"预见2026：李稻葵开年经济大家谈"于2月2日举行。中国人民大学区域国别研究院院长翟东升表示， 对2026年的黄金价格不是那么乐观，因为他对这个世界总是充满乐观，2026年的全球地缘政治的动荡性 不至于比2025年更大。 "预见2026：李稻葵开年经济大家谈"于2月2日举行。中国人民大学区域国别研究院院长翟东升表示， 对2026年的黄金价格不是那么乐观，因为他对这个世界总是充满乐观，2026年的全球地缘政治的动荡性 不至于比2025年更大。 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：李思阳 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：李思阳 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京1月29日电（记者 翟卓）北京时间29日凌晨，美联储公布新年首次利率决议，如期"按兵 不动"暂停降息，不过也有两位理事投出反对票倾向降息。 由于市场对此已有充分预期，当天10年期美债收益率及美元指数仅小幅上行，纽约股市三大股指涨跌不 一，黄金在更多因素的综合影响下续创新高。 分析认为，鉴于此次会议并未释放鹰派信号，短期内美元指数或延续偏弱运行，人民币汇率在这一相对 友好的外部环境下也有望维持偏强震荡；往后看，美联储在主席鲍威尔任期结束前或均维持利率稳定， 首次降息或推迟至二季度落地。 美联储如期"按兵不动" 降息进程进入"观察期" 美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间保持在3.5%至3.75%，为自去年9月起连续三次降息后首次维持利 率不变。 在12位美联储票委中，有10人支持"按兵不动"，但米兰及沃勒投下了反对票，二人均由美国总统特朗普 任命，也都主张降息25个基点。中金公司研报指出，沃勒投下反对票或与其希望被提名为下一任美联储 主席有关。 "此次分歧反映出在中期选举等背景下，货币政策正承受越来越大的政治压力。"广开首席产业研究院副 院长刘涛说。据美国财长贝森特日前透露，特朗普已将接 ...

Market Overview - US stock market opened slightly higher with the Dow Jones up 0.19%, S&P 500 up 0.17%, and Nasdaq Composite up 0.28% [1] Precious Metals and Mining - Gold reached a new high above $5,100, leading to significant gains in precious metal mining stocks, with Newmont Mining up 2.3% and Endeavour Silver up 6.5% [1] Rare Earth Sector - US rare earth prices surged over 20%, supported by approximately $1.6 billion in funding from the US government [1] - USA Rare Earth saw a 20.8% increase following investment from the Trump administration [1] Company-Specific Movements - CoreWeave stock rose 9% after Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment to acquire Class A common stock in the company [1] - Allied Gold increased by 3.5% as it agreed to be acquired by Hong Kong-based Zijin Mining for CAD 5.5 billion [1] - Kingsoft Cloud rose 6.2% following a strategic upgrade of its StarStream platform [1] Declines - Revolution experienced a decline of 21.1% after Merck terminated acquisition talks with the company [1]

