Core Viewpoint - Despite the global mining capacity entering an expansion cycle and China's port iron ore inventory reaching historical highs, iron ore futures prices remain resilient at high levels, indicating a divergence between long-term expectations and short-term realities [1] Inventory Levels - Although the total port iron ore inventory is at a historical high, the inventory structure is severely differentiated, leading to a "loose total, tight structure" scenario [2] - The differentiation in varieties exacerbates structural contradictions, with Brazilian ore inventory being high while Australian ore inventory is generally low, particularly for certain grades like PB powder, which is at a low level [2] - Steel mills are currently shifting towards purchasing lower-grade Australian ore due to profit fluctuations, which has led to a structural supply shortage and sustained increases in spot prices [2] - The low inventory levels at steel mills reinforce the demand for replenishment, providing solid short-term buying support for iron ore prices [2] Mining Profits - Iron ore, as a crucial industrial raw material, follows the logic of "demand determines direction, supply determines elasticity" [3] - China's iron ore demand remains strong, with cumulative pig iron production increasing by approximately 24.5 million tons year-on-year, leading to an estimated increase in iron ore demand of about 39.2 million tons [3] - The global iron ore supply is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with four major mining companies controlling nearly half of the production and over 70% of the trade volume [3] - This asymmetric structure allows mining companies to maintain high profits even during industry downturns, contributing to the long-term price resilience of iron ore [3] Steel Mill Replenishment - The specific participant structure in the futures market further solidifies the strong price trend of iron ore, with foreign institutions holding significant long positions that influence market sentiment and price movements [4] - The persistent backwardation in iron ore futures creates an inherent attractiveness for long positions, providing stable support for prices [4] - Historical trends indicate that significant price declines in iron ore are typically driven by demand contractions rather than supply increases, which are often fully priced in by the market [4] Overall Market Dynamics - Supply growth is a long-term slow variable with limited short-term impact on iron ore prices; the main contradictions currently lie in demand and inventory structure [5] - In the short term, due to the current structural contradictions in inventory and the seasonal replenishment phase for steel mills, there is still potential for slight price increases [5] - However, as supply continues to increase and replenishment ends, along with the current low profitability of steel mills, iron ore may face downward pressure if production recovery in Q1 next year does not meet expectations [5] Future Focus - Two key variables to monitor are the changes in domestic steel mill production rhythms and the actual production and shipping progress of the West Mangdu project, which could be critical drivers in breaking the current price stalemate [6]

Group 1 - Despite weak fundamentals, iron ore prices rebounded last week due to macroeconomic positive expectations, with short-term prices expected to remain relatively strong [1][2] - The current iron ore market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with port inventories continuing to accumulate [1] - Global iron ore shipments have been on the rise since late November, reaching a year-to-date high in the week of December 12, with a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1] Group 2 - The rebound in iron ore prices is primarily driven by expectations of macroeconomic policies, with the government planning to introduce more incremental policies in 2026 to boost consumption and investment [2] - In 2026, China's crude steel demand is expected to decline by 1.5%, with a significant drop in demand from the real estate sector, while non-real estate steel consumption may also decrease [3] - Global iron ore supply is projected to increase by approximately 56 million tons in 2026, marking the beginning of a loose supply cycle, with major contributions from various mining companies [3] Group 3 - The supply-demand balance indicates a reduction of about 27 million tons in China's iron ore demand in 2026, leading to a global oversupply of approximately 60 million tons [4] - Port prices for iron ore may test the $85 per ton mark as the supply exceeds demand further [4]

Group 1 - The spot price of iron ore at Qingdao Port is reported at 787 CNY/ton for 61.5% PB powder, with a basis of 9 CNY/ton [1] - On December 18, the futures market closed with the main iron ore contract at 777.5 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.63% increase, with a trading volume of 322,377 lots [1] - Nationally, the total iron ore transaction at major ports reached 831,000 tons, a decrease of 18.05% compared to the previous period [3] Group 2 - The Brazilian government of Amapá plans to restart iron ore production at the Amapá project, potentially attracting up to 200 million USD in investment [3] - Cadence has raised 600,000 USD on the London Stock Exchange to resume operations at the Aztec small mine, which is expected to produce 380,000 to 400,000 tons of iron concentrate annually [3] Group 3 - According to Nanhua Futures, the trading logic for iron ore has returned to fundamentals, with supply constraints from major mining companies and low steel mill inventories indicating a need for restocking [4] - Despite a seasonal decline in pig iron production, a recovery is expected in January, while rebar and hot-rolled coil production has decreased more than seasonally, alleviating inventory pressure [4] - The high production levels and accumulation of coking coal inventories are providing downward price support for iron ore [4]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping by 1.43% to 756.0 yuan, indicating a weak market sentiment [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Zhengxin Futures anticipates that iron ore prices still have room for correction due to a dual weakness in supply and demand, with a notable decline in iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [2]. - Xingye Futures suggests that the iron ore May contract can still be held lightly short, as the fundamentals indicate a clear trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand for imported ore in December [3]. - Nanhua Futures believes that the downside for iron ore prices is limited, supported by low steel mill inventories and the necessity for pre-holiday restocking, despite seasonal declines in iron production [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows a year-on-year