Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Dividend ETF (515080) has become a stable investment choice for many investors over its six years since listing, demonstrating strong performance and consistent dividend distribution [1][2]. Performance Overview - Since its inception, the China Securities Dividend ETF has outperformed its benchmark index, achieving a cumulative excess return of 69.83% as of Q3 2025 [2][3]. - The ETF has consistently outperformed its benchmark for five consecutive years since 2020, with annual returns as follows: 21.81% in 2020, 22.56% in 2021, -0.37% in 2022, 5.21% in 2023, and 17.63% in 2024 [3][19]. Dividend Distribution - The ETF has completed its fourth dividend distribution for the year in December 2025, with a distribution ratio of 1.26%, amounting to 0.2 yuan per ten shares [4]. - Since its listing, the ETF has distributed dividends 15 times, totaling 3.65 yuan per ten shares [4][5]. Growth in Scale and Investor Base - The scale of the China Securities Dividend ETF has increased from 340 million yuan at listing to 8.527 billion yuan, representing a 24-fold growth [7]. - The number of accounts holding the ETF has risen from 3,932 to 64,987, making it the leading ETF in its category [7]. Index Evolution - The underlying index of the ETF has undergone significant changes, with no overlap in the top ten constituent stocks compared to six years ago, indicating the index's adaptability and vitality [10][11]. Dividend Yield Comparison - The dividend yield of the China Securities Dividend Index has widened significantly compared to the 10-year government bond yield since 2019, with the current dividend yield at 5.12% versus 1.84% for government bonds [13]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the low interest rate environment will continue, making dividend assets attractive for long-term investors seeking stable cash flows [17]. - The market is anticipated to experience a "slow bull" trend in 2026, with dividend stocks expected to perform better than in 2025 due to their stable cash flow characteristics [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the price of electrolytic copper may show an inverted "V" trend throughout the year. It may fluctuate strongly in the first half of the year, challenging new highs, and weakly in the second half. The volatility of copper prices is expected to converge to a limited extent, and call options remain highly suitable. The main influencing factors include the Fed's monetary policy, Sino - US relations, changes in copper concentrate TC, and energy storage demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Copper Market Review - In 2025, copper prices showed a generally strong and fluctuating trend. By December 10, the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract had risen by nearly 25% during the year. The copper futures market went through four stages: in the first stage (January - March), the first wave of price increase was driven by the tightening supply of copper concentrate and the market's expectation of rising US inflation. In the second stage (April - mid - September), after hitting bottom, the price rebounded and then consolidated for a long time, affected by trade wars, Fed rate - cut expectations, and other factors. In the third stage (late September - mid - November), the second wave of price increase occurred due to the supply shortage of copper concentrate and positive market news. In the fourth stage (mid - November - present), the price repeatedly broke through historical highs, driven by market concerns about the Fed's future policies [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment Outlook 3.2.1 Fed Policy May Remain Loose - In 2025, the Fed's policy experienced multiple adjustments, including rate cuts and the end of the balance - sheet reduction plan. Looking ahead, according to the dot - plot after the December meeting, there is still one rate cut expected in 2026 and 2027. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will continue to expand its balance sheet and the independence of the Fed after Powell's term ends [11][12]. 3.2.2 Sino - US Game Will Continue - In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes went through several rounds of escalation and mitigation. The US used tariff hikes as a bargaining chip. In the future, Sino - US tariff disputes are expected to continue, and the US may focus on issues such as fentanyl and rare - earth exports [13][15]. 3.3 Demand Side: Emerging Demands Show Obvious Increases and May Explode in 2026 3.3.1 Traditional Industries Have Limited Growth - **Real Estate Remains in a Downturn**: In 2025, despite a series of policies, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion data continued to decline. In 2026, although the government will continue to promote real - estate stability policies, the real - estate market is expected to continue to drag down copper demand in the short term [16][19]. - **White Goods Production and Sales First Strong Then Weak**: In 2025, with the support of the "trade - in" policy, white - goods production and sales were strong in the first half of the year but weakened later. In 2026, with the possible continuation of the policy and the replacement cycle, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales of three major white goods is expected to be higher than in 2025. However, the year - on - year growth rate of exports of white goods has declined overall compared to last year, and its contribution to copper demand growth has weakened [23][24]. 