卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者林彦 邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 文 | 林彦 邵翔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 我们一直认为：作为一个慢变量，宏观应该是经济和金融市场中相对容易预测的部分。但在经历了近期的市场波动后，外界也许更加理解我们为什么会说： 今年预测不到的事，远比我们自认为能预测的事要多。当"百年未有之大变局"下遇到了历史上数一数二"善变"的美国总统，全球宏观研究员和外贸企业突然 成为了同一拨"被害者"。唯一能庆幸的是相比后者，至少我们不用安排自己的产品"海面两万里"（抢转口或是出口）。 目前看来，今年中间这两个季度可能是作为这个"乱纪元"中最混乱的一个阶段。 对市场有着深刻影响的因素包括但不限于：全球关税战 +减税支出再平衡+美联储独立性+美国三权分立争端+全球央行节奏错位+中东地缘政治冲突等。市场关注的宏观内容几乎涵盖了所有的社 会科学范畴。而我们的学习迭代能力完全跟不上事态变化的速度。所以我们觉得最合理的对策是： 着眼当下，对即将到来的三季度做有限 的预测（而且主要是偏长期的逻辑，然后看 ...

Core Insights - New energy storage is a crucial area for developing domestic energy new formats and seizing international strategic heights, with Shenzhen Longgang's storage companies leading the charge through technological innovation and business model adaptation [1] Group 1: Technological Innovations - Shanhe Power is conducting extreme cold tests on lithium battery systems, achieving energy densities comparable to "solid-state battery prototypes" [1] - Wenshu Innovation's EP Cube system integrates smart monitoring via a mobile app, allowing users to manage energy generation, storage, and consumption in real-time [4][6] - Flying Saucer Power's storage systems are designed to withstand extreme weather conditions, featuring IP65 waterproof standards, ensuring operational integrity in harsh environments [8] Group 2: Cost and Efficiency - Wenshu Innovation's EP Cube weighs only 38 kg, addressing installation cost issues and allowing for flexible capacity expansion from 5 kWh to 20 kWh [6] - Shanhe Power's AGV battery pack operates at 2400W, maintaining over 85% efficiency in extreme cold conditions, showcasing the company's focus on performance under challenging environments [10] - The energy storage systems from Flying Saucer Power can replace significant amounts of fossil fuels, with a 100 MW system generating 120 million kWh annually, equivalent to replacing 36,000 tons of coal [11] Group 3: Business Models and Market Expansion - Wenshu Innovation's success in high-end markets is attributed to its comprehensive energy management solutions, leading to a significant increase in overseas orders [16] - Flying Saucer Power emphasizes a "full lifecycle service" model, ensuring stable and efficient operation for international clients, enhancing its reputation in competitive markets [18] - Shanhe Power collaborates with Intel to develop AI chips for battery management systems, aiming for over 99% predictive accuracy, which enhances product performance and competitiveness [20] Group 4: Policy Support and Industry Growth - The Longgang District government has introduced supportive policies for the new energy storage industry, including funding for key technology breakthroughs and international market expansion [20]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of 5 billion yuan in strategic investments by Seres Group's subsidiary, Seres Automotive, aims to strengthen its capital structure and support its ambitious production goals, despite facing competitive pressures in the automotive market [2][3][5]. Group 1: Investment and Financial Structure - Seres Automotive has successfully raised 5 billion yuan from nine strategic investors, increasing its registered capital to 10.637 billion yuan [2]. - The capital increase is intended to enhance Seres Automotive's capital strength and reduce its debt-to-asset ratio, which stood at 76.83% as of Q1 2025, above the industry average [3]. - The company reported a net cash outflow of 7.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, indicating significant short-term repayment pressure, which the new funding could alleviate [3]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Goals - The capital injection is also aimed at expanding production capacity, with Seres Group targeting an annual production and sales volume of one million units for its "Wenjie" brand within three years [3][4]. - The company has three factories with a total designed annual capacity of 600,000 vehicles, and the utilization rate of its facilities reached 98.93% in the first nine months of 2024 [3]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - The new investors include major state-owned banks and industry funds, which are expected to enhance supply chain collaboration and resource integration for Seres Automotive [4]. - The partnership with state-owned entities may improve the valuation of Seres' upcoming Hong Kong IPO, which was initiated on April 28, 2024 [4]. - Despite the positive developments, Seres Group faced a 22.92% year-on-year decline in sales, totaling 108,800 vehicles from January to May 2025, and its R&D expenditure as a percentage of revenue fell to 3.2%, below the industry average of 5%-8% [5].

