但让人没想到的是，这场掌门争夺战里，最热闹的话题居然是"要不要限制美联储的资产规模"，这跟特朗普一直念叨的低利率诉求，看着就像拧巴到一起的 绳子。 特朗普对低利率的痴迷，懂点美国经济的人都知道。 特朗普要换掉现任美联储主席鲍威尔，这事最近被美国政治新闻网站POLITICO给扒了出来。 他多次公开表达对鲍威尔的不满，就等着明年鲍威尔任期结束，选个跟自己经济理念合拍的新人。 他总说希望抵押贷款利率再低点，这样联邦政府还债务利息能轻松点，普通老百姓买房买车也能少花点钱。 而美联储那庞大的资产负债表，当初就是为了压低长期利率才搞起来的。 现在倒好，一群人喊着要缩减这个"压利率神器"，这操作确实让人摸不着头脑。 美联储的资产规模能冲到6万亿以上，可不是一朝一夕的事。 早年间遇到经济危机，光把短期利率降到零还不够。 为了让购房者、购车者能拿到更便宜的长期贷款，美联储就开始大规模买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券。 这种操作叫量化宽松，说白了就是往市场里砸钱，让借钱的成本降下来，刺激大家投资消费。 2008年金融危机、2020年新冠疫情，每次都是这套打法，资产规模也跟着一路涨。 客观说，量化宽松在危机时刻确实顶用。 就拿新冠疫情 ...

与此同时，美联储已通过常备回购工具为合格参与者提供流动性准备，但此类流动性需求并不旺盛。推测 原因在于主要交易商和合格存款机构并未感受到流动性紧缩压力。但这些合格参与者本有能力平抑市场整 体的流动性需求。因此美联储可能感到沮丧——他们随时准备供应流动性，表面看来存在流动性需求，但 实际需求量却微乎其微。 我们仍认为银行储备充足，但美联储当前影响流动性状况最便捷的方式是购买国库券，从而诱导银行储备 增加。不过这终究是解决流动性紧张表象的粗放手段。更优方案是加速推进补充流动性比率要求的放宽， 从而让大型银行释放更多资产负债表空间。当前有效联邦基金利率易于高于超额准备利率，从技术层面看 这并非问题——银行可通过联邦基金利率窗口操作防止利率大幅偏离。 总体而言，我们认为当前状况可控且无需担忧。但美联储仍将采取应对措施，主要通过超额购买国债（自 12月1日起）来抵消抵押贷款支持证券的到期规模。与此同时，过去24小时回购市场已显现趋稳迹象，若 能持续将有助于缓解有效资金利率压力。 超短期端之外，市场远更为平静 近期美国回购市场资金紧张并未令我们过度担忧。这确实表明流动性环境存在不均衡现象。合格的常设回 购参与者似乎并不需 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve will stop reducing its balance sheet starting December 1, signaling a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [2] - The federal funds rate has been lowered by 25 basis points, maintaining a range of 3.75% to 4.00% [2] - The balance sheet reduction, which began in June 2022, aimed to normalize the Fed's balance sheet after it expanded significantly during the pandemic [2] Group 2 - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with net interest payments nearing defense spending levels, complicating monetary policy [3] - The Fed's policy decisions are increasingly influenced by fiscal sustainability, balancing inflation control against rising government financing costs [3] - The recent pause in balance sheet reduction reflects the Fed's struggle between fiscal pressures and its monetary policy objectives [3] Group 3 - Changes in U.S. monetary policy have significant global implications, affecting capital flows and currency valuations in emerging markets [5] - During the tightening phase, emerging markets faced capital outflows and currency depreciation, highlighting their vulnerability to U.S. policy shifts [5] - A potential shift to easing could lead to increased global liquidity, impacting commodity prices and asset valuations, raising concerns about financial bubbles [5] Group 4 - The U.S. monetary policy's challenges are symptomatic of long-term structural issues, including the hollowing out of domestic industries and reliance on debt [6] - The "America First" policy has accelerated a reevaluation of the dollar's role in the global economy, prompting some countries to explore alternative currencies [6] - The Fed's policy space is constrained by the need for low interest rates to manage debt, while excessive easing could undermine the dollar's credibility [6] Group 5 - The Fed's policy choices are increasingly focused on stabilizing the debt system rather than solely addressing employment and inflation [7] - The independence of monetary policy is being challenged as it becomes intertwined with government debt management [7] - Without addressing structural issues, the Fed may continue to face difficulties in balancing fiscal pressures with its policy goals, impacting its authority and effectiveness [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, is expected to increase the issuance of short-term bonds to lower long-term U.S. Treasury yields amid rising national debt, with a quarterly report due this Wednesday [1]. Group 1: Short-term Bond Issuance - Market participants anticipate that the Treasury will clarify its strategy to increase the proportion of short-term bonds in the $30 trillion national debt market [1]. - The proportion of short-term bonds has already exceeded 21% as of September this year, up from a long-term target of around 20% suggested by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee [2]. - Citigroup estimates that if the Treasury does not increase the issuance of medium- to long-term bonds, the share of short-term bonds could rise to over 26% by the end of 2027 [2]. Group 2: Impact of Federal Reserve Policies - The Federal Reserve's decision to stop reducing its Treasury holdings and to use cash from maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to purchase short-term bonds will support this strategy [1][4]. - JPMorgan estimates that the Fed's actions could create an additional demand of approximately $15 billion per month for Treasury bonds [4]. Group 3: Debt Refinancing and Cost Savings - The U.S. government may save up to $1 trillion due to lower refinancing costs from reduced benchmark interest rates and increased tariff revenues [3]. - The total expenditure on debt by the Treasury reached a record $1.22 trillion for the fiscal year ending September 30 [3]. Group 4: Upcoming Bond Issuances - Upcoming bond issuances include $58 billion in 3-year bonds on