甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/26 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 801 2217 2203 2355 - 2315 2410 264 322 -40 -25 - 801 2208 2178 2355 - 2285 2388 262 322 -29 0 - 801 2223 2200 2355 - 2285 2385 262 322 -7 0 - 801 2238 2220 2355 - 2285 2385 265 322 -22 -5 - 801 2263 2240 2345 - 2285 2385 267 - -3 -20 - 日度变化 0 25 20 -10 - 0 0 2 - 19 -15 - 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇往上往下都难，MTO利润卡住了上限，除非其余下游涨价，目前看来偏空或卖看涨 期权较合适。 塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Downstream MTO maintenance continues to increase, with Tianjin Bohua MTO advancing its maintenance to January 23, Xingxing shutting down for maintenance on January 12, and Ningbo Fude under maintenance from early December to late January. Port MTO maintenance drags down port demand. Supply disturbances depend on the Iranian situation, which has slowed down for now. Methanol port inventory has slightly increased this week, with Jiangsu de - stocking and Zhejiang stocking. Coal - based production maintains high - pressure operation, and southwest gas - based production is gradually restarting. Inland factories are in an inventory recovery cycle, and traditional downstream industries are in a seasonal off - season [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol spot - main futures basis in different regions, and the basis between methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong and the main futures, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][13] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference (excluding surcharges), and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][25][30] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - It includes figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol start - up rate (including integrated) [32][39] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures display price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan and Chongqing - 200 [36][43][45] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [47][51]

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/01/1 5 801 2247 2243 2345 - 2315 2435 - 322 - -25 - 2026/01/1 6 801 2230 2231 2345 - 2315 2435 264 322 -16 -25 - 2026/01/1 9 801 2217 2203 2355 - 2315 2410 264 322 -40 -25 - 2026/01/2 0 801 2208 2178 2355 - 2285 2388 262 322 -29 0 - 2026/01/2 1 801 2213 2200 2355 - 2285 2385 - - - 0 - 日度变化 0 5 22 0 - 0 -3 - - - 0 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇往上往下都难，MTO利润卡住了上限，除非其余下游涨价，目前看来偏空或卖看 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; No rating for inter - period and cross - variety [4] Core Viewpoints - After the situation in Iran eased, the methanol futures price on the port has continuously corrected. The port inventory has started to decline, and the port basis has rebounded. However, attention should be paid to the downstream MTO maintenance situation. Overseas, Iranian methanol plants are still undergoing winter maintenance [3]. - In the inland areas, coal - based methanol plants maintain high - pressure operation, and southwest gas - based plants are gradually restarting. Inland factories are in a period of continuous inventory increase, and the traditional downstream is in the seasonal off - season [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - This section includes multiple figures showing the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures in this part display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import price differences between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][27] III. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - It shows the total port inventory of methanol, the start - up rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the start - up rate of methanol in China [6][33][39] IV. Regional Price Differences - The section presents the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and the price differences between other regions [2][6][36] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][49][52]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Methanol**: With the ongoing fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance. Some plants like Xingxing, Shenghong, and Luxi have or plan to stop production. Methanol faces difficulties in moving up or down. MTO profit caps the upside, and unless other downstream products increase in price, it is currently more appropriate to be bearish or sell call options [2]. - **Plastic**: The market shows a volatile trend with stable spot prices and weak basis. Oil - and coal - based profits are deteriorating. Upstream coal - chemical industry and two - oil companies are reducing inventory, while social inventory is accumulating. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the supply - demand balance of LL in 05 is expected to face significant pressure [3]. - **PP**: The market is stable with a weak basis. Import and export profits are negative, and export volume is slightly declining. Supply is flat in January due to increased temporary maintenance plans. Overall inventory is neutral, and the supply - demand balance in 05 and later is expected to be slightly pressured, requiring PDH maintenance or continuous exports to improve [4]. - **PVC**: The basis shows a slight improvement. Transaction volume is average this week. Upstream raw material prices are stable, and comprehensive profit is low. Short - term seasonal production recovery is underway. Total inventory is still moderately high, and export volume remains flat. The long - term outlook is poor due to weak real - estate demand [6]. 3. Summary by Industry Methanol - **Price Data**: On January 2, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased by 9, and the price of South China spot decreased by 25. The price of Northwest discount to the market decreased by 22, and the price of Hebei discount to the market decreased by 30 [2]. - **Market Situation**: Iran conflict continues to ferment, and MTO plants have production cuts or shutdown plans. MTO profit restricts the upward movement of methanol prices [2]. Plastic - **Price Data**: On January 2, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene decreased by 20, the price of East China LD decreased by 125, and the price of East China HD decreased by 50. The import profit decreased by 27, and the two - oil inventory decreased by 15 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The market is volatile with stable spot prices and weak basis. Oil - and coal - based profits are worsening, and social inventory is accumulating. The supply of standard products is increasing [3]. PP - **Price Data**: On January 20, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of Shandong propylene remained unchanged, the price of East China PP decreased by 55, and the price of North China PP decreased by 25. The price of Shandong powder decreased by 80, and the price of East China copolymer decreased by 20 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The market is stable with a weak basis. Import and export profits are negative, and export volume is slightly declining. Supply is flat in January, and inventory is moderately high [4]. PVC - **Price Data**: On January 20, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of Shandong caustic soda decreased by 15, the price of East China电石 - based PVC increased by 20, and the price of Northwest PVC decreased by 20 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The basis shows a slight improvement. Transaction volume is average. Upstream raw material prices are stable, and comprehensive profit is low. Total inventory is moderately high, and export volume remains flat [6].