蛰伏四年后，医药行业终于迎来爆发，wind香港生物科技指数(887177.WI)年内累计涨幅近82%，成为 最亮眼的板块;经历同周期洗牌的风电板块，当前正蓄势待发。 海内外需求共振 从去年开始，风电招标量就开始爆发性增长。根据金风科技年报显示，2024年国内风电整机新增招标 164.1GW，同比增长90.2%。其中，陆上新增招标152.8GW，海上新增招标11.3GW。根据世纪证券统计 显示，截止至2025年6月初，全国风机累计公开招标容量48.8GW，同比增长78%，其中陆上风机公开招 标容量39.2GW，同比增长61%，海上风机公开招标容量9.6GW，同比增长213%。 由于陆上风电中标至装机往往在一年左右，海上风电周期更久，因此中标数据可作为先验指标。也就是 意味着今年开始，风电产业链进入装机周期，业绩也得到了保障。 从长期来看，风电需求依然旺盛。 就陆上风电而言，风光大基地为陆风提供了需求基础。国家能源局统计数据显示，截至 2024 年底，首 批规划的"沙戈荒"区域大型风电光伏基地基本完工。第一批基地已建成 9,199 万千瓦、约占 95%，投产 9079 万千瓦，第二批、第三批"沙戈荒"大型风电光伏 ...

Core Insights - China continues to invest heavily in hydropower, maintaining a leading position in the global renewable energy sector, with 14.4 GW of the 24.6 GW of new hydropower capacity added globally last year [1][3] - Over half of the new hydropower capacity in China last year came from pumped storage projects, which are essential for grid stability and flexibility [3] - China has set a carbon neutrality goal for 2060 and has already surpassed its initial 2030 targets for solar and wind capacity, achieving over 1.2 billion watts by the end of 2024 [3] Hydropower Capacity and Technology - China's total hydropower capacity is nearing 436 GW, accounting for over three-quarters of Asia's total hydropower capacity [3] - Pumped storage hydropower plants are recognized for their peak shaving, frequency regulation, pressure control, and black start capabilities, making them the most mature and economically viable green flexible power sources [3] Global Context and Challenges - Other countries, including Australia, Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, and the Philippines, are also advancing new hydropower projects, but face significant challenges outside of China due to high upfront costs and long investment recovery periods [5] - The lack of clear capacity service assessment mechanisms in many markets complicates investment for developers, while some regions face technical and climatic limitations that hinder energy development [5]

Group 1: EMS Development and Market Position - EMS3.0 integrates AI and renewable energy, enhancing the capabilities of EMS2.0, which focuses on centralized monitoring and management of microgrids [1] - EMS3.0 aims to optimize the operation of distributed energy resources and reduce electricity costs, adapting to new power system requirements [1] - The transition from traditional clients to new industry clients, particularly in parks and renewable energy sectors, indicates a significant improvement in the company's industry focus [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to maintain stable dividends to enhance shareholder returns and market recognition [1] - Continuous improvement in operational management is expected to drive core competitiveness and company value [1] Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - The rise of energy internet and carbon neutrality trends are driving industry demand and technological diversification [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its business in energy storage and photovoltaic sectors, providing intelligent microgrid solutions [2] - Emphasis on product transformation and upgrading through internet tools and cloud platforms to meet market demands [2]

