Group 1: Overall Report Information - Report Name: Agricultural Products Morning Report 2025 - 09 - 16 [1] - Report Team: Wukuang Futures Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Protein Meal Core Information - On Monday, US soybeans fell slightly. Sino - US negotiations are ongoing in Spain, and soybean imports are undetermined. Demand concerns pressured US soybeans. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell 20 yuan/ton, with the East China basis at 01 - 110 remaining unchanged. Domestic soybean meal trading was fair, and提货 was at a high level. Last week, downstream inventory days increased by 0.42 days to 9.22 days. According to MYSTEEL, 2.36 million tons of soybeans were crushed last week, and 2.38 million tons are expected to be crushed this week. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were almost flat week - on - week and at a high level compared to the same period in recent years [3]. - In the US soybean产区, rainfall will be normal in the next two weeks. In August, the soybean good - to - excellent rate declined due to drought, but the USDA only lowered the yield per acre by 0.1 bushels and increased the harvested area by 200,000 acres. In Brazil, the premium declined and then rebounded. Overall, the cost of imported soybeans is supported by the undervaluation of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and Brazilian planting - season trading, but it also faces pressure from the global protein raw material supply surplus, the potential continuous expansion of Brazil's planting area, and the short - term supply surplus if Sino - US relations ease [3]. Trading Strategy - The cost of soybean imports has recently maintained a weak and stable trend. Pay attention to the cost performance after stabilization. The domestic soybean meal market's提货 has been at a high level. It is expected that the spot side may start destocking in September, supporting the oil mill's crushing profit. In the future, focus on whether the improvement of the US soybean situation and Brazilian planting - season trading can marginally improve the current supply - exceeding - demand situation. Regarding the crushing profit, focus on whether the提货 level can be sustained. Trade soybean meal mainly through range - bound operations and wait for a driving factor to choose a direction [5]. Group 3: Oils Important Information - According to a Malaysian independent inspection agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10 decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, and increased by 2.6% in the first 15 days. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 10, 2025, decreased by 3.17% compared to the same period last month. - As of the week ending September 7, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 1.5% to 47,200 tons compared to the previous week. As of September 7, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 516,200 tons. - As of September 12, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2512 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week, a decline of 0.01%. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 641,500 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from last week, an increase of 3.58%, and an increase of 128,000 tons compared to 513,500 tons last year, an increase of 24.92% [7]. Market Performance - On Monday, the three major domestic oils fluctuated. The stable demand for oils in importing countries, low inventories in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply in Indonesia provided continuous positive factors. Foreign capital increased long positions in oils on Monday. Domestic spot basis was stable at a low level. The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou was 01 - 80 (0) yuan/ton, the basis of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 09 + 210 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in East China was 01 + 110 (0) yuan/ton [8]. Trading Strategy - Low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the draft US biodiesel policy boosting soybean oil demand, the insufficient potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to the continuous growth of biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the central price of oils. Oils are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose real - world supply and demand but tight expected supply. Before the inventories in consuming and producing areas are fully accumulated and the negative feedback of demand in consuming areas does not appear, view them as oscillating and strengthening in the medium term. Currently, the valuation is relatively high. Observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the idea of buying on dips and stabilization [10]. Group 4: Sugar Key Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract of Zheng sugar was 5,549 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5,890 - 5,940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,730 - 5,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; processing sugar mills' mainstream quotation range was 5,950 - 6,090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zheng sugar's main contract (sr2601) was 341 yuan/ton. - The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) maintained its second - round production forecast for India's 2025/26 sugar - crushing season at 34.9 million tons. S&P Global Commodity Insights' survey of 11 analysts showed that the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of August is expected to increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons. The expected sugar - cane crushing volume is also expected to increase