Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year [1][2] Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low as of August [3] - Inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains at a high level, with the Fed aiming for full employment and a 2% inflation target over the long term [3][4] Employment Risks - There is an increasing risk of a downturn in employment, with signs of pressure on low-income households and a rise in layoff announcements, although these have not yet led to an increase in unemployment claims [3][4] Inflation Concerns - Higher tariffs are contributing to price increases in certain categories, leading to overall inflation rising, but these effects may be temporary [4] - The Fed is closely monitoring the potential for persistent inflation impacts, which could complicate monetary policy [4] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Fed has decided to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program, concluding the reduction of its balance sheet on December 1, after three and a half years [2][4] - The decision to stop QT means that the principal from MBS redemptions will be reinvested in short-term U.S. Treasury securities [4] Internal Disagreements - There are notable divisions within the Fed regarding future rate actions, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others prefer to maintain current rates [5][6] - Powell indicated that the lack of data due to the government shutdown could lead to a more cautious approach in future decisions [6] Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, market sentiment shifted, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.16% and the S&P 500 declining slightly, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.55%, reaching a new closing high [2][6] - Market expectations for a December rate cut are currently at 67.8%, with a 32.3% probability of maintaining current rates [6]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Reaction - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping over $3,500 and falling below $110,000, while Ethereum and XRP also saw declines exceeding 2% [1][3] - In the last 24 hours, nearly $588 million in cryptocurrency contracts were liquidated, affecting over 133,000 traders, with long positions accounting for $455 million and short positions for $133 million [3][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking the second cut of the year, which aligned with market expectations [5][8] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the market's expectation for another rate cut in December is "far from certain," suggesting internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy [5][8] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Powell's hawkish remarks have dampened market sentiment, leading to increased risk aversion, as evidenced by a slight rise in gold prices, which may be limited by optimistic trade negotiation prospects [1][5] - The U.S. Treasury market saw its largest single-day decline in nearly five months, as Powell's comments prompted investors to reassess future rate cut expectations [6][7]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00% [2][5] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the market's expectation for another rate cut in December is "far from a done deal," adding uncertainty to future policy [5][7] - The decision to cut rates was influenced by a moderate expansion in economic activity, a slight increase in unemployment, and rising inflation [5][6] Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight rise in the unemployment rate [5] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the recent government shutdown has reduced GDP by at least $7 billion [5] - Inflation remains elevated, with Powell noting that inflation expectations have risen recently [6][11] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Nasdaq reaching a new high, while the Dow Jones fell by 0.16% [1][13] - Nvidia's stock rose approximately 3%, pushing its market capitalization above $500 billion, while Apple also saw a slight increase, surpassing a $4 trillion market cap [3][13] Future Outlook - Powell emphasized the need to consider uncertainties regarding future rate actions, particularly for the December meeting [7][8] - The Fed has cut rates a total of 150 basis points, and while rates are not yet in a loose range, they are more accommodative than before [7][8] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have decreased from 93% to nearly 70% following Powell's comments [12]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with Bitcoin dropping over $3,500 and falling below the $110,000 mark, leading to a total liquidation of nearly $588 million in contracts within 24 hours [1][3][5]. Cryptocurrency Market Summary - Bitcoin fell by 2.58% to $109,900, Ethereum decreased by 2.45% to $3,882, and XRP also saw a decline of over 2% [3]. - A total of 133,600 traders were liquidated, with long positions accounting for $455 million and short positions for $133 million [3][4]. - The largest single liquidation occurred on Bybit-BTCUSD, valued at $11 million [3]. Federal Reserve Actions Summary - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the second cut of the year, which was in line with market expectations [5][10]. - Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the market's expectations for a December rate cut are "far from certain," which negatively impacted market sentiment [5][6]. - The internal discussions within the Fed revealed differing views on employment and inflation, highlighting a growing divide among policymakers [6][10]. Market Reactions Summary - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. Treasury bonds experienced their largest single-day drop in nearly five months, reflecting a shift in market expectations regarding future rate cuts [8][9]. - Analysts noted that Powell's comments were aimed at resetting market expectations for December, suggesting that the likelihood of further rate cuts may be limited [8][9]. - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December is currently estimated at 67.8%, with a 32.2% chance of maintaining the current rate [6].

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者周蕊 纽约报道 本次会议另一项重要决定是停止缩表。自2022年启动量化紧缩以来，美联储已经缩减约2万亿美元国债 与抵押贷款支持证券，使资产负债表规模降至6.6万亿美元，是2020年以来的最低水平。停止缩表意味 着银行体系超储压力有望缓解，但也意味着在经济数据不完整、通胀韧性尚存环境下，流动性将有所释 放，可能在中期带来资产价格的新平衡。 值得关注的是，政府停摆继续延长使得市场缺乏高质量宏观数据。例如，最新失业率仍停留在8月的 4.3%水平，而私营机构数据覆盖面较小、波动性较大，难以完全为政策决策提供支撑。这意味着未来 数周，美联储将面临"盲走"状态，市场波动或因此放大。 美国东部时间10月29日，美联储在结束最新一次议息会议后宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基 点至3.75%—4%。这是继9月之后再次降息，显示美联储试图缓冲正在走弱的就业市场压力。与此同 时，美联储还宣布将于12月1日起正式停止缩减资产负债表，意味着自2022年启动的量化紧缩周期阶段 性结束，也象征着政策在流动性管理上出现重要拐点。 在政策声明中，美联储指出，美国就业增速明显放缓，就业风险在过去数月持续上升 ...

