Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In November, global iron ore supply and demand will both decline, with a static tight supply - demand situation. The price movement is dynamic. The weak supply - demand pattern in the finished product segment continues, and steel mill profits are compressed. Attention should be paid to the decline in hot metal production in November. If the daily average production remains below 235,000 tons, there may be a negative feedback market. If the hot metal production remains high, ore prices will remain firm [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review In October, the prices of iron ore futures and spot goods fluctuated strongly. As of October 30, the futures price of the main contract increased by 22 yuan/ton month - on - month [3][5]. 3.2 Iron Ore Market Analysis - **Supply Side** - Four major mines are expected to reduce shipments by about 7.6 million tons in November compared to the previous month [6][29][35]. - Global non - mainstream shipments are relatively stable, with an estimated 44.6 million tons in November, a decrease of about 1.75 million tons month - on - month [6][32][35]. - Domestic mine production is expected to be 19.95 million tons in November, a decrease of 650,000 tons month - on - month [6][34][35]. - Overall, global supply will decrease by about 10 million tons in November [6][35]. - **Demand Side** - In October, China's national pig iron production is estimated to be 74.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.16%. In November, blast furnace hot metal production is expected to be 71.4 million tons, a decrease of 3.35 million tons month - on - month, resulting in a reduction of 5.88 million tons in iron ore demand [6][17][21]. - Outside China, the daily average pig iron production is stable for now. In November, pig iron production is estimated to decrease by 30,000 tons, resulting in a reduction of about 490,000 tons in the demand for 61% grade iron ore [6][20][21]. - Globally, iron ore demand will decrease by about 6.37 million tons in November [6][21]. 3.3 Steel Mill Profit Blast furnace profits are compressed, and electric furnace losses are expanding. As of the end of October, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, a year - on - year increase of 2.57 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a year - on - year increase of 1.46 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a year - on - year decrease of 17.32 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 239,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28,300 tons [8][14]. 3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - Port inventory: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 145 million tons, an increase of 5 million tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [36]. - Steel mill inventory: Steel mill inventory is close to the critical value, and there is a certain need for replenishment [38].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Supply remains high, downstream profits have significantly declined, and demand may continue to decline. However, downstream finished product inventories are still being reduced. In the short term, futures prices may remain strong, but there is a possibility of weakening [3]. - The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short term [3]. - The trading volume of iron ore spot has increased, while the trading volume of forward contracts has declined from a high level. The basis rate of the 01 contract is around 4.6%, the basis has slightly declined, and the basis rate has decreased [3]. - This week, the iron ore output of 247 samples announced by Steel Union was 239.9 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.05 tons. The average daily iron ore output in October was about 239.9 tons. Short-term demand has slightly decreased, and iron ore output may decline slowly [3]. - The inventory of 45 ports has increased by 139 tons week-on-week, and the proportion of trade ore is 64.1%. The total inventory of imported ore by steel mills has increased by 97 tons, the inventory at the plant has decreased by 36 tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory has increased by 133 tons. The available days of imported ore have remained unchanged at 20 days [3]. - The profits of finished products have continued to decline significantly; the price difference between scrap iron in Tangshan has decreased; the proportion of lump ore in the furnace has slightly decreased, the proportion of pellet ore in the furnace has decreased; and the proportion of sinter in the furnace has continued to increase [3]. - The average value of the MA index in October was 104, corresponding to a disk valuation of about 822 [3]. - The premium of Jinbabu powder has weakened; the premiums of mainstream medium - and low - grade ores have remained stable; and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores has remained stable [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - On October 26, 2025, the 7 - day moving average shipment volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4,655 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.89%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume of Australia was 2,751 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume of Brazil was 1,196 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [24]. - According to the iron ore balance sheet, the total supply in 2025/10 was 13,237, with production of 2,529 and imports of 10,708. Exports were 147. The total supply cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 0.1% [181]. Demand - The iron ore output of 247 samples was 239.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 tons. The average daily iron ore output in October was about 239.9 tons. Short - term demand has slightly decreased, and iron ore output may decline slowly [3]. - According to the balance sheet, the consumption in 2025/10 was 12,081, and the total consumption was 12,229 [181]. Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports increased by 139 tons week - on - week, and the proportion of trade ore was 64.1%. The total inventory of imported ore by steel mills increased by 97 tons, the inventory at the plant decreased by 36 tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory increased by 133 tons. The available days of imported ore remained unchanged at 20 days [3]. Price and Basis - The basis rate of the 01 contract is around 4.6%, the basis has slightly declined, and the basis rate has decreased. The 1 - 5 monthly spread has shown a narrow - range oscillation [3][158]. - The prices of various iron ore varieties in the spot market have changed to different degrees. For example, on October 27, 2025, the price of PB powder was 791 yuan/wet ton, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4 [160]. Market Outlook - Supply remains high, downstream profits have significantly declined, and demand may continue to decline. However, downstream finished product inventories are still being reduced. In the short term, futures prices may remain strong, but there is a possibility of weakening [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply of iron ore is rising, demand is declining, downstream profits are weakening, and after continuous inventory accumulation, futures prices may face downward pressure. The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short term, and the spot trading volume has increased. Iron water production may have reached its peak and is expected to decline. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Global iron ore shipments have increased, with shipments from Australia rising and those from Brazil recovering, while shipments from non - mainstream regions are weak. As of October 12, 2025, the 7 - day moving average shipment volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4,550 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.35% and a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. Australian 7 - day moving average shipment volume was 2,816 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. Brazilian 7 - day moving average shipment volume was 934.9 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 24.5% and a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. [3][24] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 samples decreased by 0.31 tons week - on - week to 241.54 tons. The average daily molten iron production in October was about 241 tons. With more recent overhauls, the molten iron production may have reached its peak and is expected to decline. The profit of finished steel products continued to decline slightly, and the scrap - iron price difference in Tangshan decreased. [3] Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports increased by 232,400 tons week - on - week, and the proportion of traded ore was 65.23%. The total inventory of imported ore in steel mills decreased by 9.9 million tons, with the plant inventory decreasing by 2.8712 million tons and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory decreasing by 7.0348 million tons. The available days of imported ore decreased by 3 days to 21 days. The total inventory of the five major steel products increased, with the inventory of rebar increasing and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increasing significantly. [3] Price and Basis - The trading volume of iron ore spot and forward contracts increased significantly. The basis rate of the 01 contract was about 4%, with a slight increase in the basis and an upward basis rate. The 1 - 5 monthly spread fluctuated within a narrow range. [3][158] Variety Differences - The premium of Jinbabu powder weakened, the premiums of mainstream medium - low - grade ores were stable, and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores decreased. [3] Balance Sheet - The total supply of iron ore from 2025/1 to 2026/5 shows certain fluctuations, with production and imports being the main sources. Exports and consumption also vary in different months. There are periods of surplus and deficit. Although the molten iron production is expected to decline, the current level is still relatively high, and the recent consumption is slightly adjusted upwards. [181]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Static calculations suggest that China's iron ore imports in 2025 may first decrease and then increase, with a year - on - year reduction of 8.08 million tons (-0.5%) to 1.228 billion tons. The new production capacity of mines in Australia and Brazil is expanding more slowly than expected, and events such as abnormal weather significantly affect shipments. Shipments are expected to improve in the fourth quarter. The total supply will decrease by 7.95 million tons (-0.51%) to 1.525 billion tons. [5][102] - In terms of demand, in 2025, the decline in the real estate sector in China will slow down, infrastructure investment will show positive year - on - year growth, and the manufacturing industry will continue to improve. The annual iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.496 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 55.52 million tons (+3.85%). Overseas, the pig iron production in major iron ore - importing countries is expected to decline slightly, while India's steel demand will continue to be strong. [5][102] - As of early September 2025, the inventory at 45 ports was 138 million tons. Although the mine production capacity is slowly expanding in 2025, unexpected events such as abnormal weather have a large impact on shipments. The demand growth is resilient, and hot metal production shows the characteristic of "no off - season". Static calculations indicate that the iron ore supply - demand situation is moving towards a looser state, and there is a high possibility of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, but short - term supply - demand tightness may still occur. [5][102] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Global Shipment: From January to August 2025, the global daily average shipment was 4.28 million tons/day, a 0.5% decrease compared to 4.3 million tons/day in the same period of the previous year. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly in the first quarter due to weather effects and then recovered to the previous year's level. The shipments from non - mainstream regions have been consistently low in recent years. [10] - Australia: From January to August 2025, Australia's global average daily shipment was 2.476 million tons/day, a 0.69% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The average daily shipment to China was 2.082 million tons/day, a 1.86% increase. The main production capacity increments in Australia in 2025 come from the Western Range (officially put into production on June 6, 2025) and the Onslow project (the capacity launch may be delayed until September due to road upgrades). If the weather remains normal, the iron ore shipments in the fourth quarter may maintain a certain increment. [13] - Major Australian Companies: - Rio Tinto: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 804,000 tons/day, a 2.