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瑞达期货鸡蛋产业日报-20250804
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 09:53
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly opened laying hens from previous replenishments is significant, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further exacerbates the supply pressure. The spot market price has been consistently lower than expected, rising from the previous low and then falling again recently. However, due to continuous high temperatures in many parts of the country, the egg - laying rate of laying hens in some areas has declined, alleviating the short - term market supply pressure. With the start of school - opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. In the futures market, the near - month contracts have fallen significantly due to weak spot prices and high inventory, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in the far - month contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3360 yuan/500 kilograms, down 124 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 34911 lots, up 2099 lots. - The egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 260 yuan/500 kilograms, down 125 yuan; the futures trading volume of the active contract is 231979 lots, up 5939 lots. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 25 lots, up 3 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 369 yuan/500 kilograms, down 58 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 111.91 (2015 = 100), up 1.02; the national culled laying hen index is 104.09 (2015 = 100), down 4.59. - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.85 yuan/chick, down 0.03 yuan; the national new - born chick index is 76.07 (2015 = 100), down 30.71. - The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.7 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan; the laying hen breeding profit is - 0.16 yuan/hen, down 0.1 yuan. - The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 11.76 yuan/kg, up 0.48 yuan; the national culling age of laying hens is 501 days, down 5 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.33 yuan/kg, down 0.27 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.49 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan. - The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.34 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.04 days, unchanged; the weekly inventory in the production link is 0.91 days, down 0.04 days. - The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 8032 tons, up 146 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 5.91 yuan/kg, down 0.24 yuan from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.68 yuan/kg, down 0.33 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 7.00 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan; in Beijing, it is 6.08 yuan/kg, down 0.36 yuan [2].
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250804
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 01:41
Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. In the spot market, August is still the peak season, and there should be at least one more price increase. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 4.0 - 4.2 yuan. For the futures market, if the spot price fails to resume its upward trend in the next week, the 09 contract may continue to squeeze out the premium. If the spot price rises again, its sustainability needs to be monitored. The 4.0 - 4.2 yuan level in the spot market will still have strong pressure, corresponding to around 3800 in the futures market. The contracts for the fourth quarter are currently at historically low valuations, and long positions can be considered after the current spot price decline, but band operations are recommended [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The prices of eggs in the national market were weak. The average price in the main production areas was 3.15 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day. The 09 contract fell 1.28%. The 2508 contract closed at 3191, down 45 or 1.39%; the 2509 contract closed at 3484, down 45 or 1.28%; the 2510 contract closed at 3295, down 17 or 0.51% [7]. - Operation Suggestions: Observe the pressure around 4.0 - 4.2 yuan in the spot market. For the 09 contract, pay attention to the spot price trend. For the fourth - quarter contracts, consider band operations and long - position layouts after the spot price decline [8]. 2. Industry News - Laying Hen Inventory: The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, it was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9]. - Chick Hatchling Volume: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of layer chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. It was the first year - on - year decrease in the past two months [9]. - Hen Culling: As of July 31, the culling volume in the previous three weeks was 13.01 million, 13.38 million, and 15.05 million respectively. The culling volume has been decreasing since June, and the average culling age was 507 days [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on China's monthly inventory of laying hens, egg - chicken farming profits, egg 08 contract basis, egg 08 - 09 spread, egg main production area average price, and egg 09 seasonal trend, but specific data analysis is not elaborated in the text [11][14][16]
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250730
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 13:08
