Core Viewpoint - After the recent price adjustment, iron ore valuations are at a neutral to low level, and with the expected recovery of steel mills and macro policy support, further downside is limited. However, the market is expected to enter a phase of oversupply, leading to a downward shift in price levels throughout the year [1][8]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Since the end of January, iron ore prices have declined due to two main reasons: changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts and liquidity, and cautious raw material restocking by steel mills, with iron ore inventories down by 5.2968 million tons year-on-year across 247 steel mills [2]. - As of February 11, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 762.5 yuan/ton, indicating limited further downside in the current price position [1][2]. Group 2: Production and Supply Factors - Despite a recent incident affecting production, the average daily pig iron output across 247 steel mills has remained stable between 2.27 million and 2.29 million tons. Steel mills are likely to increase production in the traditional demand season of March-April to meet annual production targets [3]. - The first quarter is typically a supply off-season for iron ore, with historical data showing a decrease in shipments by 9.5 to 10 million tons compared to the previous quarter. However, high shipment levels were maintained in January due to fewer extreme weather events [5]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - There are expectations for further macroeconomic policy support, particularly in light of the emphasis on expanding domestic demand in upcoming economic meetings. The People's Bank of China has already implemented measures to lower structural monetary policy rates [6]. - The anticipated recovery in manufacturing demand, coupled with resilient export performance, is expected to boost iron ore demand [6]. Group 4: Valuation and Future Projections - Current iron ore prices are around 100 USD/ton, which is near a five-year low. The profit margins for steel mills have improved, indicating that iron ore valuations are at a neutral to low level [7]. - In the medium to long term, the market is expected to transition into a phase of oversupply, with significant increases in supply projected from emerging mines and major producers. The expected increase in iron ore supply for 2026 is estimated to be between 40 to 45 million tons [8].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The inventory continues to rise, steel mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore runs smoothly. The average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly this week. The contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, and steel mills mainly replenish inventory normally before the festival, with limited positive effects. It is expected that the demand for ore will continue to be weak. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports continues to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners have stabilized. The reduction of port arrivals is limited according to the shipping schedule, domestic ore supply is stable, and combined with the high inventory, the supply pressure of ore remains. Thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has rebounded in shock. However, the supply pressure of ore remains under the high - inventory situation, and the ore demand is weak. The fundamentals of ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a volatile operation under the game of long - and short - term factors. Attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment of steel mills [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 17,022.26, with a week - on - week increase of 255.73, a monthly increase of 1,051.37 compared with the end of last month, and a year - on - year increase of 2,019.30 compared with the same period (lunar calendar). 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,968.59, with a week - on - week increase of 579.77, a monthly increase of 1,022.05, and a year - on - year decrease of 105.49 [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,530.00, with a week - on - week decrease of 129.70, a monthly decrease of 71.40, and a year - on - year decrease of 304.30. The global iron ore shipment volume is 2,978.30, with a week - on - week increase of 48.50, a monthly decrease of 698.82, and a year - on - year decrease of 133.80 [1] Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 227.98, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12, a monthly increase of 0.55, and a year - on - year increase of 3.61. The 45 - port average daily ore - clearing volume is 332.31, with a week - on - week increase of 21.58, a monthly increase of 7.10, and a year - on - year increase of 6.04. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 280.96, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.94, a monthly increase of 0.29, and a year - on - year increase of 1.19. The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 90.65, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.87, a monthly increase of 9.97, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.81 [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Weekly Report 2026/1/28 [1] - Author: Kang Jian [1] -从业资格证号: F03088041 [1] -交易咨询证号: Z0019583 [1] - Research Contact: kangjian@zjtfqh.com [1] -审核: Li Wentao [1] -交易咨询证号: Z0015640 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Supply has stabilized and is rising, downstream profits are stable, hot metal production is fluctuating within a narrow range, downstream demand is fair, and the short - term supply - demand situation is loose. However, pre - holiday restocking demand remains, so iron ore may maintain a volatile trend. [4] - The monthly spread of iron ore may remain volatile in the short term. [5] Summary