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The Western Range project, which was fully put into production on June 6, 2025, is the main source of production capacity increment, but due to weather effects, the annual shipment target is affected. [17] - BHP: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 791,000 tons/day, a 1.28% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In the 2025 fiscal year (July 2024 - June 2025), BHP's 100% equity production reached 29 million tons, a record high. The South Flank mine may be the main source of increment, with a stable annual production capacity of 80 million tons in the 2025 fiscal year. It is expected that BHP will achieve a high - level production in 2025, and there will be no new projects put into production in the fourth quarter. [22] - FMG: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 517,000 tons/day, a 4.87% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In the 2025 fiscal year, the target range was broadened to 190 - 202 million tons. The Iron Bridge project was originally scheduled to reach full production in September 2025 but has been postponed to the 2028 fiscal year. [27] - Brazil: From January to August 2025, Brazil's average daily shipment was 1.0391 million tons/day, a 2.2% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. Vale's average daily shipment was 951,600 tons/day, a 1.02% decrease compared to the same period in the previous year. In the first half of 2025, Vale's total production was 151 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease. The production in 2025 is expected to be close to the lower limit of the target (about 325 million tons) mainly due to the licensing issues in the Serra Norte mining area restricting the increment. The Capanema project is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2025, adding 15 million tons of production capacity. The S11D +20 mining area is expected to release production capacity in 2026. [31] - Non - mainstream Regions: In 2025, the iron ore shipments from India decreased significantly, while Canada increased its exports due to cost reduction through new technologies, and South Africa's export increment was mainly due to the optimization of railway transportation capacity. From January to August 2025, Canada's average daily shipment was 164,500 tons/day, a 5.85% year - on - year increase, and South Africa's average daily shipment was 152,300 tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. [36][41] - China's Domestic Production: In the first seven months of 2025, China's cumulative iron ore production decreased by 3.28% year - on - year. In the fourth quarter, production is expected to recover, and the domestic iron concentrate powder production in 2025 is expected to increase by 0.05% year - on - year to 297 million tons. Some new production capacities (such as the first - phase project of Liaoning Sishanling Iron Mine and Hebei Macheng Iron Mine) have been postponed, and safety and environmental inspections in Northeast and North China have led to the phased shutdown of small and medium - sized mines. [5][51] Demand - Domestic: In 2025, the decline in the real estate sector will slow down, infrastructure investment will show positive year - on - year growth, and the manufacturing industry will continue to improve. The annual iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.496 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 55.52 million tons (+3.85%). From January to July 2025, the estimated pig iron production was 617 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.32%. The estimated pig iron production in 2025 is 920 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.65%. [5][73] - Overseas: From January to July 2025, overseas pig iron production was 234 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%. Among the main overseas regions, India's pig iron production continued to grow at a high rate of 7.05%, while the pig iron production in other major steel - producing countries mainly declined. [56] Inventory - Port Inventory: In the first half of 2025, due to the decline in overseas shipments and unexpected demand, the iron ore inventory at ports decreased significantly. As of September 2025, the total inventory in the iron ore industry chain decreased by about 13.6 million tons compared to the end of 2024 to 192 million tons. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, with the release of new production capacities and the slow decline in downstream demand, the downward trend of iron ore inventory may be reversed. [86] - Variety - specific Inventory: Based on data from 15 major ports, while the total inventory is slowly decreasing, there is significant differentiation among varieties. The inventory of Brazilian ore first decreased and then increased, and the inventory of Australian ore has recently decreased significantly. The inventory of low - grade ore has decreased significantly, the overall level of medium - grade ore has increased, and the inventory of PB fines has started to reach a high level. [90] Price - In the absence of obvious incremental expectations for pig iron demand in major overseas countries and in China, the iron ore supply - demand balance will be achieved through price cuts and shipment reductions, and the cost support around $80 - 85 per ton is relatively strong. [94]

