Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-share bank stocks is attributed to a series of supportive financial policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, which enhance the stability and profitability of banks [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Policies Impact - On May 7, the People's Bank of China announced a package of financial measures, including a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates and a 0.5 percentage point decrease in the reserve requirement ratio [2]. - The introduction of 500 billion yuan for consumer and pension re-loans is expected to further stimulate bank lending and improve asset quality [2]. - Analysts believe that these policies will lead to a stable credit supply and manageable asset quality pressures for banks [2]. Group 2: Market Performance - On May 8, bank stocks continued to perform strongly, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reaching a new high of 11.69 yuan per share, and Jiangsu Bank closing up 2.46% at 10.41 yuan per share, pushing its market capitalization above 191 billion yuan [1]. - Other banks, such as Qingnong Commercial Bank and Qingdao Bank, also saw significant gains, with increases exceeding 3% [1]. - Bank-related ETFs also performed well, with several ETFs showing gains of over 1% [1]. Group 3: Institutional Investment - Insurance funds have shown a strong preference for bank stocks, holding 27.82 billion shares valued at 265.78 billion yuan as of the end of the first quarter, making banks the top holdings [3]. - The trend of institutional investment in bank stocks is expected to accelerate, enhancing the dividend value of the banking sector [3]. - Analysts suggest that the high dividend yield characteristic of bank stocks makes them attractive for long-term investors, reinforcing their strategic value in both short and long-term portfolios [3].

Group 1 - The concept of free cash flow is crucial in Buffett's value investment philosophy, reflecting a company's ability to return value to shareholders and creditors, as well as its capacity for future development [1] - Free cash flow has advantages over net profit as it is derived from the cash flow statement, which has higher transparency and is less susceptible to manipulation [1] - Recent market trends show an increase in cash flow ETFs, which primarily use free cash flow yield as a selection criterion, indicating a long-term effectiveness of cash flow strategies in the A-share large and mid-cap stock selection [1][2] Group 2 - Cash flow ETFs and strategies are considered to have advantages over dividend strategies, as they can better avoid value traps and provide timely insights into a company's cash flow [2] - The FTSE Free Cash Flow Index has shown a remarkable annualized return of over 20% from the end of 2013 to 2024, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises and companies with high dividend yields and low valuations [2] - Recent policy changes, including the new "National Nine Articles" and market value management regulations, encourage companies with high free cash flow to convert it into dividends and buybacks, enhancing shareholder returns [3] Group 3 - The upcoming dividend season and potential easing of external trade tensions create an opportunity for cash flow ETFs to be a core asset allocation, suggesting a strategy of gradual accumulation during market dips [3]

央行官宣降准又降息，银行全天走势较强。截至2025年5月7日收盘，A股顶流银行ETF（512800）高开高走，场内价格上涨1.51%，连收5日、10日线，重返 所有均线上方，全天成交额超5亿元，环比放量逾1亿。 | 分时 多日 = | 综合屏 F9 前复权 超级参加 画线 工具 ◇ ② » | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512800.SHI银行ETFI 2025/01/06 收 1.455 幅0.90%(0.013) 开 1.444 四 | | | 1 542 +0.023 +1.51% | | | | MA5 1.467 MA10 1.4721 MA20 1.4521 MA60 1.4191 MA120 1.3511 NY = 0 | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 15:00:18 闭市 | | | | | | | 净值走势 华宝中证银行ETF | | 文生 3.84% | | 1.542 | | 委比 | -4.46% 委差 | -3763 | 5 5 -0.19% | | | | 375 | 1.546 | 24 ...