increase of 32.5 million tons in global shipments, primarily from non-mainstream mines, while port inventories continue to accumulate [4]. - Demand is facing seasonal declines in iron production, but the recovery in steel mill profits may limit further production cuts, providing some support for prices [4]. - The overall market is characterized by a weak supply-demand balance, with expectations of continued price fluctuations within specified ranges for different contracts [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trends in China's iron ore imports for 2025, highlighting a "low first, high later" trajectory influenced by extreme weather and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Import Trends - In the first half of 2025, China's iron ore imports are expected to decline due to extreme weather, with major mining companies experiencing a significant drop in import volumes [1]. - Starting from the third quarter, the shipping volumes from the four major mining companies are gradually returning to normal, leading to a continuous increase in iron ore imports from June to October 2025 [1]. - In September 2025, iron ore imports increased by 11.7% year-on-year, reaching a historical monthly high, while in October, imports of iron ore and its concentrates totaled 11.131 million tons, up 7.2% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite strong iron ore imports this year, stock levels at major Chinese ports are above seasonal averages but still below 2024 levels, indicating a complex market situation [1]. - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that the declining profit margins of Chinese steel mills and low crude steel production are contributing to downward pressure on iron ore prices [1]. - A recent ban on certain supplies from BHP Group has temporarily supported prices, but its potential lifting could lead to an influx of products into the market, exacerbating downward pressure [3]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The current rise in iron ore prices is attributed to speculative trading and capital market activities rather than genuine demand, according to the China Mineral Resources Research Institute [3]. - Accumulating port inventories and persistently weak actual demand are expected to exert substantial pressure on price increases, indicating that reliance on short-term speculation is insufficient to drive long-term price trends [3]. - Industry participants are advised to discern market signals rationally and remain cautious of prices deviating from actual supply and demand conditions to avoid following trends blindly [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, there is still some room for growth in iron ore consumption, but explosive growth is unlikely. The supply - demand of iron ore is expected to continue to shift towards looseness. In the case of a 0.1% increase in domestic crude steel consumption, the iron ore supply - demand surplus will exceed 20 million tons. Considering the finished product end, the surplus of iron elements is higher. If the annual average price in 2026 is calculated at $95, high - cost non - mainstream mines will further reduce the volume sent to China compared to this year, and the decline in production may be lower than this value, which will support iron ore prices and limit the downside space. Throughout the year, iron ore prices will fluctuate within a certain range, and the volatility may further decline [6]. - In 2025, the iron ore price showed an N - shaped trend. The annual average price of the iron ore index is expected to be around $103, a decrease of about $6 compared to the 2024 average price of $109. The global iron ore supply was significantly lower than expected from January to October, leading to a reduction of 3.21 million tons in domestic port inventory. It is expected that the global iron ore demand will increase significantly in 2025, while the supply will increase slightly [7][8]. - In 2026, new global iron ore production capacity is expected to continue to be put into operation, with an estimated supply increment of about 50 million tons. This may lead to a further decline in the annual average price of iron ore and reduce the supply of non - mainstream iron ore with higher marginal costs. Overseas crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 2.0%, and production by 1.0%; domestic crude steel consumption will grow by 0.1% and production by 1.4%. China's net export of crude steel is expected to maintain high - level growth, increasing by 8.0% compared to 2025. The supply - demand of iron ore in 2026 remains relatively loose [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Iron Ore Market Review - **Price Trend**: The iron ore price in 2025 showed an N - shaped trend. The annual average price of the iron ore index is expected to be around $103, a decrease of about $6 compared to 2024 [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the iron ore main contract showed a volatile trend. Currently, it is still in a state of contango. After August, the spot performance was strong, and the futures fluctuated. Currently, the basis of PB powder main contract is at the median level in recent years [23]. - **Spread**: In the first half of 2025, the high - medium grade premium fluctuated downward. Subsequently, as steel mill profits were continuously compressed, the high - medium grade spread narrowed, and the medium - low grade spread widened [25]. 3.2 2025 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Overseas Demand**: From January to October 2025, overseas crude steel consumption increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 2.1% for the whole year. Overseas crude steel production increased by 0.3% year - on - year from January to October, and is expected to increase by 0.5% for the whole year. From January to October, overseas total iron production decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and iron ore consumption decreased by 3.68 million tons [28]. - **Domestic Demand**: As of October 2025, domestic crude steel production increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and is expected to reach 1.135 billion tons for the whole year, an increase of 35.24 million tons. The consumption of scrap steel increased by 5.6% year - on - year from January to October, and is expected to increase by 3.7% for the whole year. Iron ore consumption is expected to increase by 47.28 million tons for the whole year [39]. - **Global Total Iron Production**: In 2025, global total iron production is expected to increase significantly. The proportion of China's total iron production in the global total iron production has rebounded [47]. - **Iron Ore Supply**: From January to October 2025, domestic iron ore imports were 1.03 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.04 million tons. It is expected that the net import of domestic iron ore will increase by 1.3% or 15.36 million tons for the whole year [53]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From January to October, global iron ore consumption increased by 47.39 million tons, while supply increased by 3.01 million tons. It is expected that the global iron ore demand will increase significantly in 2025, while the supply will increase slightly. The supply - demand of iron ore in the second half of the year will shift from a tight pattern to a loose one [68]. 