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Eggs Daily Report" [2] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3636, down 7 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3480, up 5; JD09 closed at 3570, down 6 [3] - 01 - 05 spread closed at 156, down 12; 05 - 09 spread closed at -90, up 11; 09 - 01 spread closed at -66, up 1 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.64, down 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.19, down 0.01 [3] Spot Market - Main producing area average price was 3.25 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day; main selling area average price was 3.43 yuan/jin, unchanged [3][6] - National mainstream prices were mostly stable, with some regions showing small fluctuations [6] Profit Calculation - Average price of culled chickens was 5.81 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin; average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan/feather [3] - Egg - laying hen profit was 18.80 yuan/feather, down 0.13 yuan/feather from the previous day [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In June, the national laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [7] - In June, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 40.75 million, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [7] - From July to October 2025, the estimated laying hen inventories are 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [7] - From July 18 - 24, the national main producing area culled chicken slaughter volume was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the average culling age of culled chickens was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the national representative selling area egg sales volume was 8032 tons, an increase of 1.8% from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, unchanged [7] - As of July 24, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.03 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.45 yuan/jin from the previous week; on July 25, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 13.97 yuan/feather, an increase of 2.06 yuan/feather from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - Recent egg prices have stabilized at the current level, and spot prices are expected to strengthen seasonally. After the plum - rain season and with pre - Mid - Autumn Festival food factory stocking, prices are expected to rise after reaching the bottom, but the increase may be limited due to the current loose production capacity [10] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the safety margin is high [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Sell put options [11]
鸡蛋周报:现货阶段熄火,近月升水偏大回落-20250728
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 12:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg spot market has rebounded significantly but is approaching historical涨幅, showing hesitation. The futures market, though rising less, remains in a premium structure. Near the delivery month, the near - month 08 contract will face selling pressure. It is recommended to buy the far - month 09 contract on dips and look for reverse spread opportunities [3]. - The supply side has high - level capacity, with recent new replenishment slowing down, previous replenishment starting to lay eggs, and the elimination of backward capacity slowing. The demand side has improved, but the marginal support is weakening, requiring new tourism and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand [3]. - The cost of feed and comprehensive breeding has slightly declined. Egg prices have returned above the feed cost, and profits have improved [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Egg futures ended their rebound last week and returned to a weak oscillation. The large increase in spot prices needs to be digested, and the premium structure of the futures is being repaired. The market is expected to enter a short - term correction phase [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - Last week, new egg products maintained a high - level oscillation, with the upward momentum slowing down and starting to correct. The current spot rebound is mainly driven by the sales areas. After the bad weather, stocking will provide some support, but the increase is limited. The market has risen from 2.4 yuan/jin to 3.2 yuan/jin, close to the average seasonal increase, and further upward movement requires new event drivers [14]. 3.3 Supply Side - New capacity: From June to August 2025, the newly opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from February to April 2025, remaining at a high level and higher than the historical average [19]. - Elimination capacity: From June to August 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, with a relatively neutral available elimination volume [19]. - Laying - hen inventory: The inventory remains at a high level. New capacity is increasing steadily, new replenishment is slowing down, and the available elimination volume is decreasing steadily. The backward capacity is entering the active elimination stage, but the overall supply pressure still exists [19]. 3.4 Elimination End - The price of culled chickens is 5.76 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.24 yuan/jin. The elimination volume has decreased significantly, and the increase in price restricts the enthusiasm for elimination. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining stable, and the overall age has returned to the normal range, with the "start - up rate" increasing steadily [22]. 3.5 Demand Side - Seasonally, it is the peak season for tourism and deep - processing demand. The inventory pressure in the production areas is not high, but high temperatures are reducing the laying rate and increasing costs. On the consumption side, after the rainy season, the tourism peak season has arrived, and overall demand has improved [24]. - Vegetable prices are rising due to high - temperature weather, supporting egg prices. Pork prices are oscillating at a high level, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious. Other meat prices have strengthened recently [26]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - Cost: Corn prices are running at a high level, and soybean meal prices are falling steadily. The overall cost is oscillating, with the current feed cost at about 2.5 yuan/jin and the comprehensive breeding cost at about 2.8 yuan/jin [29]. - Profit: Egg prices have recently returned above the feed cost, but the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in the red, showing a seasonal bottom - bouncing [30]. 3.7 Capital and Market Sentiment - Capital is at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Bears believe that the high - level capacity, seasonal suppression, and the premium of the futures over the spot indicate further downward space. Bulls believe that the valuation is low and the seasonal trend is about to turn positive, making it a good time to buy. Currently, near the delivery month, the bears are winning [33]. 3.8 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis is negative, and the overall futures is at a premium. The basis is currently running at a low level, waiting for the basis to strengthen during the peak season [35]. - Spread: In the future, as the cycle capacity declines, reverse spreads should be the main strategy [38].