by 9.5% to 49.5 million tons compared to the same period last year. On the other hand, the sugar content per kilogram of sugar cane is expected to decrease by 4.1% to 149.48 kilograms per ton of sugar cane [12]. Trading Strategy - Domestically, due to increased import supply, poor production and sales data in the main producing areas in August, and the expected increase in production in Guangxi in the new crushing season. Abroad, the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region increased significantly year - on - year in the first half of August. Both the domestic and foreign markets are bearish. The general view on sugar prices remains bearish. The downward space depends on the foreign market. If Brazil's production continues to increase from August to October, the raw - sugar price still has room to fall, and correspondingly, domestic sugar prices may hit new lows [13]. Group 5: Cotton Key Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract of Zheng cotton was 13,885 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,249 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of CCIndex 3128B - Zheng cotton's main contract (CF2601) was 1,364 yuan/ton. - According to Mysteel, as of the week ending September 12, the spinning mill's operating rate was 66.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 4.3 percentage points from the same period last year; the weaving mill's operating rate was 38%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 14.4 percentage points from the same period last year; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 460,000 tons from the same period last year. According to the USDA's September supply - and - demand report, the global production forecast for the 2025/26 season was increased by 230,000 tons to 25.62 million tons, with China's production forecast increased by 220,000 tons to 7.08 million tons and India's increased by 110,000 tons to 5.23 million tons. The US and Brazilian production forecasts remained unchanged. In terms of consumption, the global forecast was increased by 180,000 tons to 25.87 million tons, and the ending inventory was decreased by 170,000 tons to 15.93 million tons, mainly due to the decrease in the beginning inventory by 220,000 tons and the increase in the consumption forecast [16]. Trading Strategy - Fundamentally, the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season has arrived, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has begun to gradually increase, but it is still lower than the same period in previous years. On the other hand, due to the lack of new supply, the current domestic cotton inventory is at a historically low level, but there is an expected increase in production in the long term. Bullish and bearish factors are intertwined. Technically, the short - term Zheng cotton price rose and then fell, facing significant selling pressure, but there is also some support below. The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate [17][18]. Group 6: Eggs Spot Information - The national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main producing areas increased by 0.04 yuan to 3.67 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.6 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.16 yuan to 3.6 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, market demand is normal, and industry players purchase and sell as needed. However, the sales volume varies between high - and low - price areas. It is expected that most of the national egg prices will be stable today, with a few rising or falling [20]. Trading Strategy - The supply base is still large, and there is a large accumulation of cold - storage eggs. After a short - term increase, the spot price is still expected to fall back, but the supply pressure will decrease marginally after a large - scale culling of laying hens. Moreover, after the temperature drops, the conditions for market inventory accumulation improve. If the spot price does not fall as expected under the consensus expectation, it is easy to trigger reverse inventory building, thereby limiting the decline of the spot and futures prices. It is recommended to mainly observe. When the positions increase significantly after a price decline, consider going long on the far - month contract appropriately [21]. Group 7: Pigs Spot Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally fell. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.09 yuan to 13.36 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.04 yuan to 12.87 yuan/kg. Farmers' enthusiasm for selling pigs is high, the market supply of pigs is abundant, demand is average, and slaughterhouses are cautious in purchasing, providing limited support for pig prices. It is expected that pig prices will be stable with some decreases today [23]. Trading Strategy - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is large, and the supply situation in September remains bearish. However, potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state purchases are also accumulating. The spot price may fluctuate within a narrow range and lacks the basis for a large - scale increase or decrease. The market has already priced in the large supply of pigs in advance, and the futures price, especially the near - month contract, has continuously fallen and is at a discount to the spot price. It is not cost - effective to short aggressively. The strategy should focus on the possibility of a rebound at a low level due to policies and consumption factors and short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Continue the far - month reverse - spread strategy [24].

