Core Insights - The iron ore market is experiencing slight price fluctuations, with current prices for major varieties around 800 CNY for 60.8% PB powder and 790-795 CNY for Mac powder [1] - The overall demand for steel in China is declining, which is expected to influence mid-term iron ore prices negatively [4] Price Summary - As of November 28, 2025, the main iron ore prices at various ports are as follows: - Jiangyin Port: 766 CNY for Indian powder ore, 825 CNY for Australian PB powder, 866 CNY for Brazilian coarse powder [1] - Caofeidian Port: 766 CNY for Indian powder ore, 813 CNY for Australian PB powder, 847 CNY for Brazilian coarse powder [1] - Tianjin Port: 722 CNY for Indian powder ore, 806 CNY for Australian PB powder, 851 CNY for Brazilian coarse powder [1] - Qingdao Port: 746 CNY for Indian powder ore, 799 CNY for Australian PB powder, 844 CNY for Brazilian coarse powder [1] - Rizhao Port: 746 CNY for Indian powder ore, 799 CNY for Australian PB powder, 844 CNY for Brazilian coarse powder [1] Futures Market - On November 28, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 794.0 CNY per ton, with a daily trading volume of 252,881 contracts [2] Inventory and Production Data - As of November 28, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 1.06% to 159.01 million tons, the highest level in four years [3] - The profit margin for 247 steel mills decreased to 35.06%, the lowest since October of the previous year, down 16.89 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The average daily iron water output decreased by 16,000 tons to 234.68 million tons, while the average daily port discharge volume increased to 3.44 million tons, the highest since October [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Galaxy Futures, the current decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate the mid-term iron ore prices, with a continued increase in domestic iron element inventory [4]

Core Viewpoints - Iron ore futures showed a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 789.0 yuan and closing at 788.5 yuan, reflecting a 1.81% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Zhengxin Futures expects that there is still room for a price correction in iron ore [1] - Zhongcai Futures predicts that iron ore prices will experience fluctuations, with a strong supply and weak demand overall [2] - Donghai Futures anticipates that iron ore will be treated with a range-bound fluctuation approach in the short term [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Zhengxin Futures notes that while the supply has tightened recently, the demand for iron water production has rebounded, but the increase in production capacity is expected to be limited due to profit levels [1] - Zhongcai Futures highlights that the supply side has seen a decline in shipment and arrival volumes, but overall remains at a high level, with expectations of a slight increase in future shipments [2] - Donghai Futures reports a decrease in iron ore shipment volume by 1.448 million tons and a decrease in arrival volume by 4.772 million tons, indicating an oversupply in the market [3] Group 3: Inventory Trends - Zhengxin Futures indicates that port inventories are still accumulating due to increased arrivals, while steel mill inventories have shown a slight increase [1] - Zhongcai Futures mentions that steel mills are primarily purchasing based on demand, leading to a slight accumulation of port inventories [2] - Donghai Futures states that port inventories have increased by 1.9 million tons, reflecting an ongoing oversupply situation [3]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures prices are under pressure due to weak supply and demand fundamentals, with a recommendation for investors to avoid chasing high prices and maintain a low inventory strategy [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 14, 2025, iron ore futures closed at 772.5 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [1]. - The weekly trading range for iron ore futures was between 762.5 CNY/ton and 780.5 CNY/ton, with a lowest point of 756.5 CNY/ton [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Consumption - National steel mills' imported iron ore inventory reached 90.76 million tons, an increase of 660,700 tons week-on-week [2]. - The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 2.93 million tons, up by 39,300 tons from the previous week [2]. - The inventory-to-consumption ratio stands at 31.02 days, a decrease of 0.19 days [2]. Group 3: Transaction Data - On November 13, the total iron ore transactions at major ports reached 1.05 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.28% [2]. - The forward spot index for 62% Australian iron ore was 102.55 USD/dry ton, down by 0.05, with a monthly average of 102.72 [2]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - Guodu Futures noted that the recent U.S. government funding bill has ended a prolonged government shutdown, but the iron ore market remains under pressure due to declining shipments and production [2]. - CICC Wealth Futures indicated that while macro sentiment is improving, the long-term supply-demand balance remains loose, predicting limited rebound space for iron ore prices [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 3.69%. Recently, the global iron ore shipment volume has increased month - on - month and is at a high level in the same period of the past three years. On the demand side, the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan have been temporarily lifted, and the national hot metal output may fluctuate slightly next week. On the inventory side, the iron ore inventory in 47 ports continues the trend of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the iron ore price may fluctuate weakly in the near future [4][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - In the first three quarters of this year, China's steel production decreased year - on - year, and the apparent consumption continued to decline. The cumulative national crude steel production in the first three quarters was 7.46 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. It is expected that the annual production will still decline year - on - year, achieving the crude steel production control target [13]. - The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control announced on September 29 for one year. China will suspend the implementation of relevant export control measures announced on October 9 for one year and will study and refine specific plans. The US will suspend the implementation of the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. After the US suspends the implementation of relevant measures, China will also suspend the implementation of counter - measures against the US for one year [13][14]. - A total of 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, which is expected to drive the total project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan [14]. - The "Henan Province Iron and Steel Industry Quality Improvement and Upgrading Action Plan" was issued, aiming to complete the technological transformation or elimination of steel production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level in the province by the end of 2025 and basically complete the ultra - low emission transformation of enterprises. By 2027, the industrial layout will be further optimized, and inefficient production capacity will be basically cleared [14]. 