鸡蛋期货

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研客专栏 | 鸡蛋:如何看待近月合约放量上涨
对冲研投· 2025-09-15 12:05
Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in near-term futures is supported by the recent rise in spot prices, market expectations for excessive culling in late September and October, and technical factors such as gap openings and previous support levels, aided by speculative funds [5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In September, while production capacity peaks are expected, the reduction in capacity will take time, and only excessive culling in October and November can improve the current oversupply situation [5]. - The government has been promoting capacity reduction in the pig industry since June, but the effects have not been significant. For eggs, while no explicit measures have been announced, environmental policies may restrict the expansion of large-scale poultry farms [6]. - The sentiment for culling has slowed down recently, and if spot prices exceed expectations, market confidence may recover, potentially leading to slower culling rates and exacerbating supply pressures post-holiday [6]. Spot Price Trends - Since September, spot prices have been driven up by demand from schools and food processing companies preparing for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with the average price of eggs in major production areas rising to 3.58 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.43 yuan/kg from the beginning of the month [9]. - The inventory levels in production and circulation have decreased, with production inventory at 0.45 days and circulation inventory at 0.73 days as of September 12 [9]. Production and Culling Data - As of the end of August 2025, the number of laying hens increased by 2% month-on-month and 7% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.3172 billion [18]. - The sales of chick orders have decreased, indicating a slowdown in replenishment sentiment since June, with expectations for a slight decline in the number of laying hens in September [18]. - The average culling price for hens was 4.65 yuan/kg as of September 12, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the beginning of the month, with culling volumes showing some divergence in data but generally indicating a faster culling pace [24]. Profitability and Market Sentiment - As of September 9, the feed price was 2.71 yuan/kg, and the profit from egg production was 0.05 yuan/kg, indicating a recovery in profitability due to rising egg prices [23]. - The sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations of a potential increase in culling volumes around the Mid-Autumn Festival, depending on the spot price trends [24]. Futures Market Analysis - The near-term and main contracts are closely aligned due to the delivery of eggs in October, with recent spot price rebounds leading to a narrowing basis [31]. - The market sentiment appears bullish, but the underlying supply-demand conditions may not support sustained price increases, indicating a potential for price corrections [31].
鸡蛋市场周报:现货季节性回升,期货仍受制于高产能-20250912
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 10:06
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.12」 鸡蛋市场周报 现货季节性回升 期货仍受制于高产能 研究员:许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 来源:瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋: Ø 行情回顾:本周鸡蛋窄幅震荡,2511合约收盘价为3040元/500千克,较前一周+36元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望:目前蛋鸡存栏量处于高位,前期补栏的蛋鸡新开产压力较大,鸡蛋供应比较充足。且 温度降低,蛋鸡产蛋率回升,进一步加重了供应压力。同时,尽管中秋备货及学校陆续开学,鸡 蛋消费需求略有回升,但同比仍显疲软,现货价格持续运行于近年同期最低位。不过,蛋价表现 持续不及预期,养殖端持续亏损或推动老鸡淘汰进程加快以及降低补栏积极性,关注近期老鸡淘 汰情况。盘面来看,在现货价格季节性回升提振下,近日空头有获利平仓迹象,推动期价也低位 反弹。但高产能压力仍存,持续对盘面有所牵制。 Ø 策略建议:短期以快进快出为主,关注老鸡淘汰量。 联系电话:0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 ...
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250904
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 02:56
行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 9 月 4 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 #summary# 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...