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250728
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 01:27
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: July 28, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Egg 2508 contract: Previous settlement price was 3,578, opening price 3,544, highest price 3,554, lowest price 3,504, closing price 3,522, down 56 or -1.57%, with a trading volume of 18,974 and an open interest of 30,889 (down 4,416) [7] - Egg 2509 contract: Previous settlement price was 3,634, opening price 3,639, highest price 3,643, lowest price 3,622, closing price 3,628, down 6 or -0.17%, with a trading volume of 120,682 and an open interest of 239,719 (up 703) [7] - Egg 2510 contract: Previous settlement price was 3,397, opening price 3,400, highest price 3,414, lowest price 3,396, closing price 3,411, up 14 or 0.41%, with a trading volume of 41,51 and an open interest of 114,725 (up 204) [7] - National egg prices were stable. The average price in the main production areas was 3.34 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.52 yuan/jin, also unchanged [7] Core View - Egg prices have continued to rise this week, officially entering the summer peak season since last week. The fundamentals this year are similar to those in 2017 and 2020, with high supply, low spot prices during the plum - rain season, and a high expected increase during the summer peak season. The increase slope is relatively high in high - supply years. The upward momentum weakened on Thursday and Friday, and there may be a phased adjustment. Based on historical data, the expected average maximum price in the production areas during the third - quarter peak season this year is 4.30 yuan/jin, and the minimum is 3.77 yuan/jin. For futures, the valuation of the 09 contract is slightly lower than the average expected increase during the peak season, so a short - term bullish mindset is recommended, but long - term positions should be avoided as cold - stored eggs may impact the market after a sharp price increase [8] Group 3: Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on an upward trend. As of the end of June, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was about 1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [9] - In June, the monthly output of layer chicks from sample enterprises was about 40.75 million, a decrease from 44.98 million in May and a slight increase compared with 39.98 million in the same period in 2024. It is a moderately high monthly replenishment volume in June in the past 8 years. The replenishment volume has declined for two consecutive months, mainly due to seasonal factors [9][10] - In the three weeks up to July 18, the national chicken culling volumes were 15.05 million, 16.27 million, and 17.14 million respectively. The culling volume has gradually recovered since May, reached a phased peak in June, and then declined slightly due to the expectation of the summer peak season, but the absolute value is still slightly higher than the levels of the previous three years. As of July 24, the average age of culled chickens was 506 days, one day later than last week and two days earlier than last month [10]
鸡蛋市场周报:现货价格继续回升,远月走势强于近月-20250725
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 12:18
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current laying hen inventory is at a high level, with significant pressure from newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishments, resulting in sufficient egg supply. However, as prices reach relatively low levels, the process of culling old hens has accelerated, reducing inventory expectations. Also, due to high temperatures in many parts of the country, the egg - laying rate of laying hens in some areas has declined, alleviating short - term market supply pressure. Additionally, terminal demand is gradually picking up, releasing the breeding industry's expectation for price increases, which has promoted a rebound in egg prices from the low level. The futures price has slightly increased, with the far - month contracts performing better than the near - month ones [8]. - The recommended strategy is to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - The egg market showed an oscillatory upward trend this week. The closing price of the 09 contract was 3628 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 33 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [8]. - The recommended strategy is to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Top 20 Positions**: The egg futures 09 contract oscillated slightly upward. The trading volume was 239,719 lots, a decrease of 18,193 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 32,363, and last week it was - 28,627, with a slight increase in net short positions [14]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [18]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3387 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 351 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 09 contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 241 yuan per ton [24]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was reported at - 46 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - **Related Spot Prices**: As of July 24, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.62 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.36 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm**: As of June 30, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was reported at 111.91, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The national new chick index was reported at 76.07, a month - on - month decrease of 28.76% [40]. - **Culling Index and Culling Age**: As of June 30, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was reported at 104.09, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22%. The national culling age was reported at 501 days [45]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of July 24, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2408.82 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 2900 yuan per ton [49]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of July 18, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was reported at - 0.47 yuan per hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.72 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Prices of Laying Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of July 18, 2025, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 3.88 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was reported at 9.6 yuan per kilogram [58]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In May 2025, China's total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared to the same period last year (11,784.06 tons), a year - on - year increase of 7.87%, and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons compared to the previous month (12,792.51 tons) [64]. 4. Representative Company - The report mentions Xiaoming Co., Ltd. and shows its price - to - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis is provided [66].