Core Viewpoint - The black metal sector has collectively rebounded, with iron ore prices influenced by supply and demand dynamics, while short-term demand for iron ore is expected to struggle to maintain previous high levels due to steel mill profit margins returning to breakeven levels [1] Supply Analysis - Iron ore supply expectations remain unchanged, with a recovery in production in North China driving an increase in molten iron output [1] - External iron ore shipments have increased month-on-month, reaching a new high for the year, with significant recoveries from Australia, Brazil, and non-mainstream mines [1] - The arrival volume at ports is slightly higher than the same period last year, indicating that supply-side pressure will gradually manifest as high shipment volumes continue to arrive [1] Demand Analysis - Domestic demand has rebounded to previous levels following the end of environmental production restrictions in North China [1] - The average daily molten iron production is reported at 240.55 thousand tons, with steel mill profitability still at a near five-year historical high despite a continuous decline [1] - As the National Day holiday approaches, steel mills are expected to have concentrated restocking needs, which may support iron ore prices in the short term [1] Inventory Insights - Steel mill daily consumption has increased due to production recovery in multiple regions, leading to a slight increase in inventory, although still below last year's levels [1] - Port inventories continue to show a slight increase, with a significant rise in port throughput following the lifting of environmental restrictions, while domestic pre-holiday restocking is expected to drive inventory down [1] Market Outlook - The market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with trading focus shifting towards real market conditions [1] - Short-term iron ore supply is steadily recovering, while demand is retreating from high levels; the medium-term supply-demand balance is shifting from tight to balanced, but pre-holiday restocking demand is expected to support prices [1] - Iron ore prices are anticipated to fluctuate within a range of 790 to 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to 105 to 108 USD/ton in the external market, with an operational strategy of range trading and covered call options [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship shifts from tight - balance to balance, and the short - term price will follow the sector's trend. The short - term market focuses more on industrial fundamentals, with positive external macro factors and domestic policies in the reserve stage, still having expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Supply - External ore shipments have rebounded more than expected. Australian shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazilian shipments have reached a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and tends to rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). Steel mills have a high profitability rate and relatively good blast furnace profits, while the short - process steelmaking is in full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether pig iron production can maintain a high - level upward trend and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2][3]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has continued to rise month - on - month and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated. In the future, as the arrival volume decreases and pig iron production remains high, the short - term inventory is expected to remain stable or decline slightly [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship is shifting from balanced and tight to balanced. Short - term interval operation is recommended. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore runs in the range of 775 - 805 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market price of about 101 - 105 US dollars/ton [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The rebound of foreign ore shipments exceeds expectations. Australia's shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipments reach a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and is generally on the rise, and the marginal support on the supply side is weakening [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly. The current daily average molten iron output is 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). The current profitability rate of steel mills is high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively considerable, while the short - process steelmaking has fallen into full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the molten iron output can maintain a high - level upward trend and the military parade production - restriction situation in North China [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at the steel mill end remains high, and the inventory at the steel mill end has continued to increase month - on - month and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in the arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated this period. In the future, as the arrival volume decreases and the molten iron output remains high, it is expected that the inventory will generally tend to be stable or decline slightly in the short term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The sentiment in the iron ore market has declined, leading to a downward adjustment in a volatile manner. The previous significant increase in the valuation of the black - sector under the support of theme trading and macro - policy expectations might have been an over - rise. Considering the relatively limited marginal changes in fundamentals, the recent decline in sentiment has caused the iron ore price to fall [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Overseas shipments continued to recover, with the increase in the recent week mainly coming from Australia. The global shipment volume was 3200.9 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 91.8 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 181.9 million tons. Australian shipments were 1793.5 million tons, up 222.3 million tons week - on - week and 225.3 million tons year - on - year. Brazilian shipments were 884.3 million tons, down 23.5 million tons week - on - week and 35.1 million tons year - on - year [4][5]. - Among Australian shipments, FMG contributed the main increase in shipments to China, with a week - on - week increase of 84.9 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 170.4 million tons. Vale's global shipments decreased by 46.8 million tons week - on - week and 96.8 million tons year - on - year [4]. - In terms of non - mainstream mines, Peru's shipments recovered poorly. In the domestic market, the operating rate in North China declined significantly recently [20][27]. 