Group 1 - The core outcome of the recent US-China-Sweden trade talks is the agreement to extend the suspension of tariffs, while other significant issues remain unresolved due to clear divergences [1] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the decision to extend the tariff suspension lies with President Trump, and further discussions on China's rare earth resource circulation may occur within the next 90 days [1][3] - Trump's response to the talks suggests an openness to extending the agreement, reflecting a desire to avoid escalating the trade war in the short term [3] Group 2 - China's firm stance during the negotiations has led to a relatively mild response from the US, indicating China's unique leverage in this geopolitical game compared to the EU and Japan [4] - The EU officials were surprised by China's uncompromising position, which countered their expectations of potential concessions, highlighting China's strong resistance to US manufacturing revival efforts [6] - The US manufacturing sector is facing significant challenges due to China's dominance in rare earth materials, with no viable alternatives available to mitigate this pressure [6]

美国将在8月1日恢复征收所谓"对等关税"，当前特朗普政府仍在与多个经济体进行最后时刻的谈判。 据央视新闻，当地时间7月30日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已与韩国达成"全面完整"的贸易协议。美国 将对韩国征收15%的关税。韩国将对美全面开放贸易，接受包括汽车、卡车和农产品在内的美国产品。 目前，美国仅与英国、越南、菲律宾、印度尼西亚、日本、欧盟和韩国等经济体达成初步协议。 最初宣布暂停时，特朗普政府曾设定了"90天内达成90份协议"的目标，但这一预期未能实现。目前，美 国仅与英国、越南、菲律宾、印度尼西亚、日本、欧盟和韩国等经济体达成初步协议，且多数协议的细 节仍待敲定。 具体来说，5月，英国成为首个与美国达成贸易协议的国家。该协议设定了10%的基础关税，并针对汽 车、航空航天等关键行业制定了配额与豁免机制，但钢铝关税削减等核心问题至今仍未明确。7月2日， 美越协议宣布将越南输美商品的关税从46%降至20%，同时越南承诺"完全开放市场"，但具体条款仍未披 露。随后，美国与印度尼西亚于7月15日达成协议，将印尼关税从32%下调至19%，作为交换，印尼同意 取消99%以上美国商品的关税壁垒。7月22日，美菲协议将菲律 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the precious metals market in August 2025, analyzing the market from aspects of market review, macro - factors, fundamental factors, and provides future outlook and strategy recommendations. It points out that precious metal prices are in high - level oscillations due to the encounter of weak expectations and strong reality [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The report presents the disk trends of London gold, London silver, Shanghai gold, and Shanghai silver, but no specific review and outlook content is provided [12][13] 3.2 Macro - factors - **Trade Negotiations**: In July 2025, there were a series of trade negotiation events. Trump announced multiple tariff policies, including plans to impose tariffs on various countries and products such as imports of copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. There were also trade agreements reached between the US and countries like Indonesia, Japan, and the EU. China and the US will continue to promote the extension of relevant tariffs and maintain communication on economic and trade issues [19] - **Market Sentiment and Risk Preference**: Market panic has fallen to a low level, and the three major US stock indexes have rebounded, indicating a continuous recovery of market risk preference [20] - **Employment and Unemployment**: The number of new non - farm jobs in the US and the unemployment rate are presented. The unemployment rate has unexpectedly decreased [26] - **Inflation**: The US CPI has shown a mild rebound, and small categories of goods and services are the main drivers of inflation [32] - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of different interest rate ranges in each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026, reflecting market expectations for interest rate changes [31] 3.3 Fundamental Factors - **Gold Supply and Demand**: From 2014 - 2025 (forecast), gold supply mainly comes from gold mine production and recycling. Total supply is expected to increase by 3.4% in 2025 compared to 2024. Demand includes gold jewelry manufacturing, consumption, technology, investment, etc. Investment demand is expected to increase by 21.2% in 2025. The overall supply - demand balance shows a certain change trend, and the LBMA gold price has also fluctuated [39] - **Silver - related Data**: Data on China's silver production, exports, inventories (LBMA, COMEX, SHFE, SGE), and silver - related consumption in the photovoltaic industry (world and China's photovoltaic installation and production forecasts, silver paste consumption in TOPCon batteries, and silver powder production) are presented [46][50][59] - **Investment and Position Data**: Data on gold and silver ETFs and CFTC positions are provided, reflecting market investment trends [48][64] 3.4 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - No specific content on future outlook and strategy recommendations is provided in the given text

Core Viewpoint - South Korea is currently engaged in separate discussions with the United States regarding foreign exchange issues, indicating a focused approach to currency matters outside of broader trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The South Korean Ministry of Finance is actively involved in discussions with the U.S. on foreign exchange topics [1] - There has been no direct discussion of exchange rates during the ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. [1]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 31 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 策略参考 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：本周中美代表团第三次谈判的核心决定，就是将世界两大经济体之间的关税休战期延长三个月， 关税保持不变。美豆出口需求难有改善，美豆期价继续震荡运行。在中美谈判结果不及预期的背景下，国 内油厂远期买船心态仍将保持谨慎，大量的买船缺口难以快速填补，继续支撑豆类期价内强外弱。短期豆 粕期价或维持震荡偏强运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内 ...

加拿大总理卡尼：我们可能无法在8月1日前结束与美国的贸易谈判。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：目前是贸易谈判非常活跃的时期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and India have officially broken down, leading to President Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1, citing India's high tariffs and non-tariff barriers as significant issues [1][5]. Trade Relations - The US-India trade deficit is highlighted, with Trump stating that the trade imbalance is substantial, and India's tariffs are among the highest globally [1][5]. - The US is India's largest trading partner, with projected goods trade of approximately $128.8 billion in 2024, and India having a trade surplus of $45.8 billion with the US [6]. Tariff Implications - The 25% tariff on India is notably higher than tariffs imposed on other countries, such as 20% on Vietnam and 15% on Japan and the EU, placing India at a competitive disadvantage [6]. - The imposition of tariffs has led to a depreciation of the Indian Rupee, which fell to a five-month low against the dollar [2]. Geopolitical Factors - A significant reason for the tariff imposition is India's continued purchase of energy and military equipment from Russia, with over one-third of India's oil imports and 36% of its weapons coming from Russia [7]. - Trump's previous threats included imposing secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil unless a ceasefire agreement was reached in Ukraine [7]. Agricultural Negotiations - Trade negotiations have stalled primarily due to disagreements in the agricultural sector, where the US seeks greater access while India prioritizes food security and the interests of small farmers [8]. - Despite some concessions from India on tariffs for specific products, the overall trade deficit remains a concern for the US, which aims to reduce the $45.8 billion deficit with India [8].

（文章来源：金十数据） 美国财长贝森特：如果没有达成协议，可以在8月1日之后继续进行贸易谈判。 ...

美国财长贝森特：如果没有达成协议，可以在8月1日之后继续进行贸易谈判。 ...