3.3 2026 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Outlook - **New Production Capacity**: In 2026, global iron ore production capacity is expected to continue to expand, with an estimated supply increment of about 50 million tons. This may lead to a further decline in the annual average price of iron ore and reduce the supply of non - mainstream iron ore with higher marginal costs [10]. - **Overseas Consumption**: In 2026, overseas crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 2.0%, and production by 1.0%. Overseas iron ore consumption is expected to increase by 8.54 million tons [83]. - **Domestic Consumption**: In 2026, domestic crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 0.1%, and production by 1.4%. China's net export of crude steel is expected to maintain high - level growth, increasing by 8.0% compared to 2025. China's iron ore consumption is expected to increase by nearly 20.24 million tons, and imports are expected to increase by nearly 40.44 million tons [90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Based on the above conditions, the supply - demand of iron ore in 2026 remains relatively loose [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall inventory of iron ore remains high, but due to limited availability of some resources, structural contradictions still exist, providing some support for spot prices. - In November, there were no significant macro - events. Starting from December, the macro - impact is expected to gradually increase. - Overall, iron ore prices are expected to move within an oscillatory range [11][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The total global iron ore shipment volume was 32.784 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.374 million tons, a decrease of 2.713 million tons. Australia's shipment volume was 18.396 million tons, a decrease of 2.109 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 15.536 million tons, a decrease of 3.194 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 7.978 million tons, a decrease of 0.604 million tons. The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 29.395 million tons, an increase of 5.696 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 28.171 million tons, an increase of 5.482 million tons [11][13]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 0.016 million tons from the previous week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week [11][13]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 159.0122 million tons, an increase of 1.6637 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4406 million tons, an increase of 0.0067 million tons [11][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spread**: The PB - Super Special powder price spread was 111 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 3.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price spread was 91 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price spread was 147 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price spread was - 10.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.5 yuan/ton [17][19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: The pellet feed ratio was 14.52%, a change of - 0.03 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.22%, a change of - 0.23 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 73.27%, a change of + 0.27 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2145 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 10 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2080 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [23][25]. - **Profit**: The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a change of - 2.6 percentage points from the previous week; the import profit of PB powder according to the Steel Union's data was - 8.18 yuan/wet ton [26][28]. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 152.1012 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 1.5547 million tons. The pellet inventory was 302,350 tons, a change of + 91,800 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 1.28443 million tons, a change of + 360,000 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.97937 million tons, a change of + 163,300 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 63.0746 million tons, a change of + 0.8122 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 59.8703 million tons, a change of - 0.1998 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills this week was 8.94248 million tons, a change of - 0.05875 million tons from the previous week [32][35][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: The latest shipment volume from Australia to China through 19 ports was 15.27 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 2.851 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 7.931 million tons, a change of - 0.548 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipment volume to China was 4.975 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.497 million tons. BHP Billiton's shipment volume to China was 4.445 million tons, a decrease of 1.045 million tons. Vale's shipment volume was 5.462 million tons, a decrease of 1.254 million tons. FMG's shipment volume to China was 4.002 million tons, a decrease of 0.184 million tons [47][50][53]. - **Arrival and Import**: The latest arrival volume at 45 ports was 28.171 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.482 million tons. In October, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 19.8492 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2656 million tons [47][59]. - **Domestic Mines**: The latest domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 60.77%, a change of - 0.02 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 474,800 tons, a change of - 20,000 tons [47][65]. 3.5 Demand Side - The daily average pig iron output in China was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 0.016 million tons from the previous week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.3058 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.0066 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 2.8943 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0225 million tons [67][70][73]. 3.6 Basis - As of November 28, the calculated basis of iron ore BRBF was 44.83 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.34% [75][78].