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250723
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 14:24
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an egg daily report dated July 22, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Products R & D [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3617, unchanged from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3410, up 2; JD09 closed at 3621, down 15 [3] - The 01 - 05 spread was 207, down 2; 05 - 09 spread was - 211, up 17; 09 - 01 spread was 4, down 15 [3] - Ratios like 01 egg/corn and 01 egg/soybean meal remained mostly unchanged [3] Spot Market - Main production area average price was 3.26 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin; main sales area average price was 3.41 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin [3][6] - Most spot prices in various regions were stable, with some increases in Beijing, Northeast China, etc [3][6] - Average price of culled chickens was 5.54 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [3][8] Profit and Feed - Current profit per chicken was 17.55 yuan, up 1.37 yuan from the previous day [3] - Corn average price was 2410 yuan, up 1; soybean meal average price was 2974 yuan, unchanged [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In June, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.34 billion, up 0.06 billion from last month and 6.7% year - on - year [7] - In June, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 40.75 million, down 9% month - on - month and up 1.9% year - on - year [7] - From July to October 2025, the estimated laying - hen inventories are 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [7] - From July 11 - 17, culled chicken output was 16.27 million, down 5% from the previous week [7] - As of July 17, the average culled chicken age was 505 days, up 1 day from the previous week [7] - As of July 19, egg sales in representative sales areas were 7886 tons, up 3.8% from the previous week [8] - As of July 17, production - link average inventory was 0.95 days, down 0.1 day; circulation - link average inventory was 1.04 days, down 0.13 days [8] - As of July 17, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.48 yuan/jin, up 0.2 yuan/jin from the previous week; on July 17, the expected profit per laying hen was 12.14 yuan, down 1.24 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - Current single - jin egg profit is in loss or at break - even, limiting the downward space of futures prices [9] - The upward space of the September contract depends on future culled chicken volume. High culled chicken volume means more upward space; otherwise, it may be slightly bullish [9] - Spot prices are expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract, being a peak - season contract, may rise after hitting the bottom as the rainy season ends and food factories stock up before the Mid - Autumn Festival [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the safety margin is high [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [10]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250722
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 01:53
Report Overview - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The egg price bottomed out last week and then rose significantly, officially entering the summer peak season. The current market is in the first wave of rapid price increases. Based on historical data, the average spot price of eggs in the producing areas during the peak season of the third quarter this year is expected to reach 4.30 yuan/jin, with a minimum average of 3.77 yuan/jin. The valuation of the 09 contract is slightly lower than the average expected increase during the peak season. A short - term bullish approach is recommended, but long positions should be traded in a phased manner to avoid over - exposure [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The price of eggs in the national market rose today. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.18 yuan/jin, up 0.19 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main consuming areas was 3.41 yuan/jin, up 0.22 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 09 contract rose 0.64%. For specific contract data, the 2508 contract closed at 3593, up 80 or 2.28%; the 2509 contract closed at 3636, up 23 or 0.64%; the 2510 contract closed at 3410, up 37 or 1.10% [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: A short - term bullish approach is recommended, but long positions should be traded in a phased manner to avoid over - exposure due to the potential impact of cold - stored eggs on the market after a sharp price increase [8]. 2. Industry News - **Laying Hen Inventory**: As of the end of June, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, showing an upward trend for six consecutive months [9]. - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In June, the monthly hatchling volume of chicks in sample enterprises was about 40.75 million, slightly less than 44.98 million in May and slightly higher than 39.98 million in the same period in 2024. The replenishment volume has declined for two consecutive months, mainly due to seasonal factors [9][10]. - **Hen Culling Volume**: In the three weeks up to July 11, the national hen culling volumes were 16.27 million, 17.14 million, and 18.41 million respectively. The culling volume gradually recovered after May, reached a phased peak in June, and then declined slightly due to expectations of the summer peak season, but the absolute value was still slightly higher than the levels of the previous three years. As of July 17, the average age of culled hens was 505 days, one day later than last week and four days earlier than last month [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg production area average price, 08 contract basis, 08 - 09 spread, 08 seasonal trend, and egg - laying hen farming profit, etc. [14][17][13]
