Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, but indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed [2] - The current federal funds rate is in the range of 3% to 4%, which is close to the neutral rate estimated by the committee members [2] - There are concerns regarding the labor market, with signs of a slowdown complicating the economic outlook [2] Group 2 - The decline in the U.S. labor market is attributed to a significant drop in labor supply, including a decrease in labor force participation and reduced immigration [3] - High-tech companies, including Amazon, are laying off employees or reducing hiring, raising questions about the impact of AI investments on the labor market [3][4] - Amazon plans to automate 75% of its operations by 2033, potentially avoiding the hiring of over 600,000 employees, which could have profound effects on blue-collar employment [3][4] Group 3 - The technology sector is experiencing significant layoffs, with major companies like Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Intel announcing large-scale job cuts due to increased efficiency from generative AI [4] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the potential impact of AI on employment growth, although initial unemployment claims have not yet shown significant changes [4][5] - Some analysts believe that the current downturn in non-farm employment data is not directly related to the rise of AI investments, as AI's penetration in various industries remains low [5]

Group 1: Core Views - The overall performance of the US economy is stable, but both of the central bank's targets face risks of deterioration [1][20] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates is seen as a move to support employment demand while easing inflationary pressures [20] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy directions, with some members advocating for a pause in rate cuts [5][7] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy Direction - The Federal Reserve has observed rising repo rates and federal funds rates, leading to a decision to halt the balance sheet reduction starting December 1 [4] - The current policy rate is set between 3.75% and 4.0%, with a recent cut of 25 basis points [1][7] - The committee's decision reflects a mix of opinions on the economic outlook, with some members calling for a more cautious approach [5][9] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Situation - The September CPI data indicates inflation is close to the 2% target, but the absence of PPI data complicates the assessment of overall inflation trends [11][12] - Employment market dynamics are influenced by a significant reduction in new worker supply and a decrease in labor demand, leading to a unique equilibrium in the job market [12][14] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about the potential long-term impacts of tariffs on inflation, viewing them as a one-time effect rather than a persistent issue [11][15] Group 4: Asset Bubble and Macro Stability - Investment in data centers and AI is robust, with companies believing these investments will enhance productivity, indicating a disconnect from interest rate sensitivity [15][17] - The Federal Reserve does not assess the appropriateness of asset market valuations but focuses on the overall stability of the financial system [16][18] - Concerns about potential asset bubbles are rising, with the market's current enthusiasm reflecting a complex interplay of economic factors [20][19] Group 5: Federal Reserve's Independence - The reappointment process for regional Federal Reserve presidents is ongoing, with no immediate concerns raised by the current leadership [19] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is perceived as fragile, especially in light of political pressures and the potential influence of future leadership changes [19][20]

就在本周的降息决策里，分歧已经摆到明面上：堪萨斯城联储主席杰弗里·施密德直接反对降息，美联 储理事斯蒂芬·米兰却觉得降得不够，得再加大幅度。合着这委员会对进一步降息的意愿已经明显降 温，这拉扯感简直没谁了。 美联储这波操作直接把市场看懵了！12月到底要不要再降息？官员们吵得不可开交，鲍威尔一句话浇凉 投资者期待，主打一个悬念拉满。 作为一把手的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，周三直接亮明态度：12月能不能来第三轮降息，现在真说不 准。之前不少投资者还盼着降息顺顺利利，结果鲍威尔一盆冷水泼下来，强调最终得看后续经济数据的 脸色。 关键矛盾还在就业上：为啥就业增长放缓？官员们吵来吵去没共识，是移民少了？劳动力参与率下降 了？还是市场需求真的疲软了？更麻烦的是，政府关门导致就业数据没法按时发布，给决策又添了层不 确定性，纯属雪上加霜。 可另一边的风险也不小：高利率的影响慢慢累积，再加上贸易政策和移民政策调整，最后很可能冲击劳 动力市场。要是现在停了降息，失业率说不定就得往上走，鲍威尔都透露了，部分就业指标显示新增岗 位几乎快降到零了。 连续两次降息后，美联储利率已经快到中性水平，就是那种既不刺激经济也不抑制经济的状态，这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates faces significant opposition from several officials, indicating that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed [1][2][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack expressed their preference to maintain current interest rates, emphasizing the need for clear evidence of inflation decline or labor market cooling before supporting further cuts [1][3]. - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid opposed the recent rate cut, citing a balanced labor market and persistent inflation concerns [1][3]. - The divergence in opinions among Fed officials highlights a contentious debate on monetary policy direction leading up to the December meeting [1][2][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the statements from hawkish officials, market expectations for a December rate cut significantly decreased, with the probability dropping from nearly 92% to below 69% [7]. - The futures market reflects a shift in sentiment regarding the likelihood of further rate cuts, indicating increased uncertainty among investors [7]. Group 3: Neutral Rate Assessment - Disagreements over the assessment of the neutral interest rate, which neither stimulates nor restricts economic growth, have become a focal point of the debate among Fed officials [4][5]. - Current estimates of the neutral rate range from slightly above 2.5% to slightly below 4%, contributing to differing views on the necessity of further rate cuts [4][5]. Group 4: Balance Sheet Reduction - The Fed announced it will cease its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) on December 1, which has been ongoing for three years, in response to rising short-term interest rates [10]. - Logan supports this decision, believing it will alleviate financing pressures, while also suggesting that the Fed may need to purchase assets if recent increases in repo rates are not temporary [10].