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For methanol, the inland market has bottomed out, and the port is trading on significant inventory reduction. However, the pre - condition for large - scale inventory reduction is high MTO operation. Currently, MTO profit is average, which suppresses the upside of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Short - term shipments may remain normal. Attention should also be paid to changes in oil prices. The current limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors, and if oil prices drive up other products, it may lift the price ceiling [2] - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The basis for the 09 contract is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas market in Europe and the US is stable, as is Southeast Asia. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price spreads are oscillating, with LD weakening. The number of September maintenance is the same as the previous period. Recently, the domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [7] - For polypropylene, the upstream two major oil companies and the middle - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral. The European and US markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the propylene price is oscillating, and the powder production operation rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7] - For PVC, the basis is maintained at - 270 for the 01 contract, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. The downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. The northwest plants have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly decreased. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rates [7] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price data includes various spot prices (e.g., Jiangsu, South China, Lunan, etc.), CFR prices, import profit, and主力基差. There are also daily changes in prices. For example, the South China spot price increased by 10, and the Northwest discounted price decreased by 7 [2] Polyethylene - Price and inventory data for different regions and types of polyethylene, such as Northeast Asian ethylene, North China LL, East China LL, etc. The daily change in the North China LL price is 80, and the two - oil inventory increased by 216. The overall inventory situation is as described in the core views [7] Polypropylene - Price data including Shandong propylene, Northeast Asian propylene, East China PP, etc. The daily change in East China PP price is 60, and the主力期货 price increased by 63. The inventory and valuation situations are as described in the core views [7] PVC - Price and profit - related data such as Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, different production - method prices in different regions, import and export profits, etc. The daily change in Northwest calcium carbide price is 50, and the East China calcium carbide - based price increased by 70. The basis, inventory, and other situations are as described in the core views [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The inland price has bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of significant inventory reduction. However, the high MTO operation rate is a prerequisite for significant inventory reduction. Currently, the MTO profit is average, which restricts the upside of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 ships per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Pay attention to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Also, monitor the changes in oil prices. The limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors. If oil prices drive up other products, it may lift the price ceiling of methanol [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. The major producers and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while the social inventory remains flat. The raw material and finished - product inventories of downstream enterprises are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe and the United States are stable, and the Southeast Asian market is also stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding products is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating, with LD weakening. The number of maintenance projects in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and the US price quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, so monitor the commissioning of new plants [5]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The inventory of major producers and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral, and the markets in Europe and the United States are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the price of propylene is fluctuating, and the operation rate of powder plants is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance projects, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. The downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of mid - upstream enterprises is continuously accumulating. In summer, the northwest plants are seasonally under maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, monitor the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have declined slightly. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC plant maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Monitor whether subsequent export orders can support the price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and the operation rate [7]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, while the prices of various regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed. For example, the price of Jiangsu spot increased from 2150 to 2233, and the price of Northwest discounted to the futures price increased from 2400 to 2450 [1]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the Northwest discounted to the futures price increased by 30, and the domestic basis increased by 12 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 745, and the price of North China LL increased from 6300 to 6400. The price of the main futures contract increased from 6453 to 6579 [5]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of North China LL increased by 100, and the price of the main futures contract increased by 130 [5]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of Shandong propylene increased from 5700 to 5770, and the price of East China PP decreased from 6095 to 6180 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of Shandong propylene increased by 40, the price of East China PP decreased by 30, and the price of the main futures contract increased by 93 [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2300, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China increased from 4580 to 4660 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China increased by 130 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The