Core Insights - The iron ore market is experiencing slight price fluctuations, with current prices for major varieties around 800 CNY for 60.8% PB powder and 790-795 CNY for Mac powder [1] - The overall demand for steel in China is declining, which is expected to influence mid-term iron ore prices negatively [4] Price Summary - As of November 28, 2025, the main iron ore prices at various ports are as follows: - Jiangyin Port: 766 CNY for Indian powder ore, 825 CNY for Australian PB powder, 866 CNY for Brazilian coarse powder [1] - Caofeidian Port: 766 CNY for Indian powder ore, 813 CNY for Australian PB powder, 847 CNY for Brazilian coarse powder [1] - Tianjin Port: 722 CNY for Indian powder ore, 806 CNY for Australian PB powder, 851 CNY for Brazilian coarse powder [1] - Qingdao Port: 746 CNY for Indian powder ore, 799 CNY for Australian PB powder, 844 CNY for Brazilian coarse powder [1] - Rizhao Port: 746 CNY for Indian powder ore, 799 CNY for Australian PB powder, 844 CNY for Brazilian coarse powder [1] Futures Market - On November 28, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 794.0 CNY per ton, with a daily trading volume of 252,881 contracts [2] Inventory and Production Data - As of November 28, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 1.06% to 159.01 million tons, the highest level in four years [3] - The profit margin for 247 steel mills decreased to 35.06%, the lowest since October of the previous year, down 16.89 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The average daily iron water output decreased by 16,000 tons to 234.68 million tons, while the average daily port discharge volume increased to 3.44 million tons, the highest since October [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Galaxy Futures, the current decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate the mid-term iron ore prices, with a continued increase in domestic iron element inventory [4]

Core Viewpoints - Iron ore futures showed a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 789.0 yuan and closing at 788.5 yuan, reflecting a 1.81% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Zhengxin Futures expects that there is still room for a price correction in iron ore [1] - Zhongcai Futures predicts that iron ore prices will experience fluctuations, with a strong supply and weak demand overall [2] - Donghai Futures anticipates that iron ore will be treated with a range-bound fluctuation approach in the short term [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Zhengxin Futures notes that while the supply has tightened recently, the demand for iron water production has rebounded, but the increase in production capacity is expected to be limited due to profit levels [1] - Zhongcai Futures highlights that the supply side has seen a decline in shipment and arrival volumes, but overall remains at a high level, with expectations of a slight increase in future shipments [2] - Donghai Futures reports a decrease in iron ore shipment volume by 1.448 million tons and a decrease in arrival volume by 4.772 million tons, indicating an oversupply in the market [3] Group 3: Inventory Trends - Zhengxin Futures indicates that port inventories are still accumulating due to increased arrivals, while steel mill inventories have shown a slight increase [1] - Zhongcai Futures mentions that steel mills are primarily purchasing based on demand, leading to a slight accumulation of port inventories [2] - Donghai Futures states that port inventories have increased by 1.9 million tons, reflecting an ongoing oversupply situation [3]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures prices are under pressure due to weak supply and demand fundamentals, with a recommendation for investors to avoid chasing high prices and maintain a low inventory strategy [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 14, 2025, iron ore futures closed at 772.5 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [1]. - The weekly trading range for iron ore futures was between 762.5 CNY/ton and 780.5 CNY/ton, with a lowest point of 756.5 CNY/ton [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Consumption - National steel mills' imported iron ore inventory reached 90.76 million tons, an increase of 660,700 tons week-on-week [2]. - The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 2.93 million tons, up by 39,300 tons from the previous week [2]. - The inventory-to-consumption ratio stands at 31.02 days, a decrease of 0.19 days [2]. Group 3: Transaction Data - On November 13, the total iron ore transactions at major ports reached 1.05 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.28% [2]. - The forward spot index for 62% Australian iron ore was 102.55 USD/dry ton, down by 0.05, with a monthly average of 102.72 [2]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - Guodu Futures noted that the recent U.S. government funding bill has ended a prolonged government shutdown, but the iron ore market remains under pressure due to declining shipments and production [2]. - CICC Wealth Futures indicated that while macro sentiment is improving, the long-term supply-demand balance remains loose, predicting limited rebound space for iron ore prices [3].