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a majority of contracts rise, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural commodities market [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Raw sugar futures increased by 1.08%, closing at 15.96 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures rose by 2.50%, reaching $7425.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures surged by 5.01%, ending at 416.75 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures experienced a slight decline of 0.01%, closing at 66.82 cents per pound [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - CBOT soybean oil may decline further due to seasonal decrease in consumption. The basis of spot soybean oil will have limited short - term fluctuations. - Malaysian crude palm oil futures are in a consolidation phase. After the trend becomes clear, Dalian palm oil futures will choose a new direction. There is a risk of downward break - through. - The USDA's September supply - demand report is neutral to bearish. The overall rebound space of the oils and fats market is limited [1]. Sugar - The raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern between 15 - 17 cents per pound. The white sugar futures may stabilize around 5500 due to the raw sugar rebound, but the rebound space is limited. A short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [4]. Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range. After the new cotton is listed in the long term, prices may face pressure [5]. Eggs - Egg prices may rise to the annual high due to increased demand, but the high inventory and cold - storage egg release will limit the increase. There is a risk of a slight decline in local egg prices after the traders' replenishment ends [9]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market will gradually shift to a supply - demand loosening situation, with the futures oscillating weakly. In the medium term, the weak situation remains unchanged, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [11]. Hogs - The spot price of hogs has limited room for further decline. After a short - term rebound, there may still be a risk of decline. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [15]. Meal - The domestic concerns about future supply are gradually alleviated, and the spot is loose. However, due to cost support, the decline space of domestic meal is limited. The cost support for meal in the fourth quarter is still strong [17]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Spot Prices**: Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8610 yuan, up 0.82%; Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 9320 yuan, up 1.08%; Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil is 9940 yuan, up 1.01% [1]. - **Futures Prices**: Y2601 soybean oil futures are 8018 yuan, down 0.10%; P2601 palm oil futures are 9062 yuan, down 0.57%; OI601 rapeseed oil futures are 9496 yuan, down 0.53% [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Y2601 soybean oil is 592 yuan, up 15.18%; the basis of P2601 palm oil is 258 yuan, up 143.40%; the basis of OI601 rapeseed oil is 544 yuan [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of SR2601 sugar futures is 5540 yuan, down 0.29%; the price of SR2605 sugar futures is 5517 yuan, down 0.13% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning is 5890 yuan, unchanged; the price in Kunming is 5855 yuan, up 0.09% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%; the cumulative national sugar sales is 1000 million tons, up 12.87% [4]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of CF2605 cotton futures is 13820 yuan, up 0.18%; the price of CF2601 cotton futures is 13860 yuan, up 0.18% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15182 yuan, down 0.03%; the CC Index of 3128B cotton is 15248 yuan, down 0.01% [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory is 148.17 million tons, down 18.6%; the industrial inventory is 89.23 million tons, down 3.5% [5]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of JD11 egg futures is 3040 yuan per 500KG, down 0.13%; the price of JD10 egg futures is 3023 yuan per 500KG, down 0.66% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price is 3.54 yuan per jin, up 1.92% [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicks is 2.60 yuan per chick, down 13.33%; the price of culled hens is 4.61 yuan per jin, down 0.22% [8]. Corn - **Futures Market**: The price of C2511 corn futures is 2197 yuan, down 0.23%; the price of CS2511 corn starch futures is 2474 yuan, down 0.12% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan, unchanged; the Changchun spot price of corn starch is 2560 yuan, unchanged [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning is 571, down 29.16%; the import profit is 491 yuan, down 2.73% [11]. Hogs - **Futures Market**: The price of LH2511 hog futures is 13255 yuan, down 0.49%; the price of LH2601 hog futures is 13690 yuan, down 0.29% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The Henan spot price is 13450 yuan, down 50 yuan; the Shandong spot price is 13550 yuan, up 50 yuan [15]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 148973, up 0.65%; the self - breeding profit per pig per week is 17 yuan, down 68.02% [15]. Meal - **Futures Market**: The price of M2601 soybean meal futures is 3079 yuan, down 0.29%; the price of RM2601 rapeseed meal futures is 2531 yuan, down 1.40% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 3050 yuan, up 0.66%; the price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2650 yuan, up 0.76% [17]. - **Industry Situation**: The soybean meal inventory is 29065 lots, up 5.4%; the rapeseed meal inventory is 10383 lots, unchanged [17].