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4% as expected[3] - The voting showed increased division among committee members, with one member supporting a 50 basis point cut and another opposing any cut[3] - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction starting December 1, 2025, after continuing to reduce by $5 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in MBS in October and November[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar index rose, while the S&P 500 and COMEX gold prices fell sharply following the announcement[2] - Powell indicated that the current interest rate is near the neutral rate, estimated between 3%-4%[3] - Recent economic data suggests that U.S. economic activity may be slightly better than expected, driven by stronger consumer spending[5] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Concerns - Powell noted that inflation remains a concern, with the latest CPI data showing slightly softer inflation than expected[5] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, but Powell emphasized that employment risks are skewed to the downside[5] - The Fed is cautious about potential persistent inflation and the impact of tariffs on prices[5] Group 4: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - Following the October meeting, the probability of a rate cut in December dropped from 91% to 68% according to CME FedWatch[5] - The Fed may not continue to lower rates due to ongoing inflation pressures and the current policy rate being closer to neutral[5] - Powell's comments suggest that the pace of future rate cuts may change, reflecting differing views within the committee[5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from a "preventive rate cut" approach to a "wait-and-see" stance, leading to increased uncertainty in short-term policy paths [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting, amidst a complex backdrop due to the U.S. government shutdown affecting key employment data [2] - The decision reflects a proactive approach to mitigate potential job market downturns, despite stable private sector employment indicators [2][3] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are growing, with some members advocating for more aggressive cuts while others suggest pausing [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The market's expectation for a December rate cut has decreased from 82.4% to 63.8% following the October meeting, indicating a shift in sentiment [1] - The upcoming December decision will heavily depend on employment and inflation data post-government shutdown, with a focus on whether job market indicators show significant improvement [1][3] - Recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions may alleviate inflationary pressures from tariffs, presenting a potential positive factor for the economy [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve announced it will stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, as liquidity tightening signals have emerged in the U.S. money market [4] - Since the initiation of balance sheet reduction in June 2022, the Fed's balance sheet has contracted by $2.2 trillion, reducing its GDP ratio from 35% to approximately 21% [4] - The dollar index has shown signs of a rebound, and with the Fed's hawkish signals, market volatility risks are expected to increase, potentially impacting metal prices and emerging market assets [5]

转载自 申万宏源宏观 ，仅供参考。 10月例会决议:降息25BP,缩表将于12月结束 10月例会声明认为,今年通胀有所上升,就业增长放 缓;10月例会下调FFR目标区间至[3.75%-4.00%],理- 事米兰、堪萨斯联储主席施密德投下反对票,前者倾 向降息50BP,后者倾向不降息;10月例会决定将于12 月起停止缩表。 | 首体 内容 | 2025年10月 | 2025年9月 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 增长 现有指标显示,经济活动扩张速度适中(moderate pace) | | | | | 上半年经济活动出现放缓 (moderated) | | 物价 | 自年初以来有所上升(moved up),并某种程度上 (somewhat) 保持高位 | 有所上升(moved up),并某种程度上(somewhat)保持 = 同V | | 二六年 | 保持低位;近期更多指标与这些进展相符 | 今年就业增长放缓, 失业率小幅上行 (edged up) 但截止8月 就业增长放缓, 失业率小幅上行 (edged up) 但保持低位 (remains low) | | 风险 | 的风险(both s ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - Although there are strong differences within the Federal Reserve, and the threshold for a 12 - month interest rate cut is significantly raised, the three interest rate cuts implied by the September dot - plot within the year are still the benchmark scenario, and there is still a high possibility of an interest rate cut in December [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs How to understand "12 - month interest rate cut is far from a certainty"? - **Internal division in the Fed**: After recent interest rate cuts, the policy rate has entered the estimated neutral interest rate range (2.6% - 3.9%). There is a growing call within the Fed to "wait at least one cycle" to