宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2026 年 03 月 01 日 商品价格普遍上涨 ——全球经济观察 2026 年第 2 期 投资要点： 一、全球资产价格表现 宏 观 定 期 报 商品普遍上涨。股市方面，本周全球主要股市涨多跌少，美股三 大指数均有下跌。债市方面，10 年期美债收益率较上周下行 11bp。商 品方面，美伊地缘风险推动商品价格普涨。原油价格上涨，伦敦金价 上升 3.3%。汇率方面，美元指数回落 0.1%，离岸人民币兑美元升值 0.5%。 二、主要央行货币政策 告 美联储正推进"去监管"。2 月 26 日，美联储副主席鲍曼在国会 发表证词，系统阐述了对银行业监管框架的全面改革计划。她表示， 对于大型银行，美联储在推动对监管框架的修订，包括资本框架的四 大支柱进行调整：压力测试、补充杠杆率、巴塞尔协议 III 框架以及全 球系统重要性银行附加费。日央行方面，日本央行行长暗示若春季工 资谈判取得超预期增长，3 月或 4 月可能加息。 三、美国经济动态 美国房贷利率跌破 6%。本周美国 30 年期抵押贷款利率跌破 6%， 为 2022 年 9 月以来首次，随着利率下降，房地产需求或复苏。2025 年 12 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The EU leaders convened to address the urgent need to enhance competitiveness amid economic downturns and geopolitical risks, focusing on energy costs and internal market operations [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Competitiveness - The meeting's primary agenda was to find ways to lower energy costs and improve the functioning of the EU's internal market to help European businesses remain competitive against the US and China [1][3]. - European industrial electricity prices are reported to be more than double those in the US and China, highlighting the urgent need for a unified energy market [3][4]. - The EU is considering the "European priority" policy to support local industries in strategic sectors like clean technology, chemicals, steel, automotive, and defense [4][5]. Group 2: Divergence Among Member States - There are significant disagreements among EU member states regarding the implementation of the "European priority" policy, with countries like France advocating for it while others, including Germany and Ireland, express concerns about maintaining free trade principles [5][6]. - The meeting is expected to reveal whether member states can overcome their individual interests to reach a collective action plan [8][9]. Group 3: Regulatory Challenges - EU leaders discussed the need to reduce excessive regulations that complicate business operations, such as differing weight limits for trucks across borders [8][9]. - The current global economic order is perceived as fragile, with calls for a shift from a confederation to a federation to enhance decision-making and unity among member states [8][9]. Group 4: Historical Context and Meeting Significance - The choice of a castle for the meeting symbolizes a retreat from public scrutiny, allowing leaders to engage in serious discussions about Europe's future [10][12]. - Historical precedents show that such secluded meetings have been used to address critical issues, indicating the importance of the current discussions for the EU's stability and competitiveness [12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The market risk appetite is fluctuating, with most stock markets rising and most bond yields rebounding. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has significant impacts on the market. His policy preference of rate - cuts plus balance - sheet reduction has suppressed market risk appetite, but in the long - term, it is positive for the US stocks. The short - term market is highly volatile, and asset prices are expected to oscillate in the next few months [1][2][10][11][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite is wavering. Most stock markets are up, and most bond yields are rising, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.24%. The US dollar index drops 0.62% to 96.99, and most non - US currencies appreciate. Gold prices fall 1.9% to $4894 per ounce, the VIX index rises to 17.4, the spot commodity index closes up, and Brent crude oil rises 6.8% to $72.7 per barrel [1][5][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise, with the S&P 500 up 0.34% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting keeps rates unchanged. Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair suppresses market risk appetite, but in the long - run, it is positive for US stocks. The US government's partial shutdown has little overall impact. The domestic stock market is more volatile, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Most global bond yields slightly decline, while the US Treasury yield rises to 4.24%. Warsh's policy preference may steepen the US Treasury yield curve, but the government shutdown causes the yield to fall. After the shutdown ends, the yield is expected to rise. The weakening of the US dollar index eases the pressure on emerging - market bond markets. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield oscillates slightly down to 1.81%, and the bond market is expected to be slightly strong in the short - term [14][18][21] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.62% to 96.99, and most non - US currencies appreciate. The offshore RMB falls 0.13%, while the euro, pound, yen, and Swiss franc rise, and some other currencies also have different performances [24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Gold falls 1.9% to $4894 per ounce, and there is still short - term downward space. Brent crude oil rises 6.8% to $72.7 per barrel. The commodity spot index closes up, but commodities are under short - term pressure [27][29] 3.3 Hot - spot Tracking - The nomination of Warsh as Fed Chair causes the US dollar to strengthen in the short - term. The market may have over - interpreted his impact on monetary policy. In practice, the main policy orientation is likely to be rate - cuts, and asset prices are