Group 1: General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils & fats, meals, hogs, corn, cotton, eggs, and sugar, with data as of September 12, 2025 [1][3][6][8][11][13][17] Group 2: Industry-Specific Investment Ratings - There is no information provided on industry investment ratings in the given reports Group 3: Core Views Oils & Fats - For palm oil, closely monitor if the futures price can stabilize above 4,400 ringgit. A break below may open new downside. Domestically, short - term support is at 9,000 yuan. For soybean oil, the CBOT December contract may briefly fall below 50 cents if CBOT soybeans decline further. On the domestic front, downstream demand is increasing, but supply is still ample, and the January contract of Dalian soybean oil may trade in a narrow range before the USDA report [1] Meals - The downside for meal prices is limited. In the fourth quarter, domestic soybean supply is not abundant, and cost support for meals remains strong. The market awaits the USDA September supply - demand report, with expectations of a lower yield but high production [3] Hogs - Spot prices have limited downside as they are at a low level. Demand is slowly rising, but it's uncertain if it can absorb the supply. The market may see a short - term rebound but has potential for further decline due to large supply pressure [6] Corn - The market is divided regionally. In the short term, supply and demand are both weak, and the futures price is under pressure. In the medium term, it is expected to remain weak [8] Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may trade in a range. In the long term, they may face pressure when new cotton hits the market [11] Eggs - Egg prices may rebound in early September but with limited upside. A decline risk increases after the second and third rounds of restocking end [14] Sugar - Raw sugar supply pressure is high, and it is expected to remain weak. However, the upside for the sugar - ethanol ratio in Brazil is limited. The sugar market sentiment is weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate [17] Group 4: Industry - Specific Data Summaries Oils & Fats - **Soybean Oil**: Spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.35% to 8,540 yuan; futures price (Y2601) increased by 0.07% to 8,568 yuan; basis (Y2601) decreased by 11.69% to 272 yuan [1] - **Palm Oil**: Spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.54% to 9,220 yuan; futures price (P2601) remained unchanged at 9,446 yuan; basis (P2601) decreased by 28.41% to - 226 yuan; import profit increased by 18.57% to - 195 yuan; warehouse receipts increased by 5.72% to 1,570 [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.30% to 9,940 yuan; futures price (OI601) increased by 0.87% to 10,023 yuan; basis (OI601) decreased by 207.41% to - 83 yuan [1] Meals - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,030 yuan; futures price (M2601) increased by 0.72% to 3,088 yuan; basis (M2601) decreased by 61.11% to - 58 yuan; Brazilian October shipment crush margin increased by 47.2% to 53 yuan; warehouse receipts increased by 6.4% to 27,565 [3] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2,630 yuan; futures price (RM2601) increased by 1.34% to 2,567 yuan; basis (RM2601) decreased by 35.05% to 63 yuan; Canadian November shipment crush margin increased by 2.68% to 881 yuan; warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,383 [3] Hogs - **Futures**: The price of Live Hog 2511 increased by 0.04% to 13,320 yuan; Live Hog 2601 decreased by 0.07% to 13,730 yuan; the 11 - 1 spread increased by 3.53% to - 410 yuan; the main contract's open interest increased by 0.31% to 75,953; warehouse receipts remained at 428 [6] - **Spot**: Prices in Henan decreased by 0.37% to 13,500 yuan; in Shandong remained at 13,500 yuan; in Sichuan remained at 13,350 yuan; in Liaoning remained at 13,100 yuan; in Guangdong remained at 14,290 yuan; in Hunan increased by 0.76% to 13,210 yuan; in Hebei decreased by 0.74% to 13,400 yuan [6] Corn - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2511 increased by 0.23% to 2,202 yuan; the basis decreased by 4.42% to 108 yuan; the 11 - 3 spread increased by 45.45% to 16 yuan; the south - north trade profit increased by 11.36% to 49 yuan; import profit increased by 0.20% to 504 yuan; the number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 76.37% to 806; open interest increased by 0.84% to 1,581,422; warehouse receipts decreased by 0.16% to 51,874 [8] - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2511 decreased by 0.44% to 2,477 yuan; the basis increased by 15.28% to 83 yuan; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 42.11% to - 27 yuan; the starch - corn spread decreased by 5.50% to 275 yuan; Shandong's processing profit increased by 48.78% to - 42 yuan; open interest increased by 4.83% to 295,207; warehouse receipts increased by 5.78% to 9,500 [8] Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2605 decreased by 0.18% to 13,795 yuan; Cotton 2601 decreased by 0.14% to 13,835 yuan; the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 14.29% to - 40 yuan; the main contract's open interest decreased by 0.47% to 502,476; warehouse receipts decreased by 3.06% to 5,159 [11] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.16% to 12,186 yuan; the CC Index 3128B decreased by 0.24% to 15,249 yuan; the FC Index M 1% increased by 0.26% to 13,353 yuan [11] Eggs - The price of the Egg 11 contract increased by 0.79% to 3,044 yuan; the Egg 10 contract increased by 0.79% to 