November 10, $42 billion in 10-year bonds on November 12, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds on November 13 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent actions indicate a shift from traditional monetary policy to a role that resembles a lifeline for the U.S. Treasury, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt and its implications for the global financial system [1][3][7] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve will cease balance sheet reduction after December 1, 2023, and will reinvest maturing securities into short-term Treasury bonds, effectively postponing debt repayment [1][3] - The Fed's balance sheet remains around $8 trillion, contradicting claims of monetary tightening, and suggests a strategy of delaying financial obligations rather than addressing them [3][5] Group 2: U.S. Debt Situation - The total U.S. debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with a projected fiscal deficit exceeding $1.7 trillion for FY 2024, necessitating daily borrowing of over $4 billion [3][5] - Interest payments on U.S. debt are nearing $1 trillion annually, accounting for 13% of the federal budget, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [5][9] Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - Major foreign holders of U.S. debt, such as Japan and China, are reducing their holdings, with Japan decreasing by approximately $18 billion and China by about $24 billion as of August 2024 [5][7] - The reduction in foreign investment raises questions about the Fed's ability to manage the bond market without external support [5][7] Group 4: Economic Implications - The U.S. economy's growth is sluggish, with a projected annualized GDP growth rate of only 2.1% for Q2 2024, while corporate profit growth is slowing and household savings are at historical lows [9][11] - The Fed's current policies may lead to a normalization of debt issues, potentially desensitizing the market to the underlying risks associated with U.S. debt [11]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created unprecedented challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, leading to significant market volatility and uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts [1][3][16]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29, but the decision was narrowly passed with a 10-2 vote, indicating internal divisions among board members [1][3]. - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve, with one member advocating for no rate change and another suggesting a 50 basis point cut, which is uncommon in recent decision-making [3][16]. - The lack of timely economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Fed's ability to make informed policy decisions, as key indicators like non-farm payrolls and inflation data are unavailable [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - September's CPI inflation data showed slightly lower-than-expected inflation pressures, with declines in housing services inflation and stable non-housing services inflation, which bolstered the Fed's confidence in controlling inflation [5][12]. - The job market is undergoing structural changes, influenced by immigration policies and AI, making traditional employment data harder to interpret [5][7]. - The Fed announced it would stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, citing tightening liquidity in the money market and declining bank reserves, which may help alleviate liquidity pressures [8][10]. Group 3: Market Implications - Following the Fed's announcement, expectations for a December rate cut have significantly cooled, with traders reassessing the Fed's policy path amid ongoing data shortages [10][12]. - The decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from 4.28% to 3.97% since late August reflects the impact of the rate cut cycle, although historical trends suggest that the pace of decline may slow down [12][14]. - The stock market, particularly technology and interest-sensitive sectors, has been supported by the rate cut, while the dollar index may stabilize as economic conditions improve [14][16]. Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged due to declining risk-free interest rates, government shutdown uncertainties, and global de-dollarization trends, with historical patterns suggesting a potential continuation of the current bull market [14][16].