2025.07. 04 本文字数：1134，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 一财资讯 ①华泰证券：6月非农再超预期，7月降息概率回落 华泰证券表示，6月新增非农数据再超预期，美联储7月降息概率进一步下降，但考虑到关税、移民放缓 对三季度新增就业的拖累，维持联储9月-12月两次预防式降息的判断。6月新增非农超预期、失业率超预 期下行或受到多个因素干扰，未改变就业市场放缓的趋势：6月天气偏热叠加罢工拖累消退，对新增非农 提振约在3-4万人左右；5-6月美国劳动力规模下降75.5万人、劳动参与率合计下行0.3pp，背后或是由 于驱逐移民"压低"就业均衡增长率（即失业率不会上行的新增就业水平）。往前看，伴随移民放缓等对美 国经济特别是需求端滞后影响进一步显现，加之前瞻指标NFIB企业招聘意愿显示6月后新增非农走弱风险 上升，三季度就业或有所走弱，故维持联储9月-12月两次预防式降息的判断。 ②中信证券：预计美联储将在9月的议息会议上再度降息 中信证券研报表示，2025年6月美国新增非农就业人数超预期，失业率低于预期。不过，本份非农报告实 则显示美国就业市场继续走弱。依旧认为美国就业市场"缓冲垫"有限，就业市场继续走弱失 ...

报 告 正 文 新增非农上升，但由政府支撑。 6 月新增非农就业人数略升至 14.7 万人。分行业来看，本月政府贡献了一半的新增就业，而私营部门新增就业从 5 月的 13.7 万人大幅放缓至 7.4 万人。政府方面，新增就业源于州和地方的教育岗位，而联邦政府继续裁员。私营部门方面，本月服务业新增就业仅录得 6.8 万 人，较上月大幅减少 7.3 万人，与 6 月新增 ADP 就业转负相互映证。 私营部门就业走弱。 具体行业来看， 6 月新增就业约一半来自政府部门，并且主要为州和地方的教育岗位，联邦政府继续裁员。服务业就业大幅降温， 其中教育保健、休闲酒店和金融活动新增就业下降最多，较上月分别下降 3.2 万人、 9000 人和 7000 人。此外，制造业就业仍受关税政策压制，继续下 降 7000 人。 失业率下降，但更多人退出劳动力市场 。 6 月失业率小幅下降 0.1 个百分点至 4.1% ，不过， 6 月劳动参与率录得 62.3% ，较上月下降 0.1 个百 分点，永久退出劳动力市场的人数增加。从结构来看，本月失业人数虽减少 22.2 万人，但就业人数仅增加 9.3 万人，劳动力市场趋弱。此外， 25- ...

菲律宾央行：将通过确保货币政策有利于可持续经济增长和就业来维护物价稳定。 ...

123456789:;<2025-07-04 !"#$%&'()*+,-.$%/0 ——!"#$%&'(1 !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'() *+,-./01121/34 5) !"#$% 7 月 3 日，美国劳工部公布数据显示，美国 6 月非农就业人口增加 14.7 万人，预期 11 万人，前值由 13.9 万人修正为 14.4 万人； 6 月失业率为 4.1%，低于预期的 4.3%和上个 月的 4.2%。 &'"( ■ 6 !"#$%&'7 !()*+,-(. 招聘和空缺：招聘需求趋缓，职位空缺回升。 1）截止 2025 年 6 月，招聘计划月均小 幅回落至 3191 万人，较 5 月均值回落近 5500 人，而在 2021 年时为 12.7 万人（2019 年 时为 10.4万人）。2）截止 2025年 6月，修正后的非政府部门职位空缺数升至 693.6万， 但相比较 2022 年 1000 万以上的高点持续放缓（其中制造业缺口降至 41.4 万人）。 非农就业：新增就业总量回落，失业率有所回落。 1 ...