3,043 yuan; the spot price in the production area increased by 0.94% to 3.47 yuan per catty; the basis increased by 1.78% to 426 yuan; the 11 - 10 spread remained unchanged at 1 [13] Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 increased by 0.38%; Sugar 2605 increased by 0.31% to 5,524 yuan; the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.57% to 15.80 cents per pound; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 14.29% to 32 yuan; the main contract's open interest increased by 0.62% to 391,605; warehouse receipts decreased by 0.28% to 11,739 [17] - **Spot**: The price in Nanning increased by 0.17% to 5,890 yuan; in Kunming increased by 0.26% to 5,850 yuan; the Nanning basis decreased by 1.88% to 366 yuan; the Kunming basis decreased by 0.61% to 326 yuan [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Recommendations**: Soybean (★★★), Soybean Meal (★★★), Palm Oil (★★★), Egg (★★★), Corn (★★★), Live Pig (★★★) [1] - **Neutral Recommendations**: Rapeseed Meal (★☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products show different trends, with some in a state of supply - demand imbalance and others affected by policies, weather, and trade negotiations. Different trading strategies are recommended for different products [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean - The domestic soybean futures main contract rebounded from a low. The market is concerned about the acquisition of new - season soybeans. The auction of soybeans by CGS will continue this Friday, and the reserve price is expected to be lowered. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the harvest is expected to be good this year [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Soybean futures are in a range - bound pattern, and domestic soybean meal is stable with a weak bias. The overall supply in the fourth quarter is okay, but there may be a shortage in the first quarter of next year if Sino - US trade is not resolved. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and a low - buying strategy is recommended. The USDA will release a supply - demand report on September 13, and the market expects a reduction in soybean yield [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The prices of palm oil and soybean oil rebounded after a short - term decline. The domestic situation is weak, but in the medium - term, palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle. In the long - term, bio - diesel policies and palm oil tree - age issues are expected to support prices, and a low - buying strategy can be considered [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures rose today, and the external market stabilized. The import of oilseeds is expected to be tight in China, and North American oilseed prices are under pressure. The price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is relatively high, and the demand for rapeseed products is lackluster. The futures prices may rise slightly in the short - term [6] Corn - Corn futures were narrowly fluctuating and stabilizing. The supply in Shandong is loose, while the northeast corn is strong. The auction of imported corn by CGS will continue on September 12. Corn prices may fluctuate strongly before the new grain is harvested and then weaken [7] Live Pig - Live pig futures were weakly fluctuating, and the spot price stopped falling. There is a large supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the transfer policy is tightening. The market is waiting for the results of the production - capacity regulation symposium [8] Egg - Egg futures were fluctuating with a slight reduction in positions, and the spot price rose. The industry has a high inventory problem, and the new - production pressure is expected to decrease by the end of the year. A long - position strategy for far - month contracts next year can be considered [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: MPOB report shows inventory growth to 2.2 million tons, and the unexpected decline in the first 10 - day export data brings negative pressure. There is a risk of the futures price falling below 4,400 ringgit and continuing to weaken. Domestically, it will first consider the support at 9,000 yuan. If Malaysian palm oil weakens, Dalian palm oil may follow a downward - fluctuating trend [1]. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the USDA report to lower the US soybean yield forecast, but the high - level of US soybean's excellent rate still maintains the expectation of a good harvest. The upcoming concentrated supply pressure will weigh on the market. Domestically, although the demand season is coming, the current oversupply of soybeans will keep the basis quotation in a narrow - range adjustment [1]. Meal Products - The high excellent rate of US soybeans suppresses the market's bullish sentiment. The strong supply and weak demand pattern of US soybeans continues. The relatively high Brazilian basis provides support for domestic costs. Recently, the domestic concern about future supply has eased, and the spot is loose. The increase in oil mills' soybean meal inventory and the lack of terminal purchasing enthusiasm suppress the basis. However, the cost support is strong, and the decline space of domestic meal products is limited [3]. Pig Industry - The slaughter of the breeding end is stabilizing, and the reluctance to sell at low prices has increased. The entry of secondary fattening in some areas provides support for the spot. The spot pressure has been gradually realized, and