3.2 Supply - Side Situation - In September, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,633,000 tons, an increase of 1,111,000 tons from the previous month; the import average price was $96.95 per ton, an increase of $4.23 per ton from the previous month [18]. - As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 6,517,100 tons, an increase of 434,200 tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipment volume was 2,819,800 tons, a decrease of 415,900 tons from the first half of the month [22]. 3.3 Demand - Side Situation - The PMI of the steel industry in October 2025 was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%, ending the continuous two - month month - on - month decline, and the industry operation has recovered [30]. - Last week, the iron ore price continued to rise month - on - month. As of October 31, the 62% Australian powder forward price index was $106.3 per ton, a month - on - month increase of $2.3 per ton, with a growth rate of 2.21%. The iron ore price was in the range of $105 - $107 per ton last week, and the average price in October was $104.8 per ton [30]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - The total import iron ore inventory in 47 ports was 15,272,930 tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,440 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3,312,200 tons, an increase of 91,500 tons. The total import iron ore inventory in 45 ports was 14,542,480 tons, a month - on - month increase of 118,890 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3,201,600 tons, an increase of 75,100 tons; the number of ships at the port was 118, an increase of 11 [31]. - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.69%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33% and a year - on - year increase of 0.21%; the steel mill profitability rate was 45.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.02%; the daily average hot metal output was 236,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,540 tons [31]. 3.5 Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Pay attention to the upper pressure near 850 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: Long raw materials - short rebar arbitrage strategy. - Options: Wait and see [5][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The terminal demand is weak, and macro - level disturbances persist. Iron ore prices are under pressure and are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the support level of 760 - 765 yuan/ton [11][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The latest global iron ore shipment volume was 32.075 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 715,000 tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 27.31 million tons, a decrease of 949,000 tons. Australian shipments decreased by 636,000 tons to 19.163 million tons, of which those to China dropped by 767,000 tons to 15.845 million tons. Brazilian shipments decreased by 313,000 tons to 8.147 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 31.441 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.683 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 30.458 million tons, an increase of 4.371 million tons [13]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points [13]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 national ports was 149.6187 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.2079 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2932 million tons, a decrease of 1.222 million tons [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 73 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 15.64%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.36%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 72%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points. The scrap steel price in Tangshan was 2,205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in Zhangjiagang, it was 2,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous week; the PB powder import profit was - 22.84 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - Port Inventory: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 142.7827 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.5377 million tons. The pellet inventory was 261,790 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.00323 million tons, a decrease of 46,480 tons. The lump ore inventory was 1.78405 million tons, an increase of 53,750 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 58.6973 million tons, an increase of 893,000 tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 56.84 million tons, an increase of 1.4747 million tons [35][38][41]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 89.8273 million tons, a decrease of 634,600 tons from the previous week [45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Overseas Shipments: The latest volume of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 15.257 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 665,000 tons. Brazilian shipments were 8.125 million tons, a decrease of 126,000 tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 5.054 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 807,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 5.013 million tons, an increase of 602,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 6.007 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 3.429 million tons, a decrease of 223,000 tons [50][53][56]. - Arrival Volume and Domestic Supply: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 30.458 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.371 million tons. In August, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 16.899 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 622,700 tons. The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 60.66%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 473,700 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons [59][65]. 3.5 Demand Side - Production Indicators: The domestic daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points [70]. - Consumption Indicators: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1572 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.128 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9735 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 179,000 tons [73]. 3.6 Basis As of October 17, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 63.71 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 7.63% [78].