3.3.2 Emerging Demands Will Gradually Become the Main Force of Copper Demand - **AI and Computing Power May Boost Future Power Grid Demand**: In 2025, power and grid infrastructure investment showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. In the future, AI and computing - power industries will become important demand drivers for power and grid infrastructure [29]. - **New - energy Vehicles Provide Stable Increases Despite Slower Growth**: In 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales maintained a relatively high year - on - year growth rate, providing stable copper demand. In 2026, although the subsidy for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales is still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32][34]. - **Photovoltaic Installation in China Has Stable Increases and Exports Are Impressive**: In 2025, due to policy changes, there was a "rush - to - install" phenomenon in the first five months, and the year - on - year growth rate of cumulative new installations and cumulative installations showed an inverted "V" trend. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of photovoltaic installation may be lower than in 2025 but will still be high. Photovoltaic cell exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate [35][37]. - **Energy Storage Demand May Explode**: In 2025, the new energy - storage installation volume in China is expected to increase by 24% year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected to reach 230GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate close to 70%. Globally, the new energy - storage installation volume in 2026 is expected to reach 480GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate of 60%, providing significant copper demand growth [44][47]. 3.4 Supply Side: Mine - end Shortage Persists, and Smelter Production Cuts May Expand 3.4.1 Frequent Overseas Mine Incidents Lead to Continuous Decline in Copper Concentrate TC - In 2025, overseas copper mines experienced many incidents, causing copper concentrate TC to decline continuously. CSPT called on domestic smelters to jointly cut production in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the global copper concentrate increment is expected to be 45 - 56 tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The shortage of copper concentrate will persist in the first half of 2026, and TC may remain at a very low level [49][62]. 3.4.2 Copper Mine Shortage Has Limited Impact on the Smelting End - In 2025, although copper concentrate was in short supply, the global and Chinese electrolytic copper production basically maintained the highest level in the same period of the past five years. In 2026, the shortage of copper concentrate may be difficult to ease in the first half of the year, and the domestic smelting industry may have a larger - scale joint production cut than in Q4 2025 [63]. 3.4.3 The Siphon Effect of US Copper Continues, and Spot Supplies of Shanghai and London Copper Are Tight - In 2025, due to factors such as tariffs, COMEX copper was at a significant premium, leading to a change in the global copper trade pattern. Copper flowed into the US, causing the inventory of COMEX copper to rise continuously, while the inventory of Shanghai and London copper decreased, resulting in a long - term tight spot supply and high prices [68][70]. 3.4.4 High Copper Prices Pressure Downstream Demand, and Social Inventory Remains at a High Level - In 2025, electrolytic copper social inventory increased to a high level in September, but it had little pressure on copper prices, which were mainly driven by macro factors and low copper concentrate TC [77]. 3.5 Future Outlook and Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.5.1 Global Copper Concentrate Supply - Demand Balance Remains Tight - In 2025, the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance was expected to be - 35 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 40 tons, with the supply gap widening compared to 2025. The shortage will persist in Q1 2026 and gradually ease in the later quarters [79][80]. 3.5.2 Electrolytic Copper Supply - Demand Balance - **Global**: In 2025, the global electrolytic copper supply - demand balance was in a tight state at - 5 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 21 tons, with the gap widening. - **China**: In 2025, the supply - demand balance of Chinese electrolytic copper was - 20.04 tons, with the gap nearly doubling compared to 2024. In 2026, it may decline slightly to - 30 tons, with the gap widening slightly compared to 2025 [81][83].

