Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggests that the rise of stablecoins may lower the U.S. neutral interest rate, known as "r-star," and advocates for interest rate cuts to avoid hindering economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Stablecoins - The proliferation of stablecoins could lead to a decrease in the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate by approximately 0.4 percentage points [1]. - Stablecoins are increasing the demand for U.S. Treasury securities and other dollar-denominated liquid assets, a trend expected to continue [1][2]. - Even conservative estimates of stablecoin growth indicate an increase in the net supply of lendable funds in the economy, which would further lower the neutral interest rate [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - Milan has consistently advocated for a series of rapid interest rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of 50 basis points to align the policy rate closer to his estimate of the neutral rate [3]. - He believes the current neutral interest rate is significantly lower than most of his colleagues' estimates, indicating that the Federal Reserve's current policy stance is overly restrictive and burdensome for the economy [3]. - Milan cites various factors, including changes in immigration policy and tariffs, as additional evidence supporting his view that the neutral interest rate has declined [3].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, suggests that stablecoins could significantly lower the neutral interest rate (R) [1] - A decrease in R would imply a reduction in policy interest rates [1] - Stablecoins can fulfill demand when access to dollars is restricted, potentially increasing the supply of funds available for loans [1]

Core Viewpoint - The widespread use of stablecoins may increase the risk of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates, potentially lowering the neutral interest rate and affecting monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The rise of stablecoins could lead to a broader use of the US dollar, which may increase its value [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rates could be lowered as a result of the increased use of stablecoins [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should adopt a more cautious approach in future policy actions as interest rates are closer to neutral levels, which neither restrict nor stimulate the economy [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Current interest rates have a "slightly restrictive" impact on the economy, and a slowdown in policy actions is deemed wise as the Fed approaches neutral rates [1] - The overall economic situation in the U.S. has not changed significantly in recent months, characterized by "moderate growth" and a "gradual cooling" labor market [1] - Inflation rates are roughly stable compared to a year ago, influenced by tariff policies from the Trump administration, with signs indicating core inflation may be moving towards the Fed's 2% target [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed differing views on the monetary policy outlook since the recent interest rate decision [2] - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports the recent 25 basis point cut and suggests further slight reductions in policy rates are appropriate given the cooling labor market [2] - New York Fed President Williams believes the market's estimate of "neutral rates" may be too high, indicating room for further rate cuts without undermining inflation control [2] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard sees the past year's easing measures as necessary for labor market support, expecting 50 to 75 basis points of policy adjustment space [2] Group 3: Diverging Views on Rate Cuts - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee has adopted a more hawkish stance, indicating a higher threshold for supporting rate cuts and cautioning against premature easing due to persistent inflation [3] - Cleveland Fed President Mester emphasizes that current inflation remains "too high," suggesting that risks to the economy outweigh the labor market slowdown, and further easing may be premature [3] - Mester anticipates that inflation may not reach the Fed's 2% target until 2026 or later, indicating a prolonged period without achieving price stability [3]

Group 1 - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Harmack expressed ongoing concerns about high inflation levels, emphasizing that monetary policy should continue to focus on suppressing inflation [1][3] - Harmack noted that the current interest rate range is close to her estimate of the neutral rate, which neither stimulates nor suppresses economic growth, and she is more concerned about inflation than employment [5] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points, marking the second rate cut of the year, after maintaining rates for the first eight months to assess the impact of policy adjustments on the economy [3][5] Group 2 - Harmack highlighted that businesses are facing tough decisions regarding cost management, particularly in relation to rising health and property insurance costs, as well as electricity expenses [6] - A survey from the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank indicated that businesses with higher reliance on imports are more likely to pass on cost pressures to consumers, with over two-thirds of construction firms planning to transfer most or all tariff-related cost increases to clients [5][6] - Harmack observed that inflation indicators, particularly in core services excluding housing, have shown persistent pressure, suggesting that inflation may be more enduring than anticipated [6]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 11415, with an opening price of 11449 and a current price of 11424, reflecting a 0.68% increase. The highest price reached was 11485, while the lowest was 11264, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver futures [1]. - The Shanghai silver market closed around 11400, maintaining a previous view of a fluctuating range between 11100 and 11600. The focus is on whether the 11600 level will be broken, with potential buying opportunities if the price drops to around 11200 [5]. Group 2 - Williams stated that the U.S. economy is still in a low neutral interest rate environment, estimating the neutral rate to be around 0.5%, which is lower than bond market indications [2][4]. - In the context of policy-making, current data is deemed more important than estimates of the neutral interest rate [3].

