Core Viewpoint - The current precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with extreme bullish sentiment on one side and sudden bearish movements on the other, indicating a potential turning point for precious metals [5][10]. Short-term Disturbances - Investors should avoid acting as "purchasers" during the upcoming passive fund rebalancing, which is expected to exert selling pressure on silver (9%) and gold (3%) [16][18]. - Active funds are likely to preemptively reduce their holdings to lock in profits, suggesting that the current bullish trend in precious metals may soon end [20][21]. - It is advised to reduce positions in non-ferrous stocks to navigate this turbulent period [22]. Long-term Support for Gold Bull Market - The long-term bullish trend for gold is supported by four key factors: 1. Central banks have been net buyers of gold for three consecutive years, with purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually, and are projected to reach 1,086 tons in 2024 [31]. 2. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to support gold prices, with three cuts anticipated by 2025 [36][37]. 3. The global debt crisis, particularly in the U.S., has created a demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as debt levels exceed $36 trillion [42][45]. 4. Retail investors currently have a low allocation to gold, with U.S. gold ETFs comprising only 0.17% of private investment portfolios, indicating significant room for growth [49]. Market Trends and Predictions - Historical data shows that gold has consistently outperformed U.S. equities over the past 25 years, with a 20-year return rate of 761% compared to the S&P 500's 673% [64]. - The current gold price has surpassed $4,500, with a total market capitalization of $31.5 trillion, suggesting a strong valuation relative to historical peaks [66]. - Analysts predict that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, with some forecasts suggesting a potential rise to $10,000 per ounce by 2029, driven by multiple factors including the Fed's interest rate policies and global de-dollarization [69][72]. Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on defensive measures, such as reducing positions to avoid passive selling pressure, while long-term strategies should involve buying on dips as market volatility stabilizes [83][88]. - Investors are encouraged to consider gold-related ETFs for a straightforward investment approach that aligns with gold price movements [92].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the financial data and economic conditions in China, particularly focusing on the banking sector and macroeconomic indicators [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Loan Growth and Economic Trends** - In January, new loans amounted to 5.1 trillion yuan, indicating a typical credit peak season, but a slight decrease in loan growth is expected in the coming months, aligning with nominal economic growth trends [1][9]. - The demand for household credit remains weak due to multiple factors including a sluggish real estate market, stock market volatility, and declining consumer data [1][10]. 2. **Monetary Supply and Policy Environment** - M1 money supply growth has decreased to 4.9% year-on-year, while M2 growth remains stable at 8%, reflecting a relatively stable policy environment with no urgent need for adjustments [1][4]. - The central bank's financial data shows a year-on-year growth in social financing scale of 8.5%, with loan growth at 6.3%, indicating a stable overall performance but with some discrepancies from market expectations [2]. 3. **ETF Fund Flows and Market Sentiment** - Dividend ETFs continue to attract funds for low-positioning, while the technology sector shows weak liquidity. The CSI 500 ETF saw a net inflow close to 10 billion yuan, while tech-themed ETFs like AI, military, and semiconductors experienced significant net outflows [1][5][6]. - The banking sector is experiencing a daily net outflow of about 500 million yuan, but its fundamental improvement is considered highly certain, suggesting potential investment value [6]. 4. **Future Market Expectations** - An interest rate hike is anticipated around mid-2026 to address potential economic downturn risks. The banking sector's fundamentals are improving, but the overall upward potential is limited to about one or two percentage points [7][8]. - The consumer sector remains a market highlight, and the performance of innovative pharmaceutical stocks in Hong Kong is also noted [8]. 5. **Investment Policy and Economic Recovery** - Attention is required on the implementation of policies from the Central Economic Work Conference, particularly regarding "investment stabilization." Current market reactions are relatively muted, and there is a lack of new directions to boost investment growth [11]. - The potential for large-scale infrastructure projects or new monetary tools to support the economy is acknowledged, but the effectiveness may not match past initiatives like the 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan [11]. 6. **Market Dynamics and Risks** - The overall economic activity is showing signs of weakening, which is viewed as a healthy adjustment. The stock market requires strong policy signals to break out of its current stagnation [12]. - The impact of US-China competition is discussed, indicating that China is not at a disadvantage, which supports the RMB exchange rate and foreign capital allocation [13]. Additional Important Insights - The early loan disbursement by banks in October rather than December may influence corporate project growth [3]. - The current financial data suggests that without unexpected policy support, the stock market may struggle to maintain upward momentum [12]. - The debt market may see recovery opportunities following the Central Financial Conference, as high interest rates currently hinder fiscal debt issuance costs [12].

