市场普遍预计，美国 12 月新增非农就业岗位规模约为 6 万个，失业率或由 4.6% 小幅回落至 4.5%。该 数据被视为衡量美国劳动力市场韧性的关键窗口，也将为美联储后续政策节奏提供新的参考依据。目前 利率市场仍认为年内存在进一步降息空间，但节奏与时点高度依赖后续数据表现。在非农结果明朗之 前，资产定价整体偏向防御思路，区间交易特征较为明显。 除宏观数据外，地缘政治局势依然是影响市场风险偏好的重要背景因素。围绕能源、贸易以及地区安全 的多重摩擦，使避险需求在结构层面持续存在。尽管相关不确定性尚未在短期内引发剧烈波动，但对黄 金等避险资产形成中长期托底，对市场情绪构成支撑。 UNforex 1 月 9 日讯（分析师 Simon）在关键宏观数据发布窗口临近之际，全球市场整体进入降速运行 状态。美元维持本周以来的强势格局，主要资产价格更多围绕既有区间整理，黄金则在高位震荡中暂未 给出明确方向信号。随着美国 12 月非农就业报告即将公布，市场对美联储政策路径的重新定价明显升 温，观望情绪同步抬升。 周五欧洲时段开盘前，黄金价格围绕 4470 美元上方运行，盘中短暂回落后迅速获得买盘承接，整体仍 处于近期形成的震荡区 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market is maintaining a cautious stance ahead of key macroeconomic data releases, with the dollar strengthening and asset prices fluctuating within critical ranges [1][2] - Gold prices are oscillating around the $4470 mark, showing resilience despite a lack of effective breakthroughs, supported by a loose Federal Reserve policy and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] - The market is generally reducing directional trading intentions before the non-farm payroll data release, with the dollar's performance being a key limiting factor for gold's upward movement [1][2] Group 2 - The dollar remains relatively strong ahead of the non-farm payroll report, bolstered by better-than-expected U.S. trade data and initial jobless claims, leading to increased demand for the dollar [2] - The market anticipates approximately 60,000 new jobs in the December non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate expected to slightly decrease from 4.6% to 4.5%, which will be crucial for assessing the resilience of the U.S. labor market [2] - Geopolitical tensions surrounding energy, trade, and regional security continue to influence risk appetite, providing structural support for safe-haven assets like gold [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is expected to show moderate growth in December, which may instill some confidence in investors for the new year, but it is not enough to cause excessive market excitement [1] Employment Data Expectations - The consensus forecast predicts an addition of 60,000 non-farm jobs in December, with the unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 4.5%. However, the range for job additions is between 25,000 and 155,000, indicating uncertainty in hiring conditions [1][3] - If the forecast is accurate, the job addition will be a slight increase compared to the average monthly increase of 55,000 jobs in the first 11 months of 2025 and slightly higher than the preliminary figure of 64,000 jobs in November [1] Market Impact - The non-farm employment report is crucial for traders as it significantly influences Federal Reserve policy expectations, potentially leading to substantial fluctuations in stock, bond, currency, and precious metal markets [1] - A weak non-farm employment report would reinforce market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, likely leading to a weaker dollar and a potential initial rebound in U.S. stocks, followed by concerns about economic growth dominating the market [1][2] Job Market Indicators - The November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a significant decline in job openings, which is a leading indicator of future hiring intentions. This decline suggests a decrease in employer confidence and may foreshadow weaker non-farm job growth [4][5] - The ongoing decline in the labor resignation rate indicates that workers are less confident in external job opportunities, further signaling a cooling labor market [5] Data Revision Importance - Experienced traders recognize that revisions to previous months' employment data can significantly alter market perceptions of labor market strength. A substantial downward revision of October and November's job data could reveal a more severe employment situation than the December figures suggest [7] - Historical trends show that conflicting signals between initial and revised non-farm data often lead to significant market volatility [7] Future Employment Market Outlook - Economists generally expect the U.S. labor market to remain stable in 2026, with some positive signals in hiring activity and a slowdown in layoffs. The labor market is anticipated to maintain a moderate state without extreme fluctuations [8] - The growth in job positions has primarily been concentrated in sectors benefiting from expansionary fiscal policies, particularly healthcare and government [9] - A notable trend for 2026 will be employers' focus on retaining existing employees rather than aggressive hiring or layoffs, with increased investments in employee skill enhancement and retraining [9]

Core Viewpoint - Song Yu has officially joined UBS Securities as an analyst, bringing extensive experience in macroeconomic analysis and policy evaluation, particularly regarding China's economic trends and investment strategies [1][4][6]. Group 1: Company Changes - On January 5, 2026, the securities industry system indicated that Song Yu has officially transitioned to UBS Securities [1][4]. - Previously, Song Yu held significant positions as the Chief Economist for Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities and BlackRock's Chief China Economist [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - As the Chief China Economist at BlackRock, Song Yu expressed a positive outlook on the Chinese economy, highlighting its strong resilience and the potential for the stock market to stabilize and recover [3][6]. - He believes there is currently an opportunity for value investment in Chinese assets, indicating a bottom-overweight situation [3][6]. - Song Yu is also monitoring the impact of U.S. Federal Reserve policies on the Chinese economy, predicting that the new chairperson, expected to be appointed in 2026, may influence decision-making [3][6].

