经济日报：充分发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用 金十数据5月15日讯，文章称，此次联合声明的达成为中美后续沟通与谈判奠定了基础，但诸多细节问 题仍有待进一步磋商。应当看到，中美之间结构性矛盾和深层次分歧依然存在，解决这些问题不可能一 蹴而就。 对于今后一段时间的中美经贸关系走向，应保持理性预期。双方需要维护好当前的对话势 头，在平等协商中管控分歧、积累共识、强化信任。当前，无论从最优化配置资源要素、更好适应创新 技术持续涌现带来的发展模式转变，还是从创造稳定的全球发展环境看，都需要中美协同发展。一方 面，要充分发挥中美经贸磋商机制的作用，就双方关切的问题进行持续、深入的沟通，及时化解可能出 现的矛盾和分歧；另一方面，要积极推动双边贸易和投资自由化便利化，进一步扩大市场开放，为两国 企业创造更加公平、透明、可预期的营商环境。聚焦共同利益，中美合作的清单能够拉得更长，合作的 蛋糕可以做得更大。 ...

同时，中美双方建立经贸磋商机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。这一系列实质性进展，迈出了通过平等 对话协商解决分歧的重要一步，将中美经贸拉回到正常轨道。 中美日内瓦会谈取得实质性进展，反映出双方都有管控分歧、寻求共识的动机，以保护两国经贸关系不 偏航。这源于中美经贸关系的互利共赢本质，也揭示了中美两国"合则两利，斗则俱伤"的客观现实。 中美用对话协商开启了愈合分歧的合作之旅。 12日中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，美方承诺取消根据4月8日第14259号行政令和4月 9日第14266号行政令对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，修改4月2日第14257号行政令对中国商品加征 的34%的对等关税，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税；相应地，中方取消对美国商 品加征的共计91%的反制关税，针对美对等关税的34%反制关税，相应暂停其中24%的关税90天，剩余 10%的关税予以保留。中方还相应暂停或取消对美国的非关税反制措施。 贸易战关税战没有赢家，尤其是过去一个月发生在世界第一、二大经济体之间，对双方乃至全球经济的 破坏力显而易见，双方分别高达125%和145%的关税，几乎给中美经贸按下了暂停键， ...

此外，多家研究机构和媒体也做了相关测算，本届美国政府累计对华新增关税税率将降至30%，中国方 面也将对美新增关税税率从125%下降到了10%。 中美双方是否会就关税等问题作进一步磋商？商务部新闻发言人表示，双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商 机制，就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通，开展进一步磋商。中方代表是国务院副总理何立峰，美方代 表是财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔。双方将定期或不定期轮流在中国、美国开展磋商，或在商定的 第三国开展磋商。根据需要，双方可就相关经贸议题开展工作层面磋商。 （文章来源：南方都市报） 南都讯记者杨文君发自北京 北京时间5月12日下午3时，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》正式公布， 中美双方承诺于5月14日前采取举措，同步调整关税税率。 根据联合声明，美方承诺取消根据2025年4月8日第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对中 国商品加征的共计91%的关税，修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令对中国商品加征的34%的对等关 税，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。相应地，中方取消对美国商品加征的共计 91%的反制关税；针对美对等关税的34%反制关 ...

