Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - In August, the global iron ore supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, leading to a relatively loose supply - demand balance. Prices are likely to fluctuate and trend weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, the futures and spot prices of iron ore fluctuated and trended strongly. As of July 30, the futures price of the main contract increased by 73.5 yuan/ton month - on - month [5]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Mainstream Mines**: The shipments of the four major mines are expected to rebound in August, with an estimated month - on - month increase of about 258.5 million tons. Vale is expected to ship 27.1 million tons in August, a month - on - month increase of 3.5 million tons; Rio Tinto is expected to ship 28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 235 million tons; BHP is expected to ship 23.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 75 million tons; FMG is expected to ship 16.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95 million tons [25][28][30]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Global non - mainstream shipments are relatively stable overall. In August, the estimated shipment is 43.2 million tons, a decrease of about 40 million tons [33]. - **Domestic Mines**: The domestic iron concentrate production in July is estimated to be 20.85 million tons, and the production in August is expected to be 21.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30 million tons [36]. - **Total Supply**: The global supply in August is expected to increase by about 248.5 million tons month - on - month [6]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - **Domestic Demand**: According to the statistics of Mysteel, the national pig iron production in July is estimated to be 74.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the blast furnace hot metal production is expected to be 74.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3 million tons. The demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to increase slightly by 5 million tons [6][18][22]. - **Overseas Demand**: Except for China, the daily average pig iron production is decreasing. In August, the pig iron production is estimated to decrease slightly by 62,000 tons, and the demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to decrease slightly by about 10 million tons [6][21][22]. - **Global Demand**: In August, the demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to decrease by about 5 million tons globally [6][22]. 3.4 Steel Mill Profit - In July, the profits of long - and short - process steel mills reached a high level, and short - process steel mills turned losses into profits. At the end of July, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a year - on - year increase of 1.13 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a year - on - year increase of 1.20 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a year - on - year increase of 48.49 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 2.4223 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,200 tons [9][13][15]. 3.5 Inventory - At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 138 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons. In August, the inventory is expected to accumulate, but the overall inventory accumulation rate will slow down [40]. - Steel mills mainly replenish inventory as needed, with narrow inventory fluctuations and a stable inventory - to - consumption ratio [42]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Table | Date | Supply (million tons) | Demand (million tons) | Export (million tons) | Supply - Demand Surplus (million tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 01 | 127.3078 | 122.0185 | 1.7907 | 3.4987 | | 2025 - 02 | 102.2437 | 123.5627 | 2.2287 | - 23.5478 | | 2025 - 03 | 130.8431 | 126.6254 | 1.9641 | 2.2536 | | 2025 - 04 | 128.6777 | 130.4944 | 1.8359 | - 3.6526 | | 2025 - 05 | 132.3421 | 132.7831 | 2.3730 | - 2.8140 | | 2025 - 06 | 137.1990 | 126.9900 | 1.2567 | 8.9523 | | 2025 - 07 | 135.2500 | 130.6900 | 1.2600 | 3.3000 | | 2025 - 08 | 135.3800 | 130.7500 | 1.6700 | 2.9600 | | 2025 - 09 | 124.4500 | 129.7500 | 1.9600 | - 7.2600 | | 2025 - 10 | 134.7500 | 132.1000 | 1.5700 | 1.0800 | | 2025 - 11 | 128.4500 | 124.4000 | 1.5600 | 2.4900 | | 2025 - 12 | 133.3000 | 123.1000 | 1.6700 | 8.5300 | [48]

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight increase in spot prices and futures contracts, while demand shows signs of decline due to maintenance and production restrictions in steel mills [1][2][4][7]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments decreased by 78,000 tons week-on-week, totaling 29.87 million tons, while port arrivals increased by 1.78 million tons to 26.62 million tons [5]. Demand - Daily molten iron production averaged 2.3981 million tons, down by 10,400 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31% [4]. Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight decrease, with an average daily dispatch volume increasing by 2,200 tons week-on-week. As of July 15, port inventory stood at 137.23 million tons, down by 428,000 tons, while steel mills' imported ore inventory rose by 610,000 tons to 89.80 million tons [6]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a downward trend in July, with average daily molten iron production projected to remain around 2.38 million tons. Despite seasonal demand weakening, strong steel exports are providing some support [7].

