受政府"停摆"影响，美国空中交通管制人员严重短缺造成多地机场航班延误甚至取消，机场运营也受到 影响。据美国航班跟踪网站的数据，仅30日当天，全美因各种原因已有超过6000架次航班延误，超1000 架次航班取消。 当地时间10月31日，美国联邦航空管理局表示，美国纽约肯尼迪国际机场因人员配备问题面临地面停 飞。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Core Points - A federal judge ruled that the Trump administration cannot suspend the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits during the government shutdown, as it may violate federal law [1] - The SNAP program ran out of funds on October 31, affecting approximately 42 million people in the U.S., which is about one-eighth of the total population, with most recipients living below the poverty line [1] - Beneficiaries of SNAP can use federal food assistance to purchase food at designated stores [1]

The Orlando airport was nearly shut down due to staff shortage during the United States government shutdown, but a last-minute arrangement of the air traffic controllers averted the closure. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had planned to close Orlando for landings.According to the reports, Orlando, Dallas/Fort Worth and Washington, DC airports witnessed a number of flights getting delayed due to shortage of staff ever since the government shut down on October 1 due to Republicans' standoff with th ...

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown for 30 days as of October 30, which poses significant risks to the aviation industry, particularly as the Thanksgiving travel season approaches [1] - Vice President Kamala Harris warned that prolonged shutdown could lead to a "disaster" for air travel, citing potential increases in airport security wait times and pilot absenteeism due to financial concerns [1] Aviation Industry Impact - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in increased flight delays due to absenteeism among air traffic controllers, affecting thousands of flights daily [1] - Approximately 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration (TSA) security personnel are currently working without pay due to the shutdown [1] - Despite concerns, most commercial airline pilots are not federal employees and their income is not directly impacted by the government shutdown [1]

央视网消息：美国政府"停摆"10月30日进入第30天，据央视记者获悉，美国众议院工作人员收到通 知，将无法领取原定于10月31日发放的薪水。而随着领取免费食物的联邦雇员越来越多，一些食物分发 点倍感压力。 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 11134, with an opening price of 11427.00 CNY/kg and a current price of 11168 CNY/kg, reflecting a decrease of 0.22% [1] - The highest price reached today was 11438 CNY/kg, while the lowest was 11122 CNY/kg, indicating a short-term sideways trend in silver futures [1] - The recent trading strategy suggests a bullish outlook for silver, with potential upward movement towards 11700 CNY/kg, while short-term trading opportunities may arise around 11200 CNY/kg [3] Group 2 - The U.S. House of Representatives staff have been notified that they will not receive their scheduled pay on October 31 due to a funding lapse, highlighting the direct impact of the government shutdown [2] - Bipartisan discussions are reportedly gaining urgency as key deadlines approach, with indications that more centrist Democrats may be willing to compromise on a temporary funding bill [2] - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, and will cease balance sheet reduction starting December 1 [2]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future direction depends on the outcome of the current round of negotiations. It is expected that the price volatility may increase next week. It is recommended that investors hold an empty or light - position. Aggressive investors can consider the option double - buying strategy to gain potential returns from the rising volatility [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: The US soybean futures contracts were relatively strong, with the main contract at 1075 cents. The domestic soybean meal rebounded slightly from its low level last week but was weaker than the external market. The market was affected by the China - US talks, and the bulls were hesitant to enter the market due to the uncertainty of importing US soybeans. Also, potential positive factors could not be realized because of the US government shutdown [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the results of the negotiation. It is recommended that investors hold an empty or light - position. Aggressive investors can consider the option double - buying strategy [6]. b. Industry News - As of Sunday, the US soybean harvest is expected to be 84% complete, and corn harvest 72% complete. Analysts' forecasts for the US harvest progress range from 80% - 88% for soybeans and 67% - 80% for corn. Last year, the soybean harvest progress was 89%, and the corn harvest progress was 81% [7]. - Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to reach 7 million tons, down from the previous week's estimate of 7.34 million tons. Brazil's soybean meal exports in October are expected to reach 2.08 million tons, down from 2.09 million tons the previous week [9].

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate from a target range of 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00% is not guaranteed for December, with significant disagreement among FOMC members [2][8][9] - The Fed plans to end balance sheet reduction starting December 1, indicating a shift towards maintaining a stable balance sheet size [9][10] Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job growth slowing since the beginning of the year, attributed to a decline in labor supply and reduced immigration [3][30] - Despite some companies announcing layoffs, initial unemployment claims remain stable, suggesting no immediate deterioration in the labor market [3][30][40] Inflation Trends - Inflation remains slightly above the Fed's 2% target, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.8% over the past year, driven by tariff impacts on goods [4][21] - Core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, is estimated to be around 2.3%-2.4%, indicating that non-tariff inflation is not significantly deviating from the target [21][31] Economic Activity - Economic growth is projected to be moderate, with GDP growth at 1.6% for the first half of the year, lower than the previous year's 2.4% [2][37] - Consumer spending has shown strength, which may offset some negative impacts from the government shutdown [2][37] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased by $2.2 trillion over the past three and a half years, with the current size at approximately 21% of nominal GDP [9][10] - The Fed will reinvest proceeds from maturing agency securities into short-term Treasury bills to adjust the balance sheet structure [10][18] Market Reactions and Future Considerations - The market has priced in expectations for a rate cut in December, but the Fed emphasizes that this is not a foregone conclusion [11][12] - The ongoing government shutdown may complicate data collection and impact future policy decisions, leading to a more cautious approach [24][25]

Group 1 - The outlook for policy interest rates indicates that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is not guaranteed, with significant disagreement among FOMC members about whether to pause [1] - The composition of the balance sheet has not been decided, and adjustments will be gradual, aiming for a shorter duration of the balance sheet [1] - The employment market is cooling due to restrictive policies, but there is no significant worsening in job market weakness, with job vacancies indicating stability over the past month [1] Group 2 - Inflation data shows that the September CPI was more moderate than expected, with core PCE potentially at 2.3% or 2.4% when excluding tariffs, and non-tariff inflation remaining close to the 2% target [1] - The potential government shutdown could impact the December FOMC monetary policy meeting, as private sector data cannot replace government statistics [1] - Market reactions include a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield by over 8 basis points, stabilizing around 4.0583%, and a rise in the 2-year Treasury yield by over 10 basis points, stabilizing around 3.5919% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the government shutdown will temporarily hinder economic activity [1] Economic Impact - The government shutdown is expected to have a short-term negative effect on economic performance [1]