Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 693.5 yuan, closing at 695.5 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.18% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Shenyin Wanguo Futures suggests that iron ore has short-term support but anticipates a weak trend in the future, citing a potential recovery in iron production and decent steel mill profits as factors supporting demand [2] - Donghai Futures recommends a bearish outlook on iron ore prices in the short term, noting a decline in daily iron production and mixed market views on production recovery [3] - Guoxin Guozheng Futures indicates that the iron ore market is under pressure, with seasonal demand weakening and a recent increase in overseas shipments not alleviating the situation [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.591 million tons week-on-week, while arrivals increased slightly by 637,000 tons, indicating a potential recovery in the second quarter [3] - The recent announcement by FMG to delay the full production of the Iron Bridge project by three years raises concerns about future supply [3] - The ongoing reduction in port inventories and high iron production levels are contributing to a complex supply-demand landscape, with expectations of increased shipments in the latter half of the year [2]

Supply - Global shipments increased by 3.188 million tons to 33.478 million tons this week [1] - Total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil reached 27.061 million tons, up by 2.836 million tons [1] - Australian shipments were 18.278 million tons, an increase of 0.305 million tons, with shipments to China decreasing by 0.149 million tons to 15.790 million tons [1] - Brazilian shipments were 8.783 million tons, up by 2.531 million tons [1] - Port arrivals totaled 22.713 million tons, down by 0.833 million tons [1] Demand - Daily molten iron production averaged 2.436 million tons, down by 0.017 million tons [1] - Blast furnace operating rate was 83.69%, a decrease of 0.46% [1] - Blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.32%, down by 0.44 percentage points [1] - Steel mill profit margin was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43% [1] Inventory - As of May 22, total inventory at 45 ports was 139.8783 million tons, down by 1.7826 million tons [1] - Steel mills primarily conducted routine maintenance, maintaining high average port throughput, with inventory decline mainly due to a decrease in arrivals [1] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 3.568 million tons to 89.2548 million tons, with daily consumption slightly down [1] Market Outlook - Global iron ore shipments saw significant growth, while domestic arrivals declined, with expectations for continued supply growth from Australian mines [2] - Daily molten iron production decreased, but port throughput remained high, with inventory levels slightly decreasing [2] - The overall market for finished steel products showed mixed signals, with hot-rolled and rebar demand declining, while wire rod demand increased [2] - The future of iron ore prices will depend on terminal demand for finished steel and export dynamics, with expectations for increased supply pressure in the coming months [2]

国投期货研究院 . 以下文章来源于国投期货研究院 ，作者韩倞 国投期货研究院团队倾力打造，专注热门期货品种分析。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 韩倞 来源 | 黑产掘金俱乐部 编辑 | 杨兰 近期铁矿石期货下跌幅度较大，我们认为这一方面与外围贸易摩擦升温，粗钢出口受到的扰动加剧有关外，另一方面也是受到了今年将执行粗 钢产量大幅压减传闻的影响。我们想尝试通过对比2021年和2025年铁矿石基本面的异同，来分析如果今年依然存在相关政策的话，铁矿石的供 需和走势将会如何演变。 供应进入扩产周期 从供应端来看，2021年铁矿石供应增长3000万吨左右，主要得益于淡水河谷逐步走出前期矿难影响而带来了产量的提升，此外上半年的 高矿价也刺激了中小矿山发运的增加，印度发运增速一度接近60%。不过随着下半年粗钢限产政策的执行，海外铁矿石供应随着中国需求 的下滑也开始走弱，特别是非主流矿山的供应在矿价下跌后收缩明显，其他国家需求的增长并不能弥补掉国内需求下滑的减量，最终 2021年全球铁矿石供应虽然出现增长但仍然不及市场的预期，而我国铁矿石进口增速也创下了近十多年来最大幅度的下滑。 2025年铁矿石供应同样存在增长预期，不 ...