Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound, with Bitcoin rising over 4% and Ethereum over 3%, driven by oversold conditions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 27, Bitcoin's price reached $91,420, marking a cumulative increase of over 13% from its low of $80,843 on November 21 [4]. - The total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market reached $301 million (approximately 2.1 billion RMB), with over 100,000 traders liquidated within 24 hours [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving the Rebound - The rebound is attributed to two main factors: the significant prior decline in prices leading to a technical rebound, and the rising expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with an 84.9% probability of this occurring in December [5]. - The probability of cumulative rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in January is estimated at 67.2%, with a 21.6% chance of a total cut of 50 basis points [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Speculation - Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the National Economic Council, is considered the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to a more dovish monetary policy [6]. - Hassett's potential appointment is seen as a move to align the Federal Reserve with President Trump's economic policies, particularly regarding interest rate cuts [6]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the recent rebound, Bitcoin's price is still down over 27% from its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October [8]. - Analysts warn that the asset may still be at risk of entering a bear market, indicating ongoing volatility in the cryptocurrency sector [8].

Core Viewpoint - The spot gold price fluctuated around $4150, slightly below the one-week high of $4173.42 reached on Wednesday, influenced by the Federal Reserve's Beige Book and market expectations for a potential rate cut in December [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market continues to bet on the Federal Reserve implementing a rate cut in December, as the Beige Book did not diminish expectations for short-term easing policies [1] - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve remains a significant factor supporting gold prices, with recent reports indicating that the White House National Economic Council Director Hassett is a leading candidate to succeed Chairman Powell [1] Group 2: Key Figures - Spot gold price was around $4150 during early Asian trading on Thursday, compared to the previous high of $4173.42 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest data provides sufficient reasons for the Federal Reserve to consider further interest rate cuts, as indicated by Fed Governor Milan [1] Economic Indicators - Since the September policy meeting, all received data points towards a dovish stance, with both inflation and employment showing signs of weakness [1] - Inflation data has come in below expectations, and core pressures are continuing to ease, suggesting a need for monetary policy adjustment [1] - The labor market is also showing signs of slowing down, reinforcing the argument for further easing rather than maintaining the current stance [1] Policy Implications - The data should lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish approach regarding interest rate decisions, rather than a wait-and-see attitude [1] - Milan emphasizes that all these indicators should push the Fed towards a more dovish position on rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is approaching the critical 155 level against the US dollar, raising speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities, but major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America believe immediate intervention is unlikely as current conditions do not meet the usual criteria for action [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The yen depreciated approximately 4% against the dollar in October, making it the worst-performing currency among G-10 currencies [1]. - As of Tuesday, the yen fell further to 154.48, driven by market interpretations of Prime Minister Kishida's inclination towards fiscal expansion and dovish monetary policy [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs and Bank of America suggest that the yen's recent weakness is primarily due to the repricing of Japan's fiscal risk premium and adjustments in short-term interest rate expectations [4]. Group 2: Intervention Triggers - Goldman Sachs indicates that intervention likelihood will significantly increase only when the USD/JPY exchange rate reaches the 161-162 range, while Bank of America suggests a meaningful policy response may occur if the rate tests 158 [1][4]. - Historical context shows that the last intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance occurred in 2024, with intervention levels around 157.99 to 161.76 [4]. Group 3: Future Predictions - Bank of America maintains a year-end forecast of 155 for the exchange rate but notes an increased risk of the rate overshooting to 160 by Q4 2025 [5]. - Goldman Sachs expects the yen to gradually appreciate as hedging costs decrease and the dollar weakens, with potential acceleration if US labor market data worsens [6]. - However, there are warnings that unexpected fiscal stimulus measures from Japan or stronger-than-expected US economic performance could undermine expectations for yen appreciation [7].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the key conditions for intervention in the foreign exchange market have not yet been met, despite the rising USD/JPY exchange rate approaching 155 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In October, the USD/JPY increased by approximately 4%, making the yen the worst-performing major currency among G-10 currencies [4]. - The recent poor performance of the yen is primarily driven by Japan's fiscal risk premium and the repricing of short-term interest rate expectations by the Bank of Japan [2][4]. Group 2: Government and Central Bank Actions - Japanese officials have expressed concerns over the rapid and unilateral movements in the foreign exchange market, with Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stating that they are closely monitoring the situation with a sense of urgency [4]. - The last intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance occurred in 2024 at USD/JPY levels of approximately 157.99, 159.45, 160.17, and 161.76 [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the yen will gradually appreciate in the long term as hedging costs decrease and the USD weakens, although this trend could accelerate if U.S. labor market data deteriorates [5]. - Analysts from Bank of America suggest that the USD/JPY may test the 158 level before triggering substantial policy responses, maintaining a year-end forecast of 155 while noting an increased risk of reaching 160 by Q4 2025 [5].