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin expanding its balance sheet again early next year, which may alleviate investor concerns regarding the significant borrowing needs of the U.S. economy [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve officially ended its three-year quantitative tightening program, with Chairman Powell indicating that the central bank may soon become a major buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds again [1] - Analysts predict that the Fed will start purchasing enough Treasury bonds to expand its balance sheet in the first quarter of next year, likely in January or by March at the latest [1] - Monthly net purchases of $35 billion in Treasury bonds are anticipated, which could lead to a monthly expansion of approximately $20 billion in the Fed's $6.6 trillion balance sheet [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Market anxiety has eased as expectations grow that the Fed will end quantitative tightening, alongside signs of potential improvement in budget deficits [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has decreased significantly from a peak of 4.8% in January to below 4.1%, driven by increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts [2] - The additional yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries over interest rate swaps has halved since April, indicating that worst-case concerns about sovereign debt supply may have been exaggerated [2] Group 3: Yield Curve Dynamics - The easing of borrowing tensions is reflected in the flattening of the government bond yield curve, with the extra yield on 30-year Treasuries over 2-year bonds dropping from 1.3% in September to 1% [3] - Efforts by policymakers in the U.S., U.K., and Japan to shorten government bond issuance terms have also alleviated concerns about an oversupply of long-term government debt [3] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The end of quantitative tightening by the Fed is seen as a response to signs of stress in short-term financing markets, reflecting banks' desire to hold more reserves [3] - The current situation does not indicate a return to aggressive quantitative easing, which involves purchasing large amounts of government debt to inject liquidity into the financial system [3] - Despite recent positive developments, concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal deficits remain, with expectations that the debt-to-GDP ratio may exceed that of Italy later in the decade [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%, following a similar cut in September, aligning with market expectations [1] - There is a growing internal division within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with some members supporting a more aggressive rate cut while others advocate for maintaining the current rate [1] - Economic indicators show a slight increase in unemployment but remain low, and the September CPI was more moderate than expected, suggesting a continued moderate expansion of economic activity [1] Group 2 - Following Powell's statements, traders reduced the probability of a rate cut in December from 90% to 71%, leading to a decline in major U.S. stock indices [4] - The Federal Reserve will officially end its quantitative tightening process in December, with the redemption principal of mortgage-backed securities being reinvested into short-term government bonds [4] - Powell indicated that additional tariffs could raise inflation by up to 0.4 percentage points, although the impact is expected to be temporary and will take time to affect consumers [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement indicates that after the conclusion of balance sheet reduction on December 1, the principal repayments from mortgage-backed securities will be reinvested into short-term Treasury securities [1] Group 1 - Starting from December 1, all principal payments on maturing U.S. Treasury securities will be rolled over [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to approve a 25 basis point rate cut in its upcoming FOMC meeting, with discussions on future rate paths and the timing of ending the balance sheet reduction plan highlighting internal divisions among policymakers [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is nearly 100% as the current overnight loan benchmark rate is between 4% and 4.25% [1]. - Economists predict that the Fed will continue to cut rates into 2026, potentially lowering rates to a neutral range of 2.75% to 3% [3]. Group 2: Internal Divisions - There are significant divisions among Fed officials regarding the timing and extent of future rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate action while others are hesitant [2]. - The recent voting dynamics show that only one member opposed the last rate cut, indicating a split in opinions on the committee [2]. Group 3: Labor Market Concerns - Concerns about the labor market are a primary reason for the Fed's inclination to cut rates, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [3][4]. - The lack of recent economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Fed's ability to make informed decisions regarding employment and inflation [4][5]. Group 4: Balance Sheet Management - The Fed is expected to signal the nearing end of its quantitative tightening process, which involves allowing maturing securities to roll off its $6.6 trillion balance sheet without reinvestment [5]. - There are indications of liquidity tightening, prompting expectations for a statement regarding the conclusion of the balance sheet reduction [5].