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On October 14, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract fluctuated upward, closing at 795 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. During the negotiation between Sinomine Resource Group and BHP, the market's risk aversion sentiment supported the iron ore price. If the rumor is confirmed, combined with the recent escalation of Sino-US tariff disputes in the macro market, the price may fluctuate weakly, but it is expected to remain within the oscillation range since August. The subsequent repair of downstream demand needs to be closely monitored [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 14, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract fluctuated upward, opening higher and then moving in a volatile manner, closing at 795 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. The main iron ore outer - disk quotes rose by 1.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port rose by 5 - 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and J values continuing to rise and the D value continuing to fall, showing a golden - cross trend. The green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract narrowed for two consecutive trading days [7][9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: There are reports that Sinomine Resource Group has suspended the purchase of imported iron ore produced by BHP priced in US dollars, and there are rumors that BHP has agreed to fulfill long - term contracts priced in RMB. During the negotiation stage, the supply uncertainty has given a certain boost to the ore price. If the rumor is confirmed, China's bargaining power over the ore price will be further enhanced, and the market sentiment may decline. - Fundamentals: In September, the shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil both increased, partly due to the end - of - quarter volume rush. Considering the regular decline after the end - of - quarter volume rush, the shipments in October are expected to decline. The arrivals last week increased significantly and are expected to gradually decline. On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output is still at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons but has declined slightly for three consecutive weeks. Considering the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, the profits of rebar blast furnaces, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and electric furnaces have all fallen into the loss state. The subsequent output growth space is limited, and it may oscillate and decline at around 2.4 million tons in the short term. After the festival, the production and demand data of the five major steel products declined significantly, especially the demand for construction steel may have been affected by the holiday lag, and the subsequent demand repair situation needs to be observed. In terms of inventory, steel mills increased their pre - festival replenishment efforts, and the iron ore inventory of steel mills continued to grow, which is expected to gradually decline after the festival and return to the state of on - demand replenishment. [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - The central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method on October 14, with an operating rate of 1.40%, a bid volume of 91 billion yuan, and a winning bid volume of 91 billion yuan. There were no reverse repurchase maturities on that day, resulting in a net investment of 91 billion yuan. - The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce responded to the recent US announcement of additional tariffs and other restrictive measures on China, stating that China's stance on the tariff war and trade war is consistent. China is ready to fight to the end if necessary and is also open to talks. China and the US have extensive common interests and broad cooperation space, and cooperation benefits both sides while confrontation harms both. The two sides have always maintained communication under the framework of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism and had a working - level meeting the previous day. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Administrative Measures for Special Central Budgetary Investment in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction", which mentioned supporting energy - saving and carbon - reduction projects in key industries such as power, steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, chemicals, and machinery, as well as energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations of infrastructure such as heating and computing power, and energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations of central and state organs. [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals of iron ore at 45 ports, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports, the available days of iron ore inventory in steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the inventory and port clearance volume of iron ore at ports, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][18][22].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its iron ore price forecast, with short-term price increases driven by price expectations and market sentiment rather than actual steel demand growth [1][2] - The most active iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange reached 777.5 RMB per ton (approximately 108.70 USD), while the Singapore iron ore benchmark price slightly increased to 103.1 USD per ton [1] - Goldman Sachs adjusted its fourth-quarter iron ore price target from 90 USD to 95 USD, temporarily boosting investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - Despite the short-term price increase, industry experts remain cautious, noting that actual demand from steel producers has not significantly rebounded [1][2] - Temporary environmental production restrictions in Tangshan, China, have led to a decline in steel output, suppressing real consumption demand for iron ore [1] - The lifting of production restrictions after September 4 is expected to provide new growth momentum for iron ore demand [1] Group 3 - The current price surge may quickly lose momentum unless steel production rebounds [2] - The Chinese steel industry is a key indicator for global commodity demand, and government interventions significantly impact the market [2] - Future iron ore price trends will depend on three key factors: the pace of China's economic recovery, changes in global construction demand, and new trends in energy and infrastructure spending [2]