by Directory Supply - Global iron ore shipments have stabilized and slightly increased. Reuters data shows that on January 24, 2026, the 7 - day moving average of global iron ore shipments (excluding mainland China) was 4327 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 70.7%. Australian shipments were 2352 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.8% and a year - on - year increase of 114.6%, and Brazilian shipments were 905.9 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.1% but a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. [24][29] - Except for India, non - mainstream shipments are 82% higher year - on - year. [33] - The total arrival volume has declined, but it is still higher year - on - year. The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 129.7 thousand tons last week. [52][101] - The total output of domestic iron ore continues to rise. [107] Demand - The profitability rate of steel mills has increased, and hot metal production has slightly increased. The daily average hot metal production of 247 samples was 228.1 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 thousand tons, and the average daily hot metal production in January was about 228 thousand tons, indicating stable demand. [10][110] - The profits of finished steel products are stable, and the scrap - to - pig iron price difference in Tangshan is stable. [114] - The weekly output of the five major steel products has slightly increased, the profits of finished steel products are stable, the demand for rebar has slightly decreased, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has slightly decreased. [133] Inventory - Port inventory has increased. The 45 - port inventory increased by 212 thousand tons, and the proportion of traded ore was 66.3%, a slight increase compared to the previous period. [152] - The total inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased by 127 thousand tons, the inventory in steel mills decreased by 2.53 thousand tons, and the inventory of floating cargoes + port inventory increased by 129.1 thousand tons. The available days of imported ore increased by 2 days to 23 days. [162] Price - Futures and spot prices have declined in a volatile manner, the basis is stable, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread has slightly decreased. [169] - The basis of the 05 contract is about 3%, and the basis is stable, with the basis rate slightly decreasing by 0.2%. [10] - The decline in the premium of Brazilian fines has slowed down, the premiums of mainstream low - to - medium - grade ores are stable, and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores continues to increase slightly. [9][179][182] - Ocean freight has stabilized and rebounded, and the import profits of mainstream varieties are stable. [185][191] - The average value of the Platts Index in January was 105, corresponding to a disk valuation of about 782. [8][193] Balance Sheet - The total supply and consumption of iron ore show different trends over time. The total supply in 2026/1 was 12386 million tons, and the consumption was 12538 million tons, with a surplus of - 342 million tons. [195] - Due to the continuously high year - on - year hot metal production, the report slightly increased the demand forecast for iron ore. [195]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term iron ore supply - demand contradictions continue to accumulate, the support of restocking demand for prices weakens, supply is in the off - season but shows high year - on - year growth, price highs are restricted by industrial chain profits, and the restocking demand drive has entered the realization period. It is expected that the short - term price peak has appeared, and it is recommended to mainly short on rebounds [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - Current overseas ore shipments are in the off - season, with weekly shipments declining for three consecutive weeks. Before mid - February, overseas ore shipments will continue to weaken month - on - month but be higher than the same period last year due to the low base caused by the hurricane in Australia last year. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. As of January 19, the total global iron ore shipments were 29.898 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.511 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.004 million tons. The total shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 21.64 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.692 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.28 million tons [1]. Demand - Domestic demand has slightly declined but remains at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. The profitability of steel mills has stabilized after the decline in carbon element prices, and steel inventories have not shown super - seasonal accumulation. Overall, domestic steel mill demand is stable in the short term, restocking demand is in the middle stage, and its marginal support is weakening. The Baotou Steel accident has a substantial impact on demand, and there is an expectation of further upgrading of safety production supervision [1]. Inventory - Steel mill imports of iron ore inventory have increased for four consecutive weeks, and the pre - Spring Festival seasonal restocking of steel mills is in the second half, with the restocking support weakening. Port inventories continue to accumulate due to relatively high arrivals. It is expected that as arrivals decline and restocking demand increases, the pressure on port inventory accumulation will ease [1]. 