Group 1 - The high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US are set to take place, with China agreeing to engage in discussions based on global expectations and its own interests [2] - The People's Bank of China, along with financial regulatory bodies, will hold a significant press conference to discuss a comprehensive financial policy aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations [3] - The offshore RMB exchange rate has strengthened significantly, with a notable increase of over 800 points during the "May Day" holiday, reflecting both international and domestic factors [4] Group 2 - Several banks have raised the threshold for gold accumulation business due to significant fluctuations in gold prices, indicating a cautious approach towards investment risks [5] - Nvidia's CEO highlighted the potential growth of China's AI chip market to $50 billion, emphasizing the importance of US companies gaining access to this market [6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has initiated investigations into five A-share companies for failing to disclose regular reports within the legal timeframe [7] Group 3 - Pakistan has declared a state of emergency, with educational institutions closed amid rising tensions with India, which has conducted military operations [8] - Huawei's Harmony OS PC release is anticipated, leading to a surge in related concept stocks [9] - The A-share market saw a significant increase, with major indices rising over 1% and trading volume exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [9][10] Group 4 - Central Huijin's investment strategy is characterized by long investment cycles, providing stability during market fluctuations and supporting passive investment development [11] - CATL is progressing towards a Hong Kong IPO, with its first-quarter revenue showing a return to growth [12] - A collaboration between retail giants Fat Dong Lai and JD.com aims to establish a supply chain industry base in Henan, projected to generate an annual output value of approximately 2.5 billion yuan [13] Group 5 - New stock offerings include Hanbang Technology, which is open for subscription [14] - ST Huahong is acquiring a 34% stake in its subsidiary Zhejiang Zhuangchen, enhancing its asset structure [15] - The film "Dumpling Queen" has achieved a box office revenue of approximately 218 million yuan within six days of release, significantly exceeding the company's previous annual revenue [16] Group 6 - Shanghai International Group plans to transfer 3.39 billion shares of Shanghai International Port Group to Jiushi Group without compensation, maintaining the current major shareholder structure [17] - Weisheng Information has won a procurement project from State Grid Hebei Electric Power Company worth 15.4587 million yuan [22] - Hanma Technology reported a 56.96% year-on-year increase in truck sales for April [23] Group 7 - Xibu Muye's fresh milk production increased by 0.47% year-on-year in April [24] - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism reported a 50.47% increase in revenue during the "May Day" holiday [25] - Zhongli Co., Ltd. signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Jungheinrich AG to promote the electrification of the global material handling industry [26] Group 8 - Far East Holdings received contracts worth 2.646 billion yuan in April [27] - Haoen Automotive Electronics received a designated order from a leading new energy vehicle brand, with an estimated total revenue of approximately 619 million yuan over the project's lifecycle [28] - Aopul Optical signed a contract for the development of an optical system worth 297 million yuan [29] Group 9 - Zhonghua Geotechnical Engineering won a project worth 181 million yuan for the Urumqi Airport expansion [30] - Linglong Tire's major shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by 200 to 300 million yuan [31] - Tiantong Co., Ltd. has secured a loan commitment of up to 45 million yuan for stock repurchase [32]

离岸人民币早盘继续走强，离岸人民币兑美元升破7.19关口。 ...

离岸人民币对美元直线 拉升逾100点，升破7.2关口。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is driven by a weaker USD and a thawing in China-US trade relations, with future focus on tariff negotiations and US economic data impacting the USD index [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has shown a "short-term rapid appreciation," influenced by the weakening of the USD and narrowing China-US interest rate differentials [1] - The relationship between the RMB exchange rate and both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is observed to be vaguely positively correlated, while the exchange rate is strongly correlated with the China-US interest rate differential [1] - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB has contributed to the recovery of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, but technical analysis suggests that the rapid appreciation phase has ended, leading to potential fluctuations [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis Insights - From a technical perspective, the RMB exchange rate is currently in a phase of oscillation after the rapid appreciation, which may cause disturbances in market trends [1] - The analysis indicates that if the RMB rebounds to certain levels, it may signal further downward movement, while a return to specific thresholds could indicate reduced downward space [1][23] - The PCR indicator, which tracks short-term market timing, has shown a slight increase, indicating a high-risk zone, suggesting that if it remains elevated, a market adjustment may be imminent [1]