Group 1: Company Overview - The company is named Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd., with stock code 001203 and bond code 127070 [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Relations Activity - The investor relations activity was held on August 21, 2025, via Tencent Meeting, with participation from various securities firms and funds [2]. - Key company representatives included Chairman Niu Guofeng, CFO Zou Qingli, and Secretary of the Board Lin Puzheng [2]. Group 3: Lithium Mining Progress - The company is progressing with the mining license for the Hunan Jijiao Mountain lithium mine, with the application currently under review by the Ministry of Natural Resources [2][5]. - The company plans to complete the first phase of the Hunan lithium mine project, with a capacity of 20,000 tons, by 2026 [5]. - The Sichuan Jiada lithium mine has an estimated lithium equivalent of 148.42 thousand tons, exceeding expectations, with drilling completed over 15,100 meters and a 95% discovery rate [6]. Group 4: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.972 billion CNY, with iron concentrate contributing 1.402 billion CNY and pellets 404 million CNY [4]. - Net profit for the same period was 406 million CNY, a decrease of 12.32% year-on-year, attributed to a 14.53% drop in the Platts index [4]. - The average selling price of iron concentrate was 827 CNY/ton, down 11.61% year-on-year, but still outperforming market benchmarks [4]. Group 5: Cost Management and Production - The company has successfully completed the pilot test of the sulfuric acid lithium extraction process, addressing key equipment and process issues [3][7]. - The production cost advantages from by-products like potassium sulfate and hydrofluoric acid are being evaluated, with potential revenue to offset production costs [7]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to remain stable, supported by national infrastructure projects, despite potential impacts from the commissioning of the Ximangdu iron mine [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated upwards with a daily increase of 2.32%, and the volume and open interest expanded. With both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level, with few real - world contradictions. Coupled with the strong cost support from raw materials, it is expected that the rebar price will continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to domestic policies [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil strengthened, with a daily increase of 1.98%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Currently, both the supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, and the fundamentals have weakened again. There is a slight inventory build - up, but the overall contradiction is not significant. The strong raw materials boost market sentiment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 1.11%. The volume increased while the open interest decreased. Currently, market sentiment has stabilized. Coupled with the suppression of high coking coal prices, the iron ore price has fallen from its high level. However, with supply being weak and demand being strong, the fundamentals of iron ore are still acceptable, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to oscillate and consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 1.41271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The expenditure on social security and employment increased by 9.2% year - on - year, science and technology expenditure increased by 9.1% year - on - year, education expenditure increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and health expenditure increased by 4.3% year - on - year. The national general public budget revenue was 1.15566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. National tax revenue was 929.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.2%, and non - tax revenue was 226.51 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - ins. The "Two New" policy system and working mechanism are continuously improving. The State Council has issued an action plan, and the National Development and Reform Commission has issued support measures and expansion policies, and established an inter - ministerial joint meeting system [7]. - In the second quarter of 2025, FMG's iron ore production was 5.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual production in fiscal year 2025 reached 201 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The shipping volume in the second quarter was 5.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. The annual shipping volume in fiscal year 2025 reached 198 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The shipping target for fiscal year 2026 is 195 - 205 million tons [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,400 yuan, 3,360 yuan, and 3,463 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,470 yuan, 3,440 yuan, and 3,514 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,130 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 70 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,260 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 784 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 748 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia was 10.40 yuan, and from Brazil was 24.18 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 100.01 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.50 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,356 | 2.32 | 3,358 | 3,288 | 2,878,137 | 344,884 | 1,998,652 | 92,300 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,507 | 1.98 | 3,508 | 3,452 | 995,111 | 142,246 | 1,554,563 | 46,781 | | Iron Ore | - | 802.5 | - 1.11 | 815.5 | 790.0 | 533,058 | 134,404 | 528,991 | - 33,844 | [11] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories [13][14][16]. - Charts on steel mill production conditions are also included, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [27][29][32]. 3.5后市研判 - Rebar: Supply has increased with a weekly output increase of 2.90 tons, and there is room for further increase. Demand has improved with a weekly apparent demand increase of 10.41 tons, mainly due to speculative demand. However, both supply and demand are still at low levels in recent years, and the sustainability of demand improvement is weak. With low inventory and strong raw material cost support, the rebar price is expected to continue to operate at a high level. Attention should be paid to policy changes [35]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output has decreased by 3.65 tons, and the weekly apparent demand has decreased by 8.55 tons. Although high - frequency trading is good due to speculative demand, and downstream cold - rolled production is high, the narrowing internal - external price spread and potential tariff disturbances may lead to overseas demand risks. The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [36]. - Iron Ore: The terminal consumption of iron ore has declined slightly, but the demand is still resilient due to the good profitability of steel mills. The arrival at domestic ports has decreased, and the short - term overseas supply is low. However, the shipping of overseas miners is increasing, and the domestic supply is also stable with a slight increase. With stable market sentiment and the suppression of high coking coal prices, the iron ore price has fallen from its high level. It is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [37].

Core Viewpoint - The futures market for iron ore shows mixed signals, with Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore futures declining while Singapore iron ore futures are rising, indicating potential volatility in pricing due to contrasting market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore futures have experienced a decline [1] - Singapore iron ore futures have seen an increase [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Mining shipments have reached record levels, suggesting strong supply [1] - Steel mill inventories are on the rise, indicating potential oversupply or reduced demand [1] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - The contrasting trends in futures prices and inventory levels raise questions about the future trajectory of iron ore prices [1]