real inventory pressure in the port area remains high, and the window for the port to flow back to the mainland is closed, dragging down port pick - up. Although the Iranian methanol plant is operating at a low level, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance needs further confirmation, and the decline rate of shipping volume in December is still slow. There are concerns about the possible maintenance of Xingxing's MTO plant [2]. - Downstream demand in the mainland is in the seasonal off - season, and factory inventories are gradually rebuilding. Coal - based production maintains high operation rates, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of southwest gas - based plants in the middle and late ten - days. The seasonal low of pending orders in the northwest drags down the pick - up demand for port - to - mainland back - flow. Among traditional downstream industries, the acetic acid operation rate has rebounded from the bottom, the MTBE operation rate is still acceptable, and the formaldehyde operation rate has declined slightly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - The report presents charts of methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][9][21] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The report shows charts of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][26][33] 3.3 Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory - The report provides charts of methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), mainland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated plants) [34][43] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report includes charts of price differences in different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [40][48][52] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The report shows charts of production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][58] 3.6 Strategies - Inter - period: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low [4] - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, the inland market has bottomed out, and the port market is trading on significant inventory reduction. However, the pre - condition for significant inventory reduction is high MTO operation rate. Currently, MTO profit is average, which restricts the upside of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Pay attention to subsequent developments, and short - term shipments may remain normal. Also, monitor the change in oil prices. The limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors, and if oil prices drive up other products, it may lift the upper limit of methanol prices [2]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas market in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia is stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding remains stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion situation and US quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, so monitor the commissioning of new plants [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and mid - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production rate is stable. The production of drawn products is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and the inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. In the context of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory of mid - upstream is continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, pay attention to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have declined slightly. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support the price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the accumulation of static inventory contradictions is slow, the cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Monitor exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rate [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The price of Jiangsu spot increased from 2145 to 2233, with a daily change of 23 on January 5. The price of South China spot increased from 2120 to 2205, with a daily change of 12 on January 5. Other regional prices also showed certain changes [2]. - **Viewpoint**: The inland market has bottomed out, and the port market is trading on significant inventory reduction. However, MTO profit restricts the upside of methanol. Monitor Venezuelan shipments and oil price changes [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of华东LD increased from 8175 to 8700, with a daily change of 375 on January 5. Other prices also had corresponding changes. The主力期货 price decreased from 6465 to 6449, with a daily change of - 23 on January 5 [6]. - **Viewpoint**: Overall inventory is neutral. Pay attention to LL - HD conversion, US quotes, and new plant commissioning [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of山东丙烯 increased from 5690 to 5730, with a daily change of 50 on January 5. The主力期货 price decreased from 6292 to 6330, with a daily change of - 18 on January 5 [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Upstream and mid - stream are reducing inventory. Monitor exports and PDH plant maintenance [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of电石法 - 华东 decreased from 4520 to 4530, with a daily change of - 70 on January 5. The基差(高端交割品) increased from - 20 to - 250, with a daily change of 10 on January 5 [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and mid - upstream inventory is accumulating. Monitor exports, coal prices, etc. [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory accumulation pace has slowed down for the first time. After the restart of the downstream MTO Xingxing, it supported the port demand, and the port inventory remained basically flat this week. However, the subsequent arrival pressure is still high, and the subsequent changes mainly depend on when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced [3] - The lowest point of coal - based methanol production has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month. The inventory of inland methanol plants is still low, and overall, the inland market is stronger than the port market. The window for port re - flow to the inland is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices. The high - start acetic acid production has peaked and declined, and formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season, waiting for a further bottom - up recovery. Attention should be paid to the decline in the resilience of inland demand [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Includes figures such as methanol Taicang basis and the main methanol contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - methanol 05, methanol 05 - methanol 09, methanol 09 - methanol 01) [7][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Involves figures related to Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [26][30] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - Covers figures on total port methanol inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][34] 4. Regional Price Differences - Includes figures on price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [38][45] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Involves figures on production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][54]