AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国住房金融局局长比尔・普尔蒂（Bill Pulte）向英国《金融时报》表示，此次债券购买将由房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac）联合执行。 这两家政府支持企业的核心职能是收购放贷机构的住房抵押贷款，并将其重新打包为抵押贷款支持证券。 "我们将充分借助房利美的力量，扭转前总统乔・拜登（Joe Biden）过去四年造成的损害，具体举措包括但不限于战略性、大规模购入抵押贷款债券。"普 尔蒂说道。 他补充称，这项举措无需获得国会批准。 特朗普在"真实社交"平台发文称，他正"指示相关代表购买价值2000亿美元的抵押贷款债券"。 "此举将推动房贷利率下降、月供金额降低，从而提高民众的购房能力。"特朗普在周四下午写道，"这是我为恢复住房可负担性推出的多项举措之一，而住 房可负担性恰恰是拜登政府一手摧毁的。" 他补充说，自己首个任期内决定不出售房利美和房地美，使这两家机构得以积累"2000亿美元现金"，而他之所以宣布这一决定，正是"基于此原因"。 美国总统特朗普宣布，将启动一项规模达2000亿美元的抵押贷款债券购买计划，试图压低房贷利率。 ...

美联储资产负债表基本结构 宏 观 研 究 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_IndInves 芃 t] SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 分析师： 周喜 SAC NO： S1150511010017 2025 年 12 月 31 日 ――宏观专题报告 美联储资产负债表是理解美元流动性变化的基础，其主要通过"双边记 账"的方式对金融体系产生影响。单就美联储扩表而言，是指美联储通 过购买资产扩大自身资产负债表规模，从而向金融市场或实体经济注入 流动性的货币政策操作。通常可以分为常规公开市场操作、非常规性量 化宽松、准备金管理购买三类。公开市场操作和准备金管理购买针对短 期国债，目的是补充银行准备金，预防流动性危机，同时影响美联储资 产负债表中的准备金账户和短期国债科目；而量化宽松则主要是指在利 率降至零下限时，美联储通过大规模购买长期资产来压低长期利率、刺 激经济的行为。 美联储资产负债表历史变动 美联储自诞生以来， ...

Core Insights - The fixed income and derivatives markets in 2025 were primarily driven by significant political, economic, operational, and climate risk events, with ongoing technological transformations reshaping trading and investment operations across financial institutions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Market volatility in 2025 was influenced by various factors, including the rapid changes in tariff policies, geopolitical conflicts, and economic events such as government budgets, inflation data, and interest rate fluctuations [3]. - Concerns regarding artificial intelligence (AI) investments not delivering expected short-term returns led to periodic disruptions in both stock and bond markets, with fears that substantial AI-related expenditures could erode profitability [2]. - Despite the turbulent environment, the overall issuance of corporate and municipal bonds remained strong, indicating resilience in the fixed income market [3]. Group 2: Private Debt Market - The global private debt market has expanded since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by tighter bank lending regulations, and is now allowing participation from affluent individual investors [4]. - Recent high-profile defaults in the private credit market have raised concerns about a potential wave of defaults due to economic and market volatility [4][5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The electronic trading of fixed income markets has progressed, with 50% of U.S. investment-grade bond trading now conducted electronically, generating vast amounts of market data for financial institutions [6]. - Financial institutions are leveraging cloud-based market data to develop new trading models and execution strategies [6]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Asian investors are increasingly viewing U.S. dollar-denominated debt as a strategic asset due to concerns about tariff impacts on regional economic growth, with U.S. Treasuries, asset-backed securities (ABS), mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and over-the-counter derivatives being popular choices [7]. Group 5: Climate Impact - Climate change events, such as the California wildfires in January 2025, have ongoing effects on market pricing, with analysts assessing the long-term impact of weather events on the repayment risks of municipal and corporate bonds [8]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Many trends observed in 2025, including those that caused significant market volatility, are expected to continue influencing the securities market in 2026, presenting ongoing pricing challenges for financial services engaged in low liquidity bond and derivatives trading [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a significant transition from "Quantitative Tightening" (QT) to "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMP) by the end of 2025, which may signal the start of a form of "invisible easing" in 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Mechanism Change - The cessation of QT in Q4 2025 marks the end of a period where approximately $2.4 trillion in liquidity was withdrawn from the market, leading to the introduction of RMP in January 2026 [2] - RMP is officially defined as a technical operation to ensure sufficient liquidity in the financial system, but is interpreted by the market as a form of "covert easing" or "quasi-quantitative easing" [2] - The shift to RMP is driven by structural liquidity constraints in the financial system, as banks prefer to pay higher premiums in the market rather than utilize reserves held at the Fed [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Interest Rate Predictions - There is a notable divergence in predictions for the federal funds rate in 2026, with ICBC International forecasting a reduction of 50-75 basis points, while J.P. Morgan anticipates only a single rate cut [4] - ICBC International's bearish outlook is based on the need to shift monetary policy focus from anti-inflation to stabilizing growth amid slowing domestic demand [4] - J.P. Morgan's optimistic view is supported by strong non-residential fixed investment, suggesting limited rate cuts and stabilization around 3%-3.25% [4] Group 3: Fiscal Concerns - The implementation of RMP coincides with historically high federal budget deficits, raising concerns about the potential for monetizing fiscal deficits through the