Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.80%. The Northbound 50 Index rose by 1.94%. The total market turnover was 10,339 billion, a decrease of 1,487 billion from the previous day, with nearly 3,800 stocks rising in the market [1]. Sector Performance - The controllable nuclear fusion, gaming, and beverage manufacturing sectors led the gains, while the innovative drug sector experienced the largest declines [2]. BYD's Market Movement - BYD, a company with a market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion, saw its stock plunge by 9%. The automotive sector in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks collectively declined, with BYD down nearly 6% in A-shares and close to 9% in Hong Kong stocks. Other companies like Seres, Great Wall Motors, and SAIC also faced declines [4][5]. - Recently, BYD announced a limited-time promotional event for its "618" sales, with 22 models seeing price cuts of up to 53,000 yuan, leading to concerns about a price war in the automotive market. Analysts noted that this could exert significant pressure on the market [7]. - Morgan Stanley indicated that BYD's announcement of price discounts signals substantial pressure in the terminal market, which may lead to increased pessimism among investors as they expect stock prices to revert to fundamentals. However, some users on the Snowball App believe that the price war could help solidify the leading position of industry leaders like BYD [8]. Controllable Nuclear Fusion Sector - The controllable nuclear fusion concept saw gains against the trend, with stocks like Hezhan Intelligent, Yongding Co., and others hitting the daily limit. Reports indicate that the U.S. plans to initiate the construction of 10 large nuclear power plants by 2030, which may accelerate domestic industry advancements [9][10]. - Analysts believe that the global market for controllable nuclear fusion is on the verge of explosion, with China entering the first tier internationally. However, challenges such as high costs and reliance on government or research projects for commercial orders remain significant hurdles [12]. Currency Impact on Stock Market - Goldman Sachs reported that for every 1% appreciation of the RMB against the USD, the Chinese stock market could rise by approximately 3%. The report highlights that the current trade tensions have shown the resilience of the RMB, which is expected to benefit the stock market due to improved corporate profit outlooks and increased foreign capital inflows [14][15]. - Historical data suggests a positive correlation between RMB appreciation and stock market performance, with a 35% average correlation since 2012. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the RMB will reach 7.20, 7.10, and 7.00 against the USD in the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively [16].

来源：雪球 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：红鑫24 核心就在于 ， 传统行业利润稳定 ， 绝对估值低 ， 分红高 ， 特别是分红复投的威力不容小视 。 标题 ， 更严谨一些应该是 ， 大部分成长股不适合大部分人 。 过去 ， 我对成长股关注多一些 ， 认为成长股的投资回报更好 ， 现在的很多人也是这样看问题的 。 所以 ， 往后原则上都不再考虑进入门槛低的阶段性成长股 。 只考虑绝对估值低 ， 分红好的 ， 优质行业的龙头公司 。 首先要优质 ， 其次是绝对估值底 ， 分红好 。 比如 ， 长电 ， 神华 ， 陕煤 ， 茅台 ， 五粮液 ， 中海油 。 比如我之前持有的 ， 人福医药 ， 派林生物 ， 赛力斯 ， 光迅科技等 。 这些公司 ， 阶段性的成长性都是不错的 ， 我也取得了一定的投资回报 。 但长期看利润稳定性不 行 ， 另外就是绝对估值偏高 ， 并且持有过程的体验真的不大好 。 实际上 ， 按照合伙生意思维 ， 大部分人会优先考虑稳定性 ， 其次才是未来的空间 。 以上公司不大行 ， 主要是几方面 ， 一是大部分商业模式不行(赚钱是否容 ...