鸡蛋市场周报:现货价格维持低位,近月期价继续走低-20250829
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 10:10
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests a bearish approach for egg investment. Currently, the egg market is facing abundant supply due to high egg - laying hen inventory, new - laid eggs from previously replenished hens, and continuous cold - storage egg outflows. At the same time, terminal demand is weak, the high - temperature weather makes the market cautious, and breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices to reduce inventory. The industrial capacity reduction is slow, which may continue to restrict egg prices during the school - opening and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking seasons. The futures price generally maintains a weak trend under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a bearish approach [6]. - **Market Review**: This week, the egg price continued to decline. The closing price of the 2510 contract was 2939 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 96 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: High egg - laying hen inventory, new - laid eggs from previously replenished hens, and cold - storage egg outflows lead to sufficient supply. Weak terminal demand, high - temperature caution, and low - price sales by breeding enterprises result in lower - than - expected spot prices and continuous losses for the breeding side. Slow industrial capacity reduction may restrict egg prices during peak seasons. The futures price remains weak [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Top 20 Positions**: The egg futures 10 - contract continued to decline, with a position of 493,762 lots, an increase of 59,481 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 42,469, with little change in net short positions [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3116 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 59 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 177 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of eggs was - 383 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Spot Prices**: As of August 28, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.94 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.94 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%. The national new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [39]. - **Laying - Hen Culling Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen culling index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%. The national culling age was 512 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 29, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2364.71 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Prices and Breeding Profits**: As of August 22, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.15 yuan per hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Egg - Laying Hen Chick and Culled - Hen Prices**: As of August 22, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.2 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 10.1 yuan per kilogram [60]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87% and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons [64]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: The report shows the company's price - to - earnings ratio changes, but no specific analysis is provided [66].
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250829
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 02:02
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 2909, the closing price was 2843, down 66 or -2.27%, with a trading volume of 39,229 and an open interest of 21,965, a decrease of 15,222. For the 2510 contract, the previous settlement price was 2997, the closing price was 2930, down 67 or -2.24%, with a trading volume of 542,102 and an open interest of 528,944, an increase of 13,068. For the 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3047, the closing price was 2960, down 87 or -2.86%, with a trading volume of 190,173 and an open interest of 257,219, an increase of 40,608 [7] - **Spot Market**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.33 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. The 10 - contract fell 2.24%. The peak - season spot price started late this year, and the market pressure emerged in late July. The price correction in July was about 0.5 yuan/jin, indicating large supply pressure. In August, the expected spot price rebound did not occur, and the price continued to be under pressure [7] Operational Suggestions - Do not recommend investors to buy at the bottom as there is no technical support and no sign of spot price increase. Wait for the increase in culling volume and the boost from Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking, which may bring a rebound, but it is difficult to time. In general, the egg market has oversupply. If the low egg price affects subsequent replenishment, a fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter. Short - term fluctuations may be large, so it is recommended to avoid risks [7] Group 3: Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens**: As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.356 billion, a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year increase, with continuous growth for 7 months [8] - **Chick Hatchlings**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, a decrease compared with June and the same period in 2024. The recent low breeding profits have started to change farmers' attitude towards capacity expansion, and the year - on - year decrease in July was the first this year [8][9] - **Culling**: The culling volume has been increasing recently, the price of culled chickens is under great pressure, and the culling age has been significantly advanced. However, more and longer - term over - culling is needed to restore the supply - demand balance [7]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250825
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 06:47
Report Overview - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Industry: Eggs [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently in a state of oversupply, with significant pressure on prices. The spot market has been weak, and the futures market has also shown a downward trend. In the short term, the market may experience large fluctuations, and it is recommended to avoid risks. A potential rebound may occur after increased culling and the demand from Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day备货, but timing is crucial. If low egg prices lead to a decrease in subsequent replenishment, a fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - Egg futures contracts showed different trends. The 2509 contract closed at 2920, down 6 points or 0.21%, with a trading volume of 87,006 and an open interest of 59,422 (a decrease of 10,271). The 2510 contract closed at 3033, down 2 points or 0.07%, with a trading volume of 526,351 and an open interest of 434,281 (a decrease of 18,629). The 2511 contract closed at 3100, up 10 points or 0.32%, with a trading volume of 119,383 and an open interest of 179,758 (an increase of 3,336). - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.13 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main consuming areas was 3.32 yuan/jin, also down 0.10 yuan/jin [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: - Due to the weak spot market and the lack of technical support in the