12月11日，未来数年黄金仍将具备向上突破的条件。强劲的官方机构采购、延续中的美元阶段性走弱、 进一步的美联储降息预期，以及全球不确定性，都构成金价在2026年创新高的重要推力。多家机构在展 望中表示，黄金有望成为大宗商品体系中持续突出的品种。NCE平台表示，这些宏观驱动因素的叠加， 正在为贵金属奠定新一轮结构性行情。 进入第二段，NCE平台认为，2026年的大宗商品整体表现仍可能受到能源供应宽松的压制，但贵金属板 块的利多因素却显得更为坚实。宽松的金融环境和改善的宏观预期为大宗资产提供了温和支撑，而供给 偏松的能源市场或限制综合收益表现。在这一背景下，黄金凭借其避险与资产配置价值脱颖而出。历史 显示，宽松周期往往为金价带来约一年半的延续增量，而当前的利率调整节奏与流动性环境也在重现类 似结构。 金价在2025年已经有出色表现，但仍存在进一步温和上涨的空间。持续的官方机构购金需求，以及通胀 与资产多元化需求，共同构成推动金价的重要因素。NCE平台认为，美联储进一步降息以及美元波动趋 稳，也可能带动黄金相关ETF的需求。贵金属在组合中的资本保值属性，正被越来越多投资者重新评 估。 机构的投资观点显示，在利率回落 ...

Group 1 - Recent cross-border ETFs have shown varying degrees of premium in the secondary market, with several products announcing premium notices last week, covering themes such as US and Japanese stocks [1] - The number and scale of newly issued ETFs have reached record highs in 2025, with 320 new ETFs launched and a total issuance scale of 249.68 billion yuan, significantly surpassing previous years [2] - As of November 14, 276 new actively managed equity funds have been established this year, with a total issuance scale of 141.068 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 132.25% [3] Group 2 - Notable fund manager Li Dehui plans to invest 1 million yuan in his newly launched fund, Morgan Huiqi Growth Mixed Fund, which opened for subscription on November 17 [4] - The market experienced a weak fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.46% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.11%, while the total trading volume in both markets was 1.91 trillion yuan, a decrease of 47.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] - Rare metal ETFs collectively strengthened, with the highest increase reaching 3.68% [6] Group 3 - The tungsten price has reached a historical high due to supply contraction and an increase in long-term contract prices, with a recent adjustment of 52,000 yuan/ton, boosting market bullish sentiment [9] - A new mixed securities investment fund, China Europe Medical Biology Mixed Fund, has been launched, managed by Zhao Lei, with a performance benchmark based on the CSI Biomedicine Index and other indices [9]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with New York gold CFD falling nearly 1%, leading to a decline of over 2% in related gold ETFs. Analysts suggest that increasing internal divisions within the Federal Reserve create substantial uncertainty regarding the interest rate cuts in December and beyond, limiting the sustainable bullish momentum for gold. Coupled with geopolitical considerations, gold prices may struggle to escape high-level fluctuations or even face a weaker trend in the future [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold-related ETFs saw a decline of over 2%, reflecting the negative impact of falling gold prices [1]. - Specific ETFs reported the following price changes: - Gold stock ETF (Code: 159562) decreased by 3.18% to 2.071 - Gold stock ETF (Code: 159321) decreased by 2.87% to 1.456 - Shanghai Gold ETF (Code: 159831) decreased by 2.81% to 8.932 - Shanghai Gold ETF (Code: 518600) decreased by 2.79% to 9.222 - Other ETFs also reported declines ranging from 2.67% to 2.75% [3].

| 代码 | 类型 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159830 | 商 | 上海金ETF T+0 | 9.115 | -0.174 | -1.87% | | 159812 | 商 | 黄金基金ETF T+0 | 8.720 | -0.164 | -1.85% | | 518880 | 個 | 黄金ETF T+0 | 8.751 | -0.163 | -1.83% | | 518600 | 南 | 上海金ETF T+0 | 9.125 | -0.169 | -1.82% | | 159937 | 商 | 黄金ETF基金 T+0 | 8.731 | -0.163 | -1.83% | | 159831 | ロ | 上海金ETF嘉实 T+O | 8.835 | -0.164 | -1.82% | | 518800 | 商 | 黄金基金ETF T+0 | 8.643 | -0.160 | -1.82% | | 518680 | 歴 | #ETF T+0 | 9.136 | -0.169 | -1.82% | | 518 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been on the rise since the end of August, with significant increases in both futures and spot prices, leading to a surge in gold-related ETFs and a record high in holdings for the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of September 30, COMEX gold futures reached a new high of $3,898 per ounce, while spot gold prices surpassed $3,869 per ounce [1] - The market sentiment towards gold is exceptionally strong, contributing to the increase in gold prices [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - Gold-related ETFs have shown strong performance, with the Gold Stock ETF (159562) up 2.21%, the China Gold ETF (518850) up 1.42%, and the Nonferrous Metal ETF Fund (516650) up 3.85% [1] - SPDR's holdings have reached 1,005.72 tons, marking the highest level since August 2022, with significant increases in holdings throughout September [1] Group 3: Citigroup's Price Forecast - Citigroup has raised its three-month price targets for gold and silver to $4,000 and $55 per ounce, respectively, reflecting a substantial upward adjustment for silver [1] - The bank suggests maintaining a bullish outlook in the short term, given the ongoing cyclical and structural tailwinds [1]