贵金属2026年报 ——贵金属仍处上行通道， 拐点关注美联储政策变化与美国经济改善 汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 中航期货 2025-12-31 02 宏观面 目录 01 后市研判 03 基本面 后市PA研RT判01 Ø 2025年贵金属市场表现亮眼，黄金和白银均呈现加速上涨格局，不断突破历史新高。年内国际金价从2600美元/盎司上涨至最高4550美元/盎司 以上，涨幅70%以上；国际银价从29美元/盎司上涨至最高82美元/盎司上方，涨幅高达180%以上。2025年贵金属价格上涨的逻辑不断切换，从 上半年市场交易对等关税及美国经济衰退担忧带来的避险需求，到下半年交易降息预期带来的流动性宽松预期，叠加白银实物供需紧缺驱动 资金流入贵金属市场，价格加速上行，波动显著放大。在金价上涨的过程中，白银涨幅遥遥领先，实现了金银比的修复回归。 Ø 展望2026年，当前支撑贵金属价格上涨的逻辑并没有发生改变，贵金属仍处上行通道。美国财政货币双宽松的背景下，美元信用持续受损， 去美元化加速资产储备的多元化，全球央行延续购金将继续支撑金价，重点关注中国央行购金行为；而流动性宽松仍将是2026年 ...

Group 1 - The unexpected resilience of the U.S. economy is overshadowing geopolitical turmoil caused by President Donald Trump, leading to increased short positions on the dollar as traders anticipate a decline due to potential Fed rate cuts [1] - Despite concerns over Trump's actions, including threats to Venezuela and other nations, the dollar has strengthened, indicating that forex traders are largely ignoring these geopolitical risks [1] - Recent employment data has not shown the anticipated slowdown, raising questions about the extent of potential Fed rate cuts this year [1] Group 2 - Speculation exists that Trump's actions could jeopardize the dollar's status as the world's primary currency, leading to potential sell-offs of U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly during market turbulence in April [2] - After experiencing one of the most significant declines since the early 1970s, the dollar stabilized in the latter half of 2025 as Trump rolled back some tariffs and the economy progressed steadily [2] - Wall Street analysts predict a long-term downward trend for the dollar as the Fed gradually lowers interest rates, with a notable increase of approximately $21 billion in speculative short positions on the dollar in January, the largest since March 2020 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For gold, as funds quickly exit the market before the Spring Festival and the price correction is in place, the market may focus on the impact of US economic data such as non - farm payrolls on the Fed's policy and geopolitical disturbances. Gold long positions above $4300 should be held, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For silver, long - position funds have significantly increased holdings through ETFs and physical delivery, driving the price to run strongly. The global inventory shortage may not be truly alleviated, but high prices may suppress industrial demand. After exchanges like CME raise margins, the irrational upward movement driven by short - term capital sentiment is expected to end, leading to volatility reduction. Attention should be paid to the potential回调 risk caused by the rebalancing of the global commodity index, and in high - volatility markets, a light - position, low - buying strategy above $70 is recommended [1]. - For platinum and palladium, due to strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and relatively undervalued prices compared to gold, funds are driving value re - evaluation. They are expected to continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, as market speculative sentiment weakens and volatility narrows, and with a strong external market, platinum and palladium can be bought lightly at around the 20 - day moving average. Palladium is relatively stronger, and shorting the platinum - palladium ratio can be attempted [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 997.94 yuan/g on January 8, down 0.96 yuan or 0.10% from January 7 [1]. - AG2604 contract closed at 18,450 yuan/kg on January 8, down 840 yuan or 4.35% from January 7 [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 575.00 yuan/g on January 8, down 23.50 yuan or 3.93% from January 7 [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 460.70 yuan/g on January 8, down 15.25 yuan or 3.20% from January 7 [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at $4487.90 on January 8, up $20.80 or 0.47% from January 7 [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at $76.69 on January 8, down $1.29 or - 1.65% from January 7 [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at $2282.60 on January 8, down $7.80 or - 0.34% from January 7 [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at $1833.50 on January 8, up $16.50 or 0.91% from January 7 [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at $4477.56 on January 8, up $21.49 or 0.48% from January 7 [1]. - London silver was at $76.97 on January 8, down $1.30 or - 1.66% from January 7 [1]. - Platinum spot was at $2267.45 on January 8, down $30.55 or - 1.33% from January 7 [1]. - Palladium spot was at $1780.26 on January 8, up $24.53 or 1.40% from January 7 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 995.86 yuan/g on January 8, down 3.34 yuan or - 0.33% from January 7 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 18,338 yuan/10g on January 8, down 1027 yuan or - 5.30% from January 7 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold 9995 was at 580 yuan/g on January 8, down 26 yuan or - 4.26% from January 7 [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 2.08, down 2.38 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 69.00% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 112, down 187 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 0.00% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 10.34, up 0.69 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 73.40% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.28, down 0.01 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 90.70% [1]. Price Ratios - The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 58.52, up 1.23 or 2.16% from the previous value [1]. - The SHFE gold/silver ratio was 54.09, up 2.31 or 4.45% from the previous value [1]. - The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.24, down 0.02 or - 1.24% from the previous value [1]. - The GZFE platinum/palladium ratio was 1.25, down 0.01 or - 0.75% from the previous value [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, up 0.04 percentage points or 1.0% from the previous value [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.49%, up 0.02 percentage points or 0.6% from the previous value [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.92%, up 0.04 percentage points or 2.1% from the previous value [1]. - The US dollar index was 98.86, up 0.12 or 0.12% from the previous value [1]. - The on - shore RMB exchange rate was 6.9823, down 0.0112 or - 0.16% from the previous value [1]. Inventory and Positions - The SHFE gold inventory was 97,653, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The SHFE silver inventory was 637,647 kg on January 8, up 84,218 kg or 15.22% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36,387,376, down 16,076 or - 0.04% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 442,479,414, down 3,257,982 or - 0.73% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19,345,676, up 16,280 or 0.08% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 127,180,871, down 5,093 or 0.00% from the previous value [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1,067, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16,215, up 115.60 or 0.72% from the previous value [1].

Core Insights - The market is experiencing a pause for adjustment after a strong start in 2026, with participants hesitant to take on new risks ahead of the U.S. employment report release [1] Group 1 - Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Markets, highlights the ongoing debate regarding Federal Reserve policies, which continues to influence market sentiment [1] - Ongoing regional security events are contributing to a cautious market positioning among investors [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report [1] 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: With the rapid exit of pre - holiday funds, the gold market has adjusted. In January, precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility due to uncertainties such as US economic data's impact on Fed policy and South American geopolitical situations. Gold long positions above $4300 should be held [1] - Silver: Long - position funds have increased holdings through ETFs and physical delivery, driving the price up. Global inventory shortages may not be truly resolved, but high prices may suppress industrial demand. After the CME and other exchanges raise margins, the "irrational" upward trend driven by short - term funds is expected to end. In high - volatility markets, a light - position and low - buying strategy above $70 is recommended [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Due to strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and undervalued prices relative to gold, funds are driving value re - evaluation. They are expected to continue their upward trend in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, with reduced speculative sentiment and narrowing fluctuations, it is advisable to buy on dips near the 20 - day moving average [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - On January 7, 2026, the AU2602 gold contract closed at 998.90 yuan/gram, down 0.60% from the previous day; the AG2604 silver contract closed at 19290 yuan/kilogram, down 0.83%; the PT2606 platinum contract closed at 598.50 yuan/gram, down 2.97%; the PD2606 palladium contract closed at 475.95 yuan/gram, up 0.86% [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - On January 7, 2026, the COMEX gold main contract closed at $4467.10, down 0.86%; the COMEX silver main contract closed at $77.98, down 3.99%; the NYMEX platinum main contract closed at $2290.40 per ounce, down 6.74%; the NYMEX palladium main contract closed at $1817.00, down 3.96% [1] Spot Prices - On January 7, 2026, the London gold price was $4456.07, down 0.87%; the London silver price was $78.28, down 3.56%; the spot platinum price was $2297.55 per ounce, down 2.73%; the spot palladium price was $1755.73, down 0.97%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was 999.20 yuan/gram, down 0.27%; the silver T + D was 19365 yuan/kilogram, down 0.67%; the platinum 9995 