节能环保需要你我他一起行动，更需要形成习惯，胜在长久。今年也是应对气候变化《巴黎协定》达成 10周年，中国始终做世界绿色发展的坚定行动派和重要贡献者，推进碳达峰、碳中和是我们对国际社会 的庄严承诺，我们愿同各方一道积极应对气候变化，共同守护地球家园。（智通财经） 6月25日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。郭嘉昆表示，今天是"全国低碳日"，本周也是第35 个"全国节能宣传周"。近年来中国政府大力倡导节能低碳的生活方式，绿色出行、节水节电、光盘行 动、垃圾分类已经成为社会风尚，也是外交部的日常规范。 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Syensqo, a specialty chemicals company, was established in December 2023 after spinning off from Solvay Group, with a focus on various sectors including home, food, automotive, and healthcare [1][6] - The company employs over 13,000 people globally, with approximately 1,800 employees in China, and operates 62 production sites worldwide, including 6 in China [1][6] - Syensqo has invested 4 billion yuan in its Shanghai research and innovation center since 2005, which is one of the largest of its kind globally [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The specialty chemicals industry is currently facing volatility and uncertainty due to tariffs and international conflicts, but these challenges are viewed as temporary [2][7] - China is seen as a crucial market for Syensqo, with the potential for business revenue to double, as the country demands more complex and sustainable products [6][9] - The company anticipates that the Asian market will grow faster than other regions, with current revenue from China accounting for about 15% of total earnings [6][9] Group 3: Innovation and Technology - Syensqo emphasizes the importance of innovation, with 20% of annual sales coming from products launched in the last five years, indicating a commitment to continuous product renewal [11][12] - The company has integrated generative AI into its operations, enhancing innovation processes and sales channels [5][12] - Collaborations with local universities and research institutions are prioritized to foster talent and drive innovation in the specialty chemicals sector [12][13] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Syensqo is focused on localizing its operations, implementing a strategy of "local for local" to enhance resilience and cost-effectiveness in its supply chains [7][10] - The company is actively investing in expanding its production capabilities in China, including recent expansions at its Changshu facility [8][9] - Syensqo aims to support Chinese automotive companies in establishing a presence in Europe, leveraging its understanding of local regulations and market dynamics [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese textile industry is undergoing a transformative shift towards green development, emphasizing technology, fashion, and sustainability, with a focus on specialized small and medium enterprises to lead this change [1][2]. Industry Overview - The number of legal entities in China's textile and apparel manufacturing industry has reached 1.748 million, employing a total of 15.54 million people [1]. - The textile and apparel manufacturing sector, including textile, apparel, and chemical fiber manufacturing, comprises 352,000 legal entities, accounting for 8.7% of the manufacturing industry [1]. Green Development Initiatives - The green concept is becoming the ecological foundation and value core of the modern textile industry system, with a strong push for technological innovation in the sector [1]. - The global fashion industry has committed to reducing value chain greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030, as part of the Fashion Industry Climate Action Charter signed at COP24 [2]. - China's textile industry accounts for over 50% of global fiber processing, with its carbon emissions representing about 2% of the national total [2]. Challenges and Recommendations - A recent survey indicated that less than 40% of specialized small and medium enterprises in the textile sector have conducted carbon assessments, and only 20% have set climate action goals [3]. - The textile industry faces challenges such as a long and fragmented supply chain, limited emission reduction capabilities among small enterprises, and high costs of recycled materials [3]. - Recommendations include optimizing energy structures, promoting recycled materials, and establishing a comprehensive carbon management system throughout the product lifecycle [3]. Collaborative Efforts - The industry is encouraged to strengthen cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, sharing green technologies and building green standards and markets [4]. - There is a call to explore the establishment of a stable and efficient cross-border recycling system for textiles [4].

6月23日，在民航局机关大楼一层大厅，干部职工通过参与垃圾分类模拟、互动问答、"找茬"浪费行为 等趣味活动增进对节能知识的了解，并纷纷在节能承诺墙上签名留念。同时，活动现场开展废旧物品回 收兑换，干部职工不仅能用废纸、废易拉罐、废塑料瓶等废旧物品兑换绿色植物、秸秆咖啡杯、环保袋 等，还能将个人废旧3C电器进行回收处理。 节能增效 焕"新"引领 民航局举办2025年节能宣传周活动 《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者潘瑾瑜 报道：6月23日至29日，民航局机关开展主题为"节能增效 焕'新'引领"的节能宣传周活动，传播节能降碳和绿色发展理念，倡导绿色低碳生活方式。 节能宣传周期间，民航各地区管理局、民航局属各单位也通过线上线下多种方式开展宣传教育活动，推 动节能降碳理念更加深入人心。（编辑：李佳洹 校对：陈虹莹 审核：程凌） 6月25日"全国低碳日"当天，民航局机关采用停开空调和关闭公共区域照明等方式，面向干部职工开展 能源紧缺体验。此外，干部职工积极减少办公设备待机能耗和一次性办公用品消耗，乘坐公共交通工 具、骑自行车或步行上下班，以绿色低碳的办公模式和出行方式支持节能减排工作。 机关干部职工在节能承诺墙上签名（本 ...