4. Strategy - Interval operation and covered call options [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global iron ore market is entering a new growth cycle, with production expected to increase from 2.4 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons over the next five years, driven by new capacity from the Guinea Simandou project and a more relaxed supply-demand balance [1][8]. Group 1: Iron Ore Supply Dynamics - The Guinea Simandou project is projected to significantly contribute to global iron ore supply, with its production capacity expected to reach 200 million tons by 2030 [7][8]. - The supply structure is shifting towards a multi-polar model, with Australia, Brazil, and Africa becoming key players in iron ore supply [2][8]. - The production capacity of major mining companies is on the rise, with capital expenditures for Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale, and FMG showing consistent growth [3][4][5]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - Vale's capital expenditure is expected to rise from 25.84 billion yuan in 2019 to 47 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.7% [3]. - Rio Tinto's capital expenditure is projected to grow from 20.89 billion yuan in 2016 to 70.14 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.3% [4]. - FMG's capital expenditure is anticipated to increase from 2.39 billion yuan in 2016 to 27.05 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 30.9% [5]. Group 3: Domestic and International Demand - Domestic iron ore production in China is expected to stabilize around 1 billion tons, influenced by stricter safety and environmental regulations [10][14]. - The steel industry in China is showing signs of recovery, with profits rebounding after a significant decline, which may lead to increased production [11][12]. - Emerging economies, particularly in Asia and Africa, are experiencing robust steel demand due to ongoing infrastructure investments, contrasting with declining production in developed economies [13]. Group 4: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The iron ore price is expected to gradually decline as the market transitions from a phase of quantitative to qualitative changes in supply and demand [1][14]. - The average iron ore price is projected to stabilize around 750 yuan per ton, with fluctuations expected to increase compared to the previous two years [2][14].

Group 1 - Iron ore futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 825.5 yuan, with a current price of 824.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.58% [1] - Institutions have varying views on the future of iron ore prices, with East Wu Futures recommending light positions, citing stable fundamentals but high port inventories that may suppress price increases [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures expects short-term iron ore prices to continue fluctuating slightly higher, driven by increased shipments from Brazil and a slight recovery in domestic high furnace operating rates [3] Group 2 - Donghai Futures anticipates a short-term outlook of fluctuating prices, influenced by significant increases in other metals and a slight recovery in steel mill profitability, leading to improved demand for iron ore [3] - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 4.634 million tons week-on-week, while port inventories continued to rise, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic [3] - Key factors influencing iron ore prices include the pace of declining pig iron production and the timing of price bottoms, with expectations of a slightly stronger market in the short term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have shown a strong upward trend since mid-December, with both futures and spot prices reaching new highs, supported by various market factors [1][5]. Group 1: Price Trends - Iron ore futures prices have broken through a five-month resistance level, reaching a peak of 105.80 USD/ton in the Platts iron ore price index [1]. - The spot price remains strong, with port transaction volumes increasing significantly [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Despite some positive indicators, the overall demand for iron ore remains weak, with steel mills' profitability still low; only 38.10% of surveyed steel mills are currently profitable [3]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to drive a temporary increase in demand as steel mills prepare for inventory replenishment, typically increasing by about 16.3 million tons in the four weeks leading up to the holiday [3]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Domestic port arrivals of iron ore have increased, with a total of 28.247 million tons reported, while global shipments remain high despite a recent weekly decline [4]. - Port inventories have reached a historical high of 167.218 million tons, indicating significant supply pressure in the market [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market fundamentals for iron ore remain weak, with limited upward momentum in prices expected due to ongoing supply pressures and constrained demand [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global iron ore supply-demand relationship is statically loose. The supply increase is mainly from non-mainstream mines and those in Guinea. The domestic demand faces downward pressure, while overseas demand will see a slight increase. Port inventories will continue to accumulate, and iron ore prices may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong due to supply contraction, steel mill复产, winter storage, and construction start expectations. In the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure as supply increases and demand remains weak [3][44]. - In terms of spot-futures and inter-month arbitrage, the mismatch between the realization of supply increase expectations and the fluctuation rhythm of hot metal production may bring arbitrage opportunities. For example, in March, attention can be paid to the 5 - 9 inter - period positive spread and spot - futures reverse spread [3][44]. - For inter - variety arbitrage, if the supply increase is