Report Industry Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it should be treated bearishly [4] Core View of the Report - In the short term, macro disturbances weaken, trading focus returns to strong reality and weak expectations. Demand shows a downward trend overall, and the expected growth rate of supply (arrival) is expected to expand. It is predicted that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, lacking obvious upward drivers [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Recently, the trading focus of the black - series market is still dominated by the pessimistic expectation of terminal demand. The apparent demand of finished products shows off - season characteristics. Carbon elements continue to give benefits to iron elements. The profit of blast furnaces has not been significantly compressed due to the decline in finished product prices but has instead expanded. The valley - electricity of short - process steelmaking is in a large - scale loss, and the demand for iron ore remains resilient [3] Supply - The shipment of foreign mines increased slightly this period. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly, with a significant increase in Australian shipments, while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. June is the peak season for foreign mine shipments. Coupled with the fiscal - year volume - rushing of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that foreign mine shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from a high level but remains at a high level. Hot metal production has declined for four consecutive weeks, but the decline rate has narrowed. The current level of steel mill profitability is relatively high. It is expected that hot metal production will show an overall downward trend at a high level, but the downward slope will be relatively gentle, and high demand supports prices [3] Inventory - Currently, steel mills maintain low - inventory management, and the inventory - to - sales ratio has decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Domestic demand is still relatively high, and port inventories are continuously decreasing in the short term. As the arrival volume increases, it is expected that port inventories will accumulate slightly or remain relatively stable in the later stage. Due to the weak market expectation for demand, the expectation of restocking is weak [3]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 铁矿石：需求预期羸弱，价格面临下行风险 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 702. 0 | -5.0 | -0.71% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 714. 423 | -1,831 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 卡粉 (65%) | 828. 0 | 833. 0 | -5. 0 | | | 进口矿 | PB (61.5%) | 735.0 | 740. 0 | -5.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴(61%) | 690. 0 | 695. 0 | -5.0 | | | | 超特 (56.5%) | 620. 0 | 623. 0 | -3.0 | | | 国产矿 | 邮那 (66%) | 932. 0 | 932. 0 | 0. 0 | ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing strong supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of continued price support due to declining inventory levels and high production rates in steel mills [2][3]. Group 1: Inventory and Supply - As of May 19, China's iron ore inventory at 47 ports totaled 146.2763 million tons, a decrease of 2.5825 million tons from the previous week [1] - The inventory at 45 ports was 140.5563 million tons, down by 2.8525 million tons [1] - During the period from May 12 to May 18, iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased to 13.763 million tons, up by 0.696 million tons [1] - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil during the same period reached 27.061 million tons, an increase of 2.836 million tons [1] - China's iron ore arrivals at 45 ports totaled 22.713 million tons, a decrease of 0.833 million tons [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Demand for iron ore remains robust due to improved profitability in steel mills and the ongoing production peak season, maintaining high levels of iron output [2] - The supply side has seen a significant rebound in overseas mining shipments, with a notable year-on-year increase, indicating a high supply level [2] - Continuous decline in port and steel mill iron ore inventories is alleviating inventory pressure [2] - Despite the current high iron output, there is a consensus that a decline in production is likely, leading to market uncertainty regarding the path of this decline [3] - The second quarter is traditionally a peak season for iron ore shipments, suggesting potential increases in both shipment and arrival volumes [3]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 如何展望铁矿石的价格？ 报告要点 去年四季度以来，焦煤价格的弱化，致使钢材的购销价差走扩，大部分钢企的盈利明显好转。然 [Table_Summary] 而，同为原料的铁矿石，在产业链延续了强势地位，价格的走势也是偏强的。作为 2019 年以来一 直延续强势的品种，铁矿未来的强势地位还能延续吗？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 2）铁水见顶回落，关注淡季减产——随着淡季效应来临，铁水产量高位回落。样本 钢企日均铁水产量降至 244.77 万吨，环比-0.87 万吨/天。五大钢材产量环比-0.49%， 同比-2.14%。关注进入淡季后，在行业自律+调控预期下，铁水减产的节奏。 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 如何展望铁矿石的价格？ ...

Market Overview - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 national ports is 141.66 million tons, a decrease of 726,200 tons month-on-month [1] - The average daily dispatch volume is 3.24 million tons, an increase of 86,800 tons [1] - The number of vessels in port is 83, an increase of 4 [1] Trading Activity - On May 15, the total iron ore transaction at major national ports was 1.007 million tons, a decrease of 18.33% month-on-month [2] - The forward spot transaction was 1.56 million tons on the same day [2] - Shipping costs from Western Australia to China are $7.38 per ton, an increase of $0.03 per ton; from Brazil to China, the cost is $18.3 per ton, an increase of $0.18 per ton [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - According to Everbright Futures, global shipping volume has slightly decreased, with Australian port repairs reducing, leading to a slight recovery in shipping volume, while Brazilian shipping volume has significantly decreased [3] - The demand side shows one new blast furnace resuming production and four undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in pig iron production by 8,700 tons to 2.4477 million tons [3] - Current iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 147.47 million tons, a decrease of 177,200 tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 21,800 tons to 8.961 million tons [3] Future Outlook - According to Shenyin Wanguo Futures, the raw material supply is expected to remain weak, but there is still room for pig iron production to increase, supported by steel mill profits and strong resumption momentum [4] - Recent global iron ore shipments have decreased, mainly due to disruptions in Australian shipments, with rapid inventory depletion at ports [4] - Mid-term supply-demand imbalance pressure is significant, with expected growth in iron ore shipments in the second half of the year, while short-term lacks clear driving forces [4]

铁矿石需警惕利空因素与价格 下跌趋势形成自我强化 作者：曹有明 从业资格号：F3038998 交易咨询号：Z0013162 邮箱：caoyouming@sd-gold.com 2025年5月12日星期一 ——山金期货铁矿石专题报告 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 数据来源：iFinD、山金期货投资咨询部 p 铁矿石期货价格已经跌至长期上行趋势线附近，如果期价继续下跌，很有可能形成向下的有效突破，将打 开下行空间。最近几个月价格下跌的过程中，持仓量不断增加。整体形势对多头很不利。 p 供应：随着南半球天气的好转，巴西和澳洲发运量已经回到正常的水平，且未来一段时间，发运量将继续 呈现季节性增加态势，国内到港量也将延续季节性增加的趋势，国内矿山的产量和库存在增加。 p 需求：目前样本钢厂铁水产量已经大幅高于去年同期，且高于去年的峰值水平。在整体需求预期偏弱的情 况下，如此高的铁水产量很难持续，预计今年铁水产量的峰值已经到来，后期下降的预期强烈，这意味着 今年铁矿石的需求高峰期已至，后市铁矿石需求回落概率大。另外，终端需求方面，上周钢材表观需求大 幅回落，今年的出口数据好于预期，但整体增幅在贸易战背景 ...