expected to oscillate in the next few months [3][32] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminder - Monday: US January ISM Manufacturing PMI - Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia interest - rate meeting decision; US December JOLTs job openings - Wednesday: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement; US ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI - Thursday: Bank of England interest - rate meeting decision; ECB interest - rate meeting decision - Friday: US January non - farm payrolls report [33]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to market volatility and a rebound in the US dollar[1] - Warsh's focus is on supply-side reforms, influenced by Friedman’s monetary theories, aiming to reduce the Fed's market impact through balance sheet reduction[1] - Despite expectations for a strong dollar, Warsh is anticipated to respond to Trump's calls for interest rate cuts[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - Domestic consumption shows stability, with metro passenger volume increasing by 1.3% year-on-year, but flight numbers and box office revenues are down by 1.4% and 13.5% respectively compared to last year[2] - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded a decline to 51.3%, indicating a pulse-like recovery influenced by the late Spring Festival and commodity price fluctuations[3] - CPI shows a mixed trend with vegetable prices dropping by 0.6% while egg prices rose by 3.2%[4] Group 3: External Economic Factors - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1,200.5, reflecting a 1.3% increase year-on-year, indicating rising external demand[2] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.5% while Brent crude rose by 1.8%, driven by geopolitical tensions[6] - The US economy is projected to grow at a rate of 2.1% in Q1, with durable goods orders rising by 0.5% month-on-month, surpassing expectations[9]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor appointed by President Trump, advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, arguing that the Trump administration's deregulation agenda will significantly boost productivity and potential growth, thereby justifying continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Deregulation and Economic Impact - Miran asserts that the ongoing comprehensive deregulation will enhance competition, productivity, and potential growth, allowing the economy to achieve faster growth without upward inflationary pressures [2][3]. - He predicts that by early 2025, 30% of federal regulations will be eliminated, which he believes will have a substantial positive impact on productivity and exert downward pressure on prices, supporting a more accommodative monetary policy stance [1][2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Miran has expressed a desire for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by approximately 150 basis points by 2026 to support labor market recovery, arguing that current rates are significantly above neutral levels and that monetary policy remains restrictive [4]. - He estimates the core inflation rate to be around 2.3%, indicating that inflation is within a manageable range, allowing for potential rate cuts without triggering unnecessary inflation [4]. - The divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials is highlighted, with some supporting further rate cuts due to labor market concerns, while others advocate for caution given inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target [4].

Core Viewpoint - Chile is experiencing a significant political shift to the right with the election of José Antonio Kast, who promises to implement strict border policies and return to free-market principles, reshaping the geopolitical landscape in Latin America and aligning the country with Western conservative forces [1][5]. Group 1: Election Results and Political Implications - José Antonio Kast won the presidential election with 58% of the vote, marking one of the most significant electoral margins since Chile's return to democracy in 1990 [1][2]. - Kast's victory is seen as a resurgence of right-wing political power in Latin America, providing a new ally for the U.S. in its anti-immigration policies [1][5]. Group 2: Crime and Immigration Policies - Kast's campaign focused on addressing public concerns over rising crime rates, with many citizens attributing the increase in violence to illegal immigration, particularly from Venezuela [3]. - He proposed radical border control measures, including building a 16-foot high wall and a 10-foot deep trench along the northern border, and deploying soldiers equipped with thermal drones for surveillance [3]. Group 3: Economic Policies and Reforms - Kast aims to revitalize Chile's economy, which has seen a slowdown in growth to around 2% annually, compared to previous rates exceeding 6% [4]. - His economic plan includes cutting corporate taxes, reducing regulations, and implementing a $6 billion reduction in public spending, which represents about 2% of Chile's economic output [4]. Group 4: International Relations and Trade - The election outcome is viewed as a potential boost for U.S. influence in Latin America, with Kast expected to seek closer ties with the United States [5]. - Kast emphasizes continued support for free trade and a trade-based economic success model, even amid rising global trade barriers [4].