Group 1 - The first batch of 12 CSI All Share Free Cash Flow ETFs was approved in April, with five funds already established and listed by May 6 [2] - The ETFs aim to track the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index, focusing on listed companies with high cash flow characteristics [2] - Notable institutional investors in the ETFs include companies like Shanxi Changtai Energy Group and Datong Xingergou Coal Industry, indicating interest from corporate entities in these financial products [2][4] Group 2 - The Southern Free Cash Flow ETF raised a total of 1.909 billion yuan, with significant holdings from Sichuan Longmang Group [4] - The trend of private equity firms increasing their participation in the ETF market is evident, with several private institutions appearing among the top holders of newly established ETFs [6] - The investment strategy focusing on high dividend and free cash flow companies is seen as a key theme for equity markets this year, with regulatory support encouraging companies to enhance investor returns through dividends and buybacks [8]

第一大重仓行业是银行 Wind数据显示，剔除受自持因素影响的中国人寿、中国平安、平安银行三只个股后，截至2025年一季 度末，险资出现在735只个股的前十大流通股东名单中，合计持股数量为607.98亿股，合计持股市值 5808.83亿元。 其中，银行股受到险资青睐。整体来看，险资一季度对银行股加仓1.88亿股。一季度末，险资对银行股 的持股数量为278.21亿股，合计持股市值2657.8亿元，持股数量和市值均在险资持股行业中位居首位。 在险资持股名单中，前十大重仓股中有7只为银行股，包括民生银行、浦发银行、兴业银行、浙商银 行、华夏银行、招商银行、邮储银行。 据中国证券报记者统计，截至5月5日，今年以来险资已有13次举牌，其中6次为举牌银行股，包括平安 人寿举牌农业银行、邮储银行、招商银行（2次），瑞众保险举牌中信银行，新华保险举牌杭州银行。 华创证券金融业研究主管、首席分析师徐康认为，险资之所以青睐银行股，一方面，在长端利率下行背 景下，红利策略能够为险资带来稳定的股息现金流，一定程度上可以补偿利息现金流的收益下滑压力； 另一方面，在新会计准则下，红利标的更适用于FVOCI（以公允价值计量且其变动计入其他综 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking sector Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to benefit from expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on real estate, consumer promotion, and increased social security [3] - Key banks to watch include Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Changshu Bank under a pro-cyclical strategy, while Shanghai Bank, China Merchants Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Chongqing Bank are highlighted under a dividend strategy [3] Summary by Sections Credit Growth - As of March 2025, the total loan balance reached 269.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. The RMB loan balance was 265.41 trillion yuan, growing by 7.4% [1] - In March, Sichuan, Anhui, Shandong, and Jiangsu led in credit growth rates, all exceeding 10%, with growth rates of 11.6%, 10.2%, 10.2%, and 10.1% respectively [1] - For enterprise loans, Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Shandong had the highest growth rates at 14.3%, 14.1%, and 13.6% respectively [2] - In the residential loan segment, Shanghai and Shaanxi showed notable growth rates of 13.6% and 7.2% respectively [2] Market Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume in the stock market was 11,040.26 billion yuan, a decrease of 427.29 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending was 1.80 trillion yuan, down by 0.33% from the previous week [4] - The issuance of non-monetary funds totaled 21.998 billion, a decrease of 2.582 billion from the previous week [4] Interest Rate Market Tracking - The issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit was 249.34 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 718.44 billion yuan from the previous week [5] - The average interest rate for interbank certificates of deposit was 1.77%, unchanged from the previous week [8] Sector Performance - The banking sector is expected to show a positive trend due to policy catalysts, with a focus on cyclical stocks [3] - The report indicates that the banking sector's performance is closely tied to economic recovery, which may take time [3]