1.会谈氛围是坦诚的、深入的、具有建设性的，取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识。之所以达成了实 质性进展，有两个因素。一是，中方为维护自己利益进行坚决反制，导致双方在很短时间就把关税拉到 了禁止性关税水平。二是，美方错估了当前的形势，高估了自己的能力，所以在关税达到很高水平时， 美方磋商的主动性、急迫性，以及解决问题的导向性都非常强。 当地时间5月10日至11日，中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈，会谈达成了一系列重要共识。当 地时间5月12日，中美发表日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明。 据了解，这次会谈有3个核心信息值得注意： 2.中美双方一致同意建立经贸磋商机制，就双方在经贸领域的各自关切保持沟通。谭主了解到，中美经 贸各自的牵头人会共同领导这一机制，双方经贸团队将就中美经贸中的问题进行定期和不定期的沟通， 未来沟通的时间地点都将由双方进一步商定。 当然，能取得实质性进展，和中方的行动密切相关。美国滥征所谓"对等"关税后，中国是第一个反制所 谓"对等"关税的国家。这样的结果来之不易，有利于中美双方，有利于全球经济。这样的结果，也需要 中美双方共同守护。（玉渊谭天） 3. 中美双方将尽快敲定相关细节，并将于当地时间5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to show a volatile trend. Last week, the industrial data was below expectations, with a significant weakening in steel demand. The output of rebar declined, and the apparent demand decreased substantially, leading to an increase in inventory. The output of hot-rolled coils remained stable, but the apparent demand also declined, resulting in a corresponding increase in inventory. The real estate downturn and seasonal patterns contributed to the decline in the apparent demand for building materials, and hot-rolled coils faced pressure on exports due to overseas anti-dumping measures. On the macro front, the high-level Sino-US economic and trade negotiations achieved substantial progress [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3022 yuan/ton, a decline of 74 yuan, and a drop of 2.39%. The total trading volume was 8,123,194 lots, and the total open interest was 2,893,444 lots [2]. - SHFE hot-rolled coils had a closing price of 3157 yuan/ton, a decline of 47 yuan, and a drop of 1.47%. The total trading volume was 2,485,168 lots, and the total open interest was 1,395,031 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 696.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.5 yuan, and a drop of 1.07%. The total trading volume was 1,895,858 lots, and the total open interest was 699,233 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 877.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 53.0 yuan, and a drop of 5.70%. The total trading volume was 1,356,112 lots, and the total open interest was 418,835 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1446.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 91.5 yuan, and a drop of 5.95%. The total trading volume was 98,662 lots, and the total open interest was 50,876 lots [2]. Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated downward. The fundamental situation weakened, leading to a decline in steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2910 (-50) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3170 (-50) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot-rolled coils were at 3220 (-40) yuan/ton [4]. Macro Situation - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced the introduction of ten policy measures, including a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points, a reduction of the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, a decrease in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage points, and the establishment of a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and elderly care re-loan" [1][5][10]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, including accelerating the introduction of a financing system suitable for the new model of real estate development and re-approving a 60 billion yuan long-term investment pilot for insurance funds [5][10]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will fully support China Central Huijin to play the role of a quasi-"stabilization fund" and introduce policy measures to deepen the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5][10]. - The high-level Sino-US economic and trade talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, from May 10 to 11. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism and will finalize relevant details as soon as possible and issue a joint statement on May 12 [1][5][10]. Industry Situation - Last week, the rebar output was 2.24 million tons, a decrease of 10 tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand was 2.14 million tons, a decrease of 780,000 tons. The rebar inventory at mills was 1.88 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons, and the social inventory was 4.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons. The total inventory was 6.54 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons [1][6]. - The hot-rolled coil output was 3.2 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. The inventory at mills was 850,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, and the social inventory was 2.8 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons. The total inventory was 3.65 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons. The apparent demand was 3.1 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons [1][6]. Industry News - The high-level Sino-US economic and trade talks from May 10 to 11 in Geneva were candid, in-depth, and constructive, reaching important consensus and achieving substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism [10]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the Sino-US economic and trade dialogue and consultation, stating that China has noticed the US high-level's multiple statements expressing willingness to negotiate on tariff issues with China. The US has also actively conveyed information to China through relevant channels, and China is evaluating the situation [10]. - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations, including measures from the central bank, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [10]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts on the futures and monthly spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the regional price differences of rebar and hot-rolled coil spot, the smelting profits of long-process steel mills, the profits of short-process electric furnaces in East China, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the output of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the social and mill inventories of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the total inventories of rebar and hot-rolled coils, and the apparent consumption of rebar and hot-rolled coils [9][11][13]

美国方面表示"这是非常富有建设性的两天"、"我们能够如此迅速地达成协议，这反映出分歧可能并没有想象的那 么大"。 点评： 1、中美发布联合声明，这在外交上是一个很正面且很强的信号。 此前，市场预期普遍为会有新闻发布，但是不会有联合声明，市场上也存在不少"谈崩"的悲观预期。 鉴于有联合声明（在外交中属于级别较高文件）再加上双方的积极表态，我们认为结果是【大超预期】的。 2、这个结果表明美国在关税方面一定已对我方做出了初步让步。 中美经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识；即将发布【联合声明】，超出市场预期！ 事件：新华社报道，5月10日至11日，中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈。 会谈氛围是坦诚的、深入的、具有建设性的，取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识。 双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制，就各自关切的经贸问题开展进一步的磋商。 中美双方将尽快敲定有关的细节，并且将于5月12日发布会谈 中美经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识；即将发布【联合声明】，超出市场预期！ 事件：新华社报道，5月10日至11日，中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈。 会谈氛围是坦诚的、深入的、具有建设性的，取得了实质性进 ...