一、证券市场回顾 南财金融终端数据显示，上周(8月4日-8月8日,下同)，上证综指周内上涨2.11%，收于3635.13点，最高3645.37点；深证成指周内上涨1.25%，收于11128.67 点，最高11229.59点；创业板指周内上涨0.49%，收于2333.96点，最高2372.68点。在全球市场中，主要指数均上涨。纳斯达克综指上涨3.87%，道琼斯工业 指数上涨1.35%，标普500上涨2.43%。亚太地区，恒生指数上涨1.43%，日经225指数上涨2.5%。 上周股票型ETF跌幅最大的5只ETF及其收益率分别为：天弘恒生沪深港创新药精选50ETF(-2.54%)、易方达中证软件服务ETF(-2.41%)、华泰柏瑞中证沪港 深创新药产业ETF(-2.32%)、万家中证软件服务ETF(-2.22%)、银华中证中药ETF(-2.21%)。详情见下表: 二、ETF市场表现 1、股票型ETF整体市场表现 上周股票型ETF周度收益率中位数为1.32%%。其中按照不同分类，规模指数ETF中易方达中证2000ETF周度收益率最高，为4.26%；行业指数ETF中永赢国 证商用卫星通信产业ETF周度收益率最高，为7. ...

Market Overview - Major indices experienced a rebound this week (August 4-8, 2025), with A-shares showing an overall increase, specifically the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.11%, Shenzhen Component Index by 1.25%, and ChiNext Index by 0.48% [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, contributing to a cautious market sentiment [1] - The manufacturing PMI for July remained below the growth line, indicating a decline in demand, while the market showed a preference for conservative investments, with value sectors outperforming growth sectors [1] ETF Performance - Gold-related ETFs saw significant gains, with the Gold Stock ETF (159562) and Gold Stock ETF (517400) rising over 9%, driven by signals of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1] - The average increase for all ETFs in the market was 1.24%, with commodity ETFs performing particularly well, up by 1.77% [1] Fund Trends - There was a substantial net inflow of 10.767 billion yuan into the ETF market during the week, indicating high market activity [4] - Cross-border ETFs continued to perform strongly, with inflows reaching 9.841 billion yuan, while bond ETFs also attracted over 6.5 billion yuan [4][7] Bond ETF Activity - Bond ETFs experienced significant inflows amid rising risk aversion, with specific funds like Silver Hua Daily ETF (511880) and Short-term Bond ETF (511360) each seeing inflows exceeding 1.6 billion yuan [7][8] - The Short-term Bond ETF (511360) achieved a weekly trading volume exceeding 118.18 billion yuan, leading the market [8] Upcoming ETF Listings - Four new ETFs are set to launch next week, including the E Fund CSI A50 Enhanced Strategy ETF (512030), which aims to reflect the performance of the largest 50 companies in various sectors [9] - The Penghua National Robot Industry ETF (159278) will track the National Robot Index, focusing on core segments of the robotics industry [9][10] Industry Insights - The global gold mining companies are expected to see a continued increase in profit per ounce, with a projected tax-pre profit of $1,546 per ounce in 1H25, a 63% increase from 2024 [2] - The implementation of the "High-Quality Development Implementation Plan for the Gold Industry (2025-2027)" is anticipated to further enhance the growth potential of gold companies [2]

Market Overview - On May 29, the Xinchuang ETF rose by 6.41%, leading the ETF market, while several fintech and Hong Kong innovative drug-related ETFs increased by over 4% [1][8] - Gold-related ETFs collectively retreated, with the top ten declines in the ETF market being these products [1][8] - New funds continue to flow into the market, with 23 ETFs launched in May and 9 more set to debut, injecting incremental capital into the market [1][8] Macro News - The Central Committee and State Council issued opinions to enhance the market-oriented allocation of resource and environmental factors, aiming for a well-established carbon emission rights and water rights trading system by 2027 [3] - From January to April, large-scale light industry enterprises achieved revenue of 7.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and profits of 419.06 billion yuan, up 3.8% [3] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 710 billion yuan of 30-year fixed-rate bonds, with a coupon rate of 1.88% [3] Industry Developments - The first batch of silicon carbide wafers from the Changfei Advanced Wuhan base has officially been put into production, marking it as the largest silicon carbide semiconductor base in China, expected to contribute 30% of the domestic silicon carbide wafer capacity [10] - The base, with a total investment exceeding 20 billion yuan, aims to produce 360,000 six-inch silicon carbide wafers annually, meeting the manufacturing needs of 1.44 million electric vehicles [10] Company News - Honor's CEO announced at the launch of the Honor 400 series that the company has completed its restructuring and is preparing for an IPO, having engaged various intermediaries for the process [9][12] - Nvidia reported a revenue of 44.1 billion USD for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year, a 12% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 69% increase year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 15% quarter-on-quarter [12] - A new hydrogen energy investment fund initiated by Sinopec has been registered, with an initial scale of 5 billion yuan, focusing on the entire hydrogen energy industry chain [10]