realized, iron ore may change from a relatively strong variety in the black commodities to a relatively weak one. Opportunities for the contraction of the ratio of iron ore to coking coal and coke can be considered, as well as the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio after the supply increase of iron ore is realized [3][44][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Ore Demand Side - Weak at Home, Strong Abroad, with a Slight Steady Increase 1.1 Domestic Demand: Still Under Pressure - In 2025, from January to November, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with private fixed - asset investment down 5.3%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the decline widened by 1.0 percentage points compared with the first 10 months. Real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% year - on - year from January to November, but the growth rate slowed down [8][11][12]. - In 2025, China's steel consumption was 808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. In 2026, the steel demand is expected to be 790 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Due to the real estate market not bottoming out, the demand for construction steel in 2026 may be weaker than expected, with the national steel demand decreasing by more than 2.0% year - on - year [17]. - In 2026, constrained by the decline in domestic steel demand, steel mills may find it difficult to maintain profits under inventory pressure. According to the Steel Union's statistical caliber, the pig iron output is estimated to be 855 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. The iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons [23][26]. 1.2 Foreign Demand: Steady Growth - The Metallurgical Planning and Research Institute predicts that the global steel consumption in 2025 was 1.719 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, and in 2026, the global steel demand will be 1.736 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. The World Steel Association expects that the global steel demand in 2026 will rebound moderately by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons, mainly driven by the strong performance of India, some ASEAN, and Middle East and North African countries [24]. - Considering China's large base of steel demand, it is expected that the global steel demand will increase by 0.8% year - on - year in 2026. The steel demand of countries other than China will increase by 3.5% year - on - year, which translates to an increase of 33.5 million tons in 62% iron ore demand [24][26]. 1.3 Demand Summary - Domestically, the iron ore demand in 2026 is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons. Overseas, the iron ore demand is expected to increase by 33.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons in 2026 [26]. Chapter 2: Ore Supply Side - Mainstream Mines are Stable, Focus on Increment from Emerging Mines 2.1 Australian and Brazilian Mainstream Mines: Goal - Oriented, with Steady Growth - In 2025, the world's four major iron ore giants all achieved or exceeded their annual production or shipment targets. In 2026, the total output of the four major mines is expected to reach 1.135 billion tons, an increase of 18 million tons compared with the actual output in 2025. The supply is abundant, and the sales volume in the second half of the year is generally higher than that in the first half, with a total sequential increase of 36.6 million tons [27][30][38]. - Vale and Rio Tinto will be the main contributors to the increase in the second half of the year, with sequential increases of 15 million tons and 13 million tons respectively. BHP's increase is the smallest, only 1.48 million tons, indicating limited production growth space. FMG's sales volume will increase by 7.12 million tons in the second half of the year, showing moderate expansion [30][38][40]. 2.2 Foreign Non - Mainstream Mines and Domestic Mines: Guinea and India Contribute the Main Increment - In 2025, the iron ore shipments from non - Australian and non - Brazilian regions increased significantly. In 2026, the Simandou project in Guinea will contribute the main increment, with an estimated output of 20 million tons from the north and south blocks combined. India's iron ore production and sales are expected to continue to grow. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines in 2026 is 34 million tons [33]. - In 2025, the output of domestic iron concentrate was estimated to be 243 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8 million tons. In 2026, the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is expected to be 2 - 3.5 million tons, mainly from the technological transformation and expansion of leading enterprises. However, due to resource, environmental protection, and international ore price constraints, the possibility of significant growth is low [35]. 2.3 Supply Summary - The total output of the four major foreign mines is expected to increase by 18 million tons in 2026. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines is 34 million tons, and the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is 2 - 3.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore supply will increase in 2026, with an estimated year - on - year increment of 54 - 55.5 million tons [38][40]. Chapter 3: Ore Inventory Side - Steel Mills Control Inventories, Ports Face Pressure 3.1 Port Inventory: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation - At the end of December, the inventory of 45 ports was 159 million tons, an increase of 10 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, with a growth rate of 6.71%. In 2026, the iron ore supply - demand relationship is statically loose, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate [41]. 