issuance of short-term Treasury bonds [3] Group 4: Yield Curve Dynamics - Analysts predict a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, with expectations that the federal funds rate will settle around 3% by the end of 2026, driven by a tug-of-war between short-term rate easing and long-term concerns over fiscal sustainability [6] - The yield curve's shape in 2026 may serve as a litmus test for the impact of the AI revolution on the economy, with a healthy inflation cycle potentially leading to a steepening curve [5] Group 5: Scenario Analysis for 2026 - ING outlines two extreme scenarios for 2026: one where the Fed cuts rates in response to a significant economic downturn, leading to a drop in 10-year Treasury yields to around 3%, and another where premature rate cuts occur without economic justification, potentially pushing yields above 5% [7] - The baseline forecast from ING suggests that 10-year Treasury yields will fluctuate around 4.5% before gradually declining to 4.25% by year-end [7] Group 6: Investment Strategies - First Source Bank emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in a volatile environment, recommending a diversified bond portfolio that includes investment-grade corporate bonds, municipal bonds, mortgage-backed securities, and selected high-yield options [8]

近几个月来，房利美与房地美已在其资产负债表上增加了数十亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券和住房贷款， 这引发了市场猜测：在为潜在的公开上市做准备之际，它们正试图压低贷款利率并提升盈利能力。 最新数据显示，截至10月的五个月内，这两家政府支持的住房金融巨头将其自持投资组合(即它们持有 而非出售给投资者的债券和贷款部分)增加了超过25%。这使其合并持仓规模升至2340亿美元，为2021 年以来最高。分析师估计，明年它们可能再增加高达1000亿美元。 尽管特朗普政府官员对MBS购买行为保持缄默，但他们今年已多次表示，将利用房利美和房地美的金 融实力来降低住房成本。政策制定者也一直在为将这两家公司重返公开市场铺路，此时距它们被政府接 管已近二十年。更大的自持投资组合可能会提振其盈利，并增强其在未来任何发行中对投资者的吸引 力。 然而目前，影响主要体现于9万亿美元的美国机构MBS市场。随着这两家政府支持企业大举买入债券， 它们正在抑制证券流入市场的数量并支撑其价格。此外，当利差扩大时有两个大型买家介入，也可能抑 制市场波动，并在此过程中改变投资者评估风险的方式。"如果你想降低抵押贷款利率，最直接的方法 之一就是指示GSE(政府支 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with market sentiment shifting towards a potential "Santa Rally" in the stock market as traders prepare for year-end performance [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The market anticipates a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [4]. - Goldman Sachs highlights that the labor market is weakening, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% and the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20-24 reaching 8.5%, indicating potential negative impacts on consumer spending [5][6]. - There is speculation about the Fed potentially restarting balance sheet expansion to increase market liquidity, with current assets at $6.5 trillion and bank reserves at $2.9 trillion [6][7]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Seasonal Trends - Despite a surprising sell-off in November, traders are preparing for a "Santa Rally," as December typically shows strong seasonal performance for U.S. stocks [8][9]. - The Nasdaq 100 index has historically shown the highest returns in December, with an average increase of 1.7%, while the S&P 500 index has a 75.6% probability of positive returns [10]. Group 3: Wall Street Outlook for 2026 - Major Wall Street firms maintain a positive outlook for the market, with Morgan Stanley projecting the S&P 500 to reach 7800 points in the next 12 months, driven by strong earnings growth and operational leverage [12]. - Bank of America adopts a more cautious stance, forecasting a target of 7100 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, citing concerns over liquidity and capital expenditure trends [13]. - Barclays notes a continuing trend of earnings divergence, with AI leaders showing resilience while smaller companies may have greater recovery potential [14].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing debate regarding the future leadership of the Federal Reserve, particularly the potential replacement of current Chairman Jerome Powell by Donald Trump, highlights conflicting economic ideologies, especially concerning interest rates and the size of the Fed's balance sheet [1][22]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell and is looking to appoint a successor who aligns with his economic views once Powell's term ends [1]. - The selection process for the new Fed chair is influenced by the ongoing discussions about whether to limit the Fed's asset size, which contradicts Trump's preference for low interest rates [3][20]. Group 2: Economic Policies - Trump's focus on low interest rates is aimed at easing government debt servicing and making loans more affordable for consumers [4]. - The Fed's balance sheet, which has exceeded $6 trillion, was expanded through quantitative easing to lower long-term interest rates during economic crises [6][8]. Group 3: Political Opinions - Republican voices have criticized the Fed for injecting too much cash into the financial system, arguing it disrupts market dynamics [10]. - Former Fed Governor Walsh advocates for reducing the Fed's size to lower short-term rates without triggering inflation, resonating with public sentiment against financial institution expansion [12]. Group 4: Future Implications - The debate over the Fed's balance sheet size reflects broader concerns about government spending and wealth inequality, with some arguing that the Fed's actions have exacerbated the wealth gap [23]. - The upcoming leadership decision will significantly impact how the Fed responds to future economic downturns, with a growing influence of the "balance sheet reduction" faction [27][29].

Core Insights - The recent tightening of the U.S. repo market has not raised excessive concerns, indicating an uneven liquidity environment [1][3] - The Federal Reserve is frustrated by the rising effective federal funds rate, which is only 2 basis points lower than the excess reserves rate [3] - The primary dynamic in the market is the tightening of the repo market, with the SOFR rate rising to 4%, significantly above the excess reserves rate [3][4] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current method to influence liquidity is through the purchase of Treasury securities, which is a blunt tool to address the appearance of liquidity tightness [4] - There is speculation that major dealers and qualified deposit institutions do not feel liquidity pressure, leading to minimal demand for liquidity despite the apparent need [3][4] - The effective federal funds rate is expected to remain above the excess reserves rate, which is not a technical issue as banks can use the federal funds window to prevent significant deviations [4] Group 2 - The bond market remains stable, with 2-year and 10-year yields showing little volatility despite pipeline issues [6] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is on a path to lower interest rates, potentially bringing the benchmark rate down to around 3% [6] - The 10-year Treasury yield has stabilized above 4.1% since Powell's comments on the December rate cut, with upcoming economic data likely to influence future movements [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve will stop reducing its balance sheet starting December 1, signaling a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [2] - The federal funds rate has been lowered by 25 basis points, maintaining a range of 3.75% to 4.00% [2] - The balance sheet reduction, which began in June 2022, aimed to normalize the Fed's balance sheet after it expanded significantly during the pandemic [2] Group 2 - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with net interest payments nearing defense spending levels, complicating monetary policy [3] - The Fed's policy decisions are increasingly influenced by fiscal sustainability, balancing inflation control against rising government financing costs [3] - The recent pause in balance sheet reduction reflects the Fed's struggle between fiscal pressures and its monetary policy objectives [3] Group 3 - Changes in U.S. monetary policy have significant global implications, affecting capital flows and currency valuations in emerging markets [5] - During the tightening phase, emerging markets faced capital outflows and currency depreciation, highlighting their vulnerability to U.S. policy shifts [5] - A potential shift to easing could lead to increased global liquidity, impacting commodity prices and asset valuations, raising concerns about financial bubbles [5] Group 4 - The U.S. monetary policy's challenges are symptomatic of long-term structural issues, including the hollowing out of domestic industries and reliance on debt [6] - The "America First" policy has accelerated a reevaluation of the dollar's role in the global economy, prompting some countries to explore alternative currencies [6] - The Fed's policy space is constrained by the need for low interest rates to manage debt, while excessive easing could undermine the dollar's credibility [6] Group 5 - The Fed's policy choices are increasingly focused on stabilizing the debt system rather than solely addressing employment and inflation [7] - The independence of monetary policy is being challenged as it becomes intertwined with government debt management [7] - Without addressing structural issues, the Fed may continue to face difficulties in balancing fiscal pressures with its policy goals, impacting its authority and effectiveness [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, is expected to increase the issuance of short-term bonds to lower long-term U.S. Treasury yields amid rising national debt, with a quarterly report due this Wednesday [1]. Group 1: Short-term Bond Issuance - Market participants anticipate that the Treasury will clarify its strategy to increase the proportion of short-term bonds in the $30 trillion national debt market [1]. - The proportion of short-term bonds has already exceeded 21% as of September this year, up from a long-term target of around 20% suggested by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee [2]. - Citigroup estimates that if the Treasury does not increase the issuance of medium- to long-term bonds, the share of short-term bonds could rise to over 26% by the end of 2027 [2]. Group 2: Impact of Federal Reserve Policies - The Federal Reserve's decision to stop reducing its Treasury holdings and to use cash from maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to purchase short-term bonds will support this strategy [1][4]. - JPMorgan estimates that the Fed's actions could create an additional demand of approximately $15 billion per month for Treasury bonds [4]. Group 3: Debt Refinancing and Cost Savings - The U.S. government may save up to $1 trillion due to lower refinancing costs from reduced benchmark interest rates and increased tariff revenues [3]. - The total expenditure on debt by the Treasury reached a record $1.22 trillion for the fiscal year ending September 30 [3]. Group 4: Upcoming Bond Issuances - Upcoming bond issuances include $58 billion in 3-year bonds on November 10, $42 billion in 10-year bonds on November 12, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds on November 13 [5].