Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of medium- and long-term planning in guiding economic and social development, highlighting the need for a scientific fiscal and tax system to optimize resource allocation and promote social equity [1][6]. Group 1: Role of Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy should focus on promoting high-quality development by enhancing development momentum, transforming development methods, optimizing development patterns, and improving development efficiency [1][2]. - The government needs to stimulate technological innovation as a key driver for high-quality development, increasing investment in strategic and critical areas while encouraging diverse entities to support innovation [2]. - A comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society is essential, requiring fiscal support and a tax policy system that promotes green production and living [3]. Group 2: Development Structure and Efficiency - The domestic economic cycle must be prioritized, with fiscal policies aimed at enhancing domestic demand and optimizing resource allocation to stimulate consumption [4]. - The concept of shared prosperity is crucial, with fiscal measures aimed at improving public services and addressing issues like employment, education, and healthcare to ensure equitable distribution of modernization benefits [5]. Group 3: Fiscal and Tax System Reform - Deepening fiscal and tax system reforms is vital for effective implementation of medium- and long-term plans, ensuring that fiscal policies align with national strategic goals [6][9]. - Budget management reforms should enhance the ability of budgets to support major national policies, focusing on transparency and performance management [7]. - Clarifying the fiscal relationship between central and local governments is necessary to balance national directives with local initiatives, ensuring effective resource allocation [8]. Group 4: Implementation and Coordination - Strengthening fiscal resource management is essential to ensure that development goals are met, requiring a strategic approach to resource allocation and management [10]. - Improving the interaction between fiscal and financial policies is crucial for effective implementation of planning objectives, ensuring that policies are well-coordinated and timely [11]. - Addressing bottlenecks in planning implementation through improved fiscal mechanisms can enhance government functions and provide stable expectations for various stakeholders [12].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of medium to long-term planning in guiding economic and social development, highlighting the need for a scientific fiscal and tax system to optimize resource allocation and maintain market unity [1][7] Group 1: High-Quality Development - The focus is on leveraging fiscal policies to drive high-quality development by enhancing development momentum, transforming development methods, optimizing development patterns, and improving development efficiency [2][3] - It is essential to stimulate technological innovation as a key driver for high-quality development, requiring increased fiscal investment in strategic and critical areas [3][4] Group 2: Green Transformation - Promoting a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development is crucial, with fiscal support needed to create a tax policy system that encourages green production and living [4][5] - The article discusses the importance of establishing fiscal policies that support new energy systems, traditional industry upgrades, and green technology innovations [4] Group 3: Domestic Circulation - Enhancing the coverage of domestic circulation is necessary, with fiscal policies aimed at optimizing resource allocation and promoting structural adjustments to support domestic demand [5][6] - Short-term measures like issuing consumption vouchers and long-term strategies to improve consumer capacity are suggested to stimulate consumption [5] Group 4: Shared Prosperity - The article highlights the need for fiscal policies to promote shared prosperity, ensuring that the benefits of modernization are equitably distributed among the population [6][11] - It emphasizes the importance of addressing issues related to employment, education, healthcare, and housing through effective fiscal measures [6] Group 5: Fiscal System Reform - The need for deepening fiscal and tax system reforms is underscored, with a focus on improving budget management and clarifying the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [7][8][9] - Establishing a modern tax system that supports high-quality development and social equity is also emphasized [10] Group 6: Implementation and Coordination - The article stresses the importance of ensuring that fiscal resources are effectively managed to meet planning goals, with a focus on aligning fiscal and monetary policies for better execution of medium to long-term plans [11][12][13] - It discusses the need for a robust mechanism to address implementation challenges and ensure that fiscal policies effectively support various stakeholders [14]

Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [1] - In Q3, GDP growth was 4.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from Q2, aligning with market expectations [1] - The primary industry contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth, higher than Q2's 0.2, while the secondary and tertiary industries saw a decline in their contributions [1] Demand and Consumption - Final consumption expenditure contributed 2.7 percentage points to GDP growth in Q3, while net exports contributed 1.2 percentage points, both remaining stable compared to Q2 [1] - Social retail sales increased by 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, down from 5.0% in the first half of the year, indicating a slight decline in consumer spending [2] - Consumer confidence index has shown signs of recovery, suggesting a gradual restoration of internal consumption dynamics [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth fell to -0.5% in the first three quarters, with declines noted in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments [2] - Challenges to achieving annual economic goals include intensified external trade frictions and the need to boost investor confidence [2] Policy Measures - Recent government policies have focused on enhancing liquidity and supporting consumption, leading to improvements in manufacturing PMI and business activity expectations [3] - The central government plans to allocate 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support project construction in economically significant provinces [3] - The upcoming Central Committee meeting is expected to outline a new five-year development plan, potentially boosting economic growth confidence [3]