Market Performance - The US stock market experienced strong performance on July 3, with all three major indices rising. The S&P 500 index increased by 51.94 points, or 0.83%, closing at 6279.36 points. The Nasdaq Composite index climbed 207.97 points, or 1.02%, ending at 20601.10 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 344.11 points, or 0.77%, closing at 44828.53 points. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices set new closing records, marking the S&P 500's seventh record close of the year and the Nasdaq's fourth record close of the year. Due to the public holiday, the US stock market closed early with relatively light trading volume [1]. Technology Sector - The technology sector was the main driver of the market's rise, with several leading tech stocks recording significant gains. Nvidia's stock price rose by 1.3%, reaching a historic high with a market capitalization of $3.89 trillion. The company briefly surpassed the $3.9 trillion market cap threshold, coming close to Apple's record for the highest global market capitalization. Amazon's stock increased by 1.59%, Microsoft by 1.58%, and Meta Platforms by 0.76%. Apple saw a 0.52% increase, while Alphabet rose by 0.5%. Tesla was an exception in the tech sector, closing down by 0.1% [3]. - Nvidia's strong performance was supported by multiple factors. OpenAI recently announced it would not adopt Google's TPU chips on a large scale and would continue to rely on Nvidia's GPUs and AMD's AI accelerators for its model training and inference work. OpenAI's reasoning was that these two chip manufacturers' products are "performance-validated" and have "existing supply agreements." This statement sent a positive signal to the market, indicating that Nvidia and AMD will remain core suppliers for OpenAI, potentially limiting Google's growth in the AI hardware market share [3]. Employment Data - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June non-farm payrolls exceeded market expectations, providing significant support for the stock market. In June, non-farm employment increased by 147,000 jobs, far surpassing analysts' expectations of 110,000, representing a 33% increase. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and increased by 3.7% year-over-year, indicating a moderate wage growth trend that helps alleviate inflationary pressures [4]. - Employment growth showed structural characteristics, with government sector employment increasing by 73,000 jobs, primarily driven by state and local education positions. Healthcare added 39,000 jobs, and social assistance increased by 19,000 jobs. The federal government saw a reduction of 7,000 jobs due to layoffs. Additionally, employment data for the previous two months was revised upward, with April's figures adjusted from 147,000 to 158,000 and May's from 139,000 to 144,000, totaling an upward revision of 16,000 jobs [4]. - The strong employment data impacted expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Before the data release, traders estimated a 25% probability of a rate cut in July. Following the report, market expectations for a short-term rate cut quickly diminished. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicated that the likelihood of a July rate cut fell to single digits, and the expectation for a 25 basis point cut in September decreased from 74% a week prior to 68% [4].

曾经在采访中对AI影响就业问题闪烁其词的美国企业CEO们，如今开始直言不讳地预测这项技术可能 将带来的大规模裁员。据《华尔街日报》7月2日报道，从汽车制造商到金融巨头，越来越多的企业领导 者公开表示AI将显著削减白领职位。 福特汽车CEO Jim Farley上周在阿斯彭创意节上表示，"人工智能将取代美国字面意思上一半的白领工作 者"。摩根大通消费者和社区银行业务CEO Marianne Lake也在5月向投资者透露，该公司运营部门人员 数量可能在未来几年因使用新AI工具而减少10%。 然而，并非所有科技高管都持悲观态度。 OpenAI首席运营官Brad Lightcap上周在"Hard Fork"播客中表示，他不认为对初级员工的影响会像一些人 预测的那样迅速和全面。但他承认岗位流失不可避免，并指出任何新技术都会导致劳动力市场变化。 人工智能公司Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei在5月接受Axios采访时预测，一到五年内，一半的入门级工 作可能消失，导致美国失业率达到10%至20%。他敦促企业高管和政府官员停止"粉饰"这一情况。 自由职业平台Fiverr的CEO Micha Kaufman今 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by strong U.S. employment data, while central bank gold purchasing trends provide long-term support for prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 775.68 CNY per gram, down 0.4% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3337.5 USD per ounce, down 0.16% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Strong U.S. employment data for June exceeded expectations, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which in turn pressured gold prices [2]. - Over 90% of surveyed central banks believe they will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, with net purchases expected to exceed 1300 tons by 2025 [3]. - Recent geopolitical stability and trade negotiations have reduced gold's safe-haven demand, although potential increases in U.S. debt could enhance its appeal [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term outlook suggests gold may remain weak unless there is a significant deterioration in U.S. unemployment or inflation data [4]. - Long-term potential for gold price increases exists due to weakening U.S. dollar credibility and ongoing central bank purchases, but geopolitical and trade developments must be closely monitored [4].