the price has fallen to a low - level range with limited further decline space. The demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can smoothly absorb the supply is uncertain. There may be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the double festivals. The market rebounded today due to the policy boost, but there is still potential for decline later, and the overall supply - demand pressure is large [6]. Corn Industry - In the Northeast, the purchase and sale are still dull, and the new season's corn has not been listed in large quantities, so the price remains firm. In North China, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price continues to run weakly. As corn is transitioning to the new season, the tight inventory of old - season corn and the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, along with the expected increase in production and the decrease in planting costs, put pressure on the price. On the demand side, the purchasing enthusiasm of deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. In the short - term, the supply and demand of corn are both weak, and the futures price is under pressure, maintaining a weak pattern in the medium - term [8]. Sugar Industry - The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of August increased year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio reached a new high, resulting in a large supply pressure on raw sugar and a price drop below 16 cents per pound. The overall supply pressure of raw sugar remains large, and it is expected to maintain a weak pattern. However, as the sugar price approaches the tax - included ethanol price, the room for the future increase of the sugar - alcohol ratio in Brazil is limited. The new sugar will be on the market in less than a month, and the pre - sale price is lower than the current market price. The futures price is weak, and the market sentiment is weak. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [12]. Cotton Industry - Some cotton ginning factories have started purchasing this week, but the pricing methods of cotton for wadding and spinning are different, and the new cotton purchase driver is still unclear. In the short - term, the upward and downward space of domestic cotton prices may be limited, and the downstream has little confidence in the traditional peak season. In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [13]. Egg Industry - The increase in traders' purchases in recent days may drive up the egg price. However, the high inventory and the impact of cold - stored eggs on the market will suppress the increase of the egg price. After the second and third batches of replenishment in the second half of the week, the demand may fade, and the risk of the egg price decline increases. The egg price may rebound in early September, but the overall increase is limited, maintaining a bearish view [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.15% to 8,570 yuan/ton, and the futures price of Y2601 decreased by 192 yuan [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 1.59% to 9,270 yuan/ton, and the futures price of P2601 decreased by 34 yuan [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.20% to 9,910 yuan/ton, and the futures price of OI601 decreased by 43 yuan [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: - The basis of soybean oil Y2601 increased by 92 yuan to 308 yuan [1]. - The basis of palm oil P2601 decreased by 116 yuan to - 176 yuan [1]. - The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil decreased by 40 yuan to 6 yuan, a decrease of 86.96% [1]. - The spot spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 50 yuan to - 700 yuan, an increase of 6.67% [1]. - The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil in 2509 increased by 149 yuan to 1,675 yuan, an increase of 9.76% [1]. Meal Products - **Price Changes**: - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,030 yuan/ton, and the futures price of M2601 decreased by 9 yuan to 3,066 yuan/ton [3]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan to 2,630 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 17 yuan to 2,533 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: - The basis of soybean meal M2601 increased by 9 yuan to - 36 yuan [3]. - The basis of rapeseed meal RM2601 increased by 27 yuan to 97 yuan [3]. - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal decreased by 7 yuan to 268 yuan, a decrease of 2.55% [3]. - The 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 14 yuan to 128 yuan, a decrease of 9.86% [3]. - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 10 yuan to 400 yuan, a decrease of 2.44% [3]. Pig Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of the main contract decreased by 85 yuan to - 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.95% [6]. - The spot price in Henan remained unchanged at 13,550 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan to 13,500 yuan/ton [6]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 879 to 147,686, a decrease of 0.59% [6]. - The weekly white - striped pork price increased by 0.1 yuan to 20.10 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.25% [6]. - The self - breeding profit increased by 20.4 yuan to 53 yuan/head, an increase of 63.31% [6]. Corn Industry - **Price Changes**: - The futures price of corn 2511 decreased by 17 yuan to 2,197 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% [8]. - The FOB price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 10 yuan