Supply Growth - The global iron ore supply is expected to increase significantly due to new mining projects, particularly the Simandou project in Guinea, which is projected to have a capacity of 100 million tons per year and reserves of 2.4 billion tons with a grade of 65% [1][2] - Other notable projects include the West Pilbara project in Australia with a capacity of 25 million tons per year, and the BAMIN project in Brazil expected to produce 27 million tons per year by 2027 [2] - The total new iron ore production capacity from these projects is estimated to be nearly 200 million tons annually once fully operational [2] Global Iron Ore Exports - In 2023, global iron ore exports reached 1.71 billion tons, with Australia accounting for 52.5% (898 million tons) and Brazil for 23.9% (408 million tons) [3] - Non-mainstream producers have seen a rise in export volumes, contributing significantly to the growth of global iron ore trade [3] Shipping Volume Fluctuations - Severe weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere affected iron ore shipments from major ports in Australia and Brazil, leading to a significant decline in global shipping volumes in Q1 2023 [4] - The average weekly shipping volume for iron ore in Q1 was 27.9 million tons, down 1.7% year-on-year, but rebounded to an average of 30.01 million tons in H1 2023, reflecting a recovery in shipping activities [4] Domestic Supply Challenges - Domestic iron ore production in China has decreased, with a reported 414 million tons produced in the first five months of 2023, a decline of 9.4% year-on-year [5] - The overall domestic supply of iron ore has contracted significantly due to reduced imports and local production challenges [5][6] Demand Resilience - Domestic steel demand has remained strong in H1 2023, driven by a recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure investment, with an average profit margin for steel mills rising to 54.4% [7] - Steel production has increased, with daily molten iron output reaching 2.357 million tons, a 4% increase year-on-year [7] Outlook for H2 2023 - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with projections indicating a potential supply gap of 1.25 million tons under neutral expectations [9] - The overall supply and demand are anticipated to increase, leading to a more relaxed market condition, with iron ore prices expected to fluctuate within a range [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The iron ore market is experiencing a new round of game between reality and expectation, with prices in a range - bound oscillation. The market is trading the strong reality brought by hot metal and inventory data, while future expectations are in a tug - of - war with the strong reality. It is difficult for iron ore prices to have a smooth unilateral trend, and the timing of price correction may need to wait for signs of marginal weakening in the actual fundamentals [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 09 contract continued to fluctuate narrowly, closing at 703.0 yuan/ton. The position was 677,000 lots, a decrease of 18,900 lots. The average daily trading volume was 420,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 75,000 lots [6]. 3.2 Spot Price Performance - Spot prices continued the trend of supplementary decline. For example, the price of 64.5% Carajás fines at Qingdao Port dropped from 816 yuan/ton last week to 805 yuan/ton this week [8]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply - **Mainstream Mines**: Mainstream shipments have recovered to relatively high levels. With the end - of - fiscal - year volume - pushing drives of BHP and Fortescue, the expectation of loose supply is gradually strengthening. Recently, shipments have returned to year - on - year highs, and freight rates have risen [5][12][16]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Indian shipments increased month - on - month, while Peruvian shipments have not recovered [18]. - **Domestic Mines**: Production activities in the southwest region were restricted by anti - corruption inspections, and recently, operations in North China also decreased due to supervision and inspections [26]. 3.4 Iron Ore Demand - **Downstream Demand**: The production of hot metal and five major steel products fluctuated again, providing some support for spot demand [30]. - **Scrap Steel Substitution Effect**: Scrap steel arrivals were relatively neutral, and the price difference between scrap and iron widened again. The substitution effect of raw materials was relatively weak [34]. 3.5 Iron Ore Inventory The inflection point of port inventory has not arrived [37][38]. 3.6 Downstream Profits The performance of finished product prices was relatively strong, and profits were revised upwards [40]. 3.7 Spot Category Price Difference - The price of low - grade ores was firm, and the price difference between medium - and low - grade ores (PB - Super Special) narrowed to a relatively low level. The industrial - end driver mainly comes from the fact that under the background of low coke prices, steel mills tend to use more coke and low - grade ores to optimize the overall cost structure [45]. 