2026.01. 26 本文字数：2438，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 进入2026年，美国宏观经济政策正悬在两个致命的"不确定性"之上：一是美国最高法院对总统关税权力的最 终裁决；二是美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。 从本周起，美国最高法院步入长达四周的休庭期，这意味着备受关注的关税案进入了代价昂贵的"空窗期"。 与此同时，美联储新任主席的竞争则来到"白热化"阶段，贝莱德高管里德（Rick Rieder）当前被视为领跑 者。 这两大议题共同构成了当前市场研判的核心变量，全球投资咨询公司BCA Research首席新兴市场/中国策 略师阿瑟·布达吉安（Arthur Budaghyan）对第一财经记者表示，在充分评估上述两大事件的不同情境后， 他的核心观点是"看空美元、减持美股，并对包括美股在内的全球股票市场持谨慎态度"。 关税案悬而未决 去年11月5日，美国最高法院就美国总统特朗普是否有权依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施关税 一案听取了首轮口头辩论。彼时，摩根大通对政治策略师的调查显示，美国政府依据IEEPA征收的关税在 2025年底前被推翻的概率高达70%。然而，最高法院至今仍未作 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold is influenced by various factors, including interest rates, political pressures, and market speculation, with current prices showing a slight decline from recent highs. Price Trends - Gold futures opened at $4,610 per troy ounce, down 0.1% from the previous closing price of $4,614.70, with an all-time high reached at $4,620 [1][4] - Over the past year, gold has seen a significant increase of 74.5% as of December 29, with a weekly increase of 3.6% and a monthly increase of 7.8% [4][7] Market Influences - The investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell by the Trump administration may continue to impact gold prices in 2026, as it raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence and its ability to control inflation [2] - Lower interest rates are beneficial for gold, as they reduce the income from competing assets like cash [3] Investment Considerations - Investors should be aware of price risk when purchasing gold at high prices, as buying high in hopes of short-term gains can be a challenging strategy [9] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a diversification asset for both central banks and individual investors, recovering from decades of low prices [9] - It is advised that gold should primarily act as a stabilizer in a diversified portfolio rather than a driver of high returns [10] Speculation Risks - Positions in gold, whether in bullion, coins, or ETFs, should be viewed as speculative due to the unpredictable nature of commodity prices influenced by macroeconomic and political factors [11]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has increased due to heightened geopolitical risks following a U.S. military strike in Venezuela, which has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Gold futures opened at $4,368.30 per troy ounce, reflecting a 0.9% increase from the previous closing price of $4,329.60 [1]. - The price of gold rose above $4,400 during early trading [1]. - Gold's one-year gain as of December 29 was 74.5% [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influence - The U.S. strike in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, has increased geopolitical tensions and subsequently boosted gold demand [2]. - Criticism of the U.S. action has come from leaders in Cuba, Russia, and Iran, indicating a rise in geopolitical risk [2]. Group 3: Market Trends - The U.S. Dollar Index has gained 0.37% in 2026 after a decline of over 9% in 2025, coinciding with the increased demand for gold [3]. - Gold prices have shown a weekly change of -0.1%, a monthly increase of +3.9%, and a yearly increase of +64.3% [9]. Group 4: Factors Affecting Gold Prices - Key factors influencing gold prices include geopolitical events, central bank buying trends, inflation, interest rates, and mining production [12].

Group 1: Technology Sector Performance - The seven major tech companies have shown significant divergence in stock performance since the beginning of the year, with Google leading at a 66.29% increase, followed by Nvidia at 40.20%, and Microsoft at 16.42% [4][5] - The AI sector is experiencing a bubble, with OpenAI planning to invest $1.4 trillion over the next few years, while facing cumulative losses of $115 billion by 2029 [5][6] - High valuations are a concern, with Palantir's price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 180 times, while Nvidia and Microsoft are below 30 times [5] Group 2: Gold Price Predictions - Institutions predict gold prices could reach as high as $5,000 per ounce, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs among those forecasting significant increases [8] - Key support factors for gold prices include central bank purchases and the anticipated easing cycle of the Federal Reserve [8] Group 3: Currency and Economic Outlook - Deutsche Bank suggests the US dollar is currently overvalued by 10%-15%, predicting a decline in the dollar index to the 98-100 range by the end of 2026 due to potential Fed rate cuts [10][11] - Citigroup and Standard Chartered expect the dollar may rebound in mid-2026 due to the resilience of the US economy driven by AI investments [12][13] Group 4: European Market Sentiment - The Stoxx 600 index has seen a 17.01% increase year-to-date, with a consensus among analysts predicting further growth, targeting around 620 points by the end of next year [15][16] - Analysts are optimistic about sectors with structural growth and cyclical recovery potential, particularly in industrials, IT, and utilities [17] Group 5: Emerging Markets Outlook - Emerging markets are expected to outperform developed markets for the second consecutive year, with a projected return of 8% for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in 2026 [19][20] - UBS highlights Chinese companies in the AI sector as having significant potential, while Morgan Stanley notes a 30%-50% discount in valuations compared to developed markets [20][21]