Core Viewpoint - A strong balance sheet significantly reduces company risk and ensures free cash flow is available for equity holders rather than debt repayment [2] Group 1: Importance of Balance Sheet - Companies with low debt and strong cash flow can be acquired at low valuation multiples, providing a favorable risk-reward scenario [2] - The focus should be on identifying growth businesses that can generate substantial returns with minimal investment [2] Group 2: Buffett's Investment Philosophy - When Warren Buffett invested in Apple, the company had a low price-to-earnings ratio and a crucial business model that promised high future earnings [3] Group 3: Key Indicators for Evaluating Balance Sheets - **Asset Quality Over Size**: Preference for companies with substantial cash reserves, such as Apple and Coca-Cola, indicating risk resilience [4] - **Receivables and Inventory**: Caution against companies with receivables growing faster than revenue or high inventory levels [4] - **Fixed Assets**: Favor light-asset models like Coca-Cola over heavy-asset companies due to slower returns [5] Group 4: Assessing Debt Risks - **Short-term Debt Ratio**: High short-term debt can lead to liquidity crises [6] - **Interest Coverage Ratio**: Net profit should be at least five times the interest expense [7] - **Off-Balance-Sheet Debt**: Attention to hidden liabilities such as leases and pensions [8] Group 5: Link Between Shareholder Equity and Profitability - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: A sustained ROE above 15% indicates competitive advantage [9] - **Retained Earnings Reinvestment**: Importance of reinvesting profits for compound growth [10] Group 6: Industry Characteristics and Moat Verification - **Industry Comparison**: Different industries exhibit varying debt levels; for example, utilities have high debt but stable cash flows [11] - **Moat**: Companies can build competitive advantages through brand strength, cost advantages, or patents [12] Group 7: Financial Statement Analysis - **Free Cash Flow**: Profits must convert into free cash flow to manage risks effectively [13] - **Profit Authenticity**: Warning against profit growth without corresponding cash flow, which may indicate financial manipulation [14] Group 8: Margin of Safety and Simplification Principles - **Low Leverage**: Preference for companies with debt ratios below industry averages [15] - **Financial Transparency**: Avoidance of complex financial instruments in favor of companies with clear structures [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the "Market Earnings Ratio" (市赚率) as a valuation parameter for investment decisions, particularly in the context of high-end liquor stocks like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. It suggests that significant investment should only occur when "bloody chips" (带血筹码) appear, indicating a substantial drop in stock prices and potential for recovery [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Earnings Ratio - The "Market Earnings Ratio" is defined as PR = PE / ROE / 100, where PE is the price-to-earnings ratio and ROE is the return on equity. This ratio helps identify undervalued stocks [2][4]. - Historical analysis shows that Kweichow Moutai's market earnings ratio only exceeded 2 PR during the 2007 bull market and in 2021, indicating periods of overvaluation [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The first strategy involves investing in Kweichow Moutai at a 60% discount, Wuliangye at 50%, and Luzhou Laojiao at 40% if their performance remains stable, aiming for valuation recovery with a potential doubling of investment [4][5]. - The second strategy suggests increasing investment to 20% or 30% when stock prices and performance decline, focusing on price anchoring rather than performance metrics. For example, if Kweichow Moutai's stock price drops to 1250 yuan, it represents a 50% discount [5][6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The article discusses the potential for high returns when "bloody chips" appear, referencing past instances where significant drops led to substantial recoveries, but cautions that replicating such scenarios may be challenging [6]. - It highlights the unique high-margin characteristics of premium liquor stocks, suggesting that while there is widespread recognition of their investment value, opinions on specific pricing vary significantly [6].