金十数据7月4日讯，中信证券研报表示，2025年6月美国新增非农就业人数超预期，失业率低于预期。 不过，本份非农报告实则显示美国就业市场继续走弱。我们依旧认为美国就业市场"缓冲垫"有限，就业 市场继续走弱失业率或将加快上行。然而，6月4.1%的失业率给了鲍威尔更多"理由"观察夏季关税对通 胀的影响，我们延续此前观点，预计美联储将在9月的议息会议上再度降息。 中信证券：预计美联储将在9月的议息会议上再度降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing attitudes of university students towards graduation and social relationships, highlighting a sense of disconnection and anxiety among the 2025 graduating class, as evidenced by their reluctance to participate in traditional activities like graduation photos [3][4][5]. Group 1: Graduation Attitudes - Many students from the 2025 cohort express disinterest in taking graduation photos, citing reasons such as lack of meaning and a sense of obligation rather than joy [3][4][8]. - The reluctance to capture memories reflects a broader sentiment of anxiety and pressure to validate their existence within the academic environment [8][41]. Group 2: Social Relationships - The article illustrates a shift in social dynamics among students, where relationships are characterized by distance and self-preservation rather than closeness and camaraderie [5][11][36]. - Students maintain a "smooth yet indifferent" relationship with roommates and classmates, often avoiding conflict and emotional investment [11][36]. Group 3: Impact of the Pandemic - The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced students' social interactions, leading to a preference for maintaining distance, which some students find liberating as it alleviates the pressures of intimate relationships [5][6]. - The pandemic has also contributed to a lack of social imagination, with students feeling less inclined to engage in meaningful connections [6][20]. Group 4: Academic and Career Pressures - The article highlights the intense pressure students feel regarding their academic and career paths, with many feeling compelled to conform to societal expectations of success [20][25]. - Students often prioritize activities that enhance their employability over personal interests, leading to a sense of disillusionment with their educational experience [20][25]. Group 5: Identity and Recognition - The quest for self-identity among students is complicated by societal pressures, where external validation becomes a primary measure of self-worth [20][30]. - Students engage in selective social interactions based on shared interests, often leading to a superficial understanding of one another [30][33].

Core Insights - The establishment of "Le Ye Xiao Zhan" employment service stations in Zhengzhou aims to address the structural contradiction between the high demand for labor from enterprises and the employment difficulties faced by residents [1][2][3] - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to create a "15-minute employment service circle," enhancing accessibility to job opportunities and services for local residents [2][3] Group 1: Employment Service Stations - "Le Ye Xiao Zhan" serves as a community-based platform providing various employment services, including policy promotion, job guidance, and vocational training, facilitating local employment [1] - The service model is tailored to meet the specific needs of industries, such as the high turnover in the restaurant sector, by actively engaging with businesses to address their labor requirements [1][2] Group 2: Regional Employment Initiatives - The initiative has expanded across Zhengzhou and is being piloted in various regions throughout the province, establishing a comprehensive "1+19+N" labor market service system [2][3] - By the end of May, the province had constructed 336 new employment service stations and transformed 1,135 locations into labor markets or service stations, achieving near-complete coverage at the county level [3] Group 3: Community Impact - The employment service stations not only provide physical spaces for job seekers but also represent a significant transformation of the traditional employment service system, enhancing service delivery to underserved areas [3] - The initiative aims to create a comprehensive public employment service system that is efficient, accessible, and responsive to the needs of diverse populations, including those in rural and remote areas [3]