was 606 yuan/gram, up 5.56% [1] Basis - As of January 7, 2026, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was 0.30, up 3.36 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 95.10%; the basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was 75, up 32, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 98.30%; the basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 11.03, down 0.47, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 68.60%; the basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.30, up 0.35, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 91.50% [1] Price Ratios - On January 7, 2026, the COMEX gold/silver ratio was 57.29, up 3.26% from the previous day; the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 51.78, up 0.23%. The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.26, down 2.89%; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.26, down 3.79% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - On January 7, 2026, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15%, down 0.7% from the previous day; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, unchanged. The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.88%, down 1.6%. The US dollar index was 98.74, up 0.14%; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9935, up 0.18% [1] Inventory and Positions - As of January 7, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 97,653, down 0.05%; the silver inventory was 553,429 kilograms, down 4.82%. The COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 36,403,452; the silver inventory was 445,737,395, down 0.77%. The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 19,329,396; the silver registered warehouse receipts were 127,185,964, up 0.38%. The SPDR Gold ETF position remained at 1067; the SLV Silver ETF position was 16,100, down 0.11% [1]

Group 1: Core Insights on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is experiencing significant market attention, with a recent drop to 4.01%, and a notable increase in options trading volume betting on a further decline below 4% [1][3][5] - The yield's recent movements reflect a shift from an upward trend to a steady decline, influenced by economic data and geopolitical events [3][4] - The trading volume for the 10-year Treasury on January 8 reached $280 billion, with a notable increase in overseas investor participation, indicating rising demand for U.S. Treasuries [4][6] Group 2: Options Market Analysis - The options market shows a strong bet on the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4%, with significant trading volumes in call options [5][6] - The implied volatility of these options has risen to 12%, indicating increased market expectations for short-term yield fluctuations [6] - The probability of the yield falling below 4% by January 25 has increased to 65%, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and rising unemployment rates [6][12] Group 3: Yield Curve and Economic Outlook - The yield curve, specifically the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, has narrowed, suggesting reduced recession fears [7][8] - This narrowing is attributed to expectations of future Fed rate cuts and stronger-than-expected GDP growth, which has slightly improved long-term economic growth forecasts [8][12] - The recent movements in the yield curve indicate a market reassessment of recession risks, potentially impacting Treasury trading strategies [7][8] Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve's policy outlook is a critical factor influencing the 10-year Treasury yield, with recent comments from officials suggesting a cautious approach to future rate changes [9][10] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have shifted, with a 50% probability of one cut and a 30% probability of two cuts, reflecting a cooling of previous expectations [11][12] - Divergence in Fed officials' views on policy direction has led to cautious trading behavior in the Treasury market, resulting in narrower yield fluctuations [13] Group 5: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of 10-year Treasuries is decreasing, with a planned issuance of $60 billion in January, down from $70 billion in December, alleviating supply pressure [16][17] - Demand for Treasuries is increasing, particularly from overseas investors, with significant increases in holdings from China and Japan [16][17] - The improved supply-demand dynamics are contributing to the downward pressure on yields, even amid policy uncertainties [16][17] Group 6: Asset Correlation Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield has shown a strong positive correlation with the U.S. dollar index, reflecting how interest rate expectations influence both markets [19] - Recent trends indicate that both the stock market and Treasury yields are moving in the same direction, driven by optimistic economic forecasts [18] - This correlation may shift if economic data diverges, potentially restoring the traditional inverse relationship between stocks and Treasuries [18]