Group 1 - The US dollar has corrected higher despite dovish signals, indicating a market reaction to profit-taking by short sellers [1] - The market is anticipating new narratives and drivers for price action as the likelihood of three interest rate declines in 2025 is already priced in [1][4] - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, but GDP growth data for Q3 is not yet available, making recession predictions difficult [2] Group 2 - The 10-2 spread remains above zero, indicating a balanced situation, while the US manufacturing PMI has been below 50 since February, signaling weakness [3] - Despite weak signals, US stocks have performed steadily, with indices reaching new all-time highs alongside Gold [3] - The upcoming PCE index publication on September 25th is crucial for assessing inflation and interest rate stability [4] Group 3 - The official beginning of the interest rate decline cycle in the US may lead to speculation around selling the US dollar coming to an end [5] - Stronger-than-expected inflation data could lead to a rebound in EUR/USD and other USD-related pairs, while failure to break resistance may indicate Euro weakness against the dollar [5]

Core Viewpoint - European stock markets opened higher, with the German DAX index rising over 1% and the Euro Stoxx 50 index increasing nearly 1% [1] - U.S. stock index futures also saw an uptick, with the S&P 500 futures up by 0.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is perceived as not overly dovish, yet it still provides some benefits for risk assets [1] Market Performance - The French, Spanish, and Italian stock markets also showed positive performance, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment in Europe [1] - The typical market behavior of dip buyers is noted, as they tend to steer market narratives in their favor [1] Economic Outlook - The focus is on U.S. economic data, which needs to validate that the dovish market pricing for October and December is incorrect [1]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank predicts that due to Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank gold purchases, gold will continue its record-breaking rally, with an average price of $4,000 per ounce by 2026, up from a previous estimate of $3,700 [1] - The report indicates that central bank gold purchases could reach 900 tons next year, primarily from China, and that the likelihood of further gold price increases outweighs the possibility of a correction to fair value [1][2] - Gold prices have surged approximately 40% this year, recently surpassing the inflation-adjusted record high set in 1980, driven by ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding U.S. President Trump's recent attacks on the Federal Reserve have heightened market anxiety, with expectations for a more dovish monetary policy supporting non-yielding gold [2] - Deutsche Bank's latest forecasts do not account for potential risks to Federal Reserve independence, although changes in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) membership could introduce uncertainty in policy responses [2] - Goldman Sachs indicated that if the Federal Reserve's independence is compromised, gold prices could potentially soar to nearly $5,000 per ounce with even a small shift in investor holdings from U.S. Treasuries to gold [2] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 silver price target from $40 to $45 per ounce, citing a fifth consecutive year of physical supply shortages for silver [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a new high, driven by investor expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and considerations of further monetary policy easing in the coming months [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 16, gold prices briefly surpassed the previous day's record high of approximately $3,685 per ounce, supported by a decline in the dollar index to a seven-week low [1] - As of 9:01 AM Singapore time, gold prices increased by 0.2% to $3,686.39 [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The market has already priced in expectations for a rate cut this week, but investors are keenly awaiting the Federal Reserve's latest quarterly economic and interest rate forecasts, along with Chairman Powell's press conference [1] - A series of weak labor market data and the absence of significant inflation surprises have enhanced the outlook for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which is favorable for gold [1] Group 3: Political Pressure - President Trump has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve, including attempts to remove Fed Governor Cook, which has reinforced market bets on a more dovish monetary policy [1] - The confirmation of Trump's economic advisor Stephen Moore as a Federal Reserve Governor coincides with this monetary policy meeting [1]

Group 1 - President Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, potentially allowing him to appoint a more dovish candidate, which could lead to greater control over the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The market reacted negatively to the news, with the dollar weakening across the board, short-term Treasury yields declining, and safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin gaining popularity [1][3] - Analysts express concerns that this action undermines trust in the Federal Reserve as an independent institution, which may pose long-term challenges to the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [2][4] Group 2 - The expectation of a more dovish Federal Reserve following Cook's dismissal is likely to increase the prospects of interest rate cuts, further pressuring the dollar [3][4] - The demand for gold, yen, and Bitcoin is rising as investors seek to hedge against the potential long-term implications of diminished Federal Reserve independence [4][5] - Despite the market's initial reaction, analysts believe that the potential risks have not been fully priced in, indicating high uncertainty for the future [4][5]