碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 二、日度数据监测 | | | 锂电产业链产品价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 2025-05-26 2025-05-23 | | 涨 跌 | | | 期 货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 60100 | 60960 | -860 | | | | 连续合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 60260 | 60980 | -720 | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中国) | 美元/吨 | 688 | 690 | -2 | | | | 锂云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%） | 元/吨 | 700 | 705 | -5 | | | 锂 矿 | 锂云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%） | 元/吨 | 1260 | 1280 | -20 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:6%-7%） | 元/吨 | 5975 | 6025 | -50 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:7%-8%） | 元/吨 | 6975 | 7050 | ...

遂 宁锂电池产业链日益壮大。 起点锂电获悉， 5 月 24 日，第二十届中国西部国际博览会遂宁市投资推介会暨项目签约仪式在成都举行，活动中签约重大项目：遂宁新质交 通智能制造产业园。 该项目计划投资 52 亿元，主要建设固态电池和智能无人物流配送车。建成后会大大完善射洪"锂矿—锂盐—电池—终端"全产业链条。 除了该项目外，起点锂电今年也报道了落地遂宁的另外两大锂电项目。 4 月 15 日 遂宁 射洪市与富临集团签约锂电正极材料项目，计划投资约 56 亿元 ， 富临集团旗下富临精工为 锂电产业链材料端头部企业 。 富临集团在遂宁市项目较多， 从 2021 年到今 年已进行 四连投， 且 富临精工与宁德时代 关系较深， 子公司江西升华以增资扩股方式引入 宁德时代作为 投资者。 4 月 22 日遂宁市安居区与安徽相源新能源签约 ， 计划在遂宁投资 60 亿元锂电池项目，重点生产三款圆柱电池 18650/3214/46160 ，产品 将用于电动车辆、移动电源、笔记本电脑、无人机、电动工具、智能手机等领域。 相源新能源成立于 2016 年，总部位于安徽省淮北经济开发区，该公司 近两年动作较多，去年 在浙江 丽水投资建设 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry chain experienced mixed price movements in April, with certain materials like cobalt tetroxide, lithium cobalt oxide, ternary materials, and precursors seeing price increases, while others such as electrolytic copper, lithium hexafluorophosphate, manganese lithium, and lithium carbonate saw price declines [1]. Production Overview - In April, the total production of the four major cathode materials in China reached 358,300 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 27% and a month-on-month increase of 4%. The production breakdown includes 56,200 tons of ternary materials, 280,700 tons of lithium iron phosphate, 9,700 tons of lithium cobalt oxide, and 11,700 tons of manganese lithium [3]. - The production of anode materials in April reached 218,200 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18% and a month-on-month increase of 4.7% [7]. - The production of electrolytes in April was 160,900 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 41% and a month-on-month increase of 2.5% [9]. - The production of separators in April was 2.389 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 38% and a month-on-month increase of 6.7% [11]. - The production of ternary precursors in April was 71,900 tons, which represents a year-on-year decline of 11.7% but a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [13]. - The production of battery-grade copper foil in April was 77,500 tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 43% but a month-on-month decrease of 4% [15]. - The production of battery-grade aluminum foil in April was 39,500 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18% and a month-on-month increase of 1% [17]. Market Outlook - The market outlook for May suggests that due to tariff adjustments, energy storage is expected to recover, while the performance of power applications remains average [19].

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约跌 2.27%至 61180 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均跌 800 元/吨 至 63700 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价跌 800 元/吨至 62050 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下跌 200 元/吨至 65490 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）下跌 200 元/吨至 70635 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日 仓单库存增加 60 吨至 36684 吨。 2. 价格方面，锂矿端报价亦在下降，根据中联金澳洲锂辉石 5.5-6%最低价 645CIF 美元/吨。供应端， 周度产量环比增加 575 吨至 16055 吨，5 月总供应量较预期下调；需求端，5 月三元+磷酸铁锂消耗 碳酸锂量预计环比小幅增加；电芯端依旧保持景气。库存端，周度库存重回累库，周度环比增加 351 吨至 131920 吨，其中下游和其他环节去库，冶炼厂累库。 3. 当前市场矛盾实际仍应关注供应，锂矿价格延续下跌和供应减量仍然较低，导致市场仍较为悲观， 但需 ...