鸡蛋周报:备货需求启动?市场走货加快,蛋价应声上涨-20250721
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 03:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the rising spot price boosts market sentiment, but the significant pressure on the breeding side may limit the price increase of eggs [8][60]. - It is recommended to go long with a light position on dips and continuously monitor the recovery of demand and the reduction of production capacity [9][61]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Trend Review 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of egg futures changed from 2508 to 2509, with the market oscillating. As of last Friday's close, the JD2509 contract was reported at 3,595 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.03%, with a trading volume of 340,339 lots and an open interest of 257,912 lots [5][13]. 3.1.2. Spot Price - Last Friday, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.05 yuan per jin, up 0.13 yuan per jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.09 yuan per jin, up 0.15 yuan per jin from the previous day [17]. - Last week, the egg price in the main producing areas showed a strong trend. At the beginning of the week, the market's bullish sentiment increased, the inventory decreased, and the egg price rose accordingly. In the middle of the week, the terminal procurement slowed down, and the price stabilized. Near the weekend, the market's bullish sentiment emerged, and the egg price rose again. The egg price in the selling areas continued to be strong, driven by the rising price in the producing areas, with active downstream procurement. The high - temperature weather led to a decline in the laying rate and a shortage of supply in the producing areas, resulting in a decrease in the arrival volume in the selling areas, and the egg price rose steadily under the dual support of supply and demand [7][18]. 3.1.3. Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the chicken chick price continued to be weak. The average price of commercial chicken chicks in key national regions was 3.74 yuan per chick, with a month - on - month decline of 0.53% and a year - on - year increase of 15.79%. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was about 60% - 70%. The high inventory of laying hens and the continuous loss of breeding enterprises, combined with the cautious expectation of the future market and the difficulty of breeding management in summer, led to low replenishment enthusiasm and a significant slowdown in the chick - arranging progress of breeding enterprises [22]. 3.1.4. Old Hen Price - Last week, the old hen price continued to rise. The average price of old hens in key producing areas was 4.85 yuan per jin, up 0.19 yuan per jin from the previous week, with a growth rate of 4.08%. The rising egg price boosted the confidence of the breeding side in the future egg market, and the rising old hen price further strengthened the bullish expectation of the breeding side. The overall culling willingness was low, the slaughter volume decreased significantly, and the circulation efficiency of the live - poultry market improved [27]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **In - production Laying Hen Inventory**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in July is expected to increase month - on - month. The actual slaughter volume of old hens this month is expected to be less than the theoretical value, and the inventory of in - production laying hens may increase month - on - month, with an estimated value of about 1.285 billion [31]. - **Shipping Volume in Producing Areas**: The shipping volume in the main producing areas increased month - on - month. Last week, the shipping volume of representative markets in the main producing areas was 6,229.57 tons, up 1.30% month - on - month and down 16.29% year - on - year. The rising egg price drove the downstream procurement enthusiasm, but the decline in the laying rate due to weather factors restricted the shipping rhythm [36]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens was 489,600, down 7.45% month - on - month, and the average slaughter age was 503 days, unchanged from the previous week. The rising egg price led to a strong reluctance to sell among breeders, and the slaughter enthusiasm decreased significantly [41]. 