2025 年 06 月 05 日 铝：震荡横盘 氧化铝：偏弱运行 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20075 | 215 | રૂટ | 145 | -455 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20110 | ー | ー | । | । | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2487 | 17 | 4 | 17 | -152 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 160576 | -22947 | -39346 | ૨૦૭૨૦ | -24888 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 189969 | -1175 | -12504 | 1473 | -23438 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 179 ...

智通财经6月4日电，美联储库克表示，美联储在人工智能（AI）方面的工作非常有限且谨慎。美联储 必须对利率"所有可能性"持开放态度。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian President Lula has expressed concerns that interest rates are excessively high, which may hinder economic growth and investment [1] Group 1: Economic Implications - High interest rates could lead to reduced consumer spending and lower business investments, potentially stalling economic recovery [1] - The government is advocating for lower interest rates to stimulate economic activity and support growth [1] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - President Lula is urging the central bank to reconsider its monetary policy stance and lower interest rates to foster a more favorable economic environment [1] - There is a call for a balance between controlling inflation and promoting economic growth through more accessible credit [1]

但美联储其他官员们的讲话则释放了最新的政策信号。在此前的公开讲话中，美国芝加哥联储主席奥斯 坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）表示，如果特朗普政府的关税措施最终没有最初公布的那样激进，那 么美联储的政策利率在未来15个月内"很可能会明显降低"。美联储理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）表 示，假设有效关税税率接近较低关税情形，潜在通胀继续朝着2%的目标取得进展，劳动力市场保持稳 健，将支持今年晚些时候实施"好消息式"的降息。 目前，美联储正处于"观望期"，在等待更多通胀和增长数据以决定是否在下半年降息。有分析称，鲍威 尔此番"保持沉默"，可能是为了避免在关键数据发布前提前影响市场预期。 美联储的下次议息会议将在6月17日至18日举行。 来源：本网综述 （原标题：美联储主席最新发声：重申全球经济研究重要性，对货币政策预期"保持沉默"） 经济观察网讯 当地时间6月2日，美国华盛顿，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在美联储国 际金融司75周年纪念会议上讲话。 鲍威尔表示，美联储国际金融司在拉美债务危机、2008年金融危机、新冠疫情期间扮演了关键角色，并 通过开发复杂模型 ...

Core Insights - The latest PCE data indicates a slowdown in consumer spending in April 2023, aligning with a moderate inflation rate, suggesting a potential economic deceleration [1][2]. Inflation Metrics - The PCE price index for April showed a year-over-year increase of 2.1%, down from 2.3% previously and below the expected 2.2%. Month-over-month, it rose by 0.1%, consistent with prior expectations [2][3]. - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.5% year-over-year, marking the lowest level since March 2021, and was revised from a previous estimate of 2.7% [2][3]. Consumer Spending and Income - Real consumer spending adjusted for inflation increased by only 0.1% in April, following a 0.7% rise in March. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.2% month-over-month, down from 0.7% [2][3]. - Nominal wages and salaries continued to grow, increasing by 0.5% for the third consecutive month, while the savings rate reached 4.9%, the highest in nearly a year [2][3]. Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed significantly by 46% in April to $87.6 billion, with imports decreasing by $68.4 billion to $276.1 billion and exports increasing by $6.3 billion to $188.5 billion [8]. - The Trump administration is considering a "Tariff B Plan" to impose tariffs of up to 15% on a wide range of goods, which could impact consumer spending and inflation [6][9]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark overnight interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% since December 2022, with market expectations indicating a potential rate cut of 50 basis points by the end of the year [11][12]. - Economists predict that the negative effects of tariffs may become evident in the June data, influencing the Fed's future decisions on interest rates [10][15].

Group 1 - The Trump administration's tariffs faced legal challenges, with a federal appeals court temporarily halting a lower court's ruling that blocked several tariff orders [2] - The U.S. stock market showed positive performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.28%, Nasdaq up 0.39%, and S&P 500 up 0.4% [3][5] - Major Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increasing by 1.44% [4] Group 2 - The White House indicated that a judge's ruling on tariffs would be overturned, and multiple trade agreements are nearing completion [8] - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee suggested that if trade policies revert to pre-tariff conditions, there could be room for interest rate cuts [9][10] - Goldman Sachs predicted gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-next year, viewing gold as a safer hedge compared to Bitcoin [11] Group 3 - Nvidia's CEO plans to sell up to 6 million shares, potentially worth around $809 million based on recent closing prices [12] - Dell Technologies saw a significant stock increase after reporting Q1 revenue of $23.38 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [13] - Hyundai is considering a 1% price increase on all its U.S. products to mitigate the impact of Trump’s tariffs [14] Group 4 - NIO reported Q1 revenue of 25.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a delivery volume of 92,864 vehicles, up 15.5% [17] - JD.com and Xiaohongshu launched a strategic cooperation plan to enhance business growth for brands and merchants [18] - Tesla plans to deliver its first autonomous Model Y vehicles in June, ahead of schedule [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of England's interest rates are primarily influenced by bond issuance rather than tariffs and trade [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.25%, with a cautious tone in its statement, and the decision was made with a vote of 5 in favor and 1 against [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that tariffs will only cause temporary fluctuations in U.S. inflation, estimating that core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation will rise to 3.6% by the end of 2025, with a cooling labor market and wage growth dropping from over 4% in 2022 to 2.9% currently [1] - The Australian Federal Bank expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cautiously lower interest rates further, with a 60% probability of a 25 basis point cut in July, down from 70% prior to data release [2] Group 2 - Westpac Bank anticipates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lower the OCR one to two more times before the current cycle ends, with one expected cut in the third quarter, adjusting the highest rate forecast for August to 3% [2] - Goldman Sachs Asset Management analysts believe that market pessimism regarding long-term U.S. Treasury bonds is exaggerated, suggesting investors increase duration as the yield premium on long-term U.S. Treasuries is expected to rise [2] - Analysts note weak demand for Japanese government bonds, leading to rising yields on 30-year bonds, which may impact the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to rise from 2.6% in March to 3.6%, driven by rising import prices, increased domestic production costs, and producers raising prices [1][2] - Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that France's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.6% year-on-year in May 2025, lower than April's 0.9%, indicating a slowdown in inflation due to declining service and energy price increases [2] - Nomura Securities suggests that the Japanese Ministry of Finance may shift to short-term borrowing from the third quarter, reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds, which is a response to the recent surge in ultra-long-term government bond yields [3] Group 2 - PIMCO anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may implement multiple rate cuts over the next year, lowering the official cash rate from 3.85% to approximately 2.75% to achieve a neutral rate level [1] - Société Générale indicates that South Korea's inflation rate in April was 2.1%, close to the long-term target of 2.0%, supporting the need for the Bank of Korea to adopt a monetary easing policy [3] - The European Central Bank is expected to lower rates again in June, with market expectations for a 25 basis point cut to 2.0%, as France's inflation remains below the ECB's mid-term target of 2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, indicated that interest rates are influenced by various factors, with the market generally perceiving rising rates as a reflection of concerns regarding the country's fiscal condition [1] Group 1 - Interest rates in Japan are affected by multiple factors [1] - The market's perception of rising interest rates is linked to worries about the national fiscal situation [1]