Group 1 - The high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US have reached important consensus and made substantial progress, with both sides agreeing to establish a China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism [1] - From January to April, the national railway completed fixed asset investment of 194.7 billion yuan [1] - This year, China plans to newly construct and renovate 100,000 kilometers of rural roads [1] Group 2 - China successfully launched the Remote Sensing Satellite No. 40 Group 02 [3] - The first set of intelligent inspection robots for freight railways has been put into use [3] - The Guangdong province has ended the Level IV flood emergency response [3] Group 3 - The Chongqing Three Gorges University has announced the procurement results for firewall and DNS equipment, with a winning bid amounting to 850,000 yuan [4] - The procurement was conducted through competitive negotiation [4] Group 4 - The ninth International Rose Conference has opened in Beijing, showcasing over a thousand varieties of roses [10]

中信证券研报认为，近期，人民币汇率的快速拉升或与美元指数偏弱运行、消息面驱动市场对于中美谈 判预期的升温等有关。后续来看，人民币汇率的扰动和支撑因素相对均衡，人民币汇率短期或围绕新中 枢双向波动，央行汇率政策更多侧重于纠偏单边预期。其中，压力主要来自美国对华加征关税对我国出 口基本面的冲击逐步凸显，并导致经常账户顺差有所收窄以及直接投资和证券投资账户的波动，但对于 人民币汇率更为重要的是国内对冲政策的力度和中美经贸磋商的进度。支撑因素中，一是美国经济数据 持续走弱预期下，美元指数或偏弱运行，人民币汇率的被动贬值压力有所缓和；二是全球投资者对于非 美货币以及非美资产的需求边际抬升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by external factors, including a weak US dollar index and heightened market expectations for US-China trade negotiations [1][2][4]. Group 1: External Factors Influencing RMB Exchange Rate - The US "reciprocal tariff" policy has raised concerns about the US economic fundamentals and inflation, leading to a decline in trust among foreign investors in dollar-denominated assets, resulting in a 4.37% drop in the dollar index in April [2]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar against the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar triggering a strong exchange guarantee reflect an initial increase in demand for non-USD currencies and assets [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's evaluation of the possibility of restarting trade negotiations with the US has contributed to the rise in expectations for US-China talks, supporting the offshore RMB exchange rate [2]. Group 2: Domestic Factors and Policy Implications - The pressure on the RMB exchange rate is expected to increase due to the gradual impact of US tariffs on China's export fundamentals, leading to a narrowing of the current account surplus [3][4]. - Domestic policies and the basic economic situation are expected to play a stabilizing role for the exchange rate, with a relatively restrained use of exchange rate stabilization tools in April [2][3]. - The potential for a temporary appreciation of the RMB may trigger some demand for currency settlement, which could further increase volatility in the RMB exchange rate [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The balance of pressure and support factors for the RMB exchange rate appears relatively even, with expectations of short-term fluctuations around a new equilibrium [1][4]. - The weakening of the US economy is expected to continue, which may lead to a sustained weak dollar index, alleviating some depreciation pressure on the RMB [5]. - The demand for non-USD currencies and assets is expected to increase marginally, providing additional support for the RMB [5].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB against the US dollar surged nearly 900 points over two trading days, driven by four main factors [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The travel data during the May Day holiday reached a historical high, potentially injecting more economic growth momentum [1] - The A50 index also performed well, rising over 1.5% in the last two trading days [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Positive signals emerged from Sino-US trade negotiations during the May Day holiday, contributing to the rise in RMB assets [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted that the US has expressed willingness to negotiate on tariff issues, indicating a potential thaw in trade tensions [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - There is a possibility that risk-averse funds are reallocating towards RMB assets [1] - The backdrop of a declining US dollar index may be leading to a gradual release of settlement funds [1]