to 2,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% [8]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The basis increased by 7 yuan to 113 yuan, an increase of 6.60% [8]. - The 11 - 3 spread of corn increased by 1 yuan to 11 yuan, an increase of 10.00% [8]. - The long - distance trade profit remained unchanged at 44 yuan [8]. Sugar Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 17 yuan to 5,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31% [12]. - The spot price in Kunming increased by 15 yuan to 5,835 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.26% [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The national cumulative sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 12.03% [12]. - The national cumulative sugar sales increased by 130 million tons to 955 million tons, an increase of 15.76% [12]. - The national industrial inventory decreased by 11.3 million tons to 96.89 million tons, a decrease of 10.44% [12]. Cotton Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 30 yuan to 13,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% [13]. - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 43 yuan to 15,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% [13]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The commercial inventory decreased by 33.85 million tons to 148.17 million tons, a decrease of 18.6% [13]. - The industrial inventory decreased by 3.19 million tons to 89.23 million tons, a decrease of 3.5% [13]. - The cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 9.86 million tons to 53.46 million tons, an increase of 22.6% [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of the egg 11 - contract decreased by 63 yuan to 3,020 yuan/500KG, a decrease of 2.04% [15]. - The egg - producing area price increased by 0.03 yuan to 3.44 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.79% [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The egg - chicken chick price remained unchanged at 3.00 yuan/feather [15]. - The culled - hen price decreased by 0.21 yuan to 4.62 yuan/jin, a decrease of 4.35% [15]. - The egg - feed ratio increased by 0.07 to 2.50, an increase of 2.88% [15].

农产品日报 | 2025-09-11 策略 中性 风险 政策变化 现货保持平稳，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3081元/吨，较前日变动+14元/吨，幅度+0.46%；菜粕2601合约2542元/吨，较前 日变动-8元/吨，幅度-0.31%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-31， 较前日变动-14；江苏地区豆粕现货2980元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-101，较前日变动-14；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2960元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M01-121，较前日变动-4。福建地区菜粕现货价格2650 元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差RM01+108，较前日变动-2。 近期市场资讯，9月9日，巴西全国谷物出口商协会公布，巴西9月份大豆出口量预计升至743万吨，而前一周预计 为675万吨。9月巴西豆粕出口预计为211万吨，前一周预计为194万吨。9月巴西玉米出口预计达到696万吨，前一 周预计为637万吨。 市场分析 当前美豆生长情况良好，优良率处于历史高位，Profarmer本年度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market for various agricultural products is in a state of oscillation. Corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs are all expected to show an oscillatory trend [1][2]. - For corn, the market is affected by factors such as the increase in new grain listings and the transition of old - grain prices to new - grain prices. In the short - term, the 11 - month contract is expected to continue to adjust, and in the medium - term, it is judged to be weak due to expected high yields and lower costs [1]. - Regarding soybean meal, the international market has changes in supply and demand expectations, and the domestic market has sufficient spot goods and stable import costs. Without significant driving factors, the price will oscillate, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - In the case of oils, the international market has a negative impact on prices, but there are also some positive factors such as potential bio - diesel policy changes. The market is currently oscillating, and strategies such as increasing volatility or selling put options are recommended [1]. - For eggs, the spot price has a certain increase, but the rebound is limited. The future egg price will be affected by the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in the market and supply [1][2]. - For pigs, the futures price is oscillating strongly, while the spot price is weak. The short - term policy boost is limited, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment on futures prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: The main 2511 contract of corn decreased in position and price on Wednesday. The trading enthusiasm of both long and short sides has cooled. As the listing volume of new corn in western Liaoning increases, the price returns to range fluctuations. The old grain in the Northeast is still strong, and the price in North China is weakly stable. The price in the sales area has a local increase. Technically, the 11 - month contract is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term and be weak in the medium - term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell on Wednesday. Analysts expect a decrease in US soybean yield, export, and inventory. The strengthening of US soybean oil is due to potential bio - diesel policy changes. The domestic spot price of soybean meal oscillates, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell for the second consecutive day due to the decline of related oils and weak exports. The MPOB August supply - demand report is slightly bearish. The domestic oil futures price is weak. The market is oscillating, and