美联储柯林斯表示关税将在下半年推动通胀上升，核心通胀率预计到年底将维持在约3%；巴尔金认为 关税将带来更多的物价压力，但是物价压力不会像2022年那么显著。最新CME"美联储观察"数据显 示，7月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%，到9月维持利率不变的概率为 45.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为53.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.4%。 【昨日白银行情解析】 国际白银周二（7月15日）日K收跌，截至收盘，报37.70美元/盎司，下跌1.13%，日内最高上探38.39美 元/盎司，最低触及37.56美元/盎司。 | 日期 | 净持仓量（吨） | 净持仓量（盎司） | 总价值(万美元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-15 | 14856.02 | 477632239.80 | 18270582220 | | 2025-07-14 | 14966.24 | 481175670.60 | 18760075094 | （注：白银etf持仓增加，表明买盘增加，市场看涨白银的情绪升温，利多银价；白银etf持仓减少，表 明卖盘增加，市场看跌白银 ...

洛根周二表示："综合来看，这表明当前的基本情况是，货币政策需要再维持一段时间，以使通胀率稳 定地回到目标水平——而在这种基本情况下，即便采取适度紧缩的政策，我们也能实现充分就业。" 智通财经APP获悉，达拉斯联储洛根表示，尽管政策制定者可能仍需将利率维持一段时间不变以彻底抑 制通胀，但也不排除他们可能会转而采取降息措施，以防通胀和劳动力市场出现恶化。 美联储官员今年一直未调整利率，采取了"观望"的策略以评估关税对物价的影响。但政策制定者们对于 今年剩余时间的行动方案存在分歧。 6 月份，这 19 名官员的预测中值显示，今年将有两次降息。其中，9 人则预计只会降息一次或者根本不 降息。此次会议的纪要显示，这种分歧主要是由于对关税对通胀影响的不同预期所导致的。 但洛根在担任达拉斯联储主席的三年任期内一直对通货膨胀问题持谨慎态度，而此次她也暗示了这样一 种可能的情况：即央行可能需要提前降低利率。洛根表示："也有可能是通胀率降低以及劳动力市场走 弱的某种组合，会促使利率很快下调。" 周二早些时候公布的CPI数据显示，6 月份核心CPI涨幅低于预期——这是连续第五个月出现这种意外情 况。但数据中也显示，企业正越来越多地 ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 16 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货7月15日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 120.200 | 120.510 | 120.760 | 120.770 | 0.560 | 0.47 | ...

资料显示，景顺长城安悦180天持有期债基拟任基金经理米良，拥有11年证券、基金从业经验，6.6年投 资经验，投资风格积极稳健，对资金面敏感，擅长短端利率机会把握，交易灵活果断。米良管理过包括 货币基金、指数型债基、主动管理纯债等多种产品，其中代表作景顺长城30天滚动持有，自2022年4月 27日成立以来，净值增长率为9.06%（同期基准6.99%）。值得一提的是，该基金业绩走势稳健，根据 定期报告显示，自成立以来的每个自然半年度，均为正净值增长率，并且最大回撤仅-0.20%，远低于同 期短债基金指数（-0.55%）。（数据来源：基金业绩来自景顺长城，经托管行复核；基准、指数、最大 回撤来自Wind，截至2025/5/31） 展望未来，米良表示，基于当前经济基本面，货币政策预计维持宽松，叠加财政端保持克制、美联储降 息概率较大等因素，对债市保持较乐观判断。同时关注利率是否会下行过快以及权益转暖对债市的压 制，将重点关注高弹性、高流动性品种，保持组合较好的流动性，方便灵活调整方向，转债方面，或将 具备结构性机会。 今年以来，利率快速下行后在低位震荡，截至2025年7月14日，最新10年期国债收益率为1.68%。当 ...

从具体品类来看，主要依赖进口的家具、玩具、服装、鞋类和体育用品价格均出现上涨。其中，美国家 具价格环比上涨1%，玩具价格环比上涨1.8%。 美联社报道认为，6月份的CPI数据表明由关税引发的通胀开始显现，这一数据也使得美联储更有可能 维持当前利率不变。 中新社华盛顿7月15日电 (记者 陈孟统)美国劳工部15日发布数据称，美国6月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同 比上涨2.7%，环比上涨0.3%。 美国6月的通胀数据创造了今年2月以来的最大同比涨幅。上述数据也略高于市场普遍预期的2.6%。 美国6月CPI涨幅扩大主要受当月能源价格上涨影响，能源价格环比上涨0.9%，而前值为-1.0%。6月 份，美国汽油和燃油价格指数均"由跌转涨"，环比上涨1.0%。能源服务以及电力价格也延续了上个月的 上涨势头。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，美国6月核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.9%。 不过，白宫驳斥了"6月CPI数据显示关税产生负面影响"的说法。其在15日发表声明指出，尽管进口汽车 被征收了25%的关税、钢铝关税高达50%，但美国新车价格仍出现下降。 美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体表示，美国的"物价很低"，美联储应该 ...

美联储洛根：通胀趋缓、劳动力市场疲软可能会促使利率"相当快"地下降。 ...

之前曾对通胀率低迷感到失望。 基本情境要求继续实施限制性政策。 美国达拉斯联储主席Logan：支持维持利率不变，以继续为通胀降温。 ...