宏观策略周论："对等关税"以来的输家和赢家 20250506 摘要 • 对等关税后，全球资产表现分化，避险资产如黄金、比特币震荡上行；美 国资产替代需求增加，资金流向欧洲、日本，新兴市场内部资金腾挪，中 国市场（尤其是港股）相对落后。 • 尽管五一假期期间美股未大幅下跌，但内需板块相对泡沫化，外需板块受 关税拖累。美国能源、运输业和中国互联网、软件、非银金融、银行业受 影响较大。 • 中国房地产脱困可借鉴国际经验，如日本长期低息贷款和城市规划，生育 支持政策可参考日韩经验，提供经济补贴、完善育儿设施，刺激内需，提 高出生率。 • 美国股市、债市、汇率三杀，资金流出美国，可能回流港股或欧洲，但新 兴市场风险较高，关税不确定性犹存，外资对美国存量资金影响有限。 • 美联储降息预期推迟至 7 月，美债利率交易在 3.8%左右，下行受限。二 季度美国经济面临关税谈判、减税和汇率变化三大关键因素。 • 港股市场宜采取低迷时积极介入、亢奋时适度获利的策略。行业配置应考 虑成长与防御、外需与内需两条线，并结合宏观经济影响进行细致分析。 • 人民币汇率韧性超出预期，并非完全由基本面解释，伴随结构性或资金面 因素。中国央行可能 ...

作 者丨舒晓婷 林秋彤 编 辑丨李莹亮 包芳鸣 刘雪莹 北京时间5月6日晚，美股三大指数集体低开。而在美股盘前，三大股指期货已大幅跳水。 美股大型科技股多数走弱，其中科技七巨头全线下跌。 | 苹果(APPLE) | 198.605 | -0.14% | | --- | --- | --- | | AAPL.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 185.780 | -0.31% | | AMZN.0 | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABE ... | 165.270 | -0.47% | | GOOG.O | | | | 微软(MICROSO ... | 433.745 | -0.56% | | MSFT.O | | | | 脸书(META PLA ... | 592.775 | -1.08% | | META.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 112.080 | -1.53% | | NVDA.O | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 274.180 | -2.17% | | TSLA.O | | | 图： Wi n d 美国3月贸易逆差1 4 0 5亿美元，农产品出口严重下滑 据央 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by a combination of factors, including a softening stance from the US on tariff negotiations and proactive macroeconomic policies from China aimed at stabilizing the economy [1][2][5]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movements - On May 6, the onshore RMB rose significantly against the US dollar, reaching a high of 7.2105, the highest level since November of the previous year [1]. - During the May Day holiday, the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.9%, with notable increases of over 650 points on May 2 and again on May 5, peaking at 7.19 [1]. - The RMB's overall stability amidst global market fluctuations caused by US tariff policies indicates a resilient exchange rate [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Strength - The recent strength of the RMB is attributed to the US's willingness to engage in tariff negotiations, as indicated by statements from US officials, which has positively influenced the RMB's value [2]. - The Chinese government's commitment to implementing proactive macroeconomic policies, as discussed in the April 25 Politburo meeting, aims to stabilize employment and market expectations, further supporting the RMB [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - The future trajectory of the RMB will largely depend on the progress of US-China trade talks and the performance of the US dollar [4]. - The potential for a more flexible US stance on tariffs may reduce downward pressure on the RMB, suggesting that the most significant depreciation risks may have passed [4]. - The RMB is expected to exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation pattern against the dollar, with relatively smaller volatility compared to other major currencies [4]. Group 4: Economic Fundamentals Supporting RMB Stability - The foundation for maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate is strong, supported by positive domestic economic indicators and China's institutional advantages, including a large market and effective governance mechanisms [5]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system, aiming to stabilize market expectations and prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB [5].

期货研究报告|外汇月报 2025-05-06 预期扰动增强，美元短暂偏弱 研究院 研究员 蔡劭立 FICC 组 投资咨询号：Z0014617 联系人 朱思谋 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 美元短期偏弱，建议维持区间震荡思路，关注政策扰动与外部经济预期变化。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 美元兑人民币汇率在 4 月下旬至 5 月初整体呈现偏弱震荡走势，阶段高点出现在 7.35 附近，随后回落至 7.27 一线。离岸人民币在五一假期期间短线快速升值，受中美贸易预 期改善、美元指数回调以及市场风险偏好回暖等多因素影响。美元指数 4 月累计下跌约 4.5%，为近年来较大单月跌幅。期权隐含波动率先升后降，看涨期权隐波回落，人民币 汇率走势更趋双向波动。 4 月中国宏观数据环比走弱但整体好于预期，美国增长数据不及预期。中国制造业 PMI 回落至 49.0，显示制造业短期承压，但高技术制造业 PMI 维持在 51.5 的扩张区间，非 制造业商务活动指数为 50.4，服务业恢复动能延续。美国方面，4 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 下 滑至 48.7，一季度 GDP 录得-0.3%，带动花旗经济意外指 ...

美元兑在岸人民币下跌逾0.7%，报7.22。 ...

美元兑在岸人民币下跌逾0.7%，报7.2196。 ...