futures market, it is not recommended to buy at the bottom. A potential rebound may occur after increased culling and the demand from Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day备货, but it is difficult to time. In the short term, it is advisable to avoid risks as the market may fluctuate greatly [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.356 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, showing an upward trend for 7 consecutive months [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June (40.75 million) and the same period in 2024 (41.68 million). Although it was a moderately high monthly replenishment volume in the past 8 years, the low breeding profits in the past two months have started to change farmers' expansion mindset, and the decrease in July was the first this year [9][10]. - **Culling**: The culling volume has been increasing recently, with the average culling age at 500 days as of August 21, 6 days earlier than the previous week and 6 days earlier than last month. However, more and longer - term over - culling is needed to restore the supply - demand balance [8][10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the basis of the egg 09 contract, the price difference between the 09 and 10 contracts, the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, egg farming profits, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas, and the seasonal trend of the egg 09 contract, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [12][13][15]
鸡蛋市场周报:现货价格偏弱调整,近月期价继续走低-20250822
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market continued to decline this week. The closing price of the 2510 contract was 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 149 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - Currently, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishments is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further increases the supply pressure [8]. - Terminal demand is weak. High - temperature weather makes the market cautious, and demand is sluggish. To reduce inventory, breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations, and the breeding end has been in a loss state [8]. - With the start of school - opening stockpiling and the Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. However, due to weak spot prices and high - production capacity pressure, the futures price generally maintains a weak trend [8]. - The strategy recommendation is to participate in a bearish manner [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The egg price continued to decline this week. The 2510 contract closed at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 149 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - **Supply Situation**: High laying - hen inventory, large pressure from newly - opened laying hens, and continuous release of cold - storage eggs increase supply pressure [8]. - **Demand Situation**: Terminal demand is weak, and high - temperature weather makes the market cautious. However, demand is expected to improve with school - opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in a bearish manner [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 10 - contract of egg futures continued to decline, with a position of 434,281 lots, an increase of 118,589 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 42,652, and the net short position increased compared to last week [14]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 3 [18]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3057 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 9 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 24 yuan per ton [24]. - **Futures Inter - Month Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of egg futures was - 218 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of August 21, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.03 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.89 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%, and the national new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [40]. - **Laying - Hen Elimination Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national elimination - laying - hen index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%, and the national elimination - hen age was 512 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2373.53 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3000 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of August 15, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was - 0.26 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [55]. - **Laying - Hen Chick and Elimination - Hen Prices**: As of August 15, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of elimination hens was 10.94 yuan per kilogram [60]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 7.87%, and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons compared to the previous month [65].
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:50
Report Overview - Report Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure in the egg market this year is significant, with the peak - season price callback reaching nearly 0.5 yuan/jin, compared to the usual 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/jin. The logic of price increase during the peak season is weakening, causing continuous declines in near - month contracts. The near - month 09 contract has squeezed out the premium and fallen below 3200 points. The futures market sentiment is extremely low. The near - month contracts may still be bearish in the long - term, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter if the low egg prices are reflected in subsequent replenishment data [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 all declined. The 2509 contract fell 2.91% to 3098, the 2510 contract fell 2.51% to 3113, and the 2511 contract fell 2.64% to 3208. The national egg price rose, with the average price in the main production areas at 3.28 yuan/jin and in the main sales areas at 3.47 yuan/jin, both up 0.17 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The peak - season price increase logic has weakened due to supply pressure and cold - storage egg outflows. The near - month 09 contract has squeezed out the premium. The futures market sentiment is low. The near - month contracts may be bearish in the long - term, and long - position opportunities are risky. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens**: The inventory of in - production laying hens is on the rise. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory was about 1.356 billion, a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, down from 40.75 million in June and 41.68 million in the same period in 2024. The decline in July was the first year - on - year decrease this year [9]. - **Hen Culling**: From the first to the third week of August 14, the national hen culling volume showed a downward trend, and the current absolute value is close to the level of the previous three years. As of August 14, the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week and one day later than last month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the basis of the egg 09 contract, the price difference between the egg 09 and 10 contracts, the average price in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of the egg 09 contract, the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, and the egg - chicken breeding profit [12][13][16].
