel consumption stable at 505,000 tons. The total production of the five major materials has decreased by 124,400 tons to 8.72 million tons; rebar production is down by 40,000 tons to 2.167 million tons, and hot-rolled coil production has decreased by 50,000 tons to 3.232 million tons [2] - Demand for the five major materials remains stable at high levels, with a decrease in demand of 12,200 tons to 8.73 million tons in the current period. The production and demand gap has narrowed in June and July, with hot-rolled coil production exceeding demand, while rebar production is slightly below demand [2] Inventory - Recent production has fluctuated with demand, leading to inventory trends that are less than expected for the off-season. Current inventory of the five major materials has decreased by 3,500 tons to 13.4 million tons, with rebar inventory down by 50,000 tons to 5.4 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory has increased by 6,000 tons to 3.457 million tons. The supply and demand for rebar have both decreased, maintaining a downward inventory trend, while hot-rolled coil has seen a slight increase in inventory [2] Market Sentiment and Strategy - Steel price fluctuations have intensified, with significant increases in rebar and hot-rolled coil prices, and a weakening basis. The recent stabilization of black metal prices began in June due to environmental inspections leading to reduced coking coal production. Improved market sentiment has driven a broad increase in commodity prices, with expectations from the "urban renewal" work meeting stimulating domestic demand [3] - The current market conditions suggest that while there is a low inventory and improved market sentiment supporting valuation recovery, actual demand elasticity remains limited. The next macro observation window is the political bureau meeting at the end of July. Current price levels for rebar and hot-rolled coil are being monitored for potential breakout points at 3100 yuan and 3300 yuan, respectively, with resistance levels at 3220 yuan and 3350 yuan [3]

Group 1: Market Trends - The price of steel has shown signs of stabilization and rebound, but the basis is expected to weaken due to approaching off-season and inventory nearing accumulation inflection point [1] - The demand for five major steel products is expected to continue its downward trend, with a decrease of 14,000 tons to 868 million tons [2] - Steel inventory is nearing the accumulation inflection point, with total inventory decreasing by 9,000 tons to 1,354 million tons, while plate materials have entered a clear accumulation phase [2] Group 2: Supply and Production - The production of steel is showing a high-level decline, with a slight decrease in molten iron output, while finished product reductions are significant [1] - The production of iron elements has increased by 15 million tons year-on-year from January to May, with an average daily increase of nearly 100,000 tons [1] - The current reduction in production is mainly reflected in rebar, while hot-rolled steel has not seen significant reductions [1] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The cost side shows that coking coal inventory continues to accumulate, with supply unlikely to shrink, leading to weak support for carbon element costs [1] - The current profitability ranking from high to low is: steel billet > hot-rolled > rebar > cold-rolled [1] - The price of rebar has fallen below both electric furnace and blast furnace cost lines, resulting in significant reductions in rebar production [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The steel price has shown signs of weakness after a brief rebound, with expectations of continued weak demand due to the suspension of national subsidies and tariffs imposed by the U.S. on steel appliances [3] - The strategy for the week includes holding short positions on hot-rolled and rebar, with attention to whether previous lows of 3,000 and 2,900 can be broken [4]

Report Overview - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: May 22, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - On May 21, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2510 oscillated, while the main contract of stainless steel futures 2507 oscillated upward. Currently, the fundamental contradictions of rebar and hot-rolled coil are small, and market sentiment has improved. In the short term, the futures prices will maintain an oscillating trend [5][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Trends - On May 21, the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in the spot market remained mostly unchanged, with only the hot-rolled coil price in Nanjing dropping by 10 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2510 contracts showed a divergent downward trend, and the daily MACD red bars of both contracts shrank [8] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - Currently, the output of the five major steel products has slightly declined, inventory has increased, and the demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil has dropped from its peak. In terms of downstream demand, there are multiple signs of recovery in the real estate market. The steel demand in the automotive, shipbuilding, and machinery industries has generally maintained a high growth trend. Macroscopically, the Sino-US tariff situation has eased, the expectation of rush exports has increased significantly, and the expectation of downstream demand has recovered. In the future, the short-term futures prices will maintain an oscillating trend [10] 3.2 Industry News - In April 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.019 million tons, remaining flat year-on-year; from January to April, the cumulative crude steel output was 345.351 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. From January to April 2025, Hebei ranked first with an output of 73.5503 million tons, followed by Jiangsu with 41.978 million tons and Shandong with 24.3396 million tons [11] - According to Mysteel, in May, HBIS Group's tender price for 75B ferrosilicon was set at 5,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from 5,950 yuan/ton in April, with an inquiry price of 5,700 yuan/ton [11] - As of May 19, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 146.2763 million tons, a decrease of 2.5825 million tons from the previous Monday [11] - On May 21, the capacity utilization rate of 104 electric furnace plants across the country surveyed by Fubao Information was 40.4%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous week. The daily consumption of scrap steel was 245,400 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons from the previous period, a growth rate of 3.1%. The daily consumption of electric furnaces has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the daily consumption level of 104 electric furnaces has reached a new high in nearly 18 months [11] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output of the five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the blast furnace operating rate and ironmaking capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national average daily pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between the Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and the May contracts [14][15][24][27][31]

基差：一季度螺纹钢和热卷价格整体呈现区间波动走势，一月初价格从低位冲高后，二、三月价格中枢 有所回落。螺纹钢价格波动区间3150-3400元；热卷波动区间为3300-3500元。截止3月末，5月合约螺纹 和热卷价格分别是3200元和3300元。螺纹基差偏强走势，现货偏弱；热卷基差持平走势。跨期价差方 面，5-10价差呈现下跌走势。螺纹5-10价差持续下跌，从-20下跌至-80元/每吨。热卷5-10价差从-10下跌 至-45元每吨。一季度钢材供需矛盾不大，原料双焦价格走弱，钢材需求预期偏弱，影响钢价中枢有所 下移。 供给：产量接近去年高点，考虑去年二季度产量基数高，预计增量压力将在三季度出现。从高频数据看 铁元素产量（铁水+废钢日耗）：一季度产量累计增幅500万吨，预计4月份产量累计增幅1000万吨。考 虑去年5-7月份是高基数，今年上半年的产量增幅大概在1000万吨水平。去年3季度基数低，预计三季度 增量压力凸显，以当前产量平推全年增长3500万吨。 3月策略：螺纹钢和热卷5月波动分别参考3200-3400元区间和3300-3500元区间。 二季度观点：螺纹钢和热卷10月波动分别参考3200-3400元区间和 ...