Core Points - The "Genesis Mission" is a new initiative by the Trump administration aimed at establishing the U.S. as a leader in AI, likened to historical projects like the Manhattan and Apollo programs [1][3] - The plan is criticized for being contradictory, as it emerges during a period of significant cuts to federal research budgets, raising questions about its sincerity and feasibility [3][14] Group 1: Policy Framework - The "Genesis Mission" represents a shift from a free-market approach to a more state-driven model of technological development, integrating federal resources and private sector capabilities [4][5] - The initiative aims to create the "American Science and Security Platform," consolidating vast scientific data and computational resources under the Department of Energy [4][6] Group 2: Budget and Funding Issues - The plan lacks a clear budget commitment, with the phrase "subject to available appropriations" appearing multiple times, indicating no new funding has been promised [6][14] - Significant cuts to federal research budgets are proposed, including a 57% reduction for the National Science Foundation and a 40% cut for the National Institutes of Health, which contradicts the mission's goals [14][19] Group 3: Implementation Challenges - The Department of Energy is tasked with leading the initiative, which raises concerns about its capacity to manage cross-disciplinary AI research effectively [7][10] - The plan faces potential obstacles in data integration and collaboration between public and private sectors, with unclear rules regarding responsibilities and intellectual property [16][17] Group 4: Political Context - The "Genesis Mission" is part of a broader trend in U.S. policy that increasingly emphasizes nationalistic and competitive rhetoric in response to China's advancements in AI [5][12] - The initiative reflects a tension between short-term political goals and the long-term nature of scientific research, which typically requires sustained investment over decades [18][19]

Market Overview - The market has shown signs of fatigue over the past three to four weeks, with only about 50% of stocks above their 50-day average, indicating a lack of momentum [3] - Despite recent volatility, the market is expected to maintain support levels around 6,400 to 6,450, with a potential move towards 7,000 by year-end [4] Economic Indicators - Cyclical stocks are outperforming defensive stocks, and credit conditions remain benign, suggesting a generally healthy economic environment [3][8] - The recent market sell-off was triggered by concerns over potential trade tensions with China, particularly the announcement of 100% tariffs effective November 1st [6] Sector Performance - Healthcare has begun to show positive trends, raising questions about whether this will extend to other defensive sectors like staples and REITs [5] - Consumer stocks are expected to respond positively to lower oil prices and interest rates, but there is uncertainty about their performance heading into 2026 [11] Regulatory Environment - A significant deregulatory push across various industries, including banking and energy, is noted, which may impact market dynamics [12] - The performance of financial stocks, particularly money center banks, is crucial for the overall market outlook, as they have been leading for the past two years [13]

Core Viewpoint - The SEC under new chairman Paul Atkins is shifting towards a more flexible regulatory approach, considering allowing companies to report semi-annually instead of quarterly, emphasizing a "minimum effective dose" of regulation to foster business growth [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The SEC is contemplating the elimination of mandatory quarterly financial reports for most U.S. public companies, aligning with previous proposals from the Trump administration to provide greater flexibility for businesses [1][2]. - Atkins argues that the SEC has deviated from its original mission to maintain trust in capital markets and that the market should determine the optimal reporting frequency based on industry, size, and investor expectations [2]. Group 2: Critique of European Regulations - Atkins criticizes the European regulatory model, particularly the EU's recent sustainability reporting directives, claiming they are driven by "theorists" and may impose unnecessary burdens on companies without providing significant financial insights [3][4]. - He warns that such mandatory requirements could increase costs for U.S. investors and customers while offering little benefit in guiding capital decisions [4]. Group 3: Investor Concerns - The SEC's proposed shift to semi-annual reporting has raised concerns among investor advocacy groups, who fear it may reduce market transparency and harm smaller investors with limited access to information [5]. - Critics argue that mandatory and frequent disclosures are essential for maintaining market fairness and efficiency, countering Atkins' belief in market self-regulation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The SEC is shifting its regulatory approach under new Chairman Paul Atkins, considering allowing companies to adopt semi-annual reports instead of quarterly ones, emphasizing a "minimum effective dose" of regulation to foster business growth [1][2][3] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - Paul Atkins aims to remove the SEC's influence, allowing the market to determine the best reporting frequency based on industry, size, and investor expectations [1][3] - This move aligns with former President Trump's proposals to ease financial reporting requirements, marking a departure from the stringent regulatory agenda of former Chairman Gary Gensler [1][3] - Atkins argues that the goal of regulation should be to protect investors while allowing businesses to thrive, rather than catering to shareholders with non-financial motives [3] Group 2: Comparison with Other Markets - Atkins cites the UK as an example where companies have the flexibility to choose their reporting frequency, suggesting that the market can effectively determine the necessary level of information disclosure [3] - He criticizes the European regulatory model, particularly recent directives that require disclosures of socially significant but financially irrelevant matters, arguing that these could impose unnecessary costs on U.S. investors [4][5] Group 3: Investor Concerns - The SEC's potential shift to semi-annual reporting has raised concerns among investor advocacy groups, who warn that it may reduce market transparency and harm smaller investors [6] - Critics argue that mandatory and frequent disclosures are essential for maintaining market fairness and efficiency, countering Atkins' belief in market self-regulation [6]