Economic Growth - In the first three quarters of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, maintaining a level above the target, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual goals [1] - In the third quarter, GDP growth was 4.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter, aligning with market expectations [1] - The primary industry contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in Q3, up from 0.2 in Q2, while the contributions from the secondary and tertiary industries declined [1] Domestic Demand - Total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, down from 5.0% in the first half of the year, but consumer confidence is gradually recovering [2] - Fixed asset investment growth fell to -0.5% in the first three quarters, with declines in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments [2] Policy Measures - Recent government policies have included accelerated issuance of government bonds and liquidity support from the central bank, leading to improvements in manufacturing PMI for two consecutive months [3] - The central government will allocate 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support project construction in economically significant provinces [3] - The upcoming Central Committee meeting is expected to outline a new five-year development plan, potentially boosting economic growth confidence [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - Short-term focus is on the "15th Five-Year Plan," while mid-term strategies await the economic work conference for direction [1]. - The construction materials sector has shown a decline of 4.11% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 2.22% [4]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic circulation and technological advancements in the industry, particularly in the context of the upcoming economic policies [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 346.8 CNY/ton, down by 2.3 CNY/ton from last week and down 61.8 CNY/ton from the same period in 2024. The average cement inventory ratio is 67.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from last week [4][20][15]. - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1301.0 CNY/ton, up 11.2 CNY/ton from last week and up 46.6% from 2024. Inventory levels have increased, indicating a potential oversupply [45][51]. - **Fiberglass**: The market for fiberglass remains stable, with prices for non-alkali yarn around 3250-3700 CNY/ton, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.93% [4][6]. 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the cement market is experiencing weak demand, particularly in northern regions due to weather conditions, while southern regions face financial constraints [13][14]. - The glass market is characterized by high inventory levels and weak demand, leading to price fluctuations [44][51]. - The report emphasizes the need for supply-side reforms and the potential for price stabilization in the fiberglass sector as excess capacity is addressed [7][8]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector's valuation is at historical lows, with expectations for policy support to enhance profitability and valuation recovery [4][6]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the cement industry, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, are well-positioned to benefit from industry consolidation and improved market conditions [4][6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated and declined. In the first half of the week, the market sentiment was weak due to large inventory pressure and unmet demand expectations. In the second half of the week, the market sentiment slightly recovered, and the price decline was small. As of October 17, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton [2][4]. - In the future, the steel market may present a pattern of weak supply and demand. Steel prices still face significant upward pressure and may fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated and declined this week. In the first half of the week, the market sentiment was weak because of large inventory pressure and unmet demand expectations, but the raw material side provided some support. In the second half of the week, the market sentiment slightly recovered, and the price decline was small. As of October 17, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton [2][4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The Chinese government emphasizes counter - cyclical regulation, expanding domestic demand, and improving the industrial ecosystem [6]. - China and the United States will hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [6]. - In the first three quarters of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%; imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports increased by 8.4% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.5% year - on - year [6]. - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan; M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year; the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [6]. - In September, China's PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year and remained flat month - on - month. CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month [7]. - The World Steel Association expects global steel demand in 2025 to be flat compared to 2024, reaching about 1.75 billion tons. The decline in China's steel demand is expected to slow down, and steel demand in developing economies such as India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia will grow strongly. European steel demand will experience a long - awaited recovery [7]. - On October 17, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% new tariff on imported medium and heavy trucks and parts starting from November 1. He also said that a 10% tariff will be imposed on imported passenger cars [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials in the past two weeks was 97,800 tons, lower than last week's 99,900 tons. The overall market trading was weak, terminal purchasing willingness was low, and the spot trading price was getting closer to the low level [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The current daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces is still above 2.4 million tons. Steel mills are generally in a state of small profit or loss. It is expected that the supply side will continue to shrink, which is conducive to alleviating the supply - demand contradiction. The steel market may present a pattern of weak supply and demand in the future, and steel prices may fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential [26]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for steel profits, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for option strategies, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that consumption remains the main engine of economic growth, with new types of consumption developing rapidly and market vitality increasing [1] - In the first three quarters, final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth, an increase of 9.0 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The "old-for-new" policy has been expanded, with 300 billion yuan in special bonds allocated to support consumer demand [1] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" policy has led to double-digit growth in retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, and furniture [4] - As of September 10, over 8.3 million applications for vehicle replacements under the "old-for-new" policy have been submitted, averaging over 30,000 applications per day [4] - Retail sales of high-efficiency and smart appliances have continued to grow rapidly, driven by policies to expand service consumption [7] Group 3 - Service retail sales increased by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.6 percentage points [7] - Categories such as cultural and recreational services, communication and information services, travel consulting and leasing services, and transportation services all achieved double-digit growth [7] - The spokesperson from the National Bureau of Statistics emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand and enhancing market vitality to promote sustained economic development [9]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson emphasized the need for implementing counter-cyclical adjustments and enhancing domestic demand to stimulate economic growth and market vitality before the third quarter of 2025 [1] Group 1 - The government aims to strengthen the domestic circulation and enhance endogenous growth momentum to promote sustained and healthy economic development [1] - There is a focus on effectively implementing the decisions and deployments of the Central Committee and the State Council [1] - The strategy includes continuous efforts to boost market confidence and development expectations [1]

Economic Overview - The national GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [1] - The GDP growth rates by quarter were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q3 [1] Agriculture - Agricultural value added grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with summer grain and early rice production totaling 178.25 million tons, an increase of 0.1% [2] - Livestock production saw a total output of 73.12 million tons, up 3.8% year-on-year, with specific increases in pork, beef, and poultry [2] Industrial Production - Industrial value added for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing growing by 6.8% [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors showed strong growth, with increases of 9.6% and 9.7% respectively [3] - In September, industrial value added grew by 6.5% year-on-year and 0.64% month-on-month [3] Services Sector - The services sector's value added increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in information transmission and software services at 11.2% [4] - The service industry production index rose by 5.6% year-on-year in September, indicating robust activity [4] Retail Sales - Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,658.77 billion yuan, growing by 4.5% year-on-year, with urban retail sales at 3,168.38 billion yuan [5] - Online retail sales amounted to 1,128.30 billion yuan, a 9.8% increase, with physical goods online sales at 915.28 billion yuan, growing by 6.5% [5] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 3,715.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment grew by 4.0% [7] - Infrastructure investment increased by 1.1%, while real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 13.9% [7] Trade - Total import and export value reached 3,360.78 billion yuan, with exports growing by 7.1% and imports slightly declining by 0.2% [8] - In September, the total trade value was 404.36 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year increase [8] Consumer Prices - The national CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices dropping by 0.8% [9] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6%, indicating a slight increase in underlying inflation pressures [9] Employment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first three quarters, with a slight decrease in September [10] - The total number of rural laborers working outside their home areas reached 191.87 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [10] Income - Per capita disposable income reached 32,509 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.1% year-on-year [11] - Rural residents experienced a faster income growth rate compared to urban residents, with rural disposable income growing by 6.0% [11]

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson highlighted the progress in deepening reform and opening up during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, emphasizing the shift towards a unified national market and the reduction of market access negative list items from 123 in 2020 to 106 by 2025 [1] - Domestic demand has solidified its position as the main driver of economic growth, contributing an average of 86.8% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024, with final consumption expenditure's contribution increasing by 11.1 percentage points compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan period [1] - China's status as the largest goods trading nation remains strong, with the scale of goods trade projected to grow from 32.2 trillion yuan in 2020 to 43.8 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of 8.0% [1] - The expansion of institutional opening-up is evident, with the total number of free trade pilot zones reaching 22 during the 14th Five-Year Plan, resulting in nearly 200 institutional innovation achievements [1]