高存栏背景下,旺季可能难旺
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 09:21
Report Overview - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Egg Weekly Report 2025 - 8 - 18 [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - Supply: Bearish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Neutral [3] - Strategy: Bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of culled chickens from sample breeding enterprises continued to decline, the culling age fluctuated slightly, the price difference between large and small eggs oscillated at a high level, and the price of chicks continued to drop [3] - The high price difference between large and small eggs and the relatively strong price of culled chickens indicate more new additions and fewer culls, which may suppress the price elasticity in the traditional consumption peak season [3] - This year, the capacity reduction is insufficient, the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is premature, and the egg - laying rate decline due to high temperature is getting smaller, so the rebound momentum in the peak season is limited [3] - This week, the sales volume in the main sales areas and the shipping volume in the main production areas decreased slightly, and the inventory in the circulation and production links also decreased slightly [3] - Traders are afraid of price drops, purchase cautiously, and the overall sales in the production areas are a bit slow [3] - The breeding profit has rebounded slightly and is near the break - even point, and the egg - feed ratio is at the lowest level in the same period of the past 4 years [3] - The egg futures contracts in the delivery month are slightly at a discount, while the other contracts are slightly at a premium [3] - The price difference between the near and far - term egg futures has dropped significantly and is at a moderately high level [3] - Due to the change of the main contract of egg futures, the net short position of institutions in September decreased, while that in October increased [3] - Under the background of high inventory, the near - term supply pressure is large, and the far - term situation will gradually improve with the strengthening of capacity reduction expectations [3] - Before the capacity is cleared due to breeding losses, the pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength of egg futures is expected to continue, and it is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of egg 9 - 1 [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - Sub - sections include spot price (comparison between main production area price and main sales area price), egg basis (basis of each egg futures contract), egg price difference (price difference of each egg futures contract), and futures institutional net position (long - to - short ratio of institutional positions in September and October egg futures contracts) [4][7][10][13] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects such as egg - laying hen inventory and its structure, culling situation (culled chicken price and average culling age), replenishment situation (price of commercial egg - laying chicks and hatching egg utilization rate), and size - code situation (prices of large and small eggs and seasonal chart of price difference) [16][18][20][23] Demand Analysis - Includes发货量&销量 (sales volume in main sales areas and shipping volume in main production areas), inventory (production - link inventory and circulation - link inventory), and substitutes (seasonal charts of egg - to - pork price ratio and egg - to - vegetable price ratio) [26][28][31] Profit Analysis - Comprises breeding profit (current profit vs. expected profit and comprehensive egg - laying hen breeding profit) and egg - feed ratio (egg - feed ratio and its break - even point, and seasonal chart of egg - feed ratio) [34][37]
鸡蛋市场周报:现货回暖幅度有限,近月期价继续走低-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 09:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market has continued to decline this week, with the 2510 contract closing at 3,182 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 75 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - Currently, the egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened egg - laying hens from previous supplementary stocking is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further exacerbates the supply pressure [8]. - Terminal demand is weak. High - temperature weather has increased the substitutes for egg consumption, leading to low market demand for eggs. To reduce inventory, breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations, and the breeding end has been in a loss state [8]. - With the start of school opening stockpiling and the Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. In the near - term contracts, the futures prices generally maintain a weak trend under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity, while the long - term contracts are relatively more resistant to decline [8]. - The recommended strategy is to participate in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - The 2510 contract of eggs continued to decline, closing at 3,182 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 75 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the pressure of newly - opened egg - laying hens is large. Cold - storage eggs are continuously released, increasing supply pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and substitutes for egg consumption are increasing. The spot price is lower than expected, and the breeding end is in a loss state [8]. - With school opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement, demand may pick up, potentially driving up egg prices. Near - term contracts tend to be weak, while long - term contracts are relatively resistant to decline [8]. - The recommended strategy is short - term participation [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 10 - contract continued to decline, with a position of 315,692 lots, an increase of 110,551 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 33,540, and the net short position increased compared to last week [14]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 3 [18]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3,066 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 180 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 116 yuan per ton [24]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of eggs was reported at - 393 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of August 14, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.23 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 4.74 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side Indicators**: As of June 30, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was 111.91, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The national new - chick index was 76.07, a month - on - month decrease of 28.76% [40]. - **Elimination Indicators**: As of June 30, 2025, the national eliminated egg - laying hen index was 104.09, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22%. The national average age of eliminated chickens was 501 days [45]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 14, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3,020 yuan per ton [49]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of August 8, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.31 yuan per chicken, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.70 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Prices of Egg - laying Chicken Chicks and Eliminated Chickens**: As of August 8, 2025, the average price of egg - laying chicken chicks in the main producing areas was 3.85 yuan per chick, and the average price of eliminated chickens in the main producing areas was 11.34 yuan per kilogram [60]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In May 2025, China's total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons or 7.87% year - on - year compared to 11,784.06 tons in the same period of the previous year, and a decrease of 81.14 tons month - on - month compared to 12,792.51 tons in the previous month [66]. 3.4. Representative Enterprise - A simple introduction to Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is provided, but specific content mainly shows the change in its price - earnings ratio, and no in - depth analysis is given [68].