3.2 Demand - The downstream iron - making production slightly decreased, with the 247 - enterprise hot metal output at 240.71 million tons, down 1.52 million tons week - on - week but up 1.10 million tons year - on - year. The output of the five major steel products still had a large year - on - year increase [4][30]. - The arrival of scrap steel increased recently, but the scrap steel price remained basically flat week - on - week. The scrap - iron price difference continued to narrow, but the narrowing slope slowed down [31]. 3.3 Contract Performance The price of the main 09 contract was volatile and weak, closing at 783.0 yuan/ton. The open interest was 410,000 lots, a decrease of 119,000 lots. The average daily trading volume was 369,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 150,000 lots [7]. 3.4 Spot Price Performance The spot price basically followed the futures market, showing a phased peak - to - trough decline. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) at Qingdao Port dropped from 882 yuan/ton last week to 870 yuan/ton this week [11]. 3.5 Inventory - The inflection point of port inventory had not arrived yet. The inventory of imported ores at 45 ports was 13,657.9 million tons, down 132.5 million tons week - on - week and 1386.1 million tons year - on - year [4][35]. - Due to production - increasing demand and the decline in Indian shipments, the pellet inventory continued to be depleted [36]. 3.6 Downstream Profit The profit of finished steel products reached a high and then declined, including the spot profit of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and the disk profit of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts [38]. 3.7 Spot Category Price Difference The price of imported ores continued to decline, and the price difference between domestic and imported ores further widened [40]. 3.8 Futures Monthly Spread - The 09 - 01 monthly spread closed at 26 yuan/ton this week, narrowing week - on - week. - The 01 - 05 monthly spread closed at 23.5 yuan/ton this week, widening week - on - week [47]. 3.9 Basis Performance The decline of the spot and futures prices was comparable this week, and the basis remained basically flat week - on - week [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The latest overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with a significant increase in FMG shipments driving up Australia's overall shipments, while Brazil's shipments declined slightly, and non - mainstream countries' shipments dropped to a relatively low level for the year. Daily hot metal production decreased slightly due to production issues at some steel mills. Port inventories decreased, and steel mills' imported ore inventories increased slightly. - From a fundamental perspective, the steel mill profitability rate remains at a high level, and there is no obvious downward pressure on hot metal production, so demand support still exists. The overall growth on the supply side is limited, and iron ore port inventories are trending downward. - Iron ore prices are affected by domestic commodity policy expectations, downstream profits, and commodity sentiment. After the important meeting in July, the released content was basically in line with expectations, and some aspects were slightly below expectations. In the short term, the overall commodities may be adjusted, and iron ore is expected to fluctuate with downstream prices, mainly in a volatile state. Market divergence still exists, and risk control should be noted. [11][13][14] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments totaled 32.009 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 918,000 tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 27.559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.039 million tons. Australia's shipments were 18.596 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.302 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 15.504 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.068 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.964 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 262,000 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 23.197 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.921 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 22.405 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.307 million tons. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal production was 2.4071 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,000 tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, unchanged from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 142.2201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7367 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1791 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.142 million tons. [11][13][14] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: The PB - Super Special powder spread was 125 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder spread was 102 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 2.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder spread was 144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was - 11.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 1.5 yuan/ton. - **Input Ratios and Scrap Steel**: The pellet input ratio was 15.22%, unchanged from the previous period. The lump ore input ratio was 12.25%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points. The sinter input ratio was 72.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,245 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. - **Profits**: The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points; the import profit of PB powder was - 1.69 yuan/wet ton. [16][19][22] 3. Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.579 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3248 million tons. The pellet inventory was 380,140 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,150 tons. - The port inventory of iron concentrate powder was 1.06708 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,420 tons. The port inventory of lump ore was 1.71706 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,560 tons. - The port inventory of Australian ore was 59.9685 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.964 million tons. The port inventory of Brazilian ore was 48.4307 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 644,700 tons. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 90.1209 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.2687 million tons. [32][35][38][41][46] 4. Supply Side - **19 - Port Data**: The volume of Australian ore shipped to China through 19 ports was 14.894 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.04 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.843 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 235,000 tons. - **Major Miners**: Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 4.898 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 327,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 4.963 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 363,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 6.388 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 468,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 3.639 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 849,000 tons. - **Arrival and Import Data**: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 22.405 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.307 million tons. In June, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6103 million tons. - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 59.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.22 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 463,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 173,000 tons. [48][51][54][57][60][66] 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production and Blast Furnace Utilization**: Domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.4071 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,000 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points. - **Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption**: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.0271 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.244 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9946 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 164,000 tons. [68][71][74] 6. Basis As of August 1, the calculated basis of iron ore IOC6 was 50.41 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.05%. [76][79]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - In August, the global iron ore supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, leading to a relatively loose supply - demand balance. Prices are likely to fluctuate and trend weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, the futures and spot prices of iron ore fluctuated and trended strongly. As of July 30, the futures price of the main contract increased by 73.5 yuan/ton month - on - month [5]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Mainstream Mines**: The shipments of the four major mines are expected to rebound in August, with an estimated month - on - month increase of about 258.5 million tons. Vale is expected to ship 27.1 million tons in August, a month - on - month increase of 3.5 million tons; Rio Tinto is expected to ship 28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 235 million tons; BHP is expected to ship 23.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 75 million tons; FMG is expected to ship 16.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95 million tons [25][28][30]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Global non - mainstream shipments are relatively stable overall. In August, the estimated shipment is 43.2 million tons, a decrease of about 40 million tons [33]. - **Domestic Mines**: The domestic iron concentrate production in July is estimated to be 20.85 million tons, and the production in August is expected to be 21.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30 million tons [36]. - **Total Supply**: The global supply in August is expected to increase by about 248.5 million tons month - on - month [6]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - **Domestic Demand**: According to the statistics of Mysteel, the national pig iron production in July is estimated to be 74.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the blast furnace hot metal production is expected to be 74.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3 million tons. The demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to increase slightly by 5 million tons [6][18][22]. - **Overseas Demand**: Except for China, the daily average pig iron production is decreasing. In August, the pig iron production is estimated to decrease slightly by 62,000 tons, and the demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to decrease slightly by about 10 million tons [6][21][22]. - **Global Demand**: In August, the demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to decrease by about 5 million tons globally [6][22]. 3.4 Steel Mill Profit - In July, the profits of long - and short - process steel mills reached a high level, and short - process steel mills turned losses into profits. At the end of July, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a year - on - year increase of 1.13 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a year - on - year increase of 1.20 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a year - on - year increase of 48.49 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 2.4223 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,200 tons [9][13][15]. 3.5 Inventory - At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 138 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons. In August, the inventory is expected to accumulate, but the overall inventory accumulation rate will slow down [40]. - Steel mills mainly replenish inventory as needed, with narrow inventory fluctuations and a stable inventory - to - consumption ratio [42]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Table | Date | Supply (million tons) | Demand (million tons) | Export (million tons) | Supply - Demand Surplus (million tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 01 | 127.3078 | 122.0185 | 1.7907 | 3.4987 | | 2025 - 02 | 102.2437 | 123.5627 | 2.2287 | - 23.5478 | | 2025 - 03 | 130.8431 | 126.6254 | 1.9641 | 2.2536 | | 2025 - 04 | 128.6777 | 130.4944 | 1.8359 | - 3.6526 | | 2025 - 05 | 132.3421 | 132.7831 | 2.3730 | - 2.8140 | | 2025 - 06 | 137.1990 | 126.9900 | 1.2567 | 8.9523 | | 2025 - 07 | 135.2500 | 130.6900 | 1.2600 | 3.3000 | | 2025 - 08 | 135.3800 | 130.7500 | 1.6700 | 2.9600 | | 2025 - 09 | 124.4500 | 129.7500 | 1.9600 | - 7.2600 | | 2025 - 10 | 134.7500 | 132.1000 | 1.5700 | 1.0800 | | 2025 - 11 | 128.4500 | 124.4000 | 1.5600 | 2.4900 | | 2025 - 12 | 133.3000 | 123.1000 | 1.6700 | 8.5300 | [48]