美国方面表示"这是非常富有建设性的两天"、"我们能够如此迅速地达成协议，这反映出分歧可能并没有想象的那 么大"。 点评： 1、中美发布联合声明，这在外交上是一个很正面且很强的信号。 此前，市场预期普遍为会有新闻发布，但是不会有联合声明，市场上也存在不少"谈崩"的悲观预期。 鉴于有联合声明（在外交中属于级别较高文件）再加上双方的积极表态，我们认为结果是【大超预期】的。 2、这个结果表明美国在关税方面一定已对我方做出了初步让步。 中美经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识；即将发布【联合声明】，超出市场预期！ 事件：新华社报道，5月10日至11日，中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈。 会谈氛围是坦诚的、深入的、具有建设性的，取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识。 双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制，就各自关切的经贸问题开展进一步的磋商。 中美双方将尽快敲定有关的细节，并且将于5月12日发布会谈 中美经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识；即将发布【联合声明】，超出市场预期！ 事件：新华社报道，5月10日至11日，中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈。 会谈氛围是坦诚的、深入的、具有建设性的，取得了实质性进 ...

Group 1 - The high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US have reached important consensus and made substantial progress, with both sides agreeing to establish a China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism [1] - From January to April, the national railway completed fixed asset investment of 194.7 billion yuan [1] - This year, China plans to newly construct and renovate 100,000 kilometers of rural roads [1] Group 2 - China successfully launched the Remote Sensing Satellite No. 40 Group 02 [3] - The first set of intelligent inspection robots for freight railways has been put into use [3] - The Guangdong province has ended the Level IV flood emergency response [3] Group 3 - The Chongqing Three Gorges University has announced the procurement results for firewall and DNS equipment, with a winning bid amounting to 850,000 yuan [4] - The procurement was conducted through competitive negotiation [4] Group 4 - The ninth International Rose Conference has opened in Beijing, showcasing over a thousand varieties of roses [10]

中信证券研报认为，近期，人民币汇率的快速拉升或与美元指数偏弱运行、消息面驱动市场对于中美谈 判预期的升温等有关。后续来看，人民币汇率的扰动和支撑因素相对均衡，人民币汇率短期或围绕新中 枢双向波动，央行汇率政策更多侧重于纠偏单边预期。其中，压力主要来自美国对华加征关税对我国出 口基本面的冲击逐步凸显，并导致经常账户顺差有所收窄以及直接投资和证券投资账户的波动，但对于 人民币汇率更为重要的是国内对冲政策的力度和中美经贸磋商的进度。支撑因素中，一是美国经济数据 持续走弱预期下，美元指数或偏弱运行，人民币汇率的被动贬值压力有所缓和；二是全球投资者对于非 美货币以及非美资产的需求边际抬升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by external factors, including a weak US dollar index and heightened market expectations for US-China trade negotiations [1][2][4]. Group 1: External Factors Influencing RMB Exchange Rate - The US "reciprocal tariff" policy has raised concerns about the US economic fundamentals and inflation, leading to a decline in trust among foreign investors in dollar-denominated assets, resulting in a 4.37% drop in the dollar index in April [2]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar against the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar triggering a strong exchange guarantee reflect an initial increase in demand for non-USD currencies and assets [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's evaluation of the possibility of restarting trade negotiations with the US has contributed to the rise in expectations for US-China talks, supporting the offshore RMB exchange rate [2]. Group 2: Domestic Factors and Policy Implications - The pressure on the RMB exchange rate is expected to increase due to the gradual impact of US tariffs on China's export fundamentals, leading to a narrowing of the current account surplus [3][4]. - Domestic policies and the basic economic situation are expected to play a stabilizing role for the exchange rate, with a relatively restrained use of exchange rate stabilization tools in April [2][3]. - The potential for a temporary appreciation of the RMB may trigger some demand for currency settlement, which could further increase volatility in the RMB exchange rate [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The balance of pressure and support factors for the RMB exchange rate appears relatively even, with expectations of short-term fluctuations around a new equilibrium [1][4]. - The weakening of the US economy is expected to continue, which may lead to a sustained weak dollar index, alleviating some depreciation pressure on the RMB [5]. - The demand for non-USD currencies and assets is expected to increase marginally, providing additional support for the RMB [5].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB against the US dollar surged nearly 900 points over two trading days, driven by four main factors [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The travel data during the May Day holiday reached a historical high, potentially injecting more economic growth momentum [1] - The A50 index also performed well, rising over 1.5% in the last two trading days [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Positive signals emerged from Sino-US trade negotiations during the May Day holiday, contributing to the rise in RMB assets [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted that the US has expressed willingness to negotiate on tariff issues, indicating a potential thaw in trade tensions [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - There is a possibility that risk-averse funds are reallocating towards RMB assets [1] - The backdrop of a declining US dollar index may be leading to a gradual release of settlement funds [1]