3.2.2. Demand Side - **Arrival Volume in Selling Areas**: The arrival volume in the selling areas decreased. At the beginning of last week, the price increase in the producing and selling areas led to an increase in the arrival volume, but as the egg price stabilized and the temperature was high, the arrival volume decreased [46]. - **Sales Volume in Selling Areas**: As of last Thursday, the egg sales volume was 5,757.91 tons, down 2.94% month - on - month. The egg price rebounded, and the selling areas accelerated inventory clearance. Affected by the high - temperature weather, the inventory in each circulation link was low, and the terminal and food enterprises only purchased as needed [50]. 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.5 days, down 0.03 days from the previous day, with a decrease of 5.66%. The circulation - link inventory was 0.73 days, down 0.01 days from the previous day, with a decrease of 1.35%. The egg inventory decreased month - on - month. The low - price sales were fast, and the decline in the laying rate due to high - temperature weather led to a tight supply and a faster inventory clearance [54]. 3.2.4. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.53 yuan per jin, down 0.01 yuan per jin month - on - month, with a decline of 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.77 yuan per jin, up 0.18 yuan per jin month - on - month, with a growth rate of 18.95%. The prices of corn and soybean meal fluctuated, the breeding cost decreased slightly, and the breeding profit rebounded [59].
鸡蛋市场周报:现货低位小幅回升,期货盘面窄幅震荡-20250718
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 10:43
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report recommends a light - position trial long on far - month contracts [7]. - Currently, the egg market has high egg - laying hen inventory, large new - laying hen pressure from previous replenishment, sufficient egg supply, high storage costs due to hot and humid weather, cautious downstream purchases, low egg prices, and continuous losses for farmers. However, as prices reach a low level, the old - hen culling process has accelerated, reducing inventory expectations. High temperatures in many areas have led to a decline in the laying rate, alleviating short - term supply pressure. Terminal demand is gradually recovering, and the farmers' expectation of price increases has promoted a low - level rebound in egg prices. The futures market has also seen a slowdown in the decline due to the stabilization of the spot market [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: Light - position trial long on far - month contracts [7]. - Market review: This week, the egg futures 09 contract closed up in a volatile manner, with a closing price of 3595 yuan/500 kg, an increase of 15 yuan/500 kg from the previous week. The current situation is a high inventory of egg - laying hens, large new - laying hen pressure, sufficient supply, high storage costs, cautious downstream purchases, low egg prices, and continuous losses for farmers. But as prices are low, the culling of old hens has accelerated, high temperatures have reduced the laying rate, short - term supply pressure has eased, terminal demand is recovering, and this has promoted a rebound in egg prices. The futures decline has also slowed [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and positions: The egg futures 09 contract rose slightly in a volatile manner, with a position of 257,912 lots, an increase of 27,276 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 28,627, with little change from the previous week's - 28,851 [14]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [18]. - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was 3036 yuan/500 kg, an increase of 440 yuan/500 kg from the previous week. The basis between the active 09 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 559 yuan/ton [24]. - Futures inter - month spread: The egg 9 - 1 spread was - 7 yuan/500 kg, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - Related product prices: As of July 17, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.63 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.38 yuan/kg [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply side: As of May 31, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was 110.89, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%; the national new - chick index was 106.78, a month - on - month decrease of 23.00% [40]. - Culling: As of May 31, 2025, the national culled egg - laying hen index was 108.68, a month - on - month increase of 12.32%; the average culling age of hens was 506 days [44]. - Feed raw materials: As of July 17, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2409.12 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2870 yuan/ton [48]. - Feed price and breeding profit: As of July 11, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.69 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.72 yuan/kg [55]. - Egg - laying hen chicks and culled hens: As of July 11, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.9 yuan/chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.2 yuan/kg [57]. - Egg exports: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons (7.87%) year - on - year compared with 11,784.06 tons in the same period last year, and a decrease of 81.14 tons month - on - month compared with 12,792.51 tons in the previous month [63].