尽管上证指数成功站稳3200点这一关键关口，但近期两市成交总量却折射出市场情绪的相对谨慎和克制。在此背景下，不少投资者又开始关注具备偏防御 性的指数，其历史表现验证了在市场波动中既能有效控制组合回撤、又能捕捉结构性行情的双重优势。 红利类指数 自2021年以来，以高股息率、稳定分红见长的红利类指数持续获得资金青睐。市场上存在多种红利类指数，包括中证红利、红利低波、国企红利、消费红 利等差异化产品。其中，中证红利全收益指数作为国内最具代表性的红利策略指数，自2014年至今累计收益率达276.45%，显著跑赢同期沪深300全收益 指数108.54%的涨幅。 从年度表现来看，该指数展现出显著的"穿越牛熊"的能力。在2014年至2024年的11个完整年度里，中证红利全收益指数有8年上涨、3年下跌，正收益概率 达73%，相较沪深300指数55%的胜率更具稳定性。特别是2021年至2023年的市场调整期，当沪深300指数累计下跌29.72%，中证红利全收益指数逆市获得 25.22%的正收益，超额收益接近55个百分点。 更值得关注的是红利低波指数（全收益）的升级表现。通过在传统红利策略中引入低波动因子，该指数将年化收益率提 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - As of April 23, 2025, over one-third of companies have released their 2024 dividend plans, with more than half of the industries experiencing an increase in dividend rates, indicating a continued search for "new red horses" in dividend strategies [1][6]. - Among the primary industries, the household appliance manufacturing and transportation sectors have shown significant increases in dividend rates for 2024, with expected dividend yields exceeding 3.5% [6][17]. - In the detailed industry analysis, sectors such as small household appliances, express delivery, and building equipment have reported the highest increases in dividend rates [6][20]. Group 2: Dividend Performance Review - From April 16 to April 23, 2025, small-cap growth stocks led the market, while dividend stocks lagged behind, reflecting a phase of risk preference recovery after previous tariff disruptions [7][25]. - The performance of major broad-based indices increased during this period, with real estate, oil and gas, and packaging sectors performing well, while consumer goods and social services faced slight pressure [7][28]. Group 3: High-Frequency Data Tracking - The dividend index's yield compared to government bond yields is currently at a high level, suggesting a favorable cost-benefit ratio for dividend investments [8][39]. - As of April 22, 2025, the dividend index's yield is approximately two standard deviations above the mean compared to government bond yields, indicating a high value for dividend strategies [8][40]. Group 4: Strategic Outlook - The report emphasizes a shift from "old dividends" to "new red horses," focusing on long-term allocation value in dividend assets, particularly in sectors like banking and technology [9][36]. - New investment opportunities are emerging in sectors such as agricultural chemicals, rare earth materials, lithium batteries, and hospitality, which are nearing supply clearing points and showing characteristics of "red horses" [9][36].

2025 年 04 月 29 日 与传统风格相关性更低，A 股资产配置 新方向：大成中证全指自由现金流 ETF （159235）投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百四十七 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 方思齐 A0230123090003 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 (8621)23297818× fangsq@swsresearch.com 益 量 化 研 究 权 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共25页 简单金融 成就梦想 股 票 基 金 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 现金流 ETF 已经成为海外市场热门产品，国内产品申报火热。国内自由现金流产品目前 处于起步阶段，而海外现金流产品已经取得了丰硕的发展成果。其中规模领先的 COWZ 规模已超 200 亿美元。近期国内现金流 ETF 迎来集中申报浪潮， ...

Group 1 - The banking sector has shown positive performance, with the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) rising by 0.10% and several constituent stocks experiencing significant gains, such as Chongqing Bank (601963) up by 7.21% and Jiangsu Jinzu (600901) up by 5.57% [1] - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) has seen a growth in scale of 979.54 million yuan this month, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [1] - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on April 25, focusing on economic themes and indicating a continuation of policy support [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities noted that large banks are advancing their capital increase plans, and the mid-term dividend strategy is still in progress, indicating sustained long-term investment value in the banking sector [2] - The low interest rate environment continues to highlight the stability of bank earnings and dividends, with high dividend yield banks showing absolute returns [2] - The positive economic trend remains unchanged, with monetary and fiscal policies being firmly implemented since October 2024, which is expected to stabilize bank asset quality and support credit growth [2] Group 3 - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index accounted for 15.22% of the index, with companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937) among the top [3] - The performance of individual stocks within the index varies, with some stocks like Nanjing Steel (600282) showing a gain of 2.07%, while others like Hengyuan Coal Power (600971) saw a decline of 2.64% [5]