Group 1: Economic Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference has set the tone for 2026, emphasizing the continuation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with expectations for further space in both areas during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3][6] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is likely to remain the same as this year, but total fiscal spending may slightly increase due to economic growth, maintaining a certain level of fiscal intensity [6][7] - Monetary policy is expected to be more flexible and efficient, with options for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, as well as the continued use of structural monetary policy tools [6][8] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - The primary task for economic work in 2026 is to expand domestic demand, with consumption and investment as the dual engines, addressing current issues of weak internal momentum and insufficient interaction between consumption and investment [9][10] - The government aims to strengthen domestic circulation and improve the interaction between domestic and international cycles, preparing for long-term and complex international economic challenges [9][10] - Measures to boost investment include increasing central budget investment, optimizing the use of local government special bonds, and enhancing the role of new policy financial tools to stimulate private investment [11] Group 3: Currency and Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate has shown resilience against external pressures, with expectations for a moderate appreciation in 2026, although caution is advised against unilateral bets on the RMB's performance due to mixed influencing factors [13][14] - The central economic work conference reiterated the goal of maintaining the RMB exchange rate's basic stability, balancing against excessive depreciation or appreciation [15][16] Group 4: Gold Price Trends - The outlook for gold prices is cautiously optimistic, supported by the logic of "gold re-monetization" and "global asset rebalancing," with a shift in demand from central banks to private investors [17][18] - The current gold price rally is driven by both central bank purchases and increasing private investment demand, indicating a potential for further price increases [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2026 will focus on increasing consumption rates as a key strategy, with a shift in policy emphasis towards income-driven consumption [4][5] - The central economic work conference highlights the prominent contradiction of strong domestic supply versus weak demand, indicating the importance of consumption in the policy framework [4] - Policies to stimulate consumption will include measures such as promoting service consumption, improving the income mechanism, and addressing housing and education costs [5][6] Group 2 - Monetary policy has room for further easing, with potential structural tools focusing on service consumption and technological innovation [6][9] - The bond market is expected to see a shift in supply-demand dynamics, with nominal growth rates influencing long-term bond yields [9][8] - The "Five Articles" initiative is anticipated to achieve breakthroughs in technology and inclusive finance, with a focus on supporting innovation and enhancing employment security [10] Group 3 - The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately in 2026, supported by external factors such as the US interest rate cycle and internal economic stability [7][11] - The gold market is projected to experience increased volatility, driven by expectations of weakened dollar credit and geopolitical risks [11][12] - The strategies of "internal circulation" and "high-level opening" are seen as mutually supportive, enhancing domestic demand while expanding international trade [13]

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the RMB has been driven by a weakening dollar index and increasing year-end settlement demand, with offshore RMB breaking the 7.02 mark against the USD for the first time since October 2024 [2] - The total trading volume of A-shares has exceeded 400 trillion yuan for the first time in history, with an average turnover rate of approximately 1.74%, potentially reaching a new high since 2016 [2] - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $4,510 and silver futures exceeding $71.79 per ounce, marking significant annual increases of over 71% for gold and approximately 147% for silver [2] Group 2 - President Xi Jinping emphasized the need for central enterprises to focus on their main responsibilities and enhance core competitiveness, while promoting technological innovation and deepening reforms [3] - The Ministry of Transport expects fixed asset investment in transportation to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan this year, with significant expansions in high-speed rail and highways [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission has clarified kindergarten fee policies, allowing for specific types of fees while prohibiting others, aiming to standardize and regulate charges [3] Group 3 - The A-share market showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.07% and a total market turnover of 1.92 trillion yuan, while sectors like lithium batteries and energy metals saw gains [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 0.11%, with technology stocks generally weakening, while new stocks like Nobi Kan saw significant gains [5] - The issuance of new stock funds has surpassed 400 billion units for the first time, with 808 new stock funds established this year, marking a historical high [5] Group 4 - The commercial aerospace sector has made significant progress with the completion of IPO guidance for Blue Arrow Aerospace, marking an important step in its capital market journey [6] - Analysts are optimistic about the upcoming spring market, expecting positive policies to boost investor confidence and improve corporate earnings, suggesting a focus on technology and consumer sectors [6] Group 5 - The State Council has outlined key tasks for the 2026 housing and urban construction work, emphasizing the need for local governments to optimize real estate policies and enhance project management [9] - The National Energy Administration aims for a total installed capacity of 15 million kilowatts for solar thermal power by 2030, reflecting a commitment to renewable energy development [10] Group 6 - The recent surge in AI-related bond issuance has pushed U.S. corporate bond sales close to historical records, with AI-related debt accounting for about 30% of net issuance [19] - The Chinese securities market has seen a strong performance in the bond sector, with a notable increase in the trading of long-term government bonds [19]