strategies such as increasing volatility or selling put options are recommended [1]. - **Eggs**: The main 2510 and 2511 contracts of eggs showed a weak trend on Wednesday. The spot price increased slightly. The future egg price will be affected by the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in the market and supply [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The pig futures price oscillated strongly on Wednesday, while the spot price was weak. The short - term policy boost is limited, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment on futures prices [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Malaysia's sustainable palm oil certification (MSPO) has been recognized by the EU, which helps relevant enterprises comply with EU deforestation regulations [3]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 10 decreased compared with the same period last month, with a decrease of 1.2% - 8.4% according to different survey agencies [3]. - The MPOB August supply - demand report shows that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons, the production increased by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, and the export decreased by 0.29% to 1.32 million tons [3]. - In the 36th week of 2025 (September 1 - 5), the average weekly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces and municipalities increased by 2.0% month - on - month, decreased by 29.7% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.8 percentage points compared with the previous week. The price first rose and then fell during the week [4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission plan to hold a symposium on pig production capacity regulation on September 16, inviting 25 enterprises to participate [5]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is provided [6][7][8][12][14][15][16][18][19][25]

产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 朱迪 Z0015979 | 豆粕 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 现值 | 削值 | 流改 | 张跃留 | | 现价 | 江苏豆相 | 3030 | 3030 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | M2601 | 3066 | 3075 | -g | -0.29% | | 基差 | M2601 | -36 | -45 | ਭੇ | 20.00% | | 现货基差报价 | 江苏现货基差 | m2601-100 | m2601-100 | - | r | | 品面进口榨利 | 美湾船期 | - | ಪ | - | . | | 盘面进口榨利 | 巴西10月船期 | 36 | રિકે | -27 | -42.9% | | 仓单 | | 25915 | 25915 | 0 | 0.096 | | 菜粕 | | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前信 | 涨跌 | 旅鉄幅 | | 现价 | 江苏米相 | 2630 | 2620 | 10 | 0.38% | | 期价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with significant drops in oil and fat prices, a decline in corn prices, and varied trends in other products such as eggs, apples, and others [1]. - Different factors influence each product, including supply - demand dynamics, external market news, and seasonal factors [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Oil and fat prices drop significantly, with palm oil leading the decline due to negative data in the Malaysian MPOB monthly report and the fall of US soybean oil. Corn prices decline further as new corn is listed, and egg price rebound lacks sustainability [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil drops significantly, affected by negative news of US soybean oil and the negative data in the Malaysian MPOB report. The inventory in Malaysia increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons in August. The strategy is to close long positions and lightly short - sell, with support at 9236 and resistance at 9300 [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil drops significantly, dragged down by the fall of US soybean oil and sufficient domestic supply. As of September 5, the inventory was 1.2388 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The strategy is to close long positions and lightly short - sell, with support at 8240 and resistance at 8300 [3]. 3.2.3 Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs drops significantly, due to high egg - laying hen inventory. The strategy is to close long positions and lightly short - sell, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3040 [5]. 3.2.4 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples rebounds slightly after a sharp fall, supported by short - covering. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 8000 and resistance at 8166 [7]. 3.2.5 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates fluctuates narrowly. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 10910 and resistance at 11090 [9]. 3.2.6 Sugar - The main 2601 contract of Zheng sugar rebounds at a low level, driven by the rebound of the overseas market. The strategy is to hold short positions for now, with support at 5503 and resistance at 5560 [12]. 3.2.7 Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn drops continuously, pressured by the listing of new corn. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 2188 and resistance at 2213 [13][15]. 3.2.8 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton first declines and then rises, but the weakness remains. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 13790 and resistance at 14000 [16][19]. 3.2.9 Live Pigs - The main 2511 contract of live pigs rebounds at a low level, but the weakness remains. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 13200 and resistance at 13400 [20]. 3.2.10 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal fluctuates downward. The strategy is short - term trading before the release of major report data, with support at 3050 and resistance at 3080 [22].