3.2 Steel Mills: Winter Storage is Delayed, and the Low - Inventory Model Continues - The current inventory level is at a low point in 2025. Due to steel mill maintenance in December and the late Spring Festival in 2026, the low - inventory model of steel mills remains unchanged. It is expected that steel mills will start to replenish inventory from January to February 2026 and then maintain a relatively low - inventory structure [42]. Chapter 4: Iron Ore Summary and Trading Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year - In terms of supply - demand pattern, in 2026, the global iron ore supply will increase by about 54 - 55.5 million tons, the demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. Steel mills maintain a cautious approach and adopt a low - inventory management strategy for raw materials [44]. - Overall, the iron ore price may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong, while in the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure. In terms of arbitrage, attention can be paid to spot - futures and inter - month arbitrage in March, as well as inter - variety arbitrage opportunities such as the contraction of the iron ore - coking coal/coke ratio and the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio [3][44][45].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the global mining capacity entering an expansion cycle and China's port iron ore inventory reaching historical highs, iron ore futures prices remain resilient at high levels, indicating a divergence between long-term expectations and short-term realities [1] Inventory Levels - Although the total port iron ore inventory is at a historical high, the inventory structure is severely differentiated, leading to a "loose total, tight structure" scenario [2] - The differentiation in varieties exacerbates structural contradictions, with Brazilian ore inventory being high while Australian ore inventory is generally low, particularly for certain grades like PB powder, which is at a low level [2] - Steel mills are currently shifting towards purchasing lower-grade Australian ore due to profit fluctuations, which has led to a structural supply shortage and sustained increases in spot prices [2] - The low inventory levels at steel mills reinforce the demand for replenishment, providing solid short-term buying support for iron ore prices [2] Mining Profits - Iron ore, as a crucial industrial raw material, follows the logic of "demand determines direction, supply determines elasticity" [3] - China's iron ore demand remains strong, with cumulative pig iron production increasing by approximately 24.5 million tons year-on-year, leading to an estimated increase in iron ore demand of about 39.2 million tons [3] - The global iron ore supply is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with four major mining companies controlling nearly half of the production and over 70% of the trade volume [3] - This asymmetric structure allows mining companies to maintain high profits even during industry downturns, contributing to the long-term price resilience of iron ore [3] Steel Mill Replenishment - The specific participant structure in the futures market further solidifies the strong price trend of iron ore, with foreign institutions holding significant long positions that influence market sentiment and price movements [4] - The persistent backwardation in iron ore futures creates an inherent attractiveness for long positions, providing stable support for prices [4] - Historical trends indicate that significant price declines in iron ore are typically driven by demand contractions rather than supply increases, which are often fully priced in by the market [4] Overall Market Dynamics - Supply growth is a long-term slow variable with limited short-term impact on iron ore prices; the main contradictions currently lie in demand and inventory structure [5] - In the short term, due to the current structural contradictions in inventory and the seasonal replenishment phase for steel mills, there is still potential for slight price increases [5] - However, as supply continues to increase and replenishment ends, along with the current low profitability of steel mills, iron ore may face downward pressure if production recovery in Q1 next year does not meet expectations [5] Future Focus - Two key variables to monitor are the changes in domestic steel mill production rhythms and the actual production and shipping progress of the West Mangdu project, which could be critical drivers in breaking the current price stalemate [6]

Group 1 - Despite weak fundamentals, iron ore prices rebounded last week due to macroeconomic positive expectations, with short-term prices expected to remain relatively strong [1][2] - The current iron ore market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with port inventories continuing to accumulate [1] - Global iron ore shipments have been on the rise since late November, reaching a year-to-date high in the week of December 12, with a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1] Group 2 - The rebound in iron ore prices is primarily driven by expectations of macroeconomic policies, with the government planning to introduce more incremental policies in 2026 to boost consumption and investment [2] - In 2026, China's crude steel demand is expected to decline by 1.5%, with a significant drop in demand from the real estate sector, while non-real estate steel consumption may also decrease [3] - Global iron ore supply is projected to increase by approximately 56 million tons in 2026, marking the beginning of a loose supply cycle, with major contributions from various mining companies [3] Group 3 - The supply-demand balance indicates a reduction of about 27 million tons in China's iron ore demand in 2026, leading to a global oversupply of approximately 60 million tons [4] - Port prices for iron ore may test the $85 per ton mark as the supply exceeds demand further [4]