observe the effects of previous policies. There are significant differences among Fed officials in economic forecasts and risk aversion, resulting in strong division. There were two - way dissenting votes at this meeting, and 9 officials in the September dot - plot had relatively high thresholds for further collective compromise in December [2] - **Uncertainty of data suspension**: Due to government data suspension, the Fed's information acquisition is affected, and high data uncertainty is a reason for cautious and postponed actions [2] - **Stable high - frequency employment data**: High - frequency employment data is stable, showing a "very gradual cooling," providing some "comfort" for policymakers. However, the meeting statement indicates that the risk of employment decline has increased in recent months [2] - **Optimistic attitude towards inflation**: Tariffs are the main driver of current commodity inflation, with a mild impact. Excluding tariffs, core PCE inflation is expected to be between 2.3% - 2.4%, close to the 2% target. Housing inflation has continued to decline, and economic and employment market slowdowns help service inflation decline [2] What details are worth noting about the Fed's halt to balance - sheet reduction? - **Stopping balance - sheet reduction**: When the bank reserve scale is slightly higher than the "sufficient reserve" level, balance - sheet reduction should stop. Recent money - market signals indicate that the reserve level has reached this standard [2] - **Reshaping the portfolio structure**: After the balance - sheet reduction officially ends on December 1, the principal of the Fed's matured Treasury bonds will be rolled over through auctions, and the principal of MBS will be reinvested in short - term Treasury bonds in the secondary market, adjusting the balance - sheet structure to be mainly Treasury bonds [2] - **Future balance - sheet expansion**: After freezing the scale, non - reserve liabilities will cause the reserve balance to decline. In the future, the reserve balance needs to gradually increase again, and the balance - sheet structure will be adjusted to "closer to the duration distribution of the Treasury market" [6] How does the Fed view other current economic hotspots? - **Discrepancy between strong consumption and weak employment**: Strong consumption expenditure is the main support for moderate economic expansion, but the labor market has cooled significantly. This is mainly due to the K - shaped consumption structure. High - income groups increase spending, while low - income groups struggle. The Fed Chair's attitude towards whether the stock - market rise drives the K - shaped consumption structure is relatively neutral [6] - **AI boom**: AI investment is an important driving force for economic growth, but consumption expenditure is the core support. The overall economy has resilience even if AI investment contracts. Attention should be paid to the risk of AI - related layoffs, but it is not currently reflected in employment data. AI investment is insensitive to interest rates, and the current situation is different from the 1990s dot - com bubble [6] - **Rising sub - prime credit default rate**: The rising sub - prime credit default rate has not yet evolved into a widespread credit risk, but the Fed will continue to closely monitor it to ensure the risk does not expand [6]

美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔在10月29日联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后的新闻发布会上，强烈警告市场勿猜测美联储将在12月的下次会议中降息。 美联储内部对此意见分歧显著，当天降息决定遭遇的反对票便是直接证明。鲍威尔将当前政策管理比作"在雾中驾驶"，并提及未来可能放缓降息步伐。 值得注意的是，美联储在当天召开的第二次会议上，已决定连续第二次降息0.25个百分点，而这一结果此前已被市场充分消化。真正对市场产生冲击的，是 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的表态。 他透露，FOMC内部对于12月是否进一步降息存在重大分歧，并强调该举措"并非板上钉钉"。他还表示："有时，对进一步降息采取更谨慎的态度是明智之 举。" 与上次会议相同，鲍威尔此次仍将降息决定描述为"为管控就业形势恶化风险"，但他补充道"未来政策行动会有所不同"，明确释放出"下一步举措并非对前 次行动的延续"的信号。 此外，美国政府停摆导致经济数据匮乏，也对进一步降息形成阻碍。由于就业统计数据及其他关键经济数据暂停发布，美联储只能依赖各州失业保险数据与 私营部门数据开展分析。 鲍威尔对此表达担忧："我们能察觉到经济正发生一些重要变化，但难以深入掌握经济运行的具体细节。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to maintain interest rates but indicated a potential for future rate hikes if economic conditions align with expectations, shifting investor focus towards a possible rate increase as early as December [1] Economic Outlook - The BOJ's economic forecast remains largely unchanged from the previous report in July, with a slight increase in the likelihood of the baseline scenario materializing [2] - The BOJ is closely monitoring the impact of trade policies on the overseas economy and price trends, highlighting significant uncertainty in this area [2] Inflation and Wages - Core inflation is showing a moderate increase while food inflation is gradually easing; the BOJ is focused on the synchronization of wage and price increases [2] - Current wage growth is modest, but high prices for essential goods are pressuring non-durable consumption and service sectors [3] Interest Rate Policy - The BOJ has not predetermined any stance regarding the timing and feasibility of interest rate hikes, emphasizing a data-driven approach [2][4] - The central bank is committed to observing data trends before making adjustments to monetary policy [4] Currency and Trade - The BOJ is cautious about commenting on short-term fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate, emphasizing the importance of stability based on economic fundamentals [4] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is being monitored, with indications that risks may be lower than previously anticipated [2]