3.8 Futures Spread - The 9 - 1 spread narrowed and then widened again, mainly driven by the strong fundamentals of the current situation [47]. 3.9 Basis Performance The futures price was firm, the spot price continued to decline, and the basis repair market continued [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The macro - drive of iron ore is wavering, and the price is expected to oscillate repeatedly. The fundamentals of iron ore are showing signs of changing from tight to loose, but the relatively high downstream开工 rate resists price decline. Considering the multi - faceted potential political events at the macro - level, the iron ore price may continue the range - bound trend in the short term [3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 09 contract fluctuated narrowly this week, closing at 703.0 yuan/ton. The position was 696,000 lots, a decrease of 29,000 lots. The average daily trading volume was 344,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 49,000 lots [7] Spot Price Performance - Spot prices continued to be weak, with medium - grade ores experiencing larger declines. For example, the price of PB powder decreased by 11 yuan/ton from last week [11] Iron Ore Supply Mainstream Mines - Australian shipments continued to rise. BHP and Fortescue had strong momentum to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year, both reaching year - on - year highs, strengthening the expectation of loose supply. Freight rates showed some differentiation [5][16] Non - mainstream Mines - The iron ore shipments from Peru have not fully recovered [20] Domestic Mines - Previously, production activities in the southwest region were restricted due to anti - corruption inspections. Recently, the开工 rate in North China also decreased due to supervision and inspections [27] Iron Ore Demand Downstream - The production of five major steel products and the port ore clearance volume declined steeply recently. The pig iron output continued to decline month - on - month, but the absolute level remained relatively high [33] Scrap Steel Substitution Effect - The arrival of scrap steel was relatively neutral, and the scrap - iron price difference continued to widen, reaching a new stage high [34] Iron Ore Inventory - The inflection point of inventory accumulation has emerged [38][40] Downstream Profits - The prices of coking coal and coke rebounded, leading to a decline in downstream profits [44] Spot Category Spreads - The spread between medium - and low - grade ores (PB - Super Special) continued to narrow [46] Futures Monthly Spreads - Due to the downward - revised supply - demand expectation in the second half of the year, the near - month contract weakened, and the 9 - 1 spread narrowed by 5.5 yuan/ton week - on - week to 30.5 yuan/ton [50] Basis Performance - As the fundamentals weakened in reality, the spot price made up for the decline, and the basis converged [53]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In June, the global iron ore supply - demand balance is statically loose, and the price will fluctuate weakly [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In May, the spot and futures prices of iron ore fluctuated weakly. As of May 29, the futures price of the main contract decreased by 2 yuan/ton month - on - month [4]. 3.2 Supply - side - The shipments of the four major mines are expected to increase by about 3 million tons in June compared to the previous month. Specifically, VALE is expected to ship 25 million tons, up 300,000 tons; Rio Tinto 27.85 million tons, up 1.9 million tons; BHP 27.2 million tons, up about 1.85 million tons; FMG 17.75 million tons, down 1.05 million tons [6][26][29]. - Global non - mainstream shipments are relatively stable. In June, the estimated shipment is 44.85 million tons, a decrease of about 50,000 tons [6][33]. - The domestic iron ore output is expected to be 20.85 million tons in June, a decrease of 470,000 tons compared to the previous month. Overall, the global supply in June is expected to increase by about 2.48 million tons month - on - month [6][36][37]. 3.3 Demand - side - Domestically, according to the Steel Union's statistics, the estimated blast furnace hot metal output in June is 73.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons compared to the previous month, which translates to a decrease of about 3.93 million tons in the demand for 61% grade iron ore [7][17][23]. - Overseas, except for China, the daily average pig iron output is generally stable. The estimated pig iron output in June will increase by about 225,000 tons compared to the previous month, which translates to an increase of about 370,000 tons in the demand for 61% grade iron ore. Globally, the demand for 61% grade iron ore in June will decrease by about 3.56 million tons [7][20][23]. 3.4 Inventory - At the end of May, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 139 million tons, a decrease of 435 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to accumulate in June [38]. - Steel mills mostly replenish inventory as needed. The inventory fluctuates within a narrow range, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio continues to weaken [40].