Key Points Summary Industry Overview - The focus is on the semiconductor and computing power industries, particularly in the context of domestic substitution and advancements in technology [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Domestic Substitution Acceleration**: Domestic equipment manufacturers are enhancing capabilities and expanding cooperation, significantly increasing the domestic substitution rate in semiconductor equipment, especially in applications at the semiconductor level [1]. - **Surge in Computing Power Demand**: Applications such as mobile phones and smart terminals are driving a surge in computing power demand, with liquid cooling and power systems becoming critical components [1][6]. - **Catalysts for Overseas Computing Power Supply Chain**: The overseas computing power supply chain is expected to experience multiple catalysts in Q1 2026, with Nvidia's COWS wafer production capacity projected to grow by 60%-70% in 2026 and by 50%-60% in 2027 [1][7]. - **Profit Forecast for Zhongji Xuchuang**: Market expectations for Zhongji Xuchuang's profit in 2026 are around 35 billion to 40 billion RMB, potentially doubling to 70 billion to 80 billion RMB if Nvidia and Google maintain high growth in 2027 [1][9]. - **Focus on Large Models**: The market is particularly interested in OpenAI's GPT and XAI's Grok large models, with expectations that a new generation of large models will be released in Q1 2026, which could validate the Scaling Law [2][10]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Investment Targets in North America**: Recommended investment targets include optical module-related companies such as NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, Yuanjie Technology, and Tianfu Communication, with NewEase showing significant potential due to its relatively small stock price increase [4][11]. - **Liquid Cooling System Price Increase**: The price of liquid cooling systems corresponding to Nvidia's GT300 chip is approximately $1,500, which is expected to rise to $4,000 with the upgrade to Ruby 200, indicating a clear logic of simultaneous price and volume increase [4][12]. - **Key Subfields in the Semiconductor Industry**: Notable subfields include measurement detection, coating and developing, packaging equipment, and materials, with significant market potential due to low penetration rates [5]. - **Future Trends in Computing Power**: The computing power sector is expected to be a major focus over the next three to ten years, with critical supporting facilities like liquid cooling and power systems [6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The highest certainty investment directions in the overseas computing power supply chain include the optical module industry, with a focus on NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, Yuanjie Technology, and Tianfu Communication, as well as the liquid cooling sector led by Yingweike [13].

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Core Viewpoint - Major institutional investors are continuously increasing their holdings in A500 ETF and other broad-based products, bringing stable incremental capital to the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The significant net subscription of A500 ETF may be influenced by quarter-end capital inflow, but this factor has a relatively limited impact on the overall funding situation [1] - Following the substantial subscription of A500, financing funds have shown an accelerated net inflow trend [1] - As market learning effects and profit-making effects accumulate, capital may preemptively position for the "spring rally" trend, with incremental funds expected to continue net inflow [1] Group 2: Currency and Foreign Investment - The continuous appreciation of the offshore RMB is likely to facilitate the gradual return of foreign capital to the Chinese market, further improving the funding situation [1] Group 3: Investment Focus - A "cross-year + spring" market trend is anticipated to continue, with a focus on blue-chip indices represented by CSI 300 and SSE 50 [1] - Key sectors to watch include cyclical price-increasing products, with recent price increases concentrated in non-ferrous metals, crude oil, chemicals, new energy supply chains, memory storage, and certain agricultural products [1] - Notable areas of interest include industrial metals, non-bank financials, and hotel aviation [1] - Recommended investment tracks include computing power, commercial aerospace, and controllable nuclear fusion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a "cross-year + spring" rally, driven by significant institutional investment in A500 ETF and other broad-based products, which brings stable incremental capital to the market. The continuous appreciation of the offshore RMB is expected to attract foreign capital back to the Chinese market, further improving the liquidity situation [1][2][21]. Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - Major institutional investors are increasing their holdings in A500 ETF, contributing to stable incremental capital in the market. Despite the large net subscriptions of A500 ETF potentially being influenced by quarter-end dynamics, the impact on liquidity is considered limited. Following the surge in A500 subscriptions, financing capital has also seen accelerated net inflows [2][6][21]. - In the first four trading days, financing capital saw a net inflow of 413.4 billion yuan, while new equity public funds increased by 100.4 million units, up by 31.9 million units from the previous period. The net inflow from ETF subscriptions reached 330.5 billion yuan [4][42][51]. Sector and Industry Focus - The market is likely to focus on blue-chip indices represented by the CSI 300 and SSE 50, with an emphasis on cyclical sectors. Key sectors to watch include industrial metals, non-bank financials, and hotel aviation, as well as the new energy industry chain and semiconductor sectors [2][7][22]. - Recent price increases have been concentrated in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, crude oil, chemicals, and new energy. For instance, platinum prices rose by 32.92%, silver by 14.38%, and nickel by 9.25% due to global liquidity easing and geopolitical tensions [22][40]. Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, attributed to the offshore RMB breaking the 7.0 mark, creating a 15-month high, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which has led to improved market liquidity. The central bank's commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy has also stabilized market expectations regarding future liquidity [3][28]. - The three major indices have broken through and stabilized above the 60-day moving average, forming a bullish arrangement, providing an opportunity for positioning ahead of the cross-year rally [3][28]. Investment Opportunities - The ongoing net inflow into A500 ETF reinforces a structural market rally, with significant capital flowing into high-weighted industries such as electronics, power equipment, and banking, which collectively account for over 45% of the index weight [12][17]. - The anticipated launch of options for A500 ETF in 2026 is expected to attract more capital, as historical data suggests that once an ETF is selected as an options underlying, its shares typically see a 40% to 60% increase in the short term [15][21]. Conclusion - The current market is gradually accumulating upward momentum, with a sustained "cross-year + spring" rally expected to continue. The focus remains on the inflow of incremental capital, the performance of cyclical sectors, and the potential for foreign capital to return to the Chinese market [6][26][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term, medium - term, and long - term trend rating of stock index futures is "oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoint of the Report - This week, the global stock market recovered. Affected by foreign holiday misalignment, the A - share market was mainly priced by domestic capital. The Shanghai Composite Index achieved eight consecutive positive days with increasing trading volume. The sentiment of holding cash for the holiday was low. In the short term, there are limited macro - level negatives, and positive factors like Beijing's real - estate policy optimization will boost the market. The subsequent market is expected to be oscillatory and positive, and long positions in stock index futures can be held continuously [2][10] Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week View and Overview of Key Macroeconomic Events 1.1 Next - Week Viewpoint - The subsequent market is expected to be oscillatory and positive, and long positions in stock index futures can be held continuously [2][10] 1.2 Key Events This Week - On December 22, the central bank introduced a one - time credit repair policy for personal overdue information from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2025, with a single - amount limit of no more than 10,000 RMB. The 12 - month LPR remained unchanged for the seventh consecutive month, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year and above LPR at 3.5% [11][12] - On December 23, Shanghai proposed the main economic goals for the 15th Five - Year Plan period and long - term goals for 2035 [13][14] - On December 24, the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development promoted the spot - sale system for commercial housing. Beijing optimized real - estate policies, including relaxing purchase conditions for non - local households and supporting multi - child families' housing needs. There were also reports of SMIC planning to raise prices for downstream customers [15][16][17] - On December 26, the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund was officially launched. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 13.1% in November. The central bank aimed to increase the scale and proportion of medium - and long - term funds invested in A - shares [18][19][20][21] 2. One - Week Market Performance Overview 2.1 Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From December 22 - 26, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 1.43%, with emerging markets (+2.11%) > developed markets (+1.35%) > frontier markets (+0.74%). The South Korean stock market rose 6.87%, outperforming the world, while the Indian stock market fell 0.21%, performing the worst globally [22] 2.2 Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - From December 22 - 26, Chinese equity assets rose significantly. In terms of different markets, A - shares > Chinese concept stocks > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of the A - share markets in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing was 1965.3 billion yuan, an increase of 204.7 billion yuan compared to last week. All broad - based A - share indices closed higher, with the CSI 500 Index rising 4.03%, performing the best, and the micro - cap stock index rising 0.68%, performing the worst [25] 2.3 Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - Most GICS primary industries globally rose this week. The leading industry was materials (+2.78%), and the industry with the largest decline was consumer staples (-0.07%). In the Chinese market, materials had the largest increase (+5.85%), and consumer staples lagged (-0.65%) [28] 2.4 Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries - Among A - share CITIC primary industries, 24 rose (20 last week) and 6 fell (10 last week). The industry with the largest increase was non - ferrous metals (+6.45%), and the industry with the largest decline was commerce and retail (-1.31%) [31] 2.5 Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles - Small - cap growth stocks outperformed this week [35] 2.6 Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis - Relevant charts show the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [38][39] 3. Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast 3.1 Broad - Based Index Valuation - The report provides PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year for multiple broad - based indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 100, etc. [44] 3.2 Primary Industry Valuation - The report provides valuation data for various primary industries, including PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year [45] 3.3 Equity Risk Premium of Broad - Based Indices - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased slightly this week [46][51] 3.4 Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast of Broad - Based Indices - The 2025 expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 was adjusted down to 8.65%, and the 2026 rate to 9.20%. For the CSI 500, the 2025 rate was adjusted down to 27.35%, and the 2026 rate was adjusted up to 22.23%. For the CSI 1000, the 2025 rate was adjusted up to 28.56%, and the 2026 rate was adjusted down to 23.09% [52] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking 4.1 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year bond yield rose, the 1 - year yield fell, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 98.0, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.03 [62] 4.2 Tracking of Trading - Type Capital - This week, the average daily trading volume of north - bound funds decreased by 26.4 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 41.3 billion yuan [61] 4.3 Tracking of Capital Flows through ETFs - There were 30 on - exchange ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 29 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 40 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 increased by 530 million, the CSI 500 by 690 million, the CSI 1000 by 1.3 billion, and the CSI A500 by 6.1 billion [65][66][69] 5. Tracking of High - Frequency Domestic Macroeconomic Data 5.1 Supply - Side: Tire Production Rate Declined - The report shows data on national blast furnace operating rates, coking enterprise operating rates, domestic crude steel daily output, etc., and the tire production rate declined [71][72][73] 5.2 Consumption - Side: Seasonal Uptick in Real - Estate Transactions - There was a seasonal uptick in real - estate transactions, including data on first - hand housing transaction areas in 30 large and medium - sized cities, second - hand housing transaction areas in 16 key cities, land transaction areas in 100 large and medium - sized cities, and second - hand housing listing volume and prices. The year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales rebounded, and the crude oil price dropped to around $63.7 per barrel [78][79][87] 5.3 Inflation Monitoring: The Uptrend of Producer Goods and Agricultural Product Prices Leveled Off - Producer goods prices rose rapidly, agricultural product prices recovered, and the report also shows the weekly change rate of the commodity index [89][90][94]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a broad-based rally from December 22 to December 26, with increased bullish sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index regained the 3900-point mark, reflecting a "V-shaped" rebound despite some intraday dips, indicating a mix of year-end market dynamics and emotional fluctuations [1] Sector Highlights - The metals sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, emerged as a standout performer, frequently setting historical records. The commercial aerospace sector also showed strength, buoyed by the launch of China's first commercial aerospace social fund and the anticipated debut of new reusable rockets [1] Sichuan Stocks - Among Sichuan stocks, Xinyi Sheng led with an impressive annual gain exceeding 400%. Other notable performers included Dongcai Technology, Xinjin Road, and Development Technology, each with annual increases over 200% [2] Company Developments - Yuantong Bio's subsidiary received FDA approval for its methylene blue injection, marking the company's third successful international product launch. This approval enhances the company's international product pipeline and supports its globalization strategy [3] - Mengsheng Electronics was shortlisted in the bidding for low-orbit satellite constellation application equipment, confirming its technical capabilities. However, the specific contract details and potential revenue remain unclear [4] - Zhongyou Insurance increased its stake in Sichuan Road and Bridge to 5%, marking its fourth stake increase in listed companies this year [5][6] - Tongwei Co. established a new solar energy company, expanding its operations in solar technology and equipment sales [7] Upcoming Events - The market anticipates several key events, including a product launch by Shanjiji on December 29, which is expected to attract significant attention. Additionally, the 2025 China Green Hydrogen Industry Conference will focus on critical aspects of the green hydrogen sector [10] - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trajectory into 2026, with a focus on technology growth and consumer recovery opportunities [11]

Core Insights - The report indicates that significant institutional investors are continuously increasing their holdings in A500 ETF and other broad-based products, providing stable incremental capital to the market. This trend is expected to lead to a "cross-year + spring" market rally as the market's profitability improves and financing capital accelerates its net inflow [1][4][22] - The report emphasizes that the main focus of the market is likely to be on blue-chip indices represented by CSI 300 and SSE 50, while cyclical sectors should be prioritized for investment [1][5][22] Group 1: Recent Capital Flow and ETF Trends - Since the beginning of 2025, the capital flow in stock ETFs has shown distinct phase characteristics and structural differentiation, with significant net subscriptions in A500 ETF since December, reflecting institutional investors' entry into the capital market [6][9][12] - The A500 ETF has seen a substantial net subscription of 810 billion yuan in December, indicating a strong interest from institutional investors, particularly in the context of the upcoming launch of A500 ETF options in 2026 [12][13][17] Group 2: Price Trends in Key Commodities - Recent price increases have been concentrated in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, crude oil, chemicals, and the new energy industry chain, with notable price rises in platinum (+32.92%), silver (+14.38%), and nickel (+9.25%) driven by global liquidity easing and geopolitical tensions [23][24] - The report highlights that the holding volumes of various commodities are at historically high levels, indicating potential supply constraints and speculative exposure in metals like aluminum, lead, and tin [26][27] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The report notes that the overall A-share market has shown a positive trend, with major indices breaking through key moving averages, supported by a favorable monetary policy environment and improved market liquidity [30][31] - The report also points out that sectors such as non-ferrous metals and defense have performed well due to improved economic expectations and specific market events, while consumer sectors have faced challenges [31][32]