哈佛被特朗普强制退学了？ 5月22日，特朗普对哈佛大学下达了一道行政禁令：禁止哈佛招收国际学生，并要求现有近7000名国际学生必须转学，否则将失去合法身份！ 目前 哈佛大学已向联邦法院提起诉讼 。 与此同时，包括香港科技大学在内的多所高校已主动向受影响学生伸出援手，开设快速录取通道、提供学术 转接支持。 过往特朗普与哈佛等高校的"积怨"较久，这不是哈佛首次被特朗普针对…… 01 特朗普清退全体哈佛留学生！ 全球排名第一的哈佛大学官网上，国际学生申请入口被替换成一则冰冷公告："请立即联系其他院校转学。" 根据哈佛大学的数据， 2024-2025学年，哈佛共有6,793名国际学生，占总学生人数的约27%，他们来自140多个国家和地区，其中大多数在攻读研 究生课程。这些学生每年贡献3.84亿美元学费，支撑3900个就业岗位。 其中本科、研究生和访问学者群体的中国学生约有800-1200人。 特朗普一纸禁令，不仅将重创常春藤学术生态，更将引发数十亿美元经济损失。法新社评论称，这是"美国学术自由史上最黑暗的的星期四"。 02 特朗普的报复 这背后是特朗普和哈佛长期"积怨"爆发。 特朗普重返白宫后，猛烈抨击以哈佛为代表的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment in ultra-high voltage (UHV) new energy base projects primarily consists of three components: UHV transmission lines, peak-shaving power sources, and new energy sources. The profitability of these projects is heavily influenced by electricity price differentials and the capacity utilization of the transmission lines [2][3][4]. Group 1: UHV Transmission Lines - UHV transmission lines are typically funded by the power grid, with some contributions from receiving provinces. The return on investment is mainly derived from transmission fees, which are fixed per kilowatt-hour. The project must achieve at least 80% of its designed capacity to avoid losses, and to meet expected returns, it should exceed 90% [2]. - The transmission fee cannot exceed the regional electricity price differential; for instance, the price difference between Shaanxi (0.34) and Anhui (0.4) is 0.06. If the transmission fee exceeds this differential, the project loses economic viability [2]. Group 2: Peak-Shaving Power Sources - Peak-shaving power sources are primarily coal-fired power plants, typically configured to 50% of the full transmission capacity, with an annual utilization of 5000 hours [3]. Group 3: New Energy Sources - New energy sources, such as wind and solar, are configured based on their annual utilization hours. For example, if the average annual utilization is 2500 hours, the installed capacity should be double that of the peak-shaving coal power [3]. Group 4: Current Issues - The uneven output of new energy sources and the inadequacy of the current pricing mechanism make it challenging for new energy base projects to be profitable. To ensure the design return of new energy projects, it is necessary to reduce the curtailment of wind and solar energy, which in turn affects the utilization hours of peak-shaving coal power and the transmission volume of UHV lines [4]. - If the profitability of peak-shaving coal power and UHV lines is to be maintained, a significant increase in wind and solar capacity is required. This would lead to higher curtailment rates for wind and solar projects, and under the current pricing mechanism, electricity prices are likely to decline, making it difficult for new energy projects to be profitable [4]. Group 5: Energy Storage Consideration - While energy storage could theoretically smooth out the output of wind and solar energy, the question remains: who will bear the costs? [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth of fixed income plus (固收+) products, particularly from Tianhong Fund, and emphasizes the importance of controlling drawdowns in investment strategies during market fluctuations [2][3][6]. Group 1: Growth of Fixed Income Plus Products - The equity market's strength often correlates with the significant development of fixed income plus products, as evidenced by Tianhong's nearly doubled product offerings in 2022 compared to 2021, which was a peak in the previous bull market [3]. - Tianhong's fixed income plus funds have shown varying annual returns over the past decade, with a notable average return of 14.88% in 2015 and a decline to -3.59% in 2022, highlighting the volatility in performance [4][8]. Group 2: Importance of Drawdown Control - The ability to control drawdowns in fixed income plus products becomes increasingly critical during market transitions, as demonstrated by Tianhong's only negative annual return occurring in 2022, when the average return for the entire market was -3.15% [6]. - The article stresses that for investors, the primary goal is capital preservation and achieving better returns than traditional savings, making drawdown control a priority over potential returns [6][11]. Group 3: Assessment and Evaluation Framework - The assessment of fixed income plus products should focus on the overall performance rather than solely on the investment methodology or the fund manager's capabilities [9][10]. - Tianhong's evaluation framework