一、研究观点 点 评 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2505 合约跌 0.96%至 64120 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均上涨 100 元/ 吨至 64800 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂上涨 100 元/吨至 63150 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下跌 100 元/吨至 65840 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）下跌 100 元/吨至 70985 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日 仓单库减少 52 吨至 36664 吨。 2. 昨日广州期货交易所发布关于征集碳酸锂期货注册品牌的通知，详见链接： （http://www.gfex.com.cn/gfex/tzts/202505/deea23df0856405bb111e43efa4d328b.shtml）。 3. 供应端，周度产量环比增加 575 吨至 16055 吨，5 月总供应量较预期下调；需求端，5 月三元+磷 酸铁锂消耗碳酸锂量预计环比小幅增加，磷酸铁锂正极材料库存周转天数连续下降，三元材料有 小幅抬升迹象；电芯端依旧保持景气。库存端，周度库存重回累库，周度环比增加 351 吨至 131920 吨，其中下游和其他环节去库，冶炼厂累库。 4. 需求缺乏明显增量的 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 5 月 15 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约涨 3%至 65200 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均上涨 100 元/吨 至 64700 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 100 元/吨至 63050 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下 跌 50 元/吨至 65940 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）下跌 50 元/吨至 71085 元/吨。仓单方面，昨 日仓单库存增加 272 吨至 36716 吨。 2. 供应端，周度减产依旧，5 月总供应量较预期下调；需求端，5 月三元+磷酸铁锂消耗碳酸锂量预计 环比小幅增加，磷酸铁锂正极材料库存周转天数连续下降，三元材料有小幅抬升迹象；电芯端依旧 保持景气。库存端，周内出现小幅去库状态，但整体库存水平仍维持高位，特别是下游库存处于较 高水平。 3. 宏观情绪回暖，碳酸锂期货减仓促使价格上行，但基本面来看，需求缺乏明显增量的背景下，锂矿 价格下跌和供应上减量仍然较低，警惕短期低估值下的资金扰动。 碳酸锂日报 二、日度数据监测 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is undergoing a phase of clearing, with 70% of companies experiencing a year-on-year decline in ROE in 2024, although overall ROE is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the copper foil segment [1][2]. Performance Growth - The profit structure of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry chain is increasingly concentrated in the downstream battery segment, which remains dominant despite a slight decline in profit share in Q1 2025. The net profit attributable to the parent company from the battery segment for Q1 2023, 2024, and 2025 is 78.30%, 90.10%, and 80.63% respectively [1]. - Leading companies in the battery segment maintain stable profitability during the downturn, with notable net profits reported for 2024: CATL (44.993 billion), Zhongwei (1.281 billion), and Shanta (0.809 billion) [1]. Profitability Space - In Q1 2025, the industry ROE has shown recovery, with only 45% of companies experiencing a year-on-year decline, indicating an improvement in the overall ROE of the lithium battery industry, especially in the copper foil segment [2]. Debt Servicing Ability - Leading companies are reducing leverage, with CATL's asset-liability ratio decreasing by 4.10 percentage points in 2024 and 3.74 percentage points in Q1 2025. Other companies are increasing leverage to alleviate financial pressure [3]. - The operating cash flow continues to favor battery leaders, with total cash flow for the entire industry chain reaching 287.4 billion and 42 billion in 2024 and Q1 2025 respectively, with CATL and BYD accounting for 80% and 99% of this cash flow [3]. Operational Efficiency - The entire industry chain is under pressure, with 96% of companies experiencing a decline in fixed asset turnover in 2024. In Q1 2025, the rate of decline in asset turnover has slowed, but 57% of companies still report a year-on-year decrease [4]. - Approximately 79% of companies in the industry chain saw a decline in accounts receivable turnover in 2024, continuing the trend of extended payment periods observed in 2023 [4]. Financial Framework - Leading companies have seen an increase in ROE over the past eight quarters, with improvements in profitability for phosphate lithium, batteries, anodes, and copper foil expected soon. Capital expenditures have remained low since peaking in Q4 2022, with a balanced supply-demand situation anticipated for 2024 and Q1 2025 [5]. - The battery and phosphate lithium segments show weaker performance in terms of liquidity ratios and asset-liability ratios, indicating a pressing need for profitability recovery [5].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs significantly lowered the US Q1 GDP growth forecast to -0.8% due to an unexpected widening of the trade deficit in March, driven by increased consumer goods imports [1] - Morgan Stanley highlighted that uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead foreign investors to reduce their investments in the US [2] - Pantheon Macroeconomics indicated that the uncertainty from tariffs will limit any significant rebound in the French economy, projecting stagnation for the remainder of the year [3] Group 2 - ING reported that the euro has lost its status as a preferred alternative to the dollar, with most G10 currencies performing better than the euro recently [4] - ING also noted that news of potential reductions in auto tariffs by the Trump administration helped the dollar recover some of its recent losses [5] - Capital Economics stated that the impact of tariffs on the Eurozone economy is expected to intensify, with the economic sentiment index dropping from 95.2 to 93.6 in April [6] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank suggested that the European Central Bank should