当地时间10月29日，美联储公开市场委员会以10-2票，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至 3.75%-4%，这也是年内连续第二次降息。 鲍威尔打压市场对于12月会议将再度降息的预期：12月降息"远非板上钉钉"，他还有哪些表态？ 美联储宣布结束QT，关于劳动力市场、通货膨胀率，美联储如何声明？ 对于未来的货币政策，机构如何解读？ 一图速览>> ● 美联储最新声明 美联储主席鲍威尔最新表态 ■ 12月降息"远非板上钉钉": 在本次会议的委员会讨论中,对 于12月份如何采取行动,存在着 裁然不同的意见 ...... 12月会议上是 否会进一步降息并非板上钉钉, 远非如此。 如果存在高度不确定性,那么这 可能成为我们谨慎行事、暂不采 取行动的理由。美联储必须等待 数据的发展。 ■ 美联储正"非常密切地"关 程裁员情况 机构解读 ■美国银行经济学家Aditya Bhave: 在鲍威尔担任主席期间,美联储不 会再次降息。但很明显,除非数据 发出明确的信号,否则12月的决策 将比10月更加充满争议。 ■ 牛津经济研究院副首席经济学 家Michael Pearce: 很多公司在宣布不会进行大量招 聘,或者实际上正 ...

当地时间10月29日，美联储公开市场委员会以10-2票，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至3.75%-4%，这也是年内连续第二次降息。 一图速览>> ■ AI数据中心"对利率敏感度 不高" : | | Jan | Feb | 削一 Mar | Apr | May | -轮加息周期累计加息525个基点 Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2022 | | | 25 | | 50 | 75 | 75 | | 75 | | 75 | (50) | | 2023 | | 25 | 25 | | 25 | | 25 | | | | | | | 2024 | | | | | | | | | 50 | | 25 | 25 | | 0000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 鲍威尔打压市场对于 12 月会议将再度降息的预期：12月降息"远非板上钉钉"，他还有哪些表态？ 美联储宣布结束QT ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October was expected, but Chairman Powell's remarks were notably hawkish, suggesting that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - CICC believes that the internal support for pausing rate cuts within the Federal Reserve is gaining traction [1] - Despite having some room for further easing, the pace of rate cuts may slow down, and overly optimistic expectations should be avoided [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The stimulative effect of the current round of rate cuts is expected to be weaker than in previous cycles, partly due to a significant reduction in the "refinancing effect" [1] - The Federal Reserve announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT) in December, which CICC interprets as a technical consideration rather than a signal for major policy shifts [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - With substantial room for policy rate reductions, the necessity for purchasing unconventional financial assets is deemed low [1]

鲍威尔还有哪些表态？对于未来货币政策，机构如何解读？一图速览>> 如果存在高度不确定性，那么这 可能成为我们谨慎行事、暂不采 取行动的理由。美联储必须等待 数据的发展。 ■ 美联储正"非常密切地"关 注裁员情况 很多公司在宣布不会进行大量招 聘,或者实际上正在裁员,而且 很多时候他们都在谈论人工智能 及其带来的影响。我们正在非常 密切地关注这一点。 ■ AI数据中心"对利率敏感度 不高" : 在全美各地建设数据中心的支出 对利率并不特别敏感。这更多是 基于对长期趋势的判断，即这是 一个未来会有大量投资的领域， 而这些投资将推动生产力提高。 我不清楚这些投资最终会带来怎 样的结果 但我认为与一些其他 ) 代表当月暂停加息 ● 有记录来美联储利率走势 1984/08 11.5% 2023/07 2001/01 5.5% 5.5% 2008/12 2020/03 *图中数据为目标利率最高上限 0.25% 0.25% 美联储最新声明 ○ 美联储在声明重申,政策制定者对劳动力市场的担忧,称"近几个 月来，就业面临的下行风险有所增加"。 ○ 声明称，现有指标显示，经济活动一直在温和扩张。今年就业增长 有所放缓，失业率略有 ...

北京时间10月30日，美联储公开市场委员会以10-2票，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至 3.75%-4%，这也是年内连续第二次降息。此外，美联储还宣布将于12月1日结束为期三年半的缩减资产 购买规模，即量化紧缩。 12月降息"远非板上钉钉"，鲍威尔还有哪些表态？对于未来货币政策，机构如何解读？ ● 美联储最新声明 ○ 美联储在声明重申,政策制定者对劳动力市场的担忧,称"近几个 月来,就业面临的下行风险有所增加"。 ○ 声明称,现有指标显示,经济活动一直在温和扩张。今年就业增长 有所放缓,失业率略有上升,但截至8月份仍保持在较低水平;最 新指标与这些趋势一致。 ○ 通货膨胀率自今年年初以来有所上升,目前仍处于较高水平。 ○ 美联储还宣布将于12月1日结束为期三年半的缩减资产购买规模, 即量化紧缩。 机构解读 ■ 美国银行经济学家Aditya Bhave: 在鲍威尔担任主席期间,美联储不 美联储主席鲍威尔最新表态 会再次降息。但很明显,除非数据 发出明确的信号,否则12月的决策 = 12月降息"远非板上钉钉": 将比10月更加充满争议。 在本次会议的委员会讨论中,对 于12月份如何采取行动,存在着 ...