Core Insights - Construction Bank has adjusted its deposit rates, leading to discussions among depositors about wealth preservation strategies in a low-interest environment [2][4] - The new rates show a decline across all deposit terms, with significant reductions in three-year large certificates of deposit [4][7] Deposit Rate Adjustments - The three-year large certificate of deposit rate has decreased by 35 basis points compared to the same period last year, falling below 1.5% [4] - Current deposit rates are as follows: - Demand deposits: 0.05% (annual interest of only 100 yuan for 200,000 yuan) - Regular time deposits: - 3 months: 0.65% (325 yuan) - 6 months: 0.85% (850 yuan) - 1 year: 0.95% (1900 yuan) - 2 years: 1.05% (4200 yuan) - 3 years: 1.25% (7500 yuan) - 5 years: 1.3% (13000 yuan) - Large certificates of deposit (starting from 200,000 yuan): - 1 year: 1.2% (2400 yuan) - 3 years: 1.55% (9300 yuan) [4] Deposit Strategy Analysis - **Liquidity Priority Plan**: Dividing 200,000 yuan into smaller time deposits (5,000 yuan each for 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years) yields an estimated total return of 2275 yuan, allowing for flexibility but risking reduced returns if funds are withdrawn early [5] - **Maximizing Returns Plan**: Investing the entire 200,000 yuan into a three-year large certificate of deposit results in a total return of 9300 yuan, averaging 3100 yuan per year, but carries high risk if funds are withdrawn early [6] - **Laddered Combination Plan**: Allocating 200,000 yuan into different terms (5,000 yuan for 1 year, 100,000 yuan for 3 years, and 5,000 yuan for 5 years) is expected to yield 7475 yuan, balancing liquidity and long-term returns [8] Investment Strategies in Low-Interest Environment - Diversification is crucial as relying solely on bank deposits is insufficient for achieving ideal returns in a declining interest rate cycle [9] - Options include: - Large certificates of deposit: Caution is advised due to product scarcity and interest rate inversion risks [9] - Deposits in small and medium banks: Higher yields come with increased risks, including credit risk [9] - Alternative investments: Government bonds offer higher rates than large certificates of deposit, while money market funds provide good liquidity [9] Common Questions Addressed - Longer deposit terms do not always guarantee higher interest rates, as seen with the minimal difference between three-year and five-year rates [9] - Early withdrawals are calculated at demand deposit rates [10] - The value of large certificates of deposit compared to regular time deposits depends on individual financial plans [11] Conclusion - In a low-interest environment, the potential returns on a principal of 200,000 yuan are limited, necessitating careful selection of deposit strategies and exploration of diversified investment options [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of trading ability in bond investment as the market transitions into a low-interest-rate environment and the era of credit expansion comes to an end [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Framework Characteristics - The investment framework of Chen Sixing is characterized by a strong ability to judge investor behavior and sentiment, utilizing trading spreads to gauge market emotions [3][16]. - Chen identifies a single main contradiction in the market at each stage, which is crucial for refined trading strategies [3][18]. - The framework includes flexible portfolio management, adjusting bond duration exposure based on the characteristics of equity assets [3][35]. Group 2: Career Development and Learning - Over 15 years, Chen has developed her investment philosophy through various roles, learning to balance profit maximization with risk management across different investment types [6][11]. - The transition from proprietary trading to pension fund investment allowed her to establish a macroeconomic cycle and asset allocation system [9][10]. - Joining Huatai Fund introduced the necessity of managing liabilities and liquidity constraints in investment decisions [10][11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies - The bond market has shifted from being influenced by macroeconomic data to being driven by micro-level factors such as trading structures and investor behavior [13][14]. - Chen's investment framework has evolved to incorporate a micro-level database for assessing investor sentiment, moving beyond traditional macroeconomic indicators [14][30]. - The identification of the main contradiction in the market is essential for forming effective trading strategies, with a focus on the most impactful data at any given time [19][20][30]. Group 4: Portfolio Management and Risk Control - The management of bond portfolios requires an understanding of the correlation between equity styles and bond performance, leading to differentiated management strategies [32][35]. - Chen emphasizes the importance of adjusting bond positions based on the performance of equity assets, particularly during periods of market volatility [36][37]. - The team at Huatai Fund operates with a specialized division of labor, enhancing collaboration and efficiency in investment strategies [39][41]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The outlook for bond assets remains optimistic, with expectations of continued downward pressure on interest rates, although the absolute returns may be lower due to increased market volatility [44][45]. - The market is currently in a phase of re-evaluating lower funding costs, with future directions uncertain until new signals emerge [45].

当地时间7月15日，美国财长贝森特表示，下一任美联储主席的遴选程序已正式启动。这是特朗普政府首次明 确宣布这一进展。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普加大了对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评力度。当地时间7月14日，特朗普再次炮轰鲍威 尔是"榆木脑袋"，并表示，他认为利率应该低于1%。 目前市场正高度关注下一任美联储的潜在人选。据美媒援引知情人士的话报道，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文 ·哈塞特正成为下任美联储主席的主要候选人。 下任美联储主席的遴选程序已启动 下一任美联储主席的争夺战进入白热化。 当地时间7月15日，贝森特在接受彭博电视采访时表示："（下一任美联储主席）遴选程序已经正式启动。美联 储曾犯过重大预测错误，现在可能就是如此。美联储内外有很多优秀的候选人，我们将拭目以待，看看进展如 何。" 贝森特指出，这是美国总统特朗普的决定，一切将按照他的速度推进。贝森特会参与关于美联储主席人选的决 策过程。 对于鲍威尔卸任美联储主席后可能继续留在美联储理事会的猜测，贝森特警告称，这种安排会"令市场感到困 惑"，并指出"美联储主席通常在卸任时会一并辞去理事职位"。 这意味着，一旦换帅落地，不排除鲍威尔将完全退出美联储系统，以避免未来 ...