act more decisively to address increasing supply shocks and rising inflation [8] - Tianfeng Securities projected that the aerospace engine sector may stabilize and recover, with a significant portion of military electronic stocks held by active funds [9] - CITIC Securities reported that the implementation of new tax refund policies for departing travelers could boost domestic consumption, estimating a potential market space of nearly 100 billion [10]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market - The recent volatility in the US Treasury market is largely attributed to the upcoming June maturity, which may be overestimated in terms of its impact on financial markets [2] - In the short term, the supply pressure from maturing US Treasuries is expected to be limited, with a more significant focus on the debt ceiling adjustments anticipated in Q3 [2] - Long-term demand for US Treasuries may face a downward trend, with potential alternatives including European and Japanese bonds, as well as gold [2] Group 2: Technology Sector - The report discusses India's potential as the next manufacturing hub for Apple, highlighting the competitive tariff advantages for Indian exports compared to China [4] - Apple theoretically has the capacity to produce the required number of iPhones in India, but initial production will still rely on Chinese exports due to current limitations [4] - The localization of components in India is still in its early stages, with significant reliance on supply chains from other Asian countries for critical parts [4] Group 3: Energy and New Energy - The lithium battery production forecast for May shows a slight decline in overall production, primarily due to the cancellation of mandatory storage policies and the impact of US tariffs on exports [5] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for the lithium battery industry remains positive, driven by new vehicle models and technologies [5] - Recent power outages in Spain, Portugal, and southern France have underscored the need for investment in grid upgrades and DC grid technology, presenting opportunities for Chinese power equipment companies [6] Group 4: Media and Publishing - Phoenix Media reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 3.226 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decline, but a significant increase in net profit due to continued tax incentives [7] - The company maintains a stable core business and is rated as a "buy" based on its solid performance and favorable tax policies [7] Group 5: Financial Sector - The report indicates that the China Construction Bank's Q1 2025 net profit and revenue showed slight year-over-year changes, with a focus on asset quality and credit expansion [9] - The bank's diversified income sources and stable operations support a "buy" rating [9] Group 6: Consumer Goods - The report highlights the strong performance of China National Offshore Oil Corporation, with Q1 revenues showing a significant year-over-year increase, driven by stable oil and gas production [20] - The company is expected to maintain a "buy" rating due to its robust operational performance and project advancements [20] Group 7: Real Estate - The report notes that China Petroleum's Q1 2025 revenue and net profit exceeded expectations, attributed to increased natural gas production and sales [34] - The company is rated as "increase" based on its strong performance and potential for further growth in the natural gas sector [34]

Group 1: CATL's New Battery Products - CATL held its first Super Technology Day on April 21, unveiling three new battery products, including the Xiaoyao dual-core battery, which features a "dual-core architecture" with two independent energy zones using different chemical systems to address the limitations of traditional single-chemical batteries [1] - The second product introduced is the second-generation Shenxing ultra-fast charging battery, a lithium iron phosphate battery focused on fast charging capabilities [1] - The third product is the sodium-ion battery, representing the latest upgrade in sodium-ion technology [1] Group 2: Geely's New Battery Group - Geely announced the establishment of a new battery industry group, Zhejiang Jiyao Tongxing Energy Technology Co., Ltd., on April 23 during the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show, consolidating its battery operations [2] - The new group will unify existing battery brands, including Jinzhang Battery and Shendun Short Blade Battery, under the Shen Dun Jinzhang Battery brand [2] - The company was founded on January 26, 2025, with a registered capital of 1 billion yuan, focusing on engineering and technology research, battery manufacturing, and sales [2] Group 3: Nandu Power's Hong Kong Listing Plans - Nandu Power announced on April 23 that it is planning to issue shares overseas (H-shares) and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and competitiveness [4] - The company is currently in discussions with relevant intermediaries regarding the specifics of the H-share listing, with details yet to be finalized [4] - The H-share listing will not result in changes to the controlling shareholder or actual controller of Nandu Power [4]