includes key indicators such as risk-adjusted returns (e.g., Sharpe Ratio), maximum drawdown control, and the time taken to recover from drawdowns, which are essential for maintaining a robust investment strategy [12][13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that Return on Equity (ROE) is a more critical indicator for stock selection than growth, as highlighted by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger in their shareholder letters [2][3]. Group 1: Importance of ROE - Companies that can maintain high ROE typically possess long-term competitive advantages, often referred to as "moats," which are essential for future performance [3]. - From a practical investment perspective, in the absence of secondary market pricing, the only goal for shareholders is the return on equity, which will approximate the long-term return rate [3]. - The notion that a lack of growth leads to stagnant stock valuations overlooks the fact that sustainable competitive advantages make it difficult for companies to remain stagnant [3][4]. Group 2: Growth and Valuation - Even in industries perceived to be stagnant, such as liquor and home appliances, companies like Moutai and Meidi have continued to achieve growth and increasing profits over the past decade [3][4]. - The existence of an enduring industry allows for moderate growth driven by improved production efficiency and inflation, which benefits companies in competitive positions [4]. - The ability to predict high growth is complex, as past performance does not guarantee future results, and many high-growth companies have faced sudden downturns [4]. Group 3: Pricing and Investment Strategy - The key to profitability is not merely the increase in valuation but the price at which investments are made; for instance, Gree's PE ratio increased from 6x in 2014 to 17x in 2018, demonstrating that low growth can still yield significant returns if purchased at a low price [5]. - Long-term holders of companies like Moutai have achieved returns close to the net asset return rate, despite the company never trading at 1x PB, indicating that brand and market position are critical value drivers not reflected on the balance sheet [7][8]. - High growth does not always correlate with high ROE, as many companies pursuing aggressive growth strategies do not achieve favorable economic outcomes [8].

以下文章来源于二马由之 ，作者二马由之 二马由之 . 用逻辑讲投资 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 二马由之 来源：雪球 价值投资者应该何时卖出股票呢 ？ 常规的说法是 1 、 涨多了 ， 股票贵了 ， 因此高抛 ； 3 、 公司基本面有超预期的负面变化 ， 因此卖出 。 俗称割肉 。 那么价值投资会不会因为公司股票下跌而止损呢 ？ 是否因为股票下跌而选择止损一直是区分价值 投资和非价值投资的一个重要标准 。 这里我说一个观点 ， 价值投资者只割肉不止损 。 趋势投资者 ， 技术分析者会因为股票下跌而卖出 ， 这本身是他们投资体系的一部分 。 因此 ， 这类投资者因为下跌而止损是很正常的行为 。 但是价值投资的底层逻辑是低买 ， 高卖 。 因此 ， 因为股票下跌了 ， 更便宜了而卖出是违背了 价值投资的基本原则的 。 那么价值投资者能不能因为股票下跌 ， 而不是基本面恶化卖出股票呢 ？ 能 。 对于价值投资者来 说 ， 这个行为叫做割肉 。 价值投资者为什么会因为股票下跌 ， 而非基本面变化而割肉呢 ？ 其原因是 ， 当股票上涨时 ， 一些人认为自 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the benefits of systematic investment plans (SIPs) or dollar-cost averaging, arguing that it helps manage investment risks and emotions during market fluctuations [2][5][22]. Group 1: Problems Addressed by SIPs - SIPs allow investors to buy regardless of market price fluctuations, preventing the pitfalls of trying to time the market [5][6]. - Investors often hesitate to buy during market downturns, leading to missed opportunities and potential losses [9][12]. - SIPs help manage emotional responses to market volatility, reducing the likelihood of making impulsive decisions during market lows [13][14]. Group 2: Personal Investment Experience - The author shares personal experiences with SIPs, highlighting a case where the investment initially faced a -24% loss but later recovered to -2.9% due to continued investments during market lows [15][19]. - The article discusses specific funds, such as the Huatai-PB Southeast Asia Technology ETF and Manulife India Equity Fund, showcasing their performance and recovery from losses [16][20]. Group 3: Importance of Selecting the Right Assets - The article stresses the necessity of choosing long-term upward-trending assets for SIPs to ensure positive outcomes over time [22][24]. - Historical examples, such as gold and the Nasdaq 100 index, illustrate that long-term investments can yield profits even when purchased at market peaks [26][27]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy - Viewing SIPs as a method of accumulating wealth rather than short-term trading can enhance commitment to the investment strategy [28].