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 693.5 yuan, closing at 695.5 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.18% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Shenyin Wanguo Futures suggests that iron ore has short-term support but anticipates a weak trend in the future, citing a potential recovery in iron production and decent steel mill profits as factors supporting demand [2] - Donghai Futures recommends a bearish outlook on iron ore prices in the short term, noting a decline in daily iron production and mixed market views on production recovery [3] - Guoxin Guozheng Futures indicates that the iron ore market is under pressure, with seasonal demand weakening and a recent increase in overseas shipments not alleviating the situation [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.591 million tons week-on-week, while arrivals increased slightly by 637,000 tons, indicating a potential recovery in the second quarter [3] - The recent announcement by FMG to delay the full production of the Iron Bridge project by three years raises concerns about future supply [3] - The ongoing reduction in port inventories and high iron production levels are contributing to a complex supply-demand landscape, with expectations of increased shipments in the latter half of the year [2]

Supply - Global shipments increased by 3.188 million tons to 33.478 million tons this week [1] - Total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil reached 27.061 million tons, up by 2.836 million tons [1] - Australian shipments were 18.278 million tons, an increase of 0.305 million tons, with shipments to China decreasing by 0.149 million tons to 15.790 million tons [1] - Brazilian shipments were 8.783 million tons, up by 2.531 million tons [1] - Port arrivals totaled 22.713 million tons, down by 0.833 million tons [1] Demand - Daily molten iron production averaged 2.436 million tons, down by 0.017 million tons [1] - Blast furnace operating rate was 83.69%, a decrease of 0.46% [1] - Blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.32%, down by 0.44 percentage points [1] - Steel mill profit margin was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43% [1] Inventory - As of May 22, total inventory at 45 ports was 139.8783 million tons, down by 1.7826 million tons [1] - Steel mills primarily conducted routine maintenance, maintaining high average port throughput, with inventory decline mainly due to a decrease in arrivals [1] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 3.568 million tons to 89.2548 million tons, with daily consumption slightly down [1] Market Outlook - Global iron ore shipments saw significant growth, while domestic arrivals declined, with expectations for continued supply growth from Australian mines [2] - Daily molten iron production decreased, but port throughput remained high, with inventory levels slightly decreasing [2] - The overall market for finished steel products showed mixed signals, with hot-rolled and rebar demand declining, while wire rod demand increased [2] - The future of iron ore prices will depend on terminal demand for finished steel and export dynamics, with expectations for increased supply pressure in the coming months [2]

国投期货研究院 . 以下文章来源于国投期货研究院 ，作者韩倞 国投期货研究院团队倾力打造，专注热门期货品种分析。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 韩倞 来源 | 黑产掘金俱乐部 编辑 | 杨兰 近期铁矿石期货下跌幅度较大，我们认为这一方面与外围贸易摩擦升温，粗钢出口受到的扰动加剧有关外，另一方面也是受到了今年将执行粗 钢产量大幅压减传闻的影响。我们想尝试通过对比2021年和2025年铁矿石基本面的异同，来分析如果今年依然存在相关政策的话，铁矿石的供 需和走势将会如何演变。 供应进入扩产周期 从供应端来看，2021年铁矿石供应增长3000万吨左右，主要得益于淡水河谷逐步走出前期矿难影响而带来了产量的提升，此外上半年的 高矿价也刺激了中小矿山发运的增加，印度发运增速一度接近60%。不过随着下半年粗钢限产政策的执行，海外铁矿石供应随着中国需求 的下滑也开始走弱，特别是非主流矿山的供应在矿价下跌后收缩明显，其他国家需求的增长并不能弥补掉国内需求下滑的减量，最终 2021年全球铁矿石供应虽然出现增长但仍然不及市场的预期，而我国铁矿石进口增速也创下了近十多年来最大幅度的下滑。 2025年铁矿石供应同样存在增长预期，不 ...