Core Viewpoint - The number of small and medium-sized banks withdrawing their IPO applications is increasing, reflecting a strategic adjustment in response to the current regulatory and market environment [1][3][4]. Group 1: IPO Withdrawal Trends - Six small and medium-sized banks have withdrawn their IPO applications since the transition to the registration system in March 2023, including Guangzhou Bank and Shunde Rural Commercial Bank [1][3]. - The number of banks still in the IPO queue has decreased to five, with only one bank in the "inquired" status [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Regulatory Environment - The banking sector has entered a prolonged "window period" for A-share IPOs, with no new listings since January 2022 [2]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has indicated a "phased tightening" of the IPO pace, prioritizing technology companies over traditional banks for financing [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Strategic Adjustments - The banking industry is facing a low interest rate, low spread, and low profitability environment, with the net interest margin dropping to 1.43% in Q1 2023 [4]. - Banks are encouraged to enhance corporate governance and adopt differentiated operations based on regional economic characteristics to improve stability and performance [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The withdrawal of IPO applications is seen as a strategic adjustment rather than a complete exit from the capital market, with banks planning to resume their IPO efforts when market conditions improve [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector has shown strong performance, with all 42 stocks in the sector rising, driven by low interest rates and a preference for high dividend yields among long-term investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 4, 2023, the A-share banking sector has accumulated a rise of over 17% this year, with stocks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reaching new highs [1]. - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leads the sector with a year-to-date increase of over 40%, followed by banks like Qingdao Bank and Industrial Bank, each with gains exceeding 30% [2]. Group 2: Investment Appeal - The average dividend yield of the A-share banking sector is close to 4%, making it attractive compared to the current 10-year government bond yield of approximately 1.65% and a one-year deposit rate below 1% [2]. - Institutional investors, including insurance funds, are increasingly favoring bank stocks due to their stable returns and the ongoing reform in the public fund industry, which is expected to enhance demand for bank shares [2][3]. Group 3: Valuation Recovery - Recent increases in shareholdings by major shareholders and executives signal positive future prospects for banks, suggesting that the valuation recovery of the banking sector may accelerate [4]. - Several banks, including Suzhou Bank and Qingdao Bank, have announced plans for significant share buybacks, reflecting confidence in their long-term investment value [4]. Group 4: Funding Dynamics - The recent regulatory changes aimed at promoting the high-quality development of public funds are expected to bring short-term incremental capital to the banking sector [5]. - The demand for stable return equity assets from institutional investors, particularly insurance funds, continues to support the potential for increased allocation to bank stocks [5].

Group 1 - The banking sector index has increased by 2%, significantly contributing to the rise of the A-share market and stabilizing the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - Despite the short-term bullish outlook for banks, there is a caution against pursuing bank stocks due to a lack of value and recent profit declines reported in Q1 [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index is projected to potentially exceed a 10% increase this month, with current performance showing a 1.3% rise, indicating a possible upward trend towards previous highs [2] Group 2 - The technology and brokerage sectors are highlighted as areas of opportunity, suggesting a shift in focus away from banks [2] - The trading volume is expected to reach over 1.4 trillion, with a possibility of hitting 1.5 trillion by the end of the trading day, indicating increased market activity [1][2]

摘要 1、今天，A股三大指数冲高回落。仅有沪指顽强收红，银行板块再度领涨，发生了什么？ 2、 年内， 申万银行板块总市值达15.95万亿元，较年初增长2.37万亿元，原因何在？还能上车吗？ 3、 关税再迎大消息！下周7月9日， 即将迎来关税豁免到期日，会发生什么？对A股影响几何？投资上如何做好应对？ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1380 篇白话财经- - 今天，A股三大指数冲高回落，最终仅有沪指收红。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/7/4，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额1.43万亿元，盘面上，银行、电力等板块涨幅居前，电池、消费电子等板块下跌。 分析人士指出， 当前A股估值处于历史中等水平，且对比海外成熟市场来讲仍处于偏低位置。从风险溢价和股息率的角度来看，A股市场投资性价比相 对较高。 银行板块年内涨超2万亿元，还能上车吗 在市场波动之际，又是银行板块扛起了领涨大旗，今天再度涨超1%。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/7/4，不作投资推荐） 从年内表现看，银行指数上涨15.63%，位居申万一级行业涨幅榜前列， 申万银行板块总市值达15.95万亿元，较年初增长2.37万 ...

Core Insights - Chinese banks have shown remarkable performance in the 2025 Global Bank 1000 ranking, with four banks in the top five and six in the top ten, indicating a strong presence in the global banking sector [1][3] Group 1: Rankings and Performance - The top four banks globally are all Chinese: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of China, maintaining their positions for eight consecutive years [3] - China Merchants Bank improved its ranking from 10th to 8th, surpassing Wells Fargo, showcasing significant progress [3] - Chinese banks occupy half of the top 20 positions and 15 out of the top 50 banks, with no declines in rankings for the latter [4] Group 2: Individual Bank Strategies - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China achieved a 9.2% increase in total assets, focusing on loans to manufacturing, strategic emerging industries, and green development [6] - China Merchants Bank's success is attributed to its strong retail banking position and growth in non-interest income, which reached 126.2 billion yuan, accounting for 37.4% of its revenue [6] - Beijing Bank's growth strategy emphasizes regional development, with significant increases in technology and green loans, leading to a 43.69% rise in stock price [7] Group 3: Industry Trends - The global banking sector is experiencing increased concentration, with the top 20 banks accounting for 37.2% of total tier-one capital, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [8] - Chinese banks are expected to enhance their global competitiveness by solidifying capital structures and improving risk management capabilities [8] - There is a focus on supporting the real economy and adapting to global market conditions, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [8]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown strong performance, with multiple banks reaching historical highs and a total market capitalization of 15.7 trillion yuan, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 4, nine banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, reached historical highs, contributing to a 1.86% increase in the China Securities Banking Index, which has risen 17.7% year-to-date [1][2]. - All 42 stocks in the banking sector closed in the green, with 37 stocks increasing by over 10%, and 17 stocks rising by more than 20% [2]. - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank led the gains with a year-to-date increase of 41.69%, making it the only stock in the sector to exceed a 40% rise [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Performance - Analysts attribute the strong performance to a combination of low interest rates, high dividend yields, and improved asset quality, which have made bank stocks attractive to long-term investors [4][5]. - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 0.68, indicating potential for valuation recovery after being undervalued for an extended period [3][4]. - The recent changes in public fund management and performance evaluation are expected to lead to increased bank stock holdings by active funds, further supporting the sector's growth [5]. Group 3: Dividend Announcements - Several banks have announced significant dividend payouts, with China CITIC Bank declaring a cash dividend of 0.1722 yuan per share, and China Merchants Bank announcing a cash dividend of 2.000 yuan per share, totaling approximately 504.40 billion yuan [6][7]. - As of now, around 30 banks have finalized their 2024 profit distribution plans, with total cash dividends reaching 427.38 billion yuan, indicating a trend of increasing dividend payouts across the sector [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the decline in net profit and revenue for listed banks is expected to stabilize, with a projected year-on-year revenue decrease of 0.9% and a net profit decrease of 0.5% [8]. - The current market conditions are viewed as the beginning of a long-term bullish trend for bank stocks, driven by low interest rates and the revaluation of RMB assets [8].

# 读者福利 ， 欢迎留言互动， 7 月 11 日前，平台随机从留言中选取 1 位读者获赠本期推 荐好书！ 《货币之手》 【比】约翰·范·奥弗特维德（Johan Van Overtveldt）【比】斯汀·罗切（Stijn Rocher） 著 何平 译 湛庐文化/天津科学技术出版社 出版 比利时财政部前部长，欧洲议会预算委员会主席，整个欧盟金融和货币事务的"掌 舵人"。 专注于中央银行政策的学者型官员，拥有丰富的经济管理经验，深刻理解 现行的货币金融体系的现状与缺陷，能够一针见血地指出问题的核心本质，并提 出有建设性的改革建议。 内容简介 深度解析中央银行与全球经济大博弈 比利时财政部前部长重磅力作 透视非常规货币政策的八大危害 本书 聚焦中央银行在当代经济中的角色与影响，探究其政策对全球经济的塑造作 用。 全书围绕中央银行展开深入探讨，从历史与现实的多个维度，全面分析其在经济 发展中的角色与影响。书中重点聚焦 2007—2009年全球金融危机和新冠疫情期 间，中央银行所采取的一系列非常规货币政策，如量化宽松、负利率政策等。详 细剖析这些政策的实施背景、具体措施，以及在稳定金融市场、刺激经济增长方 面的成效与不 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 07 月 04 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 6 粤开市场日报-20250704 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数收跌。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.32%，收报 3472.32 点；深证成指跌 0.25%，收报 10508.76 点；科创 50 跌 0.01%，收报 984.80 点；创业板指跌 0.36%，收报 2156.32 点。总体上，全天个股跌多涨 少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 4118 只个股下跌，1169 只个股上涨，129 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 14285 亿元，较上个交易日放量 1188.11 亿 元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨少跌多，银行、传媒、综合、公用事业、 钢铁、煤炭等行业领涨，美容护理、有色金属、基础化工、轻工制造、环保、 机械设备等行业领跌。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为跨境支付、央企银行、数字货币、 ...

以下是本期直播主要内容。 近期，多家银行的股价创出历史新高，而"高股息"、"低估值"等标签的加持，更让市场始终对这一板块保 持高度关注。本期直播，我们邀请基金经理冷雪源做客直播间，并就投资者关心的银行板块问题予以解 答。 提问 有投资者问，上周五银行出现大幅调整，这次调整会持续一段时间，还是一次性的？ 冷雪源 季末或某一天行业股价的大幅波动，是由很多因素造成的，除了基本面发生突发事件，也有可能 是因为在季度末，一些资金出于配置需求或财务考核等问题，会做一些仓位调整。这些调整最终反映在某 日股价变动上。 在6月末，类似保险或公募基金这种大资金，可能进行了调仓，导致（季末）最后两天银行股价出现比较 大幅度的调整。这都是很短期的因素，所以本周银行股价基本回到了近期相对平稳的位置。季末调整属于 短期影响。 提问 所以还会涨吗？ 冷雪源 涨跌我们无法判断，股价始终还是受基本面影响波动，这也是我们做价值投资最底层的价值观。 提问 为什么银行的ROE都非常高，但是PB却很低，而且长期很低？ 冷雪源 银行的模式承担了信用派生功能，所以它天生就是高杠杆行业。我国通过资本充足率方式约束了 整个银行的杠杆水平，所以银行的ROA其实 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监证可【2012】31号 股 損 行 情 综 试 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | 2025/7/4 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.51 | -4.43 | DR007 | 1.91 | -3.79 | | | GC001 | 1.15 | -20.00 | GC007 | 1.49 | -1.50 | | ह | | | | | | | | | SHBOR 3M | 1.61 | -1.35 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 而 | 1年期国债 | 1.34 | -0.50 | 5年期国债 | 1.49 | 0.50 | | 市 | | | | | | | | | 10年期国债 | 1.65 | 0.10 | 10年期美债 | 4.30 | 4.00 | | ...