1. 根据美国就业咨询公司"挑战者企业"周四公布，由于企业采纳人工智能并削减成本的影响开始浮现，美国雇主10月裁减超过15万个职务，创20 年来同期最大降幅。美国政府关门创史上最长纪录、导致官方数据缺席之际，民间机构的经济数据格外受投资者重视。 2. 挑战者报告的发布也令市场震荡。该报告显示，10月份企业裁员超过15万人，创下20多年来单月最大降幅。这一消息引发了市场对美联储12月 会议降息预期的重新评估。 3. 美联储官员们的立场也摇摆不定，其中克利夫兰联储主席哈马克坚持其鹰派言论。与此同时，美联储理事巴尔的态度则略显中立，呼应了纽约 联储主席威廉姆斯的一些观点，后者表示中性利率将在1%左右。 ●FPG fortune prime global分析师观点： FPG特约分析师（Felix）观点： ●FPG最新市场脱水消息： | | 黄金 (XAUUSD) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日图 K 线呈现: 偏空 日内方向 | | | | | 4010 阻力 | | 4024 | 4045 | | 3990 支撑 | | 3982 | 3972 | | 动能 | 动力强（实时 ...

但芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比则表达了对降息路径的担忧。他称，由于政府停摆导致官方通胀数据暂时缺 失，决策者可能无法及时发现物价风险，这让他对继续降息"愈发不安"。古尔斯比强调，在缺乏关键信 息的情况下采取宽松政策存在风险。 当前，美国劳动力市场虽有降温迹象，但仍处于"总体健康"区间。哈马克预计到2026年初，失业率仅会 略高于长期均衡水平，她认为这进一步说明当前应优先控制通胀，而非过度担忧就业。如不及时遏制通 胀，长期高物价可能固化在经济中，造成更大成本。 智通财经APP获悉，周四，美联储官员就货币政策前景发表多项讲话，就当前货币政策走向释放出不同 信号。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，当前通胀仍"过高"，并对经济构成的风险大于劳动力市场放缓。她强 调，货币政策应继续对通胀施压，并指出目前利率水平"几乎不具限制性"，暗示进一步降息可能过早。 哈马克预计，美国通胀最快也要在2026年之后一两年才能降至美联储2%的目标，这意味着美联储将连 续近十年未能实现物价稳定目标。她还透露，辖区内企业反馈成本压力正在回升，并计划陆续向消费者 转嫁价格。 与此同时，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表了相对鸽派的讲话。他表示，市场对"中性利率" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials are increasingly divided on whether to continue interest rate cuts in December, with concerns about inflation and data gaps due to the government shutdown being central to the debate [1][2][3]. Group 1: Divergence Among Federal Reserve Officials - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expresses caution regarding further rate cuts due to missing inflation data caused by the government shutdown, suggesting a more careful approach [1][3]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack argues that inflation is a more pressing concern than a weak labor market, advocating for continued pressure on inflation through monetary policy [1][4]. - New York Fed President John Williams indicates that the low interest rate environment persists, estimating the neutral interest rate around 1%, and emphasizes the importance of current data over model estimates [2][6]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Inflation Concerns - Goolsbee highlights that core inflation, excluding food and energy, has risen by 3.6% year-over-year, which is significantly above the Fed's 2% target, raising concerns about premature rate cuts [3]. - Hammack predicts that inflation may not reach the Fed's 2% target until 2026 or later, suggesting that the Fed may struggle to achieve its price stability goals for much of the next decade [4]. - The economic landscape is described as a "two-speed economy," with significant disparities in performance between wealthier households and others, complicating the Fed's approach to maintaining a robust job market [7]. Group 3: Recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Decisions - The FOMC's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points has revealed rare internal divisions, with two members voting against the decision, indicating differing views on the appropriate monetary policy direction [5][8]. - Some officials, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, express a preference for maintaining current rates unless clear evidence shows inflation decreasing faster than expected [8][9]. - The ongoing government shutdown and lack of official data are leading some officials to rely more on anecdotal evidence from businesses regarding rising costs and inflationary pressures [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan expresses a preference for adjusting the neutral interest rate in increments of 50 basis points, while many colleagues favor 25 basis points adjustments. There is no need to cut rates by 75 basis points or to compensate for previous cuts, with expectations for a rate cut in December [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve aims to reach a neutral interest rate through systematic adjustments [1] - There is a divergence in opinion among Federal Reserve officials regarding the